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Series:OSW Studies

Result 21-40 of 123
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At crossroads. Current problems of Russia’s gas sector
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At crossroads. Current problems of Russia’s gas sector

At crossroads. Current problems of Russia’s gas sector

Author(s): Szymon Kardaś / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia;Russian Federation (RF);gas sector;energy security;energy sector;

The Russian gas sector has found itself in a difficult situation. The mounting challenges and problems are primarily the consequence of the sector’s politicisation, the growing rivalry between Gazprom and the so-called independent gas producers, changes on external gas markets and the absence of reforms, which have been repeatedly postponed. Because Gazprom serves as an internal and foreign policy instrument and a source of revenues for the Russian elite, economic calculations or the interests of the sector as a whole have often been ignored by the state. This has led to problems in the gas production sector and challenges in external markets. // The purpose of this paper is to present the current condition of the Russian gas sector and its prospects. To a limited extent, the paper also discusses the wider context of the changes that occurred in the Russian gas sector in the years 2000-2016.

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Between co-operation and membership. Sweden and Finland’s relations with NATO
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Between co-operation and membership. Sweden and Finland’s relations with NATO

Between co-operation and membership. Sweden and Finland’s relations with NATO

Author(s): Justyna Gotkowska,Piotr Szymański / Language(s): English

Keywords: NATO; Sweden; Baltic Sea Region (BSR); Security and Defence Policy;

Sweden and Finland’s membership in NATO would significantly improve the level of security in the Baltic Sea region in the long-term by changing the politico-military imbalance that is currently in Russia’s favour. However, it is unlikely that Stockholm and Helsinki will change their non-alignment policy in the coming years. They will rather focus on enhancing politico-military co-operation with NATO. This has grown in importance to both countries in recent years in line with rising uncertainty in the region. The Swedish and Finnish wish for more substance in their military relations with NATO will however be met with increasing limitations as allied activity in the Baltic Sea region is focusing on collective defence and the two countries are not member states. // Despite the positive effect Sweden and Finland’s cooperation with NATO exerts on the region’s security, it also has negative implications. It does not eliminate the uncertainty about the scope of the two countries’ co-operation with the alliance in the case of a military conflict. It offers Stockholm an illusory sense of security, slowing down the pace of investments in defence; and for Helsinki it is rather an element of its deterrence policy towards Russia than a genuinely considered alternative.

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Crisis in Russia. The degradation of the model of economic governance
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Crisis in Russia. The degradation of the model of economic governance

Crisis in Russia. The degradation of the model of economic governance

Author(s): Maria Domańska / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russian Federation (RF);Russian economy;Economic crisis;Recession;Russia;

The present economic crisis in Russia is conditioned above all by political factors. The crisis is proof of a serious dysfunction of the model of economic governance which is subordinated to the government elite’s individual interests. Because oil prices were at a high level until 2014, this model could work at a relatively low social cost. // However, now that the oil prices are remaining at a low level and given the lack of internal sources of long-term economic growth, the country is facing the risk of a long-lasting stagnation. It will lead to an inevitable degradation of the Russian economy and, above all, to a deterioration of the Russian public’s living standards. The government still does not intend to launch any structural reforms; its goal is to preserve the present system of control over the political and public sphere. // Is a political crisis possible in Russia, given these conditions? Should the government be wary of a ‘colour revolution’ or a revolt among the elite?

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Eurasian integration. Russia's attempt at the economic unification of the Post-Soviet area.
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Eurasian integration. Russia's attempt at the economic unification of the Post-Soviet area.

Eurasian integration. Russia's attempt at the economic unification of the Post-Soviet area.

Author(s): Iwona Wiśniewska / Language(s): English

Keywords: Vladimir Putin;the Customs Union; post-soviet space;the Common Economic Space (CES);CIS;

In 2009, Vladimir Putin, the then Russian prime minister, gave impetus to the establishment of closer relations within what was then a still narrow group of three countries: Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus. Russia was determined in embarking on the implementation of the principles of the Customs Union among these three states and, since 2012, within the Common Economic Space as well. This process of integration is intended to bring about the introduction of ‘four freedoms’ in this area: the free movement of goods, services, capital and labour. From Moscow’s point of view, building up such integration structures is especially necessary in order to counteract the economic expansion of the European Union and China. It also feels it is important to take measures against the loosening of the bonds between the CIS countries and Russia. At the same time, close co-operation is expected to guarantee for Russia that the strong politico-economic influences in this area will be maintained. Despite the numerous limitations of the integration process, such as the small number of the participating states or limited progress in implementing the CES, this is still the most advanced integration programme in the region seen since the collapse of the USSR. Progress in putting the rules of the Customs Union into practice can be seen as a success for Moscow. In turn, the formation of the CES is still at an early stage, and it is difficult to determine at this point to what extent the three countries will harmonise their markets.

