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Publisher: OSW Ośrodek Studiów Wschodnich im. Marka Karpia

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Painful adaptation. The social consequences of the crisis in Russia
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Painful adaptation. The social consequences of the crisis in Russia

Painful adaptation. The social consequences of the crisis in Russia

Author(s): Jan Strzelecki / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russian economy;Russian society;Russian Federation (RF);Vladimir Putin;econic crises;social costs;

The Russian economy has experienced what has proven to be the most painful crisis for society since Vladimir Putin became President of the Russian Federation for the first time. The crisis has worsened the financial situation of all classes of Russian society due to the high inflation rate and a decrease in real wages. It has severely impacted the standards of living of the most politically active segments of the middle class residing in big cities. For a large portion of society the crisis implies a permanent degradation and the need to focus on physical survival in a situation of poverty and extreme poverty. Crisis caused the decline in the social mood, what sometimes triggers isolated economically-motivated protests. Most of the time, society chooses not to manifest its discontent but to adapt to the new reality by focusing on individual survival strategies and limiting consumption. The government’s tactic aimed at minimising the likelihood of further protests mainly involves stepping up the repressive nature of the system and bolstering official propaganda. This is contributing to a progressing atomisation of society and hampering society’s self-organisation.

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The language issue in Ukraine. An attempt at a new perspective
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The language issue in Ukraine. An attempt at a new perspective

The language issue in Ukraine. An attempt at a new perspective

Author(s): Tadeusz A. Olszański / Language(s): English

Keywords: Ukraine;Ukrainian language;language policy;politics of history;

Ukraine has been an independent state for only 20 years and the consequence of the long-term incorporation of Ukrainian lands into the Russian/Soviet state is an ethnically mixed society. In Ukraine, alongside Ukrainians, there are very many Russians and members of other nationalities of the former Soviet Union as well as a still large group of people who identify themselves as Soviets (in terms of their nationality). A significant part of Ukrainians use Russian in their everyday life (particularly professional) while knowing Ukrainian to only a small degree or not at all. Due to this Kyiv has to implement a language policy (which does not have to be pursued in e.g. Poland or Hungary) in search of solutions to ensure the stable functioning of a modern state for a multilingual society. The language issue is therefore an important challenge for the Ukrainian state and one of the more significant issues in Ukraine’s internal politics. In this text I eschew a detailed analysis of the question of Crimea as its social dynamics (also in the language area) is clearly distinct from the remaining part of Ukraine for four reasons: the short-term character of the region’s links with Ukraine, its relative geographic isolation (Crimea is almost an island), the formal autonomy of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea, and the presence of the Crimean Tatar community which is demanding the recognition of its language rights.

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Bundeswehr 3.0. The political, military and social dimensions of the reform of the German armed forces
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Bundeswehr 3.0. The political, military and social dimensions of the reform of the German armed forces

Bundeswehr 3.0. The political, military and social dimensions of the reform of the German armed forces

Author(s): Justyna Gotkowska / Language(s): English

Keywords: Bundeswehr; German armed forces; German foreign and security policy;security;

This reform of the Bundeswehr, launched in 2011, is the latest of the three decisive stages in the post-war transformation of the German armed forces. The reform aims at “constructing” the armed forces anew in the political, military and social dimensions.The present paper presents the evolution of the role of the armed forces in German foreign and security policy and the ongoing process of “constructing” a new Bundeswehr. It analyses the process of redefining the objectives and principles of: the Bundeswehr’s participation in international operations, its current military transformation, and changes in its image and social identity. It also presents the implications of this broader transformation for political and military.

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Bundeswehr 3.0. The political, military and social dimensions of the reform of the German armed forces
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Bundeswehr 3.0. The political, military and social dimensions of the reform of the German armed forces

Bundeswehra 3.0. Polityczny, wojskowy i społeczny wymiar reformy sił zbrojnych RFN

Author(s): Justyna Gotkowska / Language(s): Polish

Keywords: Bundeswehra; niemieckie siły zbrojne;bezpieczeństwo;

Rozpoczęta w 2011 roku reforma Bundeswehry to jeden z trzech przełomowych etapów w powojennej transformacji sił zbrojnych RFN. Ma na celu „skonstruowanie” na nowo niemieckiej armii w wymiarze politycznym, wojskowym i społecznym. Niniejszy tekst przedstawia ewolucję roli sił zbrojnych w polityce zagranicznej i bezpieczeństwa RFN i proces „konstruowania” nowej Bundeswehry.W tekście omówiona została redefinicja celów i zasad zagranicznego zaangażowania Bundeswehry, kierunki przekształceń wojskowych, zmian wizerunku i społecznej tożsamości armii oraz konsekwencje tak szeroko pojętej reformy dla współpracy politycznej i wojskowej w ramach NATO i UE.

