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2002 Parliamentary Elections in Ukraine. Events, Results, Consequences

Author(s): Tadeusz A. Olszański / Language(s): English,Polish / Publication Year: 2003

On 31 March 2002, parliamentary elections were held in Ukraine. As expected, they were a major success for the centrist-rightist coalition focused around former Prime Minister Viktor Yuschenko. The communists emerged significantly weaker from the vote, and the "party of power" achieved a poor result. Yet, due to the mixed electoral law (half of the deputies were elected in single-mandate districts), the latter block, firmly supported by President Leonid Kuchma, resulted as the main force in Parliament. The results of particular parties and blocks were as follows: Viktor Yuschenko's Block received 23.57% of votes and 112 seats, the Communist Party of Ukraine - 19.98% of votes and 66 seats, the "For One Ukraine" block - 11.77% of votes and 101 seats, Yulia Tymoshenko's Block - 7.26% of votes and 22 seats, the Socialist Party of Ukraine - 6.87% of votes and 22 seats, and the Social Democratic Party of Ukraine (united) - 6.27% of votes and 24 seats. This shows how the mixed electoral regulations favour "For One Ukraine" and act against Yuschenko's block. One should note, however, that the latter gained the support of less than one quarter of voters.

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A captive island: Kaliningrad between Moscow and the EU

Author(s): Jadwiga Rogoża,Agata Wierzbowska-Miazga,Iwona Wiśniewska / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2012

The Kaliningrad region can be called a 'captive island', because of its specific geopolitical location - it is part of the Russian legal, political and economic space, yet it is geographically separated from the rest of the Russian Federation, and it is particularly open to co-operation with its neighbours in the European Union. Moscow is trying to compensate the region for its separation, offering it financial support and economic privileges.At the same time, it is sensitive to any potential challenges to Russia's territorial integrity - and the centre's desire for control over the region often limits the latter's potential for cooperation and internal development. This report presents the situation in the region, and is intended to help develop a model for its effective regional co-operation with its EU neighbours.

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A Country with non-Existent Unemployment. The Special Characteristics of the Czech Labour Market

Author(s): Krzysztof Dębiec / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2019

Since 2016, the Czech Republic has had the lowest unemployment rate among all EU member states (cf. Chart 1). In mid-2017, it overtook Japan to reach the top position in the ranking of OECD member states. This situation adversely affects companies which are looking for ways to cope with workforce shortages. One solution is the automation of production processes, but employers are also appealing for the country to become more open to receiving immigrant workers, above all from Ukraine. The trade unions are opposed to this, fearing that an influx of workers from other countries will slow down the rate of increase of wages. At the same time, there is a debate in the Czech Republic about the degree to which the present economic model contributes to the country catching up with the Western economies and what should be done to speed up the convergence.

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A neighbour discovered anew. The Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary’s relations with Ukraine

Author(s): Jakub Groszkowski,Tadeusz Iwański,Andrzej Sadecki / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2017

The Ukrainian-Russian war has prompted Bratislava, Prague and Budapest to take a new look at their eastern neighbourhood. Cooperation with Ukraine is gaining momentum, although relations with Russia are still the top priority for the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary. Diplomatic contacts with Kyiv have been rekindled, and the Visegrad Group has intensified its political support for Ukraine within the EU. The big success in the relationship between the V4 countries and Ukraine has been their booming energy cooperation. However, the pro-Russian gestures made by some leading politicians from the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary remain a challenge for relations between Bratislava, Budapest, Prague and Kyiv. Co-operation between Budapest and Kyiv is further complicated by the dispute over the Hungarian minority in Ukraine. Kyiv's top priority in foreign policy has traditionally been cooperation with wealthier countries, as well as those states seen as the key players in NATO and the EU (especially the US, Germany and France). Kyiv treats the Visegrad Group primarily as a useful forum for lobbying for Ukraine's interests in the EU and NATO. On the other hand, it is less interested in using the V4 as a platform for strengthening regional and bilateral cooperation with the countries of Central Europe.

