Series:OSW Reports

0.00 €

German Networks in the East. German soft power in Eastern Europe, Central Asia and the South Caucasus

Niemieckie sieci na Wschodzie. Niemiecki soft power w Europie Wschodniej, Azji Centralnej i na Kaukazie Południowym: polityka – administracja – kultura – nauka – społeczeństwo

Author(s): Justyna Gotkowska / Language(s): Polish

Keywords: German Networks; German soft power; Eastern Europe; Central Asia; the South Caucasus

Contact network building and political lobbying, development co-operation programmes and foreign cultural and science policy are vital for supporting the German economy – which relies heavily on exports – and for the country’s ambition to gain the status of a European centre of technology and innovation, and to have a stronger influence on the EU’s external activity.

More...

0.00 €

The Radical Islamic Militants of Central Asia

The Radical Islamic Militants of Central Asia

Author(s): Józef Lang / Language(s): English

Keywords: Radical Islam;Central Asia; the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan; Islamic Jihad Union;terrorism;terrorism and extremism;terrorism and Islam;

Radical Islamic militants from Central Asia have ceased to be a local phenomenon. The organisations created by those groups (the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan and the Islamic Jihad Union) engage in propaganda, recruitment, fundraising and terrorist operations in states distant from their traditional area of interest, such as European Union countries, South Asia and the United States. Their ranks contain not only Central Asian Islamists, but also those from other countries, such as Russia, Pakistan, Germany, France, the United Kingdom, China, Turkey and even Myanmar. These organisations’ current activities and forms are multidimensional and complicated, characterised by combat versatility, structural amorphism, operational mobility and simultaneous operations in different fields and theatres. As a result of the universalization of Islamic terrorism, these organisations have been intensifying contacts with other international Islamic terrorist organisations based in Waziristan (mainly al-Qaida, Taliban and the Haqqani Network). A specific system of mutual cooperation has developed between them, involving the specialisation of various terrorist organisations in particular aspects of terrorist activity. The IMU and IJU specialise in the recruitment and training of Islamic radicals from around the world, and have thus become a kind of ‘jihad academy’.

More...

0.00 €

The Radical Islamic Militants of Central Asia

Zbrojni radykałowie islamscy z Azji Centralnej

Author(s): Józef Lang / Language(s): Polish

Keywords: Radical Islam;Central Asia; the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan; Islamic Jihad Union;terrorism;terrorism and extremism;terrorism and Islam;

There are a number of radical Islamic circles in Central Asia, such as Salafis, Jamiat-e Tablig or Hizb-ut Tahrir. However, due to their largely peaceful (non-combatant) character or marginal importance, they are not the subject of this study. The report is devoted to the activities of organized armed Islamic radicals from Central Asia, currently concentrated around two international terrorist organizations - the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan and the Islamic Jihad Union.

More...

0.00 €

Chasing globalisation. Germany's economic relations with the BRIC countries

Chasing globalisation. Germany's economic relations with the BRIC countries

Author(s): Konrad Popławski / Language(s): English

Keywords: BRIC countries;globalization / globalizacja; German export; Germany;Eurozone crisis;

In this report, the author presents the major trends in Germany’s economic cooperation with the BRIC countries and analyses the way in which the German state supports the companies involved in trade and investment activities in these states. To investigate these processes, the method of economic analysis of trade and capital flows between Germany and the BRIC states are principally employed. Additionally the talks with German experts were conducted. The figures quoted in this report have mainly been drawn from data bases kept by the German Federal Statistics Office and the Bundesbank. To analyse these figures, one needs to be aware of the methodology the German institutions use to collect information on trade flows. It should be remembered that they treat goods which reach the country through German harbours as German imports, whereas their further resale abroad is registered as exports, and these flows should be classified as trade figures relating to third countries. So, it seems that the trade results calculated using this method are overestimated. On the other hand, it is difficult to assess what portion of these goods is further transferred to German manufacturing plants in Central and Eastern Europe.

More...