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A captive island: Kaliningrad between Moscow and the EU
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A captive island: Kaliningrad between Moscow and the EU

A captive island: Kaliningrad between Moscow and the EU

Author(s): Jadwiga Rogoża,Agata Wierzbowska-Miazga,Iwona Wiśniewska / Language(s): English

Keywords: Kaliningrad District;Russian political system; EU borderland;Russian Federation (RF);

The Kaliningrad region can be called a 'captive island', because of its specific geopolitical location - it is part of the Russian legal, political and economic space, yet it is geographically separated from the rest of the Russian Federation, and it is particularly open to co-operation with its neighbours in the European Union. Moscow is trying to compensate the region for its separation, offering it financial support and economic privileges.At the same time, it is sensitive to any potential challenges to Russia's territorial integrity - and the centre's desire for control over the region often limits the latter's potential for cooperation and internal development. This report presents the situation in the region, and is intended to help develop a model for its effective regional co-operation with its EU neighbours.

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The oligarchic democracy. The influence of business groups on Ukrainian politics
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The oligarchic democracy. The influence of business groups on Ukrainian politics

The oligarchic democracy. The influence of business groups on Ukrainian politics

Author(s): Sławomir Matuszak / Language(s): English

Keywords: Ukraine;Ukrainian politics;Ukrainian political system;Oligarchs; business and politics

The Ukrainian oligarchic system, which developed into its ultimate shape during Leonid Kuchma’s second presidency, turned out to be very durable. The nature of close relations between the government and the oligarchs has not undergone any major changes either as a consequence of the Orange Revolution or following Victor Yanukovych’s victory in the presidential election of 2010. Although reshuffles have taken place inside the political and business elites, nothing seems to be able to change this system, at least in the medium term.This text is aimed at presenting the network of connections existing between big business and politics in Ukraine and at pointing to the key oligarchic groups and the political forces they support. A definite majority of papers concerning contemporary Ukrainian politics as a rule disregard or deal with this subject very superficially, while it is impossible to understand modern Ukraine without understanding a number of dependencies existing between the political and business elites there.

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The Gas Target Model for the Visegrad 4 Region
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The Gas Target Model for the Visegrad 4 Region

The Gas Target Model for the Visegrad 4 Region

Author(s): Sergio Ascari / Language(s): English

Keywords: natural gas policy; Gas Target Model (GTM);V4 Countries;energy sector;energy security;

The similarity of issues and geographical proximity have led the Visegrad 4 countries (V4) to undertake closer collaboration in natural gas policy, notably by agreeing on a common security of supply strategy, including regional emergency planning, and a common implementation of the Gas Target Model (GTM) that European regulators have proposed for the medium-long term design of the EU gas market, and which has been endorsed by the Madrid Regulatory Forum. As a contribution to this collaboration, the present paper will analyse how the GTM may be implemented in the V4 region, with a view to maximize the benefits that arise from joint implementation. A most relevant conclusion of the GTM is that markets should be large enough to attract market players and investments, so that sufficient diversity of sources may be reached and market power indicators are kept below dangerous levels. In most cases, this requires physical and/or virtual interconnection of present markets, which is also useful to achieve the required security of supply standards, as envisaged in the Regulation 994/2010/EC.

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The turn to the East. The flawed diversification of Russian foreign policy
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The turn to the East. The flawed diversification of Russian foreign policy

The turn to the East. The flawed diversification of Russian foreign policy

Author(s): Witold Rodkiewicz / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russian foreign policy;Russian Far East;Russian-Chinese relations;Asian countries;

The ‘turn to the East’ proclaimed by Russia in 2010 has failed to bring about a fundamental breakthrough in her relations with Asian countries, nor has it produced impulses for the economic modernization of Russia’s Far Eastern territories. Although the energisation of Russian policy towards Asia which has taken place under this slogan has diversified Russian foreign policy somewhat, this diversification has two weak points: Firstly, it has occurred only in the political sphere. The share of Asian countries in Russia’s foreign economic relations has not risen significantly in comparison with the share of European and North American countries. Secondly, the ‘turn to the East’ has turned out primarily to be a turn towards China. In all spheres – diplomatic, economic, energy and military – it is Beijing that has become the most important Asian partner for Moscow. The result is that the policy that aimed to limit the excessive – in the Kremlin’s view – dependence of Russia on the West is likely to turn Russia into a ‘junior partner’ of the People’s Republic of China.

