Publisher: OSW Ośrodek Studiów Wschodnich im. Marka Karpia

The End Of The Myth of a brot herly Belarus? Russian soft power in Belarus after 2014: the background and its manifestations

The End Of The Myth of a brot herly Belarus? Russian soft power in Belarus after 2014: the background and its manifestations

Author(s): Kamil Kłysiński,Piotr Żochowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia;Belarus;Russian-Belarusian relations;Russian soft power;

The Russian narrative on Belarus changed in 2014, when Russian expert circles and the government elite essentially redefined their perception of their Belarusian ally in the context of the conflict in Ukraine and the escalation of tensions between Moscow and the West. Alyaksandr Lukashenka, who was distancing himself from Moscow’s aggressive policy towards Kyiv, finally ceased to be viewed as the only and sufficient guarantor of keeping Belarus within the sphere of Russian influence. This gave rise to growing conviction in Russia that Moscow controls Minsk to an insufficient degree; the instruments of control are the energy sector (oil and gas supplies), trade (preferences on Russian output) and the military sector (close co-operation between the armies of the two countries). As a result, actions to create socio-cultural soft power promoting the ‘Russian World’ values, which had previously been taken on a very limited scale, were intensified.

Crisis in Russia. The degradation of the model of economic governance

Kryzys w Rosji. Degradacja modelu zarządzania gospodarką

Author(s): Maria Domańska / Language(s): Polish

Keywords: Russian economy;economic crisis;Russia;stagnation;governance;

Aktualny kryzys gospodarczy w Rosji jest warunkowany przede wszystkim politycznie. Stanowi on dowód poważnej dysfunkcjonalności modelu zarządzania sferą ekonomiczną, podporządkowanego partykularnym interesom elity władzy. Utrzymujące się do 2014 roku wysokie ceny ropy naftowej umożliwiały realizację tego modelu przy relatywnie niewielkich kosztach społecznych. Obecnie jednak, z uwagi na utrzymujące się niskie ceny ropy oraz brak wewnętrznych źródeł długofalowego wzrostu gospodarczego, Rosji grozi długotrwała stagnacja. Będzie ona prowadzić do nieuchronnej degradacji rosyjskiej gospodarki, a przede wszystkim – warunków życia społeczeństwa. Władze nie zamierzają jednak przeprowadzać reform strukturalnych, ich celem pozostaje konserwacja aktualnego systemu kontroli nad sferą polityczną i społeczną. Czy w tych warunkach możliwe jest w Rosji przesilenie polityczne? Czy władze powinny się obawiać „kolorowej rewolucji” lub buntu elit?

The great decommunisation. Ukraine’s wartime historical policy

The great decommunisation. Ukraine’s wartime historical policy

Author(s): Tadeusz A. Olszański / Language(s): English

Keywords: Ukraine; decommunisation

The war with Russia which began in 2014 has triggered serious changes in the way history is thought about by the Ukrainian public, especially in opinion-forming circles. The liberal reflection critical about the nationalist tradition initiated somewhat earlier has been rejected since wartime requires heroic narratives above all. Ukraine also had to counteract the propaganda offensive from Russia which wanted to equate the Ukrainian patriotic movement with radical nationalism seen at the time of World War II, which it branded as ‘fascist’. As a result of the war, the Ukrainian public, even its Russian-speaking section, turned their backs on Russia and its traditions. Ukraine has seen a radical decommunisation of the public space since the Revolution of Dignity; almost all monuments bearing Soviet content (except for war monuments) have been removed and almost all the names of cities, towns and villages and a significant part of the names of streets and institutions referring to the Communist regime have been changed. This process is still not over but has not been resisted by the public or regional elites.

Putin’s Cossacks. Folklore, business or politics?

Putin’s Cossacks. Folklore, business or politics?