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China vs. Central Asia. The achievements of the past two decades
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China vs. Central Asia. The achievements of the past two decades

China vs. Central Asia. The achievements of the past two decades

Author(s): Aleksandra Jarosiewicz,Krzysztof Strachota / Language(s): English

Keywords: Central Asia;China;Beijing;People's Republic of China;

The collapse of the USSR brought about conditions conducive to the dynamic development of relations between Central Asia and China. These relations have evolved from deep mistrust to the continually growing Chinese presence primarily in the region’s economy but also increasingly in its politics. Central Asia is playing a growing role in those areas of the economy which China sees as strategic (in particular in energy and communications). China’s ambitions and capabilities with regard to new areas and its geopolitical competitors are also being tested here. For the time being, it can be said that China has achieved vast success: its offer is appealing for the region, and Beijing has outpaced its Western rivals and has seriously challenged Russia’s position in the region. It remains, however, an open question whether China will be able to maintain and secure its present achievements and trends, which will be a serious challenge given the eternal instability in the region and Russia’s reintegration ambitions.

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China vs. Central Asia. The achievements of the past two decades
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China vs. Central Asia. The achievements of the past two decades

Chiny a Azja Centralna. Dorobek dwudziestolecia

Author(s): Aleksandra Jarosiewicz,Krzysztof Strachota / Language(s): Polish

Keywords: Central Asia;China;People's Republic of China;Beijing;

Rozpad ZSRR stworzył warunki do dynamicznego rozwoju relacji między Azją Centralną a Chinami. Ewoluowały one od daleko posuniętej nieufności po stale rosnącą obecność Chin, przede wszystkim w gospodarce, ale również w coraz większym stopniu w polityce regionu. Azja Centralna odgrywa coraz większą rolę w strategicznych dla Chin kwestiach gospodarczych(zwłaszcza energetycznych, ale również komunikacyjnych). Tu także testowane są ambicje i możliwości Chin wobec stosunkowo nowych obszarów i wobec geopolitycznych konkurentów. Jak dotąd można mówić o ogromnym sukcesie Chin: ich oferta jest atrakcyjna dla regionu, Pekin zdystansował rywali zachodnich i poważnie zagroził pozycji Rosji w regionie. Otwartą kwestią pozostaje jednak zdolność Chin do utrwalenia i zabezpieczenia obecnych osiągnięć i trendów, co wobec chronicznej niestabilności regionu, ale także ambicji reintegracyjnych Rosji będzie poważnym wyzwaniem.

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Ever further from Moscow. Russia's stance on Central Asia
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Ever further from Moscow. Russia's stance on Central Asia

Ever further from Moscow. Russia's stance on Central Asia

Author(s): Wojciech Górecki / Language(s): English

Keywords: The post-Soviet countries;Central Asia;the Eurasian Union;Russian-Chinese relations;

The post-Soviet countries of Central Asia are important for Moscow as a potential source of danger; as a site of its relationships with China, the West and the Islamic world; and not least as a space covered by Russia’s integration initiatives. Since the collapse of the USSR, Russian influence in this region has undergone a far-reaching erosion. The Kremlin’s consistent actions to build up the Eurasian Union, as well as the threat of destabilisation in region after the ISAF operation in Afghanistan winds up in 2014, have slowed down this process, although it is unlikely to be reversed. The current ‘state of possession’ (i.e. the instruments and assets which Russia possesses) still ensures Moscow a minimum level of control over the region, which means that the activity of other global players is limited. This situation may change in tandem with a rise in their ambitions, especially with the possible involvement of China in the field of ‘hard’ security.

