Publisher: OSW Ośrodek Studiów Wschodnich im. Marka Karpia

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Exporting Jihad – Islamic terrorism from Central Asia

Exporting Jihad – Islamic terrorism from Central Asia

Author(s): Józef Lang / Language(s): English

Keywords: Jihad; Islamic terrorism; Central Asia

The terrorist attack in Stockholm on April 7th was perpetrated by a citizen of Uzbekistan. Previously, on April 3rd an ethnic Uzbek from Kyrgyzstan holding Russian citizenship conducted an attack on the subway in Saint Petersburg. These attacks were preceded by other large scale terrorist attacks conducted by Islamic radicals from Central Asia within the last 12 months. It shows the rising potential of radical Islamic groups and organisations originating from the countries of the region. Within Central Asia itself the level of the terrorist threat is low, owing to mass surveillance and widespread persecution of independent Islamic groups by the au- thoritarian regimes of regional states. These actions, however, led to radicalisation of individ- uals and entire groups, followed by them leaving the country to join Islamic terrorist organisations abroad (previously in Afghanistan and Pakistan, currently in Syria and Iraq). During the last decade, Islamic radicals from Central Asia were engaged in terrorist activities worldwide – from the USA, through Afghanistan, Pakistan and Syria, to Turkey and countries of the European Union. The trend of radicalised individuals migrating outside of Central Asia will most likely increase in the future, due to demographic pressures in the region, rising authoritarian tendencies and the scale of persecution. Therefore, the terrorist threats arising for European Union from the radical Islamic militants from Central Asia will probably also increase.

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The Putin doctrine: The formation of a conceptual framework for Russian dominance in the post-Soviet area

The Putin doctrine: The formation of a conceptual framework for Russian dominance in the post-Soviet area

Author(s): Marek Menkiszak / Language(s): English

Keywords: Putin; Putin doctrine; post-Soviet era; international relations; cold war

The statements made in recent weeks by Russian of cials, and especially President Vladimir Putin, in connection with Moscow’s policy towards Ukraine, may suggest that the emergence of a certain doctrine of Russian foreign and security policy is at hand, especially in relation to the post-Soviet area. Most of the arguments at the core of this doctrine are not new, but recently they have been formulated more openly and in more radical terms. Those arguments concern the role of Russia as the defender of Russian-speaking communities abroad and the guarantor of their rights, as well as speci cally understood good neighbourly relations (meaning in fact limited sovereignty) as a precondition that must be met in order for Moscow to recognise the independence and territorial integrity of post-Soviet states. However, the new doctrine also includes arguments which have not been raised before, or have hither- to only been formulated on rare occasions, and which may indicate the future evolution of Russia’s policy. Speci cally, this refers to Russia’s use of extralegal categories, such as national interest, truth and justice, to justify its policy, and its recognition of military force as a legitimate instrument to defend its compatriots abroad.This doctrine is effectively an outline of the conceptual foundation for Russian dominance in the post-Soviet area. It offers a justi cation for the efforts to restore the unity of the ‘Russian nation’ (or more broadly, the Russian-speaking community), within a bloc pursuing close integration (the Eurasian Economic Union), or even within a single state encompassing at least parts of that area. As such, it poses a challenge for the West, which Moscow sees as the main opponent of Russia’s plans to build a new order in Europe (Eurasia) that would undermine the post-Cold War order.

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The prospects for the EU-Ukraine free trade agreement

The prospects for the EU-Ukraine free trade agreement

Author(s): Rafał Sadowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU-Ukraine; free trade agreement