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The turn to the East. The flawed diversification of Russian foreign policy
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The turn to the East. The flawed diversification of Russian foreign policy

Zwrot na Wschód. Ułomna dywersyfikacja rosyjskiej polityki zagranicznej

Author(s): Witold Rodkiewicz / Language(s): Polish

Keywords: Russian foreign policy;Russian Far East;Russian-Chinese relations;Asian countries;

„Zwrot na Wschód”, proklamowany w 2010 roku przez Rosję, nie przyniósł fundamentalnego przełomu w jej relacjach z państwami Azji ani nie dał impulsów do ekonomicznego rozwoju rosyjskiego Dalekiego Wschodu. I chociaż realizowana pod tym szyldem aktywizacja rosyjskiej polityki w Azji przyniosła pewną dywersyfikację polityki zagranicznej, to dywersyfikacja ta ma dwa mankamenty. Po pierwsze, ograniczona jest do sfery politycznej. Udział państw Azji w międzynarodowych więziach gospodarczych Rosji nie zwiększył się w porównaniu z udziałem Europy i Ameryki Północnej. Po drugie, „zwrot na Wschód” okazał się przede wszystkim zwrotem w kierunku Chin. Na wszystkich płaszczyznach – dyplomatycznej, gospodarczej, energetycznej i wojskowej – Pekin stał się najważniejszym azjatyckim partnerem Moskwy. W konsekwencji polityka, której celem było ograniczenie nadmiernego, zdaniem Kremla, uzależnienia Rosji od Zachodu, może uczynić z Rosji „młodszego partnera” Chin.

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Hostages to Moscow, clients of Beijing. Security in Central Asia as the role of the West diminishes
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Hostages to Moscow, clients of Beijing. Security in Central Asia as the role of the West diminishes

Zakładnicy Moskwy, klienci Pekinu. Bezpieczeństwo w Azji Centralnej w dobie malejącej roli Zachodu

Author(s): Maciej Falkowski,Józef Lang / Language(s): Polish

Keywords: Russia;China;Central Asia;security;regional power;

Koniec zachodniej obecności wojskowej w Azji Centralnej oznacza marginalizację wpływu Zachodu na sferę bezpieczeństwa w regionie oraz faktyczne wycofanie się z zaangażowania w rywalizację geopolityczną. Jeśli chodzi o architekturę bezpieczeństwa, nie należy również oczekiwać większej aktywności Chin niechętnych konfrontowaniu się z Rosją, świadomych własnych ograniczeń w tej sferze oraz postrzegających USA jako głównego globalnego rywala. W perspektywie najbliższych kilku lat decydujące znaczenie, jeśli chodzi o system twardego bezpieczeństwa w Azji Centralnej, będzie miała polityka Rosji. Jednym z jej celów będzie dążenie do umocnienia obecności wojskowej i rozszerzenia współpracy w ramach Organizacji Układu o Bezpieczeństwie Zbiorowym. Prawdopodobna rosyjska dominacja w architekturze bezpieczeństwa w regionie nie będzie jednoznaczna z przejęciem przez Rosję faktycznej odpowiedzialności za bezpieczeństwo ani tym bardziej podjęciem próby rozwiązania problemów regionalnych.

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On the periphery of global jihad. The North Caucasus: the illusion of stabilisation
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On the periphery of global jihad. The North Caucasus: the illusion of stabilisation

Na peryferiach światowego dżihadu. Kaukaz Północny: iluzja stabilizacji

Author(s): Maciej Falkowski / Language(s): Polish

Keywords: the North Caucasus;jihad;Russian Federation (RF);Islam;jihadism;jihadist terrorism;