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Ever further from Moscow. Russia's stance on Central Asia
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Ever further from Moscow. Russia's stance on Central Asia

Coraz dalej od Moskwy. Rosja wobec Azji Centralnej

Author(s): Wojciech Górecki / Language(s): Polish

Keywords: The post-Soviet countries; Central Asia;Russian-Chinese relations;the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU).;

Kraje poradzieckiej Azji Centralnej są dla Moskwy istotne jako potencjalne źródło zagrożeń, jako obszar jej relacji z Chinami, Zachodem i światem islamu, wreszcie jako przestrzeń objęta rosyjskimi inicjatywami integracyjnymi. Po rozpadzie ZSRR rosyjskie wpływy w tym regionie uległy daleko idącej erozji. Podjęcie przez Kreml konsekwentnych działań na rzecz budowy Unii Eurazjatyckiej, a także groźba destabilizacji regionu po zakończeniu w 2014 roku operacji ISAF w Afganistanie, przyhamowały ten proces, choć jego odwrócenie nie wydaje się realne. Obecny „stan posiadania” (instrumenty i aktywa, jakimi dysponuje Rosja) zapewnia jeszcze Moskwie minimalny poziom kontroli nad regionem, czemu sprzyja ograniczona aktywność innych światowych graczy. Sytuacja może ulec zmianie wraz ze wzrostem ich ambicji, zwłaszcza z ewentualnym zaangażowaniem Chin w obszarze „twardego” bezpieczeństwa.

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Federation without federalism. Relations between Moscow and the regions
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Federation without federalism. Relations between Moscow and the regions

Federacja bez federalizmu. Stosunki Moskwa - regiony

Author(s): Jadwiga Rogoża / Language(s): Polish

Keywords: the Russian Federation;national identity;regional elites;political activity;

Regiony Federacji Rosyjskiej są niezwykle zróżnicowane geograficznie i ekonomicznie oraz pod względem tożsamości narodowej, świadomości obywatelskiej i aktywności politycznej. Mamy w istocie do czynienia z „Rosją kilku prędkości”: obok regionów postindustrialnych, które cechuje nie tylko wyższy poziom życia, ale i koncentracja kapitału społecznego i zapotrzebowanie na pluralizm w polityce, występują regiony niezamożne, inercyjne, uzależnione od dotacji z centrum. // W wyniku prowadzonej od 2000 roku polityki centralizacji zakres autonomii regionów został radykalnie zredukowany. Polityka ta uderza w samodzielność i efektywność kierujących nimi elit i utrudnia regionom czerpanie korzyści ze swoich przewag konkurencyjnych (zasobów, lokalizacji), a jej wymiernym skutkiem jest stale spadająca liczba regionów-donatorów. Obecny model promuje postawę regionu jako biernego petenta, któremu łatwiej jest zabiegać o wsparcie centrum w zamian za demonstrację lojalności, niż wprowadzać skomplikowane zmiany systemowe sprzyjające rozwojowi regionu. Kontrola Moskwy nad regionami – polityczna, ekonomiczna i administracyjna – jest obecnie tak gruntowna, że stoi w sprzeczności z formalnie istniejącym w Rosji ustrojem federalnym.

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An essential partner in the background. Europe in China's policy during the rule of Xi Jinping
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An essential partner in the background. Europe in China's policy during the rule of Xi Jinping

An essential partner in the background. Europe in China's policy during the rule of Xi Jinping

Author(s): Marcin Kaczmarski / Language(s): English

Keywords: China;the EU;bilateral relations;the European Union;Chinese economy; economic and financial system;global governance;

Chinese elites do not treat Europe as an equal partner and are convinced that China holds the upper hand over Europe. They see a growing asymmetry in bilateral relations. China’s sense of its own potential is boosted by internal divisions within the European Union. At the same time, Europe is China’s key economic partner and an ‘economic pillar’ supporting China’s growth on the international stage. Beijing strives to maintain Europe’s open attitude towards the Chinese economy, in particular its exports, technology transfer to China, location of investments and diversification of China’s currency reserves. Cooperation with Europe and support from Europe are necessary to enable China to improve its position in the international economic and financial system, mainly in order to legitimise China’s actions in the area of multilateralism and global governance. Similarly, Beijing attaches great importance to maintaining Europe’s non-involvement in two issues: China’s core interests and Chinese-American relations.