The European Union and Ukraine initialled the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area Agreement (DCFTA) on 19 July 2012. The scope of the agreement which the EU and Ukraine reached following their negotiations is much more extensive than that of a typical free trade agreement. It envisages not only the lifting of tariff and extra-tariff barriers but also, more importantly, Kyiv adopting EU legal solutions and standards in this area.Whether the agreement will be signed and implemented is still an open question and depends on the existing political conditions. On the one hand, the repression imposed by the government in Kyiv on its political opponents (including the detention of the former prime minister, Yulia Tymoshenko) has provoked criticism from the EU, which refuses to sign the agreement if the government in Kyiv continues to violate democratic principles. The manner in which Ukraine’s parliamentary elections are conducted this October will be the key test. On the other hand, Russia is increasingly active in its efforts to involve Ukraine in the integration projects it has initiated (the Customs Union and the Eurasian Economic Community). It should be noted that Moscow has effective instruments to exert its will, such as the dependence of the Ukrainian economy on supplies of Russian oil and gas and on exports to the Russian market. Besides, Moscow also has political instruments at its disposal.It is impossible to participate in integration projects both with the EU and with Russia. Therefore, Kyiv will have to make a strategic decision and choose the direction of its economic integration. Unless Ukraine takes concrete action to implement its agreements with the EU, primarily including the free trade agreement, its economic dependence on Russia will grow, and it will be more likely to join the Russian integration projects.

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The story that never ends. A new stage in the energy dispute between Russia and Belarus

The story that never ends. A new stage in the energy dispute between Russia and Belarus

Author(s): Szymon Kardaś,Kamil Kłysiński / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; Belarus; energy; international relations

The energy sector is an essential area in Russian-Belarusian relations. Belarus is almost totally dependent on oil and gas supplies from Russia, and preferential prices are necessary for Minsk to maintain its outdated economic model and social stability. Russia in turn has used the mechanism of subsidising Belarus as a means to bolster its political influence. The disagreements between Minsk and Moscow over the rules of co-operation and oil and gas prices provoke regular disputes on the subject of energy.Over the past few years, the situation in the area of energy co-operation has become more strained due to Russia’s desire to optimise the costs of supporting its Belarusian ally alongside its growing disappointment with this ally’s disloyalty. This has been accompanied by the escalating recession on the Belarusian economy forcing the Belarusian government to apply for more and more subsidies. As a result, another Russian-Belarusian energy dispute has been escalating since the beginning of 2016, turning into an unprecedentedly long and profound crisis extending over almost all aspects of co-operation between the two countries. In April this year, the two parties developed a package of agreements regulating most of the problems, most importantly this includes the conditions of oil and gas supplies in the coming years. However, in practice, many issues remain unclear, and this creates room for further conflicts. Moscow and Minsk are moderately satisfied with the deal and treat it as a temporary compromise. It is clear that the two parties do not trust one another and have conflicting goals. Belarus still hopes for significantly higher subsidies, but is attempting to assert its independence in domestic and foreign policy. In turn, the Kremlin, which has been reducing the subsidies, would only be ready to increase its support at the price of Minsk becoming unconditionally subordinate to Moscow.

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The constitutional referendum – another step towards a New Turkey

The constitutional referendum – another step towards a New Turkey

Author(s): Krzysztof Strachota / Language(s): English

Keywords: constitutional referendum; Turkey

On 16 April the citizens of Turkey voted in a national referendum to amend the constitution. This will lead to a radical strengthening of the president’s power. 51.4% of the voters backed the amendments. They will come into force after the next presidential and parliamentary election (scheduled for 2019). The amendments are an important step in the thorough reconstruction of the Republic of Turkey which began in 2002. They will strengthen the position of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in legal terms, and – with all the controversies that entails – will adjust the legal status to the situation on the ground. The outcome of the referendum helps to temporarily stabilise the internal situation in Turkey and allows the country to be more active on the international arena; this includes making another attempt to thoroughly revise its relations with the EU. However, the amendment of the constitution is of a technical nature and is a means rather than an end in the process of building a New Turkey. Thus the calming of the situation in Turkey is temporary.

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In the clutches of the Kremlin. Azerbaijan’s security policy