Author(s): Jolanta Darczewska / Language(s): English

Keywords: Putin; Russia

Russia’s Cossacks evoke extreme opinions among observers: some see them as a marginal social phenomenon, a kind of political folklore; others as a morally and physically healthy part of the nation, a pillar of the modern paramilitary formations which defend the national and cultural borders of the Russian Federation. This text is an attempt to interpret this issue in terms of a socio-political process, which has resulted in the transformation of a spontaneous, bottom-up movement into one monitored and directed from the top down. Regardless of this fundamental change, the Cossacks (or more specifically, the ‘neo-Cossacks’) still define themselves as a cultural and historical community, with the aid of such characteristics as a defensive, pro-state mentality, a militarised lifestyle and service to the state, the Orthodox religion, and their distinct traditions and customs. The first part of this analysis examines the official narrative of neo-Cossackdom through the prism of key concepts. These (the Cossack state, the Cossack register, registered Cossacks, the Cossack state service) carry a large dose of misinformation, because they have been torn out of their historical context and placed in today’s Russian realities. The second part is devoted to Russia’s strategic policy objectives regarding the neo-Cossacks, and the organisational system set up to implement this policy. The text closes with a list of the functions assigned to the Cossacks, i.e. the long-term interests of the Kremlin linked to them.

The EU Strategy for the Danube Region. The implications for Poland and the Visegrad Group

The EU Strategy for the Danube Region. The implications for Poland and the Visegrad Group

Author(s): Mateusz Gniazdowski,Tomáš Strážay / Language(s): English

Keywords: European Union; Danube Region; Poland; Visegrad Group

The Danube strategy is the second example, after the Baltic Sea strategy, of the growing importance of macro-regions in the EU. The regional policy is being more and more often looked at through the prism of not only ensuring internal cohesion but also promoting better connection for a country with its external – both EU and non-EU environment. Poland is a Baltic Sea strategy contributor, but has not been incorporated into the inner circle of states preparing the Danube strategy. The challenge for the Visegrad Group is to define a position on the role of macro-regional strategies in building the cohesion of Central Europe and the harmonic development of the whole EU. Demands for a better co-ordination of EU policies and funds in order to pursue macro-regional strategies should also be treated as a call for closer co-operation between Poland and its southern neighbours who are directly involved in the Danube strategy.

THE MENACE OF A 'BROWN' RUSSIA. Ethnically motivated xenophobia - symptoms, causes and prospects for the future

THE MENACE OF A 'BROWN' RUSSIA. Ethnically motivated xenophobia - symptoms, causes and prospects for the future

Author(s): Agata Dubas / Language(s): English,Polish

Keywords: Russia; xenophobia

In late August and early September 2006, Kondopoga, a town of 40,000 inhabitants in Russia's Republic of Karelia, became the scene of ethnic riots. The pretext for the outbreak was one specific incident - a fight in a café between the local Russians and a group of Chechens and Azeris, in which two Russians were killed. Several days later, members of the nationalist organisation Movement Against Illegal Immigration arrived in the town and skilfullymanipulated public sentiments by organising rallies in which the demonstrators' demands included the expulsion of all Caucasian immigrants from the region. At night-time, property belonging to members of the Caucasian community was burned or destroyed. It was only several days later that the tense situation was calmed. This event soon took on a symbolic force and received a great deal of attention throughout Russia. For some, mainly Russian nationalists, Kondopoga became a 'hero city' and a harbinger of national revival, whereas for others, in particular human rights activists, it was a model example of the outbreak of openly chauvinistic sentiments among ethnic Russians. The events in Kondopoga, together with several other widely discussed incidents in 2006 (including the attack on 21 August in Moscow's Cherkizovskiy Market where most of the merchants were immigrants from Asia, and 10 people were killed and nearly 50 injured), put the problem of rising xenophobia in Russian society at the centre of attention. This paper focuses on the ethnic dimension of xenophobia, as understood as aversion, fear or hostility vis-a-vis members of other nationalities, as well as the related radical nationalist ideas founded on the concept of the dominant (and often discriminatory) role of the Russians in the Russian Federation, with reference to racism or neo-Nazism. This text primarily presents xenophobia as an enormous social problem in today's Russia, which is not being addressed at the moment, but is instead being exploited by both the authorities and radical nationalist groups. This paper attempts to describe and understand the causes of xenophobia and the reasons for the popularity of extremely nationalist views among ethnic Russians. It also seeks to estimate the scale of the problem and the potential threat it may create in the future. The first part describes the different manifestations of xenophobia in presentday Russia. It identifies the groups most exposed to ethnically motivated violence and persecution, as well as the most xenophobic communities, and discusses the scale of the problem and its specific characteristics in the context of Russian reality. The second part looks into the underlying causes of xenophobic sentiments among Russians, while the last chapters delve into the authorities' attitude towards the problem and seek to answer the question of whether radical nationalist ideas may in future come to dominate Russia's political scene.