0.00 €

Chasing globalisation. Germany's economic relations with the BRIC countries

W pogoni za globalizacją. Niemieckie relacje gospodarcze z krajami BRIC

Author(s): Konrad Popławski / Language(s): Polish

Keywords: BRIC countries;globalization / globalizacja; German export; Germany;Eurozone crisis;

The author decided to include Russia in the analysis, even though German-Russian relations have a much longer tradition than Germany's relations with the other BRIC countries. Moreover, German-Russian relations due to their location OSW STUDIES 09/2012 6 OSW REPORT 11/2013. Russia's geopolitical issues cannot be analyzed solely on the basis of economic indicators, because apart from economic considerations, they are also influenced by political issues and security aspects, completely different than in the case of China, India or Brazil. However, a discussion of Germany's economic relations with Russia and their juxtaposition with the trends present in relations with Brazil, India and China will allow for a better assessment of the changes that are taking place in the perception of Russia by German elites. It may also establish a new perspective for analyzing transformations in German-Russian relations and assessing whether strategic political relations translate into the development of economic relations

More...

0.00 €

Visegrad development aid in the Eastern Partnership region

Wyszehradzka pomoc rozwojowa w obszarze Partnerstwa Wschodniego

Author(s): Zsuzsanna Végh / Language(s): Polish

Keywords: Visegrad countries (V4);EaP countries;development aid;Visegrad Four;

Systemy międzynarodowej współpracy rozwojowej poszczególnych państw Grupy Wyszehradzkiej w większości przypadków istnieją dopiero od dekady. Poszczególne kraje V4 starają się budować swoją pozycję poprzez stopniowe zwiększanie wartości dwustronnej oficjalnej pomocy rozwojowej. Posiadane przez nie zasoby są jednak dość ograniczone i zostały dodatkowo zredukowane wskutek kryzysu finansowego i gospodarczego. Mimo to, od 2009 r. do krajów Partnerstwa Wschodniego trafia coraz większa część łącznej wartości ODA całej Grupy Wyszehradzkiej. // Ponieważ systemy pomocowe poszczególnych krajów dopiero się rozwijają, a same kraje skupiają się na budowie własnej marki, jest mało prawdopodobne, by w najbliższej przyszłości były one zainteresowane stworzeniem wspólnego funduszu rozwojowego, czy to dla obszaru PW, czy też mającego ogólny charakter. Dlatego zamiast myśleć o tworzeniu nowych instytucji należałoby rozważyć zracjonalizowanie obecnej współpracy i lepsze wykorzystanie już teraz zaangażowanych zasobów.

More...

0.00 €

Renewable energy sources in Germany. Current state of development, interest groups and challenges

Odnawialne źródła energii w Niemczech. Obecny stan rozwoju, grupy interesu i wyzwania

Author(s): Rafał Bajczuk / Language(s): Polish

Keywords: Renewable energy sources; Germany; Energy transition;

Realizowana obecnie w Niemczech strategia transformacji energetycznej zakłada oparcie większości produkcji energii do 2050 roku na odnawialnych źródłach energii (OZE). Państwo wspiera rozwój OZE od początku lat 90., ale decyzja o intensyfikacji transformacji energetycznej po katastrofie w elektrowni jądrowej w Fukushimie przyspieszyła ten proces. Dzisiaj politycy mówią o niemieckiej strategii energetycznej jako o „projekcie stulecia”, a wśród partii politycznych, jak i przedstawicieli biznesu nie słychać sprzeciwu wobec obranego kierunku polityki energetycznej Berlina. // Raport pokazuje najważniejsze tendencje w rozwoju odnawialnych źródeł energii w Niemczech. Interesy koncernów energetycznych, przemysłu (największego konsumenta energii elektrycznej), organizacji pozarządowych czy wreszcie nowych aktorów na rynku energii – osób prywatnych i spółdzielni energetycznych mają duży wpływ na dalszy kierunek rozwoju odnawialnych źródeł energii w RFN. W raporcie omówiono także wyzwania związane z realizacją transformacji energetycznej, takie jak: przebudowa rynku energii pod kątem produkcji prądu z niestabilnych OZE, rozbudowa infrastruktury, koordynacja polityki energetycznej na poziomie federalnym i europejskim oraz zmniejszenie kosztów. Właśnie zmniejszanie kosztów systemu wsparcia dla OZE przy równoczesnym utrzymaniu dużego poziomu inwestycji jest największym wyzwaniem dla niemieckiej transformacji energetycznej w następnych latach.