In the clutches of the Kremlin. Azerbaijan’s security policy

Author(s): Aleksandra Jarosiewicz / Language(s): English

Keywords: Kremlin; Azerbaijan; security policy

The changes which have been taking place over the past few years in Azerbaijan’s international environment and the growing concern about internal stability have led to President Ilham Aliyev’s regime to thoroughly revise the country’s security policy by establishing closer relations with Russia and opening up to co-operation with Iran. One consequence of this move was Azerbaijan’s victory in the so-called Four-Day War in Nagorno-Karabakh in April this year – a symbolic success in military terms which nevertheless brought about a real political breakthrough. Baku has chosen the political rapprochement with Russia because it has no other alternative. Over the past three years, Azerbaijan has revised its risk assessment and has reached the conclusion that the West cannot guarantee its security, Turkey’s policy is unpredictable, and the strengthening position of its traditional enemy, Iran, generates threats to Azerbaijan. The rapprochement with Russia is a tactical solution intended at helping maintain internal stability and to weather the unfavourable geopolitical, economic and social conditions. The co-operation with the Kremlin has brought tangible benefits: a new dynamic in the conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh (beneficial to Azerbaijan); and a strengthening of the regime’s stability, which is necessary during a continuing economic slump. In strategic terms, closer relations with Russia in fact mean a withdrawal from the previous vision of Azerbaijan’s foreign policy based on co-operation with the West and Turkey. The consequences of this turn towards Russia will include a further bolstering of the authoritarian regime, restricting Azerbaijan’s political subjectivity and making it part of the geopolitical bloc being built by Russia in the post-Soviet area, for example, as part of the Eurasian Economic Union. The situation in Azerbaijan will also depend on the emerging anti-Western Russian-Iranian-Turkish concert of powers which Baku may also join.

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Russia’s ‘Middle East’: the escalation of religious conflicts in the Northern Caucasus

Russia’s ‘Middle East’: the escalation of religious conflicts in the Northern Caucasus

Author(s): Maciej Falkowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Northern Caucasus; Dagestan; Chechnya; Ingushetia; Middle East

The eastern part of the Northern Caucasus (Dagestan, Chechnya and Ingushetia) is becoming an increasingly distinct region in cultural, civilisational and social terms when compared to the rest of the Russian Federation. The situation on the ground there bears greater resemblance to the Middle East than to Russia: Islam is the key factor organising socio-political life, and conflicts inside the Muslim community, often involving bloodshed, are the driving power of developments in the region. The conflict is between the two main branches of Islam in the Northern Caucasus: Sufism linked to the official clergy and government, and Salafism which is gaining more and more supporters among young people in the Caucasus. Tension, including clashes over mosques, attacks, mass detentions, etc. has been observed mainly in Dagestan and Ingushetia.

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A new opening in relations between the EU and the Western Balkans

Nowe otwarcie w stosunkach Unia Europejska – Bałkany Zachodnie

Author(s): Marta Szpala / Language(s): Polish

Keywords: EU; WEstern Balkans

The EU–Western Balkans Summit on 17 May in Sofia – the first such event since 2003 – is one of the examples of the growing interest of the EU in the Balkan countries aspiring to membership. On 6 February, the European Commission presented a new policy strategy for the Western Balkans. The will for greater involvement in the region is also indicated by the visits of the President of the European Commission Jean-Claude Juncker and the President of the European Council Donald Tusk to all the countries of the region in recent months. The activities of the EU institutions are accompanied by actions taken towards the Balkans by the member states under the banner of the Berlin Process, which focuses on economic cooperation. The new dynamics in the EU's policy towards the Western Balkans is the result of the growing awareness in Brussels of the threats resulting from the crisis of the enlargement policy – ​​the main EU instrument intended to ensure lasting stability in the region.

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Winning the war with Russia. The West’s counter-strategy towards Moscow

Winning the war with Russia. The West’s counter-strategy towards Moscow

Author(s): Marek Menkiszak / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine is aimed at subjugating or destroying this country, upending the current political and security order in Europe and forcing a major revision of the global order. The conflict is systemic and will continue as long as Putin’s dictatorial regime remains in power in Moscow. Although Russia is failing in Ukraine, it has not abandoned its maximalist goals. It is crucial to weaken Russia’s ability to wage this war and to foster regime change. These efforts should include a short-term surge of pressure through support for Ukraine to help it achieve decisive success on the battlefield as well as a long-term strategy of confrontation with Russia based on several political, economic and security pillars. This requires further consolidation of the Western community in the political, security and economic areas, public acceptance of the strategy’s goals and the formation of a global coalition of countries to defend the basic principles of the international order.