The failure of integration. The CIS and other international organisations in the post-Soviet area, 1991-2006

The failure of integration. The CIS and other international organisations in the post-Soviet area, 1991-2006

Author(s): Wojciech Konończuk / Language(s): English,Polish

Keywords: CIS; post-Soviet area

1. Institutional integration processes in the post-Soviet area have ended in failure. It proved impossible to transform the Commonwealth of Independent States into an instrument of real co-operation, even though Russia, which was the most interested in integrating the post-Soviet space, made repeated efforts to this end. The CIS never managed to accomplish its declared objectives and, from this point of view, it does not exist as an integration organisation and de facto never did. 2. Integration within the CIS framework was bound to fail from the start due to objective reasons, in particular the fact that Russia's political, economic, population and territorial potential greatly exceeded those of the other member states. Fifteen years on, the organisation is still nothing more than a forum for periodic top-level meetings that provide an opportunity for bilateral and multilateral consultations. The term 'CIS' has been replaced by 'the CIS area'. 3. As integration within the group of twelve states failed, Russia started to initiate the creation of smaller regional organisations of which it was also a member, such as the Eurasian Economic Community (EurAsEC), the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) and the Common Economic Space (CES). Co-operation within these structures remained largely superficial and ineffective, and their main objective was to preserve Russian political influence in the regions concerned. The practice of post-Soviet institutional co-operation proves that the former Soviet countries are still unable to establish effective integration structures, either in the 'twelve' format or in smaller groups. 4. Integration processes in the post-Soviet area failed because the foreign policy priorities of individual CIS members grew increasingly dissimilar, and because the CIS countries strove to become independent of Russia. Any international organisation established in the post-Soviet area in which Russia was a member would inevitably become dominated by Moscow. On the other hand, any organisation excluding Russia but with its centre in the CIS would be seen by Moscow as anti-Russian.

The European Union and Moldova /// Relations between Turkey and the European Union /// European Prospects of the Western Balkans

The European Union and Moldova /// Relations between Turkey and the European Union /// European Prospects of the Western Balkans

Author(s): Jacek Wróbel,Adam Balcer,Stanisław Tekieli / Language(s): English,Polish

Keywords: European Union; Moldova; Turkey; Western Balkans

After the accession of Romania, scheduled for 2007, the European Union will directly border Moldova. As a result, the EU-Moldova relations, which Brussels has rather neglected so far, will gain increased importance. The assumption behind the EU's policy is that Moldova is not going to join the Union, though theoretically, such a development is not precluded. Chisinau does indeed aspire to join the European Union. The EU is interested in Moldova chiefly because of the threat this country may pose to the security of the Union's future south-eastern outskirts. This concern about security stems from Moldova's serious instability, and especially from the existence of the separatist Transnistrian Moldovan Republic, which is involved in various illegal or semi-legal businesses and provides a stronghold to crime. This paper deals with the EU policy towards Moldova and the multiple facets of this policy, the most important of which seems to be the preclusion of Moldova's accession in the foreseeable future. It also discusses Moldova's political responses to the EU policy and the country's own initiatives. Finally, this paper also covers the legal framework of the co-operation between Brussels and Chisinau, the Community's assistance to Moldova and its implementation, the EU policy towards the conflict in Transnistria and the Union's (current and projected) role in its settlement as well as the plans for future co-operation between the two sides.