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A new Visegrad Group in the new European Union - possibilities and opportunities for development

Author(s): Mariusz Bocian,Patrycja Bukalska / Language(s): English,Polish / Publication Year: 2003

The Visegrad Group has fulfilled the tasks it was set when established. It seems unjustified, therefore, to ponder the need for it to function further. However, it is advisable to lay out new tasks, suitable for the group's operation in the new European reality - following EU accession of Visegrad countries in May 2004.

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A quarter-century of independent Ukraine. Dimensions of transformation

Author(s): Tadeusz A. Olszański / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2017

On 24 August 1991, the Supreme Council of the Ukrainian SSR proclaimed independence, and on 1 December the same year, the Ukrainian people ratified that proclamation in a referendum. The new Ukrainian state had some very important assets, such as the peaceful path that led to its independence, the fact that its territory was uncontested and its civilian administration was established. They downside, which determined Ukraine’s fundamental weaknesses, was that like the other former Soviet republics, it had been part of the Soviet state and had no central state bodies of its own, such as a general staff, a bank of issue, or most of the necessary ministries. After nearly a quarter century of peaceful development, interrupted by the outbreak of the war in 2014, Ukraine is still weak, but at the same time it has consolidated internally and internationally, demonstrated its capacity to withstand armed aggression, and is actively looking for its place in the world. The country’s greatest success has been to raise a new generation of ‘natural-born citizens’ of Ukraine, while its greatest failure has been to succumb to the dramatic population decline with irreversible consequences, and to allow the impoverishment of the lower strata of society, typical for all the post-Soviet states. The present paper is not a history of independent Ukraine, but an attempt to present the main mechanisms by which the former Soviet republic has transformed itself into an independent state with a market economy. It is therefore mainly focused on internal developments in Ukraine.

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A region with special needs. The Russian Far East in Moscow’s policy

Author(s): Szymon Kardaś / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2017

Although in the 1990s the Russian Far East was not an important region in Russian central government’s internal policy, when Vladimir Putin assumed the presidency it was declared strategically significant. However, Moscow has been unable to generate a tangible stimulus to the region’s development so far. This is partly due to the systemic problems existing in Russia as a whole: the lack of a consistent concept of economic development and the ineffective governance system, and on the other hand, of purely local barriers: staffing problems, the decentralised energy system and the limited engagement of foreign investors. At present, there is no risk of the region’s marginalisation like in the 1990s. However, it appears that political reintegration of the region with the centre of the federation (tighter institutional control from Moscow) and the status of a stable raw material base for Asian countries, currently represents the maximum development potential of the Russian Far East.

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A strategic continuation, a tactical change. Russia’s European security policy

Author(s): Marek Menkiszak / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2019

1989 marked the beginning of a short but intense period of thorough geopolitical changes in the eastern part of Europe. The simultaneous weakening and liberalisation of the communist regime in the USSR led by Mikhail Gorbachev, the gradual limitation of Moscow’s economic and political support but also its shrinking control over the countries in the Soviet bloc and domestic political crises inside these countries led to a rapid downfall of the communist governments in Central-Eastern Europe. The military, economic and political structures of the Soviet bloc were dissolved within a timeframe of just two years, and the Soviet Union itself ceased to exist in December 1991, to be replaced with fifteen new independent states. The Russian Federation became the main successor to the USSR as it, albeit seriously weakened, inherited a large section of the Soviet empire’s resources and had to redefine its interests in the new post-Cold War European and global order that was being formed.