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Painful adaptation. The social consequences of the crisis in Russia
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Painful adaptation. The social consequences of the crisis in Russia

Bolesna adaptacja. Społeczne skutki kryzysu w Rosji

Author(s): Jan Strzelecki / Language(s): Polish

Keywords: Russian economy;economic crises;Russia;social costs;

Rosyjska gospodarka znajduje się w kryzysie, który dla społeczeństwa okazał się szczególnie dotkliwy. Ze względu na wysoką inflację i spadek płac realnych kryzys pogorszył sytuację materialną wszystkich klas społecznych. Uderzył w bytowe podstawy najaktywniejszych politycznie segmentów wielkomiejskiej klasy średniej. Dla dużej części społeczeństwa oznacza trwałą degradację i konieczność koncentracji na fizycznym przetrwaniu w warunkach biedy i ubóstwa. Pogorszenie nastrojów społecznych, które nastąpiło wskutek kryzysu, powoduje niekiedy powstawanie punktowych protestów o podłożu bytowym. W większości społeczeństwo nie manifestuje jednak niezadowolenia, lecz adaptuje się do nowych warunków, koncentrując się na indywidualnych strategiach przetrwania poprzez ograniczenie konsumpcji. Taktyka władz mająca ograniczać prawdopodobieństwo kolejnych protestów polega przede wszystkim na wzmacnianiu aparatu represji i państwowej propagandy, co przyczynia się do atomizacji społeczeństwa i utrudnia jego samoorganizację.

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A quarter-century of independent Ukraine. Dimensions of transformation
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A quarter-century of independent Ukraine. Dimensions of transformation

Ćwierćwiecze niepodległej Ukrainy. Wymiary transformacji

Author(s): Tadeusz A. Olszański / Language(s): Polish

Keywords: Ukraine;independence;transition to market economy;Ukrainian political system;Ukrainian reforms;

24 sierpnia 1991 roku Rada Najwyższa Ukraińskiej SRR proklamowała niepodległość, a 1 grudnia naród ratyfikował ją w referendum. Pokojowy sposób powstania, posiadanie niekwestionowanego terytorium oraz uformowanej administracji cywilnej było ogromnym atutem nowego państwa. Jednak „ciemną stroną” tych atutów były fundamentalne słabości: republiki sowieckie były częściami ZSRR, nie miały więc centralnych ogniw struktur państwa (w tym sztabu generalnego, banku emisyjnego oraz większości resortów).Po niemal ćwierćwieczu pokojowego budownictwa przerwanego w 2014 roku wybuchem wojny Ukraina jest wprawdzie państwem słabym, ale ugruntowanym wewnętrznie i międzynarodowo, zdolnym do oparcia się agresji zbrojnej i aktywnie poszukującym swego miejsca w świecie. Największym sukcesem kraju było wychowanie nowego pokolenia „urodzonych obywateli Ukrainy”, największą porażką – dramatyczne załamanie demograficzne o skutkach, których nie da się już odwrócić, a także, charakterystyczna również dla innych państw postsowieckich, pauperyzacja niższych warstw społeczeństwa.Opracowanie to nie jest historią niepodległej Ukrainy, lecz próbą przedstawienia podstawowych mechanizmów transformacji republiki sowieckiej w niepodległe, demokratyczne państwo o gospodarce rynkowej, skupia się więc przede wszystkim na problematyce wewnętrznej.

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DIFFICULT 'ALLY' Belarus in Russia's foreign policy
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DIFFICULT 'ALLY' Belarus in Russia's foreign policy

DIFFICULT 'ALLY' Belarus in Russia's foreign policy

Author(s): Wojciech Konończuk / Language(s): English,Polish

Keywords: Belarus; Russia; foreign policy

The current study consists of five chapters. The first chapter offers a brief presentation of Belarus' significance and position in Russian policy. The second analyses the development of Russian-Belarusian political relations, first of all the establishment of the Union State, Belarus' position in Russian domestic policy and Russia's influence on Belarusian policy. The third chapter presents bilateral economic relations, primarily energy issues. The fourth chapter describes the state and perspectives of military cooperation between the two states. The fifth chapter presents conclusions, where the author attempts to define the essence of the ongoing re-evaluation in Russian-Belarusian relations and to project their future model.