More...

0.00 €

The economic and financial crisis in Russia – background, symptoms and prospects for the future

The economic and financial crisis in Russia – background, symptoms and prospects for the future

Author(s): / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia;financial crisis;economic crisis; Russia’s financial market;macroeconomic indicators;

The crisis in Russia’s financial market, which started in mid-December 2014, has exposed the real scale of the economic problems that have been growing in Russia for several years. Over the course of the last year, Russia’s basic macroeconomic indicators deteriorated considerably, the confidence of its citizens in the state and in institutions in charge of economic stability declined, the government and business elites became increasingly dissatisfied with the policy direction adopted by the Kremlin, and fighting started over the shrinking resources. // According to forecasts obtained from both governmental and expert communities, Russia will fall into recession in 2015. The present situation is the result of the simultaneous occurrence of three unfavourable trends: the fact that the Russian economy’s resource-based development model has reached the limits of its potential due to structural weaknesses, the dramatic decline in oil prices in the second half of 2014, and the impact of Western economic sanctions. // Given the inefficiency of existing systemic mechanisms, in the coming years the Russian leadership will likely resort to ad hoc solutions such as switching to a more interventionist “manual override” mode in governing the state. In the short term, this will allow them to neutralise the most urgent problems, although an effective development policy will be impossible without a fundamental change of the political and economic system in Russia.

More...

0.00 €

The economic and financial crisis in Russia – background, symptoms and prospects for the future

Kryzys gospodarczo-finansowy w Rosji. Uwarunkowania, przejawy, perspektywy

Author(s): / Language(s): Polish

Keywords: Russia;financial crisis;economic crisis; Russia’s financial market;macroeconomic indicators;

Kryzys na rosyjskim rynku finansowym, do jakiego doszło w połowie grudnia 2014 roku, obnażył skalę narastających od kilku lat problemów gospodarczych Rosji. W ciągu minionego roku zauważalnie pogarszały się podstawowe wskaźniki makroekonomiczne, spadło zaufanie obywateli do państwa i jego instytucji odpowiedzialnych za stabilność ekonomiczną, a w elitach władzy i biznesu narastało niezadowolenie z obranej przez Kreml drogi rozwoju i zaostrzała się walka o kurczące się zasoby. // Według zgodnych prognoz środowisk eksperckich i rządu, w 2015 roku Rosję czeka recesja. Przyczyn obecnego stanu rzeczy należy szukać w nałożeniu się na siebie trzech niekorzystnych trendów: wyczerpania się surowcowego modelu rozwoju gospodarki rosyjskiej w wyniku słabości strukturalnych, drastycznego spadku cen ropy naftowej w drugiej połowie 2014 roku, wreszcie wpływu zachodnich sankcji ekonomicznych. // W ciągu najbliższych kilku lat rosyjskie władze, wobec niewydolności mechanizmów systemowych, będą się uciekać do działań ad hoc – „ręcznego sterowania” państwem. W perspektywie krótkoterminowej pozwoli to na częściową neutralizację najbardziej palących problemów, jednak realizacja efektywnej strategii rozwojowej niemożliwa jest bez fundamentalnej przebudowy systemu polityczno-gospodarczego Rosji.

More...