W porównaniu z latami ubiegłymi sytuacja na Kaukazie Północnym uległa stabilizacji, głównie w wymiarze działalności islamskiego podziemia zbrojnego. Przyczyną tego zjawiska są zmiany ideologiczne w obozie bojowników, które doprowadziły do rozmycia walki zbrojnej na Kaukazie w globalnym dżihadzie i jej marginalizacji wobec priorytetowego frontu bliskowschodniego. Stabilizacji sprzyja kryzys organizacyjny Emiratu Kaukaskiego i odpływ bojowników na Bliski Wschód, jak również skuteczność stosowanej przez Moskwę polityki „kija i marchewki”. Uspokojenie sytuacji na Kaukazie jest jednak nietrwałe, ma bowiem charakter sytuacyjny, a nie systemowy. Nie jest efektem rozwiązania nabrzmiałych problemów regionu, generujących chroniczną niestabilność i sprzyjających cywilizacyjnemu oddalaniu się Kaukazu od Rosji. W warunkach kryzysu gospodarczego bądź politycznego w Rosji grozi to odmrożeniem kaukaskich konfliktów, w tym reaktywacją czeczeńskiego separatyzmu i wpisanej w globalny dżihad idei Emiratu Kaukaskiego.

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Potemkin conservatism. An ideological tool of the Kremlin
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Potemkin conservatism. An ideological tool of the Kremlin

Potiomkinowski konserwatyzm. Ideologiczne narzędzie Kremla

Author(s): Witold Rodkiewicz,Jadwiga Rogoża / Language(s): Polish

Keywords: Vladimir Putin; conservative ideology;Russia;conservatism;Novorossiya;

Od początku trzeciej kadencji prezydenckiej Władimir Putin konsekwentnie odwołuje się do ideologii konserwatywnej. Legitymizuje w ten sposób nową strategię polityczną Kremla, której celem jest stabilizacja reżimu i zablokowanie politycznej mobilizacji społeczeństwa wokół haseł liberalnych. Strategia ta ma też umocnić legitymizację istniejącego modelu władzy, określając go jako „tradycyjny” dla Rosji oraz uzasadnić represyjną i antyzachodnią politykę władz. Obejmuje ona także politykę reintegracji przestrzeni postsowieckiej pod egidą Moskwy, w szczególności aneksję Krymu i projekt Noworosja. Strategia ta została sformułowana jako odpowiedź na aktywizację zwolenników liberalizacji w Rosji – nowej klasy średniej i części elit administracyjnych i biznesowych, które na przełomie 2011/2012 roku otwarcie zamanifestowały rozczarowanie reżimem. Jednak rozdźwięk pomiędzy konserwatywną frazeologią Kremla a realnym postępowaniem elity rządzącej dowodzi, iż „projekt konserwatywny” Kremla ma charakter czysto instrumentalny, co w dłuższej perspektywie podważa jego wiarygodność w oczach rosyjskiego społeczeństwa i stawia pod znakiem zapytania jego skuteczność.

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The great leap. Turkey under Erdogan
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The great leap. Turkey under Erdogan

The great leap. Turkey under Erdogan

Author(s): Marek Matusiak / Language(s): English

Keywords: Turkey;AKP;Turkish politics;Turkish political parties;Recep Tayyip Erdogan;Middle East; Turkish reforms;

Since the AKP took power in 2002, Turkey has seen a replacement of the state’s elites, a real change of the political system and a redefinition of the state identity. All this has been accompanied by economic development and rapid social transformation. The pro-democratic reforms and improved prosperity in the first decade of the AKP’s rule created the opportunity for Turkey to become part of the West in terms of legal and political standards, while maintaining its cultural distinctness. However, from the point of view of Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the leader of a new Turkey, the political reforms turned out not to be a goal per se but a means to the end of achieving a monopoly on power. Once this goal was achieved, Erdogan began leading Turkey towards the status of an autocratic state focused on the Middle East and resentful towards the West. This trend is unlikely to be reversed under Erdogan’s rule. However, even if the government were to change, there would be no return to the Turkey from before the AKP era. In turn, the Turkish public will have to answer the questions regarding its civilisational identity and the vision of the political and social order.