The resource wealth burden - oil and gas sectors in the former USSR

The resource wealth burden - oil and gas sectors in the former USSR

Author(s): Agata Loskot-Strachota / Language(s): English

Keywords: USSR; Russia

The former USSR area plays a great role in the international oil and gas market. Russia is a real gas giant, with the richest deposits of this material in the world. Russia is also the main exporter of natural gas to many European countries. Keeping a strong position in this market remains a priority for the Russian Federation's economic policy. Europe is a very attractive region because its demand for gas is expected to grow steadily, while its own gas production keeps decreasing. In the long term, the Far East will be an important market for Russian exports, too. According to estimates, demand there will grow even faster than in Europe. Caspian gas producers, for the time being, can not really compete with Russia in this field, and this status quo will most probably be preserved in the nearest future. The post-Soviet countries also have substantial oil deposits. Among CIS members, Russia has the richest oilfields; Kazakhstan comes second, with large proven deposits of petroleum. In the Eurasian market, raw materials coming from the former USSR area are the major alternative to oil produced by OPEC countries. Russia does not belong to the cartel, and during the last two years, when international oil prices remained high, it continued to substantially increase both the production levels and exports. European countries are the main consumers of Russian petroleum, yet in the future, Russia may strengthen its role in such markets as the USA, Japan and other countries trying to become less dependent on OPEC oil. A boost in production and exports by Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan, countries situated by the Caspian Sea, should also be expected in the next five years. The significance of this region for the international market is bound to grow when new oil transport routes, independent of Russia, are opened (see chapter Export potential of the post-Soviet region). This collection of papers attempts to give an accurate and clear description of the main characteristics and of the key problems pertaining to the oil and gas sectors in the former USSR. It is aimed at showing the wealth and production and export opportunities on the one hand and at outlining a number of problems that now limit the development of trade in energy materials in this region and might impede it in the future. These issues seem to be of particular importance in the context of the dilemmas facing the Polish and European energy security policy. This report consists of five studies, focusing on: the resources and export potential of the Commonwealth of Independent States countries, Russian policy towards the entire oil and gas sector in the former USSR area and in the countries of the former Eastern bloc, and the role the energy resources potential plays in Russian foreign policy. Also, the studies outline the situation of the so-called transit countries, i.e. the ones controlling major export pipelines for Russian oil and gas, discuss the importance of foreign direct investments for the oil and gas sectors, as well as the opportunities and dangers that natural resource wealth might pose to the development of CIS countries. In terms of geographic coverage, the studies pertain to both key oil or gas producers (Russia, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan) and the important transit countries for energy resources from CIS area (Ukraine, Belarus, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia). While working on this project, we used the generally available literature, statistical yearbooks, specialist press and agency and internet news bulletins. We also want to acknowledge the valuable comments from CIS countries oil and gas experts, whom we to talked to while working on this project.

2002 Parliamentary Elections in Ukraine. Events, Results, Consequences

2002 Parliamentary Elections in Ukraine. Events, Results, Consequences

Author(s): Tadeusz A. Olszański / Language(s): English,Polish

Keywords: Parliamentary Elections; Ukraine

On 31 March 2002, parliamentary elections were held in Ukraine. As expected, they were a major success for the centrist-rightist coalition focused around former Prime Minister Viktor Yuschenko. The communists emerged significantly weaker from the vote, and the "party of power" achieved a poor result. Yet, due to the mixed electoral law (half of the deputies were elected in single-mandate districts), the latter block, firmly supported by President Leonid Kuchma, resulted as the main force in Parliament. The results of particular parties and blocks were as follows: Viktor Yuschenko's Block received 23.57% of votes and 112 seats, the Communist Party of Ukraine - 19.98% of votes and 66 seats, the "For One Ukraine" block - 11.77% of votes and 101 seats, Yulia Tymoshenko's Block - 7.26% of votes and 22 seats, the Socialist Party of Ukraine - 6.87% of votes and 22 seats, and the Social Democratic Party of Ukraine (united) - 6.27% of votes and 24 seats. This shows how the mixed electoral regulations favour "For One Ukraine" and act against Yuschenko's block. One should note, however, that the latter gained the support of less than one quarter of voters.

The Free State of Bavaria. The end of the CSU’s sovereign duchy?

The Free State of Bavaria. The end of the CSU’s sovereign duchy?