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Germany bids farewell to coal. The next stage of the Energiewende

Germany bids farewell to coal. The next stage of the Energiewende

Author(s): Michał Kędzierski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Germany; Energiewende

The phasing out of coal (Kohleausstieg) is the next stage of Germany’s energy transformation, after nuclear power plant shutdowns. Lignite and hard coal still play an important role in the German energy sector, but are also a significant source of carbon emissions. It will not be possible to reach the country’s climate policy targets without abandoning these resources. This is a major challenge in terms of energy system restructuring on the one hand, and the various, often conflicting political, economic and social interests on the other. Meeting the new, more ambitious climate goals requires the new government to clearly accelerate the decarbonisation of the economy, including the coal phase-out in particular. This report is an attempt to comprehensively address this issue as the new term of the Bundestag is about to start. It presents the role of coal in Germany’s energy sector, the context of the debate on the Kohleausstieg and the significance of a social compromise in the political initiation of this process. It includes an explanation of the coal phase-out mechanism adopted in the Act of 3 July 2020, while the issue of the restructuring of mining regions is also explored. Finally, the consequences of the transformation are set out and the perspectives of its course in the coming years are outlined.

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Israels Palestinian challenges. The state’s identity, a leadership crisis and the "new" Middle East

Israels Palestinian challenges. The state’s identity, a leadership crisis and the "new" Middle East

Author(s): Karolina Zielińska / Language(s): English

Keywords: Israel; Palestine

The conflict with the Palestinian side is a long-term existential challenge for Israel. A resolution of the dispute or its absence will be decisive for the future ethnic character of this state and for its political system, as well as its external and internal security. This text highlights the key parameters of the dispute from the Israeli perspective and reveals what internal and external factors are shaping their approaches to the issue. In particular, it emphasises the role of interested social groups, the significance of the formation of the “government of change”, the importance of a new regional reality and the involvement of the United States. Windows of opportunity pertaining to the dynamisation and evolution of the international context of the conflict do not change the nature of the Palestinian challenges to Israel and the inevitability of confronting them. They also do not guarantee that a fundamental breakthrough will emerge within the foreseeable future.

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The breadbasket of the world. Agricultural development in Ukraine

The breadbasket of the world. Agricultural development in Ukraine

Author(s): Sławomir Matuszak / Language(s): English

Keywords: Agricultural development; Ukraine

The aim of this study is to provide a comprehensive overview of the Ukrainian agricultural sector in the light of the act on introducing an agricultural land market adopted in March 2020, which partially came into force in mid-2021 and will fully enter into force in 2024. It will allow, for the first time in the history of independent Ukraine, the free and legal trade in agricultural land. This will have far-reaching consequences both for local agriculture and for the country as a whole. The development of the agricultural sector, which has already progressed at an impressive rate in recent years, can be expected to accelerate further still. It should be remembered that Ukraine is the largest country in Europe in terms of area (excluding the Russian Federation) and more than half of its territory is covered by very fertile soils. The vast majority of the country has a climate favourable for agricultural production – the land is characterised by a long growing season for plants, plenty of sunshine and no problems with shortages of water for agriculture. The state thus has excellent conditions for this type of economy.

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The Beijing-Moscow axis. The foundations of an asymmetric alliance

The Beijing-Moscow axis. The foundations of an asymmetric alliance

Author(s): Witold Rodkiewicz,Jakub Jakóbowski,Michał Bogusz / Language(s): English

Keywords: Beijing-Moscow

The asymmetric alliance between Russia and China is the product of a long and unevenly paced process of relation-building that was launched by both sides shortly after the collapse of the Soviet Union. It was driven by the mutually felt necessity to regulate bilateral contacts (including the resolution of border disputes, adjustment of spheres of influence in the common neighbourhood), find common answers to global strategic challenges and, above all, a shared sense of a structural conflict with the United States.The Beijing-Moscow axis is, however, not merely an alliance between two states, but primarily an alliance between two authoritarian regimes that define their national interests in terms of maximising their chances of survival, to which end they have been striving to revise the existing world order. Both the Kremlin and Zhongnanhai see the international environment as the main source of threats to the political stability of their rule. Therefore, they share a common interest in shaping a global order that would provide the best conditions from the point of view of their continued existence. The fear of the West and of its ideological influence on their own societies serves to strengthen the alliance even further. To the Russian and Chinese elites, it is not any specific policy of the US or the European Union that poses an existential threat to them, but the very existence of a democratic alternative to their systems of government.