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Demographic situation in Russia
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Demographic situation in Russia

Demographic situation in Russia

Author(s): Leszek Szerepka / Language(s): English,Polish

Keywords: demography; Russia

Throughout the history of Russia, periods of deep chaos have been accompanied by demographic crises. This was the case during the Time of Troubles, or Smutnoye Vremya, in the seventeenth century, and during the period of wars and revolutions in the early twentieth century, which brought the Bolsheviks to power. Similarly, the break-up of the USSR also coincided with a demographic crisis. However, while the previous crises had been caused by factors such as war, famine, epidemics or repressive policies, and were followed by periods of rapid population growth once these factors had ceased to operate, the current crisis is systemic and structural. To a large extent, it has been occasioned by cultural factors such as changing family models and the roles of women in today's society. In Russia, the effect of these factors on population increase is exacerbated by excessive alcohol consumption, an culture of inadequate working conditions which leads to many accidents at work, and healthcare deficiencies (only c. 3% of the GDP is spent on healthcare annually). // In 2005, the Russian Academy of Sciences concluded a research programme entitled 'The demographic modernization of Russia, 1900-2000'. In the report it indicated that the Russian state had lost c. 140 million people in the twentieth century as a result of bad policies. This means that the present population of Russia would be larger by this number if the development of the state in the previous century had followed similar patterns to that of European states, and if human life had been respected in Russia as much as it was in Western Europe. According to Russian researchers, many current demographic problems in Russia stem from occurrences in the distant past. Development models are difficult to correct within a short timespan. All projections concerning Russia's demographic development predict that the country's population will continue to shrink until at least the middle of the twentyfirst century. The projections only differ as to the speed and nature of the population decrease. // When juxtaposed with the dynamic GDP growth and the government's ambition to reinforce Russia's international position, the demographic problems are a dissonance. The Russian political elite is concerned that if the negative demographic trends prevail, this may eventually stop the country's economic development. It is also worried that with its current population density, Russia will not be able to defend its vast territory and use it adequately. It is frequently emphasised that as a world power, the USSR had always remained among the top three most populous countries in the world after China and India. In 2000, the Russian Federation, as the legal successor of the USSR, dropped to sixth in this ranking, and in the mid-21st century it will struggle to remain in the top twenty. According to Russian analysts, a country with such a small population potential, disproportionate to its territory, will face difficulties preserving its status as a world power, and consequently in defending its international interests. The fact that Russia is a multinational state further complicates the situation. The country used to be dominated by ethnic Russians, but their percentage is shrinking systematically. In the future, this may affect both the country's cohesion and its prevailing cultural models. // The Russian authorities are aware of these threats; President Vladimir Putin mentions them regularly in his addresses to the nation. In his most recent speech, delivered on 10 May 2006, Putin said that the demographic crisis was the most important issue in Russia's internal policy. Demographic problems have been discussed by the parliament, the government and the Russian Federation Security Council. A document entitled 'A concept for the Russian Federation's demographic development to 2015' has been adopted. // The media cover the issue, frequently taking an alarming tone. However, in the policies implemented by the Russian authorities, improving the demographic situation has not been a genuine priority. The measures proposed have frequently been provisional, and have ultimately had little effect on demographic trends. Figures now available fully corroborate the pessimistic projections concerning Russia's demographic development which researchers had presented at the onset of the previous decade.

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Cross-border Co-operation at the new Eastern Border of the European Union. Russian-speakers in Latvia and Estonia /// The Eastern External Border of the Enlarged European Union
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Cross-border Co-operation at the new Eastern Border of the European Union. Russian-speakers in Latvia and Estonia /// The Eastern External Border of the Enlarged European Union

Wschodnia granica zewnętrzna rozszerzonej Unii Europejskiej. Współpraca transgraniczna na nowej granicy wschodniej Unii Europejskiej

Author(s): Rafał Sadowski,Joanna Hyndle-Hussein,Miryna Kutysz,Bartosz Cichocki / Language(s): English,Polish