Author(s): Kamil Frymark / Language(s): English

Keywords: Germany; Bavaria; Christian Social Union; German politics; Alternative für Deutschland; German government;

The Christian Social Union (CSU) has ruled Bavaria continuously for sixty years. The CSU’s domination of the state’s political scene, together with its influence on federal policies through its partnership with the CDU in the Bundestag, has made the party one of the most effective groups in Europe. This was confirmed in the election to Bavaria’s Landtag in October 2018, which the CSU has won once again. At the same time, the party is being confronted by other conservative groupings, mainly Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), which has a similar profile to the CSU in several aspects. This, combined with the outflow of similarly sized groups of voters to the AfD and to the Greens, as well as to Freie Wähler, means the CSU is facing a new challenge that involves creating a comprehensive political agenda without losing the party’s conservative identity. The purpose of this report in to present the place the CSU occupies on the political map of Germany and the importance of this grouping for Bavaria. It discusses the changes happening both within the CSU and in Bavaria itself and the possible scenarios for the development of the party and of the state. To study these processes, the author has mainly used the methodology of observing political developments and analysing documents published by the German government, as well as Bavaria’s laws and documents compiled by the CSU. This has been complemented by interviews with German experts.

The Free State of Bavaria. The end of the CSU’s sovereign duchy?

Wolny Kraj Bawaria. Koniec udzielnego księstwa CSU?

Author(s): Kamil Frymark / Language(s): Polish

Keywords: Germany; Bavaria; Christian Social Union; German politics; Alternative für Deutschland; German government;

W Bawarii nieprzerwanie od sześćdziesięciu lat rządzi Unia Chrześcijańsko- Społeczna (CSU). Dominacja CSU na landowej scenie politycznej oraz jej wpływ na politykę federalną poprzez wspólną frakcję z Unią Chrześcijańsko- -Demokratyczną (CDU) w Bundestagu uczyniły z tej partii jedno z najbardziej skutecznych ugrupowań w Europie. Potwierdziły to wybory do parlamentu związkowego Bawarii w październiku 2018 roku, które CSU po raz kolejny wygrała. Jednocześnie partia jest konfrontowana z innymi ugrupowaniami konserwatywnymi, przede wszystkim Alternatywą dla Niemiec (AfD), która ma w kilku aspektach zbliżony profil do CSU. Zarazem odpływ podobnie licznych grup wyborców do AfD i do partii Zielonych, a także do Wolnych Wyborców stawia CSU przed nowym dylematem stworzenia szerokiej oferty programowej bez utraty konserwatywnej tożsamości. Celem opracowania jest przedstawienie miejsca CSU na mapie politycznej RFN oraz znaczenia tego ugrupowania dla Bawarii. Zarysowano zmiany zachodzące zarówno w CSU, jak i kraju związkowym, wskazano także możliwe scenariusze rozwoju partii oraz landu. Do zbadania tych procesów wykorzystano przede wszystkim metodę obserwacji wydarzeń politycznych oraz analizę niemieckich dokumentów rządowych, aktów prawnych landu Bawarii oraz dokumentów CSU. Przeprowadzono także rozmowy z niemieckimi ekspertami.

Frustration and hope. Slovakia after Kuciak’s murder

Frustracja i nadzieja. Słowacja po zabójstwie Kuciaka

Author(s): Krzysztof Dębiec,Jakub Groszkowski / Language(s): Polish

Keywords: Slovakia; presidential elections; ruling coalition; social democracy; foreign policy; reforms; immigrants; Kuciak’s murder;

Słowackie wybory prezydenckie z marca 2019 roku pokazały wyraźnie linie i skalę podziałów w tamtejszym społeczeństwie. Główną ich osią jest stosunek do najsilniejszej partii koalicji rządzącej Smer-Socjaldemokracja byłego premiera Roberta Ficy, sprawującej władzę na Słowacji od 2006 roku z jedną krótką przerwą (2010–2012). Coraz większą rolę zaczyna jednak odgrywać także podział na zwolenników dalszej integracji Słowacji w strukturach Zachodu oraz przeciwników prozachodnich elit, którzy dążą do tego, aby pod hasłem obrony suwerenności radykalnie przedefiniować politykę zagraniczną państwa. Biorąc to pod uwagę, słowackie społeczeństwo można podzielić na trzy główne grupy: tych, którzy domagają się odejścia skompromitowanych elit i usprawnienia działania państwa, bez reorientacji polityki zagranicznej; tych, którzy chcą przede wszystkim stabilności i obawiają się poważniejszych zmian; a także tych, którzy chcą wymiany elit oraz radykalnej zmiany systemu politycznego i polityki zagranicznej.