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Assisted assertiveness. Changes in Bulgaria’s policy towards Russia

Assisted assertiveness. Changes in Bulgaria’s policy towards Russia

Author(s): Mateusz Seroka / Language(s): English

Keywords: Bulgaria’s policy towards Russia

In March 2021, during the run up to the parliamentary elections, the Bulgarian counter-intelligence cracked a Russian espionage network that had been collecting information, including on Bulgaria’s activity in NATO. This was not the first blow Russian intelligence has received in recent years. Since tensions began in 2019, Sofia has expelled nine Russian diplomats. The intensity of the disputes between the two countries contrasts with the traditionally good relations between them. In Bulgarian historical memory, Russia appears most often as a close ally in the fight against the Ottoman Empire. The Kremlin’s great influence was also preserved after the fall of communism due to Bulgaria’s dependence on Russian fossil fuels. Unexpectedly, however, after 2014 a series of tensions arose between Sofia and Moscow, which seem to indicate that the two countries are growing apart. This publication analyses to what extent the strains result from the internal evolution of the Bulgarian public, and to what extent they are caused by the pressure on the country from its Western partners.

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Drought in the Czech Republic. The political, economic and social consequences

Drought in the Czech Republic. The political, economic and social consequences

Author(s): Krzysztof Dębiec / Language(s): English

Keywords: Czech Republic; drought

The Czech Republic is an example of a state in which drought has become a key issue in public debate. In the Czech Republic, 2020 was the seventh consecutive year of a drought that is considered the most severe in 500 years, and which differs from the previous ones in that it is more prolonged and is characterised by considerably higher temperatures. At its peak, every fifth municipality was exposed to the risk of water scarcity, which was particularly evident in southern Moravia and in north-western regions. The situation is further complicated by the fact that for many years Prague was focusing on the construction of a flood control system and on the mitigation of the consequences of floods. At present, the Czech Republic has the smallest freshwater resources of all the inland EU member states. Despite a gradual improvement in the situation, recorded since May 2020, the problem involving groundwater scarcity has not been fully eliminated, and experts – taking account of long-term climate change trends and structural problems faced by the Czech agricultural and forestry sectors – are expecting a recurrence of an even more severe drought in a couple of years at the latest. A closer look at the Czech Republic’s struggle with drought may prompt more comprehensive analyses regarding the water management policy pursued in Central Europe, a region which is becoming increasingly affected by recurrent droughts.

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Cinderella became the Empress. How Merkel has changed Germany

Cinderella became the Empress. How Merkel has changed Germany

Author(s): Anna Kwiatkowska-Drożdż / Language(s): English

Keywords: Merkel; Germany

Angela Merkel is the first woman to climb to the top of German politics. Step by step, to the surprise of her male rivals inside the party, she took over the leadership on the political scene of Germany, and then of the European Union. Efficiency was the leitmotif of her four terms. As a technocrat with a social ear, she turned out to be a master in dominating the political centre. Because of her, Germany’s Christian Democrats underwent an ideological evolution. She also greatly contributed to a significant weakening of the SPD and to the creation of the Eurosceptic and anti-immigrant Alternative for Germany. For an aging and wealthy German society, she was the embodiment of stability and predictability. Her rule, overshadowed by the global economic crisis, provided the citizens of Germany with what is most valuable: prosperity and security. Despite her successes in defending the German status quo, Merkel did not prepare the state and society for the inevitable changes in the international environment. The growing inequalities in the eurozone, the successes of political populism, migrations, the destructive policies of Russia and China, the backlog in the digitisation of education and industry will be described as phenomena and processes with which her governments largely failed.