Keywords: European Union; EU; Eastern External Border; Latvia; Estonia

I. The new eastern border of the European Union // The European Union's new border with Eastern European countries, Russia, Belarus and Ukraine, is approximately 3000 km long. It has vital meaning for the Union in terms of security as well as for social and economic reasons. Unlike the southern maritime border of the EU, the eastern land border poses a number of different challenges. These pertain, above all, to issues of ''soft security'' (i.e. smuggling, illegal migration, organised crime, etc.), but also to the fact that all the most important communication and trade routes connecting Europe with Eurasia cross this boundary. // The borderline goes through areas inhabited by people of similar cultural and historical backgrounds, who are, in a way, socially and ethnically related. It therefore plays a much greater role in social terms than the southern border. The northern part of Estonian-Russian borderland on the Estonian side is mostly inhabited by Russians, and in the southern part on both sides by the Setu ethnic group. A Belarussian minority lives in the border regions of Latvia (the Daugavpils and Kraslava regions), Lithuania, and Poland (the area around Bialystok and Biala Podlaska). On the other hand, Poles live in the western part of Belarus (the Hrodna and Brest districts) and Ukraine (the Lviv district). In turn, Ukrainians live in eastern Slovakia. The Trans-Carpathian region of Ukraine is partly inhabited by Hungarians. The EU border also divides communities which used to live in one country in Soviet times and have preserved social ties (the Baltic States' borders with Russia and Belarus). A characteristic of the areas on both sides of the new EU eastern border is its peripheral nature. Mostly rural communities whose economic indicators are much worse than in the rest of the country, they are also undersubsidised regions, with substantially higher unemployment levels than the country average, and lacking large industrial centres (except for the cities of Narva, Hrodna, Brest, Bialystok, Lublin and Lviv). This peripheral character contributes to the development of cross-border contacts and mutual attraction, especially in business terms. Cross-border trade, both legal and illegal, is an important source of income for local inhabitants.

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Armed Conflicts in the Post-soviet Region. Present Situation, Prospects for Settlement. Consequences
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Armed Conflicts in the Post-soviet Region. Present Situation, Prospects for Settlement. Consequences

Konflikty zbrojne na obszarze postradzieckim. Stan obecny, perspektywy uregulowania. Konsekwencje

Author(s): Krzysztof Strachota / Language(s): English,Polish

Keywords: post-soviet Region; armed conflicts

1. Unresolved conflicts continue to smoulder in Transnistria, Chechnya, Abkhazia, Nagorno-Karabakh and South Ossetia. "Para-states" have formed in most conflict-affected areas. These have grown to become permanent players in the region. In Chechnya, guerrilla fights continue in the wake of the Russian army's siege of the republic. The conflict in Tajikistan ended in 1997 and the normalisation process is currently under way. // 2. Each of these conflicts has entailed profound political, social, ethnic and economic changes, as well as affecting other spheres of life. Presently, it is impossible to return to the pre-conflict situation. The "para-states" have fortified their independence and are no longer controlled by the external powers on which they depended in the initial phases of the conflicts. // 3. Unresolved conflicts, including those of Transnistria, Chechnya, Abkhazia, Nagorno-Karabakh, South Ossetia and, until recently, Tajikistan, have an adverse effect on the situation in the region. They hinder political and economic development of the affected countries, lead to the brutalisation of political life and breed instability by providing save havens for organised crime, terrorism, etc. They are also the cause of large-scale migration problems. However, with time, these negative effects become less and less turbulent. // 4. So far, attempts at solving most of the conflicts (Transnistria, Abkhazia, Nagorno-Karabakh, South Ossetia) have failed to produce results other than cease-fires. Permanent settlement could not be achieved, neither through the use of force nor by way of negotiation. The power and independence of the "para-states", hard-line leaderships on both sides, and finally, military weakness of the metropolises consolidate the state of suspension. The conflict in Tajikistan was settled using political methods, and the normalisation process is progressing in a satisfactory manner. Chechnya has been conquered militarily by Russian troops and Moscow is now implementing its model of imposed "normalisation", but it does not have full control over the republic and cannot contain the growing problems induced by the conflict, such as the emergence of Chechen terrorism. // 5. Some of the negative consequences of the conflicts are gradually being abated by the evolution in Russia's policy towards them (Russia is gradually ceasing playing on the conflicts as foreign policy instruments and is shifting towards political and economic measures). Also instrumental to this are the increasing involvement of the US and, to a smaller extent, the EU, in regional security (as part of their struggle against terrorism), as well as the growing strength of state systems and the development of political and economic co-operation between the conflict-affected republics (for example, the construction of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, the TRACECA programme). In the longer term, these tendencies may also help in resolving the actual conflicts themselves.