0.00 €

Nuclear projects in Central and South-Eastern Europe. Status and Prospects

Projekty jądrowe w Europie Środkowej i Południowo-Wschodniej. Stan i perspektywy

Author(s): Jakub Groszkowski,Andrzej Sadecki,Tomasz Dąborowski,Marta Szpala / Language(s): Polish

Keywords: Nuclear Energy; Central Europe; Visegrad countries; Visegrad Four; Southern European countries; Electricity;

Nuclear energy plays an important role in Central and South-Eastern Europe. Nuclear power plants occupy an important place in the production of electricity, especially in those countries that have very small domestic deposits of energy resources (Slovakia and Hungary). They play a slightly lesser role in countries that have their own coal or gas resources (e.g. the Czech Republic, Bulgaria, Romania). Regardless, the governments of all these countries are interested in increasing the share of nuclear energy in the national structure of energy production and consumption. // A number of nuclear projects are underway in the region. They concern both the modernization of existing power plants, preparations for the implementation of new projects, and the construction of new reactors. Works are the most advanced in Slovakia, where the construction of two nuclear units in Mochovce is being completed. The government in Bratislava is also considering the construction of one or two more nuclear units in Jaslovské Bohunice. In Hungary, the construction of new units at the Paks power plant is being prepared, in Romania - the construction of new units at the Cernavodă power plant, and in Bulgaria a new unit at Kozloduy. In the Czech Republic, a tender is planned for the construction of new nuclear units in Temelín and Dukovany.

More...

0.00 €

Development co-operation made in Germany

Współpraca rozwojowa made in Germany

Author(s): Kamil Frymark / Language(s): Polish

Keywords: Germany;development policy;development cooperation;German economy;German foreign policy;

W RFN od wielu lat polityka rozwojowa przykuwa uwagę opinii publicznej oraz cieszy się dużym poparciem społecznym. Jednocześnie dla Niemców współpraca rozwojowa nie jest rodzajem pomocy humanitarnej. Jest formą umowy pomiędzy równorzędnymi partnerami, którzy z tej współpracy wyciągają obopólne korzyści. Niemiecka polityka rozwojowa stanowi wsparcie dla gospodarki RFN. Dzięki niej i znacznemu udziałowi państwa w projektach rozwojowych zmniejsza się ryzyko inwestycyjne dla niemieckich przedsiębiorców angażujących się w państwach rozwijających się. Dodatkowo współpraca bilateralna skutecznie buduje markę made in Germany zarówno w odniesieniu do polityki rozwojowej, jak i dalszej kooperacji gospodarczej, uzależniając pośrednio odbiorców współpracy rozwojowej od niemieckich towarów i usług. // Polityka rozwojowa jest również obok niemieckiej dyplomacji oraz polityki obronnej trzecim elementem polityki zagranicznej Niemiec. Pełni ona w tym ujęciu przede wszystkim funkcję prewencyjną wobec konfliktów międzynarodowych. Inwestowanie środków w ramach projektów rozwojowych w obszarach, gdzie toczą się konflikty zbrojne lub gdzie występuje znaczne ryzyko ich wybuchu, jest przez RFN postrzegane jako wkład w przezwyciężanie kryzysów lub usuwanie ich przyczyn. Towarzyszy też temu przekonanie, że konflikty międzynarodowe, gdziekolwiek się pojawiają, szkodzą niemieckiej gospodarce opartej na eksporcie.

More...

0.00 €

HOMO JIHADICUS. Islam in the former USSR and the phenomenon of the post-Soviet militants in Syria and Iraq

HOMO JIHADICUS. Islam in the former USSR and the phenomenon of the post-Soviet militants in Syria and Iraq

Author(s): Maciej Falkowski,Józef Lang / Language(s): English

Keywords: The post-Soviet area; former USSR states; Islam; militant Islam; Salafism; Ummah

The post-Soviet area, along with the countries of the Middle East, North Africa and Western Europe, have become one of the main global exporters of Islamic militants. Currently on the territory of Syria, and to a lesser extent of Iraq, there are several thousands of foreign fighters from the post-Soviet states. The causes of the war migration from the former USSR states to the Middle East have their roots in the dynamic changes taking place inside Islam in the post-Soviet area: primarily the growth of Salafism and militant Islam, as well as the internationalisation and globalisation of the local Islam. The deep political, economic, social and ideological changes which Muslims underwent after the collapse of the USSR, led to the creation of a specific group within them, for which Islam in its radical form became the main element of their identity. Homo sovieticus, without fully eradicating his Soviet part, became Homo jihadicus who not only identifies himself with the global Ummah, but is also ready to leave his country and join jihad beyond its borders in the name of the professed ideas.