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A summary of the politico-economic changes taking place during Vladimir Putin's first term of office /// Chechnya and Russia: The significance of the Chechen problem for contemporary Russia

Author(s): Jadwiga Rogoża,Iwona Wiśniewska,Maciej Falkowski / Language(s): English,Polish / Publication Year: 2003

Following his rise to power in 2000, Vladimir Putin presented a comprehensive socio-economic program for the development of Russia through to 20101. This program was prepared by a team of economic experts from the Centre for Strategic Studies (CS S )2 led by St. Petersburg's German Gref. In spite of the fact that this document was never accepted in its entirety, and only its main assumptions were approved, as of 2000, short- and medium-term socio-economic government program have been based on the same principles.The medium-term goal of this development strategy through to 2010 was the reduction of the widening gap between Russia and developed nations. The long-term goal, on the other hand, was the restoration and strengthening of Russia's position as a leader on the global scale. The reforms of Russia's political system, social policy and the modernisation of the economy were intended to help achieve these goals.The aim of this study is to describe and analyse political and socio-economic reforms, as well as non-legislative changes initiated under Vladimir Putin's presidency. New reform activities will probably not be initiated over the six months remaining until the presidential elections. For this reason, it is already possible to summarise the changes achieved in the political, economic and social spheres during President Putin's first term of office.A description of the political and economic reforms and also of non-legislative changes, which took place in the Russian Federation over the past three and a half years, has been included in Part I of this study. The conclusion hereof attempts to summarise the actual achievements of President Putin's team, and to answer the question concerning perspectives of the reform process and factors determining the shape there of.

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A weak link? Germany in the Euro-Atlantic security system

Author(s): Justyna Gotkowska / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2015

The political, military and economic parameters of German power influence the vision of the international order that Berlin favours. Politically, Germany is a regional power in the EU with considerable diplomatic potential. Economically, it is the world's third largest power with growing global trade and investment links. At the same time, Germany's military potential is limited and the German strategic culture makes the country sceptical about the use of military instruments. Berlin is thus essentially interested in maintaining peace and stability, both in Europe and globally, and in developing diplomatic mechanisms to manage regional and global crises and conflicts. The German preference for dialogue and compromise in conflict situations in the regional and global dimensions may increasingly pose a risk to maintaining the cohesion and credibility of NATO – both from the perspective of the USA and Germany’s allies from Central-Eastern and Northern Europe.

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Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Nagorno-Karabakh: unfrozen conflicts between Russia and the West

Author(s): Wojciech Bartuzi,Katarzyna Pełczyńska-Nałęcz,Krzysztof Strachota / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2008

The Southern Caucasus is the site of three armed conflicts with separatist backgrounds, which have remained unsolved for years: the conflicts in Georgia's Abkhazia and South Ossetia, and Azerbaijan's conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh (including the areas around Nagorno-Karabakh which were seized by Armenian separatists in the course of the war). Neither Georgia nor Azerbaijan have had any control over the disputed areas since the early 1990s. Both states are simultaneously in conflict with the separatists' informal patrons, respectively Russia and Armenia.

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Active measures. Russia’s key export

Author(s): Jolanta Darczewska,Piotr Żochowski / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2017

The remarks presented in this paper show the complexity and multi-dimensionality of the techniques referred to as ‘active measures’. The renaissance of this question currently observable today has called their role in causing crises into prominence. This topic also deserves special treatment because the contemporary forms of active measures are largely based on patterns already known and described in the past. A historical perspective may help to assess and identify their covert mechanisms. The current problems with the aggressive actions of the Russian special services are enhanced versions of the old, to which new informational and communication technologies have contributed. This text is an attempt to clarify this historical concept, by showing the institutional framework of the information-sabotage activities, the conceptual and organisational innovations made since the Cold War, and it also highlights the current challenges and how to identify them.

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Alone in virtue. The "New Turkish" ideology in Turkey's foreign policy

Author(s): Szymon Ananicz / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2015

Once the West’s ally, Turkey has been an ever more problematic partner in recent years. The Turkish leadership no longer views the alliance with the European Union and membership in NATO as based on shared values; rather, it is now merely a cherry-picked and shaky community of interests. Turkey is also increasingly alienated politically in the Middle East. In the aftermath of the Arab Spring and the regional developments which followed, Ankara has lost much of the influence it had built in region in previous years. Turkey’s growing international isolation is a consequence of the country ever more fully subordinating its foreign policy to the ideology of the ruling AKP. The world vision offered by that ideology does not square with the diagnoses of Turkey’s partners. The objectives it sets for Turkish foreign policy are incompatible with its partners’ expectations. Moreover, a foreign policy rooted in ideology is less flexible and less capable of adjusting to current international dynamics.