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Big business in the Russian economy and politics under Putin's rule /// The Russian power industry shortly before reforms /// Ukrainian metallurgy: the economic link in the oligarchic power system
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Big business in the Russian economy and politics under Putin's rule /// The Russian power industry shortly before reforms /// Ukrainian metallurgy: the economic link in the oligarchic power system

Big business in the Russian economy and politics under Putin's rule /// The Russian power industry shortly before reforms /// Ukrainian metallurgy: the economic link in the oligarchic power system

Author(s): Iwona Wiśniewska,Ewa Paszyc,Arkadiusz Sarna / Language(s): English,Polish

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Neither super-rich, nor bankrupt. Gazprom’s financial condition
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Neither super-rich, nor bankrupt. Gazprom’s financial condition

Ani krezus, ani bankrut. Kondycja finansowa Gazpromu

Author(s): Szymon Kardaś / Language(s): Polish

Keywords: Gazprom; Russia; gas-company; investment programme; financial state of company; major gas supplier;

W 2018 roku Gazprom – największy, kontrolowany przez państwo, rosyjski koncern gazowy – przyjął rekordowy w historii program inwestycyjny. W 2017 roku spółka odnotowała także największe w historii wpływy ze sprzedaży gazu i innych dóbr i usług. Jednocześnie w latach 2007–2017 ponad sześciokrotnie zmniejszyła się kapitalizacja koncernu, a całkowite zadłużenie osiągnęło w 2017 roku rekordowy poziom 55,2 mld USD. W związku z powyższym warto przyjrzeć się kondycji finansowej największego rosyjskiego koncernu gazowego, który zachowuje status znaczącego dostawcy gazu na rynek europejski (34% udziału w rynku UE w 2017 roku).

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Russia’s Middle Eastern policy. Regional ambitions, global objectives
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Russia’s Middle Eastern policy. Regional ambitions, global objectives

Bliskowschodnia polityka Rosji. Regionalne ambicje, globalne cele

Author(s): Witold Rodkiewicz / Language(s): Polish

Keywords: Russia; Middle East; foreign policy; Middle Eastern policy; Russian military interventions; Syria; geopolitics; conflicts;

Rosyjska interwencja wojskowa w Syrii, rozpoczęta jesienią 2015 roku, wywołała falę komentarzy głoszących, że Rosja odzyskała pozycję wielkiego mocarstwa na Bliskim Wschodzie. Celem niniejszego tekstu jest po pierwsze ustalenie, na czym polega rosyjska mocarstwowość na Bliskim Wschodzie, a po drugie rekonstrukcja motywów, jakimi kieruje się Kreml w swojej polityce bliskowschodniej. Pierwsza część pracy stanowi próbę określenia miejsca polityki bliskowschodniej w globalnej polityce zagranicznej Kremla oraz zidentyfikowania rosyjskich priorytetów w regionie. Część druga pokazuje ewolucję polityki bliskowschodniej postsowieckiej Rosji, zwracając uwagę z jednej strony na jej rosnące zaangażowanie w regionie, a z drugiej na instrumentalny charakter tego zaangażowania. Ze względu na to, że od jesieni 2015 roku interwencja wojskowa w Syrii stała się centralnym elementem rosyjskiej polityki na Bliskim Wschodzie, analizie jej przyczyn i celów jest poświęcona część trzecia tekstu. W części czwartej i piątej analizowana jest polityka Rosji wobec dwóch najważniejszych z jej punktu widzenia regionalnych partnerów – Turcji i Iranu. Część szósta to próba charakterystyki instrumentów, za pomocą których Rosja zbudowała swoją pozycję w regionie, a także dokonania bilansu rosyjskiej polityki bliskowschodniej i identyfikacji wyzwań, które przed nią stoją.

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The multi-speed Baltic States. Reinforcing the defence capabilities of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia
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The multi-speed Baltic States. Reinforcing the defence capabilities of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia

Bałtowie wielu prędkości. Wzmacnianie potencjału obronnego Litwy, Łotwy i Estonii

Author(s): Piotr Szymański / Language(s): Polish

As regards defence policy, the Baltic states are usually treated by experts as forming a single unit. The reasons for this include a similar threat perception, similar military capabilities, and finally similar military modernisation programmes. However, the differences in their demographic and economic potentials as well as strategic cultures have resulted in them adopting different models of their armed forces.

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