More...

0.00 €

HOMO JIHADICUS. Islam in the former USSR and the Phenomenon of the Post-Soviet militants in Syria and Iraq

HOMO DŻIHADICUS. Islam na obszarze byłego ZSRR a Fenomen Postsowieckich bojowników w Syrii i Iraku

Author(s): Maciej Falkowski,Józef Lang / Language(s): Polish

Keywords: The post-Soviet area; former USSR states;Islam;militant Islam;Salafism; Ummah

Obszar postsowiecki, obok państw Bliskiego Wschodu, Afryki Północnej i Europy Zachodniej, stał się jednym z głównych globalnych „eksporterów” bojowników islamskich. Obecnie na terytorium Syrii, a w mniejszym stopniu również Iraku, walczy kilka tysięcy wychodźców z państw postsowieckich. Podłożem zjawiska emigracji wojennej z państw byłego ZSRR na Bliski Wschód są dynamiczne zmiany wewnątrz islamu na obszarze postsowieckim, przede wszystkim rozwój salafizmu i wojującego islamu oraz internacjonalizacja i globalizacja tamtejszego islamu. Głębokie zmiany polityczne, ekonomiczne, społeczne i ideologiczne, jakim podlegali muzułmanie po rozpadzie ZSRR, doprowadziły do wyłonienia się wśród nich specyficznej grupy, dla której islam w jego radykalnej wersji stał się podstawowym elementem tożsamości. Człowiek sowiecki, nie wyzbywając się do końca swojej sowieckości, stał się homo dżihadicusem – człowiekiem nie tylko utożsamiającym się ze światową ummą, ale też gotowym w imię wyznawanych idei opuścić własny kraj i włączyć się w dżihad poza jego granicami.

More...

0.00 €

Paradoxes of stabilisation. Bosnia and Herzegovina from the perspective of Central Europe

Paradoxes of stabilisation. Bosnia and Herzegovina from the perspective of Central Europe

Author(s): / Language(s): English

Keywords: Bosnia and Herzegovina; European Union membership;integration process; application to the EU; The Western Balkans;Central Europe;

On 15 February 2016 Bosnia and Herzegovina applied for membership of the European Union. This was the result of the new policy strategy which the EU introduced in 2014, aimed at unblocking BiH’s integration process and encouraging local elites to accelerate the reform process. Despite a formal application to the EU, the main internal problems of BiH remain the same - local politicians focus more on the power struggle and enhancing ethnic division than on reform and this is hampering the economic development of one of the poorest countries in Europe. For these reasons this report is devoted to analysing the internal challenges to the stability, coherence and unity of the country. Special attention was also placed on examining the interest and strategies of the various international actors since they can hinder or support the reform process. // The Western Balkans, including Bosnia and Herzegovina, is playing a prominent role in the framework of V4 cooperation. The stability of this region and its integration with the EU is of vital interest to the V4 countries. It was for this reason that the Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW), alongside partner institutions from the V4 countries – the Research Centre of the Slovak Foreign Policy Association (RC SFPA), the Institute of International Relations (IIR) from the Czech Republic, and GEO Research from Hungary – and supported by the International Visegrad Fund, decided to develop a joint research project focused on BiH.

More...

0.00 €

The role of Central Europe in the German economy. The political consequences

Rola Europy Środkowej w gospodarce Niemiec. Konsekwencje polityczne

Author(s): Konrad Popławski / Language(s): Bulgarian,Polish

Keywords: Germany; Central Europe; economic relations; Visegrád Group; modernisation;

Publications from recent years allow us to conclude that the economic relations between Germany and Central Europe have reached the "end of history" and nothing new will happen. A deeper analysis of these relationships reveals interesting new trends. After joining the European Union, the countries of Central Europe were not satisfied with the average level of economic development but continued to make up for the distance separating them from Western Europe, which was not hindered by the global financial crisis. The better economic situation also translated into relations with Germany. The aggregated results of the Visegrad Group countries place them in the position of Germany's most important trade partner, the balance of trade in goods is in a state of balance, while many eurozone countries record high levels of trade deficit with Germany. The aim of the report is to show trends in trade and investment exchange between Germany and Central Europe on the example of the Visegrad Group. The author also attempts to answer the question of whether the deepening of economic cooperation between Germany and the V4 countries will lead to further modernization of the economies of these countries, or will it expose them to the risk of falling into the "middle-income trap".