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An Asian alternative? Russia's chances of making Asia an alternative to relations with the West

Author(s): Marcin Kaczmarski / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2008

Under Vladimir Putin's rule, Russia consistently and systematically expanded its activity in Asia, establishing closer political contacts with key countries in the region, rebuilding relations with former allies from Soviet times, and strengthening its presence in the Asian markets, in the energy sphere also. These activities were accompanied by intensive Russian propaganda, the message of which was that relations with the West can be restricted in favour of developing closer relations with Asian states.A justified question concerning the Russian Federation's realistic possibilities arises in this context: To what extent can it make Asia an alternative to theWest in geopolitical, economic and energy terms? Can Russia build an anti-Western alliance with Asian states? Is it able to reduce its dependence on the European market by developing its trade with Asia? Is it possible to redirect a substantial portion of Russian energy resource exports onto Asian markets? A presentation of the existing ties between Russia and theWest (here considered as the USA and the EU) will serve as a starting point for answering these questions. The following chapters will analyse Russia's opportunities in Asia in terms of geopolitical issues, the economy and energy

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An essential partner in the background. Europe in China's policy during the rule of Xi Jinping

Author(s): Marcin Kaczmarski / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2016

Chinese elites do not treat Europe as an equal partner and are convinced that China holds the upper hand over Europe. They see a growing asymmetry in bilateral relations. China’s sense of its own potential is boosted by internal divisions within the European Union. At the same time, Europe is China’s key economic partner and an ‘economic pillar’ supporting China’s growth on the international stage. Beijing strives to maintain Europe’s open attitude towards the Chinese economy, in particular its exports, technology transfer to China, location of investments and diversification of China’s currency reserves. Cooperation with Europe and support from Europe are necessary to enable China to improve its position in the international economic and financial system, mainly in order to legitimise China’s actions in the area of multilateralism and global governance. Similarly, Beijing attaches great importance to maintaining Europe’s non-involvement in two issues: China’s core interests and Chinese-American relations.

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Anatomia rosyjskiej wojny informacyjnej. Operacja krymska - studium przypadku

Author(s): Jolanta Darczewska / Language(s): Polish / Publication Year: 2014

Wojny informacyjne mają w Rosji długą tradycję. W ostatnich latach zostały zdefiniowane na nowo na gruncie teorii geopolityki, w myśl której są one środkiem do osiągania celów państwa w polityce międzynarodowej i wewnętrznej oraz jego geopolitycznej przewagi. Geopolityka dostarcza także ideologicznych uzasadnień strategii rywalizacji Rosji z Zachodem. W opozycji do ideologii liberalizmu promuje „neokonserwatywne mocarstwo postliberalne, walczące o sprawiedliwy świat wielobiegunowy, broniące tradycji, wartości konserwatywnych, prawdziwej wolności”. W kontekście rywalizacji „cywilizacji eurazjatyckiej” z „cywilizacją atlantycką pod przywództwem USA” objaśnia kryzys wewnętrzny na Ukrainie oraz przyczyny aneksji Krymu przez Rosję. Tekst stanowi próbę zrekonstruowania zarysu teorii wojen informacyjnych wyłaniającego się z prac czołowych przedstawicieli rosyjskiej geopolityki, Igora Panarina i Aleksandra Dugina, a także jej praktycznego zastosowania podczas operacji krymskiej.