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The great leap. Turkey under Erdogan
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The great leap. Turkey under Erdogan

Wielki skok. Turcja pod władzą Erdoğana

Author(s): Marek Matusiak / Language(s): Polish

Keywords: Turkey;AKP;Turkish politics;Turkish political parties;Recep Tayyip Erdogan;Middle East; Turkish reforms;

Od objęcia władzy przez AKP w 2002 roku w Turcji nastąpiła wymiana elit państwowych, faktyczna zmiana systemu politycznego oraz redefinicja tożsamości państwa. Towarzyszył temu rozwój gospodarczy i dynamiczne przemiany społeczne. Prodemokratyczne reformy oraz wzrost dobrobytu w pierwszej dekadzie rządów AKP stworzyły szansę, aby Turcja zachowując odrębność kulturową stała się częścią Zachodu w wymiarze standardów prawnych i politycznych. Jednak z perspektywy lidera nowej Turcji, Recepa Tayyipa Erdoğana reformy polityczne okazały się nie być celem samym w sobie, ale narzędziem uzyskania monopolu władzy. Osiągnąwszy cel, Erdoğan zaczął kierować Turcję w stronę państwa autokratycznego, skoncentrowanego na Bliskim Wschodzie, żywiącego resentyment wobec Zachodu. Pod władzą Erdoğana odwrócenie tego trendu nie jest prawdopodobne. Jednak nawet w przypadku zmiany władzy do Turcji sprzed epoki AKP nie będzie powrotu. Tureckie społeczeństwo będzie zaś musiało odpowiedzieć na pytanie o swoją tożsamość cywilizacyjną, wizję porządku politycznego i społecznego.

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Development co-operation made in Germany
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Development co-operation made in Germany

Development co-operation made in Germany

Author(s): Kamil Frymark / Language(s): English

Keywords: Germany;development policy;development cooperation;German economy;German foreign policy;

For years, development policy has attracted the attention of public opinion in Germany and been strongly supported by the public. It takes the form of an agreement between equal partners who draw mutual benefits from this co-operation. German development policy is structured to support the German economy. This policy and the state’s significant share in development projects reduces the investment risk incurred by German entrepreneurs who engage their assets in developing countries. Furthermore, bilateral co-operation successfully builds the made in Germany brand as regards both development policy and further economic co-operation, making the beneficiaries of development co-operation indirectly dependent on German goods and services. Development co-operation, along with diplomacy and defence policy, is the third pillar of German foreign policy. In this context it plays above all a preventive function in the case of international conflicts. Investing funds as part of development projects in areas affected by military conflicts or facing a high risk of military conflict is viewed by Germany as its contribution to overcoming crises or removing their causes. This goes hand in hand with the conviction that international conflicts, wherever they appear, adversely affect the German economy, which heavily relies on exports.

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The Middle East in the shadow of the Islamic State
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The Middle East in the shadow of the Islamic State

The Middle East in the shadow of the Islamic State

Author(s): Krzysztof Strachota / Language(s): English

Keywords: Islamic State (ISIS);Middle East; para-state; regional proxy war;regional power;

One year on from the victorious offensive and announcement of the caliphate, Islamic State is gaining strength as a terrorist organisation which has an army and a para-state of its own. This is breaking apart the fragile order in the Middle East. The world is fascinated with the phenomenon of Islamic State, failing to notice that the Middle East is going through a crisis – and this is the main challenge. IS is an embodiment of the region’s problems and one of its symptoms but it is not the cause of them. The Middle East as we know it is ceasing to exist; borders and countries are vanishing (Iraq and Syria), new para-state entities are coming into existence, new players are entering the stage (from IS to Kurds), and a generation who do not know the old order and are searching for new radical ideas and recipes are growing up. The melting of the Western/US security umbrella stimulates the regional proxy war and regional powers’ (Iran and Turkey) attempts to fundamentally change the post-colonial order. For the West, the concerns about Islamic State are a shadow of the concerns about the future of the Middle East as a whole and the awareness that neither the hard methods (interventions in Iraq) nor the soft methods (promotion of Western values and development model) used in this region over the past few decades are currently working.

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Ramzanistan. Russia's Chechen Problem
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Ramzanistan. Russia's Chechen Problem

Ramzanistan. Russia's Chechen Problem

Author(s): Maciej Falkowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Chechnya;Ramzan Kadyrov;Moscow;Grozny;Caucasus;Russian domestic politics;

The political activity and growing independence of Chechnya’s leader Ramzan Kadyrov raises questions about his loyalty and the possibility of his openly renouncing his servitude to Moscow. Such a scenario seems unlikely because of the dependence of Kadyrov’s regime on Russia. He is burdened by his republic’s financial dependence, the stain of collaboration and the crimes committed on his own people, and so his regime cannot exist without Moscow’s support. However, Kadyrov’s dependence on Moscow and the apparent stability of the situation in Chechnya do not mean that a lasting peace has been established there. The current plan for governing the republic and the relationship between Moscow and Grozny is a temporary solution, based not on durable solutions, but on the situational convergence of the Kremlin and Kadyrov’s interests. A change of government in the Kremlin, or to an even greater degree a domestic crisis in Russia which weakens its position in the Caucasus, would mean the fall of Kadyrov’s regime, and the reactivation of pro-independence rhetoric in Chechnya.