More...

0.00 €

Dependency Management. Conditions of the German gas policy

Zarządzanie zależnością. Uwarunkowania niemieckiej polityki gazowej

Author(s): Rafał Bajczuk / Language(s): Polish

Keywords: gas sector; German economy; energy sector; energy transition; German-Russian relations;

After crude oil, natural gas is the most important energy carrier for the German economy. Due to its wide range of applications and low emissions, it will serve as a bridge fuel in the German energy transformation in the future. Natural gas can be used both in the heating and power sectors, as well as in transport. Although the volume of gas consumption will fall in the coming years, its share in Germany's energy mix will increase, as other conventional fuels, such as crude oil and coal, will be phased out even faster. // The report discusses the internal and external conditions of German policy in the gas sector. The first chapter deals with the role of gas in the German economy: it presents the impact of the energy transition on gas consumption and the importance of this raw material for German industry. The second chapter deals with relations with external suppliers. Most attention is given to Russia, which has been the largest exporter of gas to Germany since the mid-1980s, and has strengthened its position due to the investment in the Nord Stream pipeline. The last chapter presents alternatives to the current model of gas supply to Germany: the construction of an LNG terminal, the exploitation of shale gas, as well as the potential of using biogas and innovative power-to-gas technology.

More...

0.00 €

Kaliningrad Oblast 2016. The Society, Economy and Army

Kaliningrad Oblast 2016. The Society, Economy and Army

Author(s): Iwona Wiśniewska,Maria Domańska,Jan Strzelecki,Piotr Żochowski,Andrzej Wilk,Marek Menkiszak / Language(s): English

Keywords: the Russian Federation;Kaliningrad Oblast;the Baltic region;Iskander;Russian political system;

Moscow has been developing a new model of governance for Kaliningrad Oblast in 2016. The changes in the regional government (the governance of the oblast was entrusted to people sent from Moscow and had no links with the region) were part of it. These are a result of Russia’s depleting financial resources and austerity policy, the increasing militarisation of the Russian Federation and the important role the oblast plays in this policy, and the need to ensure a satisfactory result in the upcoming presidential election. Although there are at present no visible symptoms suggesting an intensification of protest sentiments, Moscow is taking preventive action to try to tighten its grip on local elites and residents. Kaliningrad Oblast remains an essential element of the Russian military strategy in the Baltic region. This is borne out by the deployment in the region of S-400 air defence systems, ships equipped with Kalibr missiles, and Bastion missile defence systems (which are nominally anti-ship weapons but are also adjusted to attacking ground targets). Furthermore, the deployment of Iskander missile systems has been launched which enables the creation of a so-called ‘Anti-Access/Area Denial’ (A2/AD) zone, extending the range of Russian weapons to the territories and airspace of the neighbouring NATO member states.

More...

0.00 €

Kaliningrad Oblast 2016. The Society, Economy and Army

Obwód kaliningradzki 2016. Społeczeństwo, Gospodarka, Armia

Author(s): Iwona Wiśniewska,Maria Domańska,Jan Strzelecki,Piotr Żochowski,Andrzej Wilk,Marek Menkiszak / Language(s): Polish

Keywords: Kaliningrad Oblast; Security; Russian political system; Russian Federation (RF); Russian army; Russian economy; Iskander;