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Conflict-dependent Russia. The domestic determinants of the Kremlin's anti-western policy

Author(s): Maria Domańska / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2017

The Kremlin’s foreign policy is subordinate above all to the domestic political aims of the ruling elite. The most important of these is the maintenance and legitimistaion of the Chekist-kleptocratic model of feudalism. In this model, which is fundamentally opposed to the Western model of liberal democracy, the state is the de facto property of a small group of decision-makers, and the rules of international interactions are dictated by the logic of the ‘zero-sum game’. The Kremlin’s confrontational approach to the West – at the political, economic, social and propaganda levels – is not a transitional phenomenon, but rather a permanent, strategic Leitmotiv of Russia’s foreign policy. It results from the intrinsic features of the Russian authoritarian regime, and from the mentality of the ruling elite included within it. The latter is largely a product of a particular type of society and of the specific path of the state’s historical development. In such conditions, is any real normalisation of relations between Russia and the West possible?

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Homo Dżihadicus

Author(s): Maciej Falkowski,Józef Lang / Language(s): Polish / Publication Year: 2015

Obszar postsowiecki, obok państw Bliskiego Wschodu, Afryki Północnej i Europy Zachodniej, stał się jednym z głównych globalnych „eksporterów” bojowników islamskich. Obecnie na terytorium Syrii, a w mniejszym stopniu również Iraku, walczy kilka tysięcy wychodźców z państw postsowieckich. Podłożem zjawiska emigracji wojennej z państw byłego ZSRR na Bliski Wschód są dynamiczne zmiany wewnątrz islamu na obszarze postsowieckim, przede wszystkim rozwój salafizmu i wojującego islamu oraz internacjonalizacja i globalizacja tamtejszego islamu. Głębokie zmiany polityczne, ekonomiczne, społeczne i ideologiczne, jakim podlegali muzułmanie po rozpadzie ZSRR, doprowadziły do wyłonienia się wśród nich specyficznej grupy, dla której islam w jego radykalnej wersji stał się podstawowym elementem tożsamości. Człowiek sowiecki, nie wyzbywając się do końca swojej sowieckości, stał się homo dżihadicusem – człowiekiem nie tylko utożsamiającym się ze światową ummą, ale też gotowym w imię wyznawanych idei opuścić własny kraj i włączyć się w dżihad poza jego granicami.

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Nie chodzi (tylko) o Erikę Steinbach. Trzy mity niemieckiego dyskursu o wysiedleniach

Author(s): Anna Kwiatkowska-Drożdż / Language(s): English,Polish / Publication Year: 2010

The activity of the Federation of Expellees (German: Bund der Ver triebenen, BdV) and its chairperson Erika Steinbach, including efforts aimed at establishing the Centre Against Expulsions1 (ZgV) have been and will continue to be a source of controversy in Germany’s domestic policy, as well as in Polish–German and Czech–German relations. Steinbach has become a central figure in German inter-party conflicts and in disputes with the country’s immediate neighbours. In her efforts to gain more publicity for injustice and suffering in the German past she has resorted to controversial methods and has thus latched onto another stage in the historical debate on the consequences of World War II. This time it is related to and interpreted from the point of view of the German victims.

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'The power gained, we will never surrender' Russian ruling elite versus the succession and economic crisis

Author(s): Jadwiga Rogoża / Language(s): English,Polish / Publication Year: 2009

Even though the economic crisis proved harmful to the Russian economy and people's living standards, it has nonetheless failed to make the elite revise its policy. Despite some problems, the government has managed to sustain economic and political stability, thanks to the reserves it amassed in the times of prosperity, and to the propaganda campaign that protected it, above all Vladimir Putin. The crisis failed to force the elite to implement deeper structural and political reforms. Moreover, it has actually reinforced existing tendencies, such as state control over the economy and its oil-oriented character, the elite's economic expansion at the expense of private businesses, and the preservation of political power. Thus, the crisis has so far failed to dismantle Putinism, indeed quite the reverse - it has in fact contributed to its becoming 'set in stone'.

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Publisher: Ośrodek Studiów Wschodnich im. Marka Karpia