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New ideas for total defence. Comprehensive security in Finland and Estonia

New ideas for total defence. Comprehensive security in Finland and Estonia

Author(s): Piotr Szymański / Language(s): English

Keywords: Finland; Estonia

In recent years, the Nordic and Baltic region has witnessed a growing interest in the concept of comprehensive security, which hails from the Cold War doctrine of total defence. This originates from the regional pivot to territorial defence and countering hybrid threats. A comprehensive approach to security is considered a driver for enhancing national resilience and for ensuring the best possible operational environment for armed defence. It incorporates military and non-military aspects of national security, and crisis management. Finland and Estonia stand out with respect to a comprehensive security strategy. Among the Nordic countries, Finland has the longest continuous tradition of a comprehensive approach to security, rooted in its strategic culture and societal background, while Estonia was the first of the Baltic states to begin building a comprehensive security system (already in 2008). The aim of this report is to present the concepts for comprehensive security in the Nordic and Baltic states, focusing on Finland and Estonia as case studies, and to analyse the practical ways in which comprehensive security is achieved in the two countries.

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Fortress Kaliningrad. Ever closer to Moscow

Fortress Kaliningrad. Ever closer to Moscow

Author(s): Maria Domańska,Szymon Kardaś,Marek Menkiszak,Jadwiga Rogoża,Andrzej Wilk,Iwona Wiśniewska,Piotr Żochowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Kaliningrad; Moscow

The purpose of the present paper is to analyse the most important changes that have taken place in the Kaliningrad Oblast since 2016. Part One analyses the dynamics of the political and social situation with special focus on: changes in the relations between the federal centre and the oblast; the situation within the power elite; and the development of civil society activities. Part Two is devoted to analysing the economic situation and looks in particular into social and economic indicators and the evolution of Moscow's policy towards the region, including its transport and energy projects. Part Three delves into the oblast's relations with the external world, including its cross-border contacts and co-operations, the movement of people and economic exchange. Finally, Part Four is devoted to the evolution of the internal security situation and policy, and the expansion of Russia's military potential in the region.Moscow's policy towards the Kaliningrad Oblast has been increasingly consistent in recent years. Its main objective has been to further tighten its grip on the region and its links to mainland Russia in the political, social and economic dimension. As a result, the Kaliningrad Oblast has been made more subordinated to Moscow, which is in line with a general trend in the relations between Russia's central government and the regions.

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Between overt disinformation and covert practice. The Russian special services’ game

Between overt disinformation and covert practice. The Russian special services’ game

Author(s): Jolanta Darczewska / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; special services

It is generally believed that one sign that the secret services are doing their job well is media silence. In this respect, Russia is a special case: the services receive an excess of media coverage, which is part of the country’s information warfare. The artificial, mythologised image of the services conflicts with their non-public practices. These are revealed when their cover is blown, in journalist investigations and when the opposition publicises cases where the special services act illegally. The media coverage of the Skripals’ case was a model example. It brought the Russian special services back into current debate, and the rhetoric of secret killings reinforced their negative image as a lawless force. It also triggered a consolidated reaction from Western states and international organisations. The Russian special services now have to deal with ever stronger defences in the West. But that does not mean they will stop undertaking activities in the information space, including cyberspace, which may offer the Kremlin convenient tools to influence the global situation. On the contrary, Russia will aim to deploy a full range of information-war forces and measures.

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Industry 40. Germany’s new industrial policy

Industry 40. Germany’s new industrial policy

Author(s): Rafał Bajczuk,Konrad Popławski / Language(s): Estonian

Keywords: Germany; industrial policy

For several decades industry has been the strength of the German economy. The Fourth Industrial Revolution, characterised by the wide use of the internet &digital technologies in all spheres of the economy, is transforming the market in ways which threaten the position of German manufacturing sectors. The challenge for Germany lies in new innovative leaders and IT tycoons entering the automotive sector, who have ambitious plans to create self-driving cars fully integrated with digital technologies. In turn, the German machine industry is afraid of competition from China, which is rapidly catching up, as it has vast financial resources to develop innovation and buy up foreign technology. The German state’s response to the challenges ahead lies in the Industry 4.0 concept, i.e. the construction of entire production plants capable of autonomously coordinating production processes amongst themselves. German companies need to gain dominant positions on the markets for smart devices and self-driving cars, urban mobility systems, complex systems for producing energy from renewable sources, and improving energy efficiency. This requires a radical change in German manufacturers’ existing business models, an increase in their competence in the use of digital technologies, and ensuring access for companies to modern IT infrastructure and the data they need.

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