Moscow has been developing a new model of governance for Kaliningrad Oblast in 2016. The changes in the regional government (the governance of the oblast was entrusted to people sent from Moscow and had no links with the region) were part of it. These are a result of Russia’s depleting financial resources and austerity policy, the increasing militarization of the Russian Federation and the important role the oblast plays in this policy, and the need to ensure a satisfactory result in the upcoming presidential election. Although there are at present no visible symptoms suggesting an intensification of protest sentiments, Moscow is taking preventive action to try to tighten its grip on local elites and residents. Kaliningrad Oblast remains an essential element of the Russian military strategy in the Baltic region. This is borne out by the deployment in the region of S-400 air defense systems, ships equipped with Kalibr missiles, and Bastion missile defense systems (which are nominally anti-ship weapons but are also adjusted to attacking ground targets). Furthermore, the deployment of Iskander missile systems has been launched which enables the creation of a so-called “Anti-Access/Area Denial” (A2/AD) zone, extending the range of Russian weapons to the territories and airspace of the neighboring NATO member states.

More...

0.00 €

Ukraine’s Presidential Elections, 2019. The Main Candidates

Wybory prezydenckie na Ukrainie 2019. Główni pretendenci

Author(s): Tadeusz Iwański,Krzysztof Nieczypor / Language(s): Polish

Keywords: Ukraine; presidential elections; the main candidates; pro-Russian candidates; strategic development of state;

Po raz pierwszy w historii niepodległej Ukrainy na siedem miesięcy przed wyborami prezydenckimi trudno jest określić nie tylko głównego kandydata do zwycięstwa, ale także skład drugiej tury. Zwycięstwo któregokolwiek z polityków w pierwszej turze (31 marca 2019 roku) obecnie wydaje się wykluczone. Dostępne badania opinii publicznej jednoznacznie wskazują, że największym poparciem cieszy się Julia Tymoszenko. Jednocześnie ponad 20% wyborców nie wie lub nie chce ujawnić, na kogo odda głos, ponad 10% wybrałoby kogoś, kto nie jest ujmowany w sondażach, a prawie połowa szukałaby alternatywy wśród nowych kandydatów. Główni pretendenci, poza kandydatami prorosyjskimi, w zasadzie nie różnią się w głoszonych poglądach na kierunki strategicznego rozwoju państwa. Każdy z nich deklaruje poparcie dla integracji Ukrainy z UE i NATO, kontynuowania reform i modernizacji polityczno-gospodarczej na wzór zachodni.

More...

0.00 €

Islamic State in Germany, Germans in Islamic State. Germany’s Homegrown Jihadists

Islamic State in Germany, Germans in Islamic State. Germany’s Homegrown Jihadists

Author(s): Artur Ciechanowicz / Language(s): English

Keywords: Germany; Islamic State; jihadists; Islamic radicalism; conflicts; Germany’s internal security; Islamic radicals; Germans; violence and terror;

In Germany, Islamic radicalism is not a new and unknown phenomenon and departures of jihadists to conflict regions have been recorded before. However, the present scale of this phenomenon, alongside threats formulated towards Germany, has made Germans aware of the size of the risk. The Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution (BfV) considers several hundred individuals who in recent years travelled to fight in the war alongside groups from which they originate to be one of the greatest threats to Germany’s internal security. Despite the fact that they have not organised any attack on a scale comparable to that of the attacks carried out in Madrid, London, Paris and Brussels, through their presence and activity, Islamic radicals permanently residing in Germany exert a certain influence on how the German state and society function. Moreover, their existence is a symptom of a deep problem which is unlikely to be automatically resolved if and when Islamic State collapses, the possibility to travel to the conflict regions is blocked, and the jihadists returning from these trips are taken to court. The problem of the radicalisation of Muslims living in Germany will likely grow in the coming years. The biggest fear experienced by security services and politicians involves this radicalisation translating into acts of violence and terror carried out in Germany, the potential reaction to these by German radicals, and the social and political consequences of such conflicts. Despite not being interconnected, recent attacks involving migrants (the summer of 2016) have made the slogans promoted by anti-immigrant and anti-Muslim groups all the more credible. Topics referred to in these slogans include: the impossibility of integrating Muslims, crime among immigrants, and the state’s failure to fulfil its commitments towards its citizens.

More...