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In the shadow of history. Romanian-Moldovan relations
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In the shadow of history. Romanian-Moldovan relations

W cieniu historii. Stosunki rumuńsko-mołdawskie

Author(s): Kamil Całus / Language(s): Polish

Keywords: Romania;Moldova; Romanian-Moldovan relations;national identity;Romanian policy towards Moldova;Russian-speaking minority;

Rumunię i Mołdawię łączą bardzo silne więzy wynikające przede wszystkim z wielu lat wspólnej historii (w tym wspólnej państwowości), języka oraz dorobku kulturowego. Ta bliskość z jednej strony sprzyja budowaniu stosunków dwustronnych, z drugiej zaś stanowi dla nich także poważne obciążenie. Mołdawska państwowość oraz tożsamość budowana jest bowiem niejako w opozycji do państwowości i tożsamości rumuńskiej. Część społeczeństwa (szczególnie mniejszość rosyjskojęzyczna) obawia się bliższej współpracy z Bukaresztem, widząc w niej zagrożenie utratą niepodległości i zapowiedź zjednoczenia z zachodnim sąsiadem. Historyczny sentyment znajduje także odbicie w polityce Bukaresztu wobec Mołdawii. Oficjalnie stosunki z Kiszyniowem uważane są za szczególne, a przedstawiciele rumuńskiej klasy politycznej prześcigają się w deklaracjach pomocy i poparcia dla wschodniego sąsiada, odwołując się przy tym do wspólnoty narodowej, kulturowej i językowej. W praktyce jednak polityka Rumunii wobec Mołdawii (a co za tym idzie, także wzajemne stosunki) kształtowana jest najczęściej nie przez sentymenty, lecz przez polityczny pragmatyzm wynikający m.in. z chęci zdobycia poparcia rumuńskiego elektoratu.

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Russophobia in the Kremlin’s strategy. A weapon of mass destruction
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Russophobia in the Kremlin’s strategy. A weapon of mass destruction

Rusofobia w strategii Kremla. Broń masowego rażenia

Author(s): Jolanta Darczewska,Piotr Żochowski / Language(s): Polish

Keywords: Russophobia; political identity;Russia;Russia and the West;

Budowanie obrazu rusofobicznych państw jest obecnie jednym z instrumentów budowania neoimperialnej tożsamości politycznej obywateli FR, ich mobilizacji w obliczu domniemanego zagrożenia, a także formą przywrócenia im komfortu psychologicznego wobec fiaska posunięć Kremla (np. na Ukrainie). Zmitologizowany stereotyp państw rusofobicznych pozostaje ponadto prostym objaśnieniem napięć w relacjach między Rosją a Zachodem.

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The role of Central Europe in the German economy. The political consequences
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The role of Central Europe in the German economy. The political consequences

The role of Central Europe in the German economy. The political consequences

Author(s): Konrad Popławski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Germany;Central Europe;economic relations; Visegrád Group;modernisation;

Recent publications allow us to conclude that the economic relations between Germany and Central Europe have come to the ‘end of history’, and nothing new will happen. However, a deeper analysis of these relationships reveals interesting new trends. Since joining the European Union the states of Central Europe have not settled for maintaining the average level of economic development, but have continued to narrow the distance between them and Western Europe, something which the global financial crisis did not prevent. Their improved economic situation also affected their relations with Germany. The latest results from the Visegrád Group states show them to be Germany’s most important trading partner, and their balance of trade in goods is in a state of equilibrium, while many euro area countries have recorded high trade deficits with Germany. The aim of this report is to display the trends in trade and investment between Germany and Central Europe, based on the example of the Visegrád Group. The author will also attempt to answer the question of whether the advancing economic cooperation between Germany and the V4 countries will lead to the further modernisation of those countries’ economies, or whether it will run the risk of leaving them in the ‘middle income trap’.

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