Excess cultural baggage. Social mobilisation in an authoritarian Russia

Ile waży bagaż kulturowy. Aktywizacja społeczna w autorytarnej Rosji

Author(s): Jadwiga Rogoża / Language(s): Polish

Keywords: Russia; social mobilisation; civic initiatives; protests; government inefficiency; cultural policy; political repression; state of culture; politics and culture;

Wśród istotnych procesów toczących się w Rosji w ostatniej dekadzie opisu i analizy wymaga aktywizacja społeczna – kształtujące się nawyki podejmowania oddolnych działań, tworzące się poziome sieci społeczne, duża liczba formalnych i nieformalnych inicjatyw obywatelskich, zarówno politycznych, jak i apolitycznych. Aktywizacja ta nie może jednak być rozpatrywana w oderwaniu od ewolucji całego modelu państwa, który – zwłaszcza po roku 2012 – notuje wzrost represyjności oraz spadek efektywności gospodarczej. Główne pytanie, jakie stawia niniejszy tekst, dotyczy uwarunkowań, które sprawiają, że aktywizacja społeczna i wzrost niezadowolenia obywateli z kondycji państwa skutkują jedynie krótkotrwałymi i lokalnymi wybuchami protestu i nie przekładają się na zmianę całego modelu zarządzania. W tym kontekście rozpatrzone zostały zarówno czynniki bieżące i personalne, jak i długofalowe uwarunkowania kulturowe, społeczne i polityczne.

Defenders of the besieged fortress. Notes on the historical legitimisation of Russia’s special services

Obrońcy oblężonej twierdzy. Uwagi na temat historycznej legitymizacji służb specjalnych Rosji

Author(s): Jolanta Darczewska / Language(s): Polish

Keywords: Russia; special services; history of special services; Soviet services; political system; historical legitimisation of secret services; KGB; ruling elite;

W niniejszym tekście wskazuję główne wątki narracji na temat pamięci historycznej służb specjalnych Federacji Rosyjskiej, świadczące o próbach pogodzenia tradycji służb carskich z tradycjami służb sowieckich. Wychodzę przy tym z założenia, że historia służb jest częścią historii aparatu państwa, a szerzej – historii systemów politycznych. W tym kontekście wysiłek rosyjskich historiografów skupia się nie tylko na połączeniu dwóch pod wieloma względami wykluczających się tożsamości Rosji: carskiej i totalitarnej, ale przede wszystkim na tworzeniu paraleli między sytuacją historyczną i współczesną. Historyczna legitymizacja służb jest bowiem istotnym czynnikiem nadającym prawomocność obecnej elity władzy, wywodzącej się w dużej mierze z KGB, a działającej w warunkach nowego ustroju kapitalizmu państwowego.

Putin’s Cossacks. Folklore, business or politics?

Kozacy Putina. Folklor, biznes czy polityka?

Author(s): Jolanta Darczewska / Language(s): Polish

Keywords: Russia; Vladimir Putin; Cossacks; folklore; political folklore; business; politics; culture; militarised lifestyle; pro-state mentality; Orthodox values; Russian statehood; identity;

Rosyjskie kozactwo budzi wśród obserwatorów skrajne opinie: przez część jest traktowane jako marginalne zjawisko społeczne, folklor polityczny, przez innych – jako moralnie i fizycznie zdrową część narodu, filar nowoczesnych formacji paramilitarnych broniących granic państwowych i kulturowych Rosji. W tekście podjęto próbę interpretacji tego problemu w kategoriach procesu społeczno-politycznego. Doprowadził on do przekształcenia oddolnego, spontanicznego ruchu w ruch sterowany odgórnie, kontrolowany. Niezależnie od tej zasadniczej zmiany, kozactwo (ściślej – neokozactwo) nadal definiuje się jako wspólnotę historyczno-kulturową, za pomocą takich wyróżników, jak: propaństwowa i obronna mentalność, zmilitaryzowany styl życia i służba państwowa, wyznanie prawosławne, odrębne tradycje i obyczaje. W części pierwszej – przez pryzmat kluczowych pojęć – przybliżono oficjalną narrację na ten temat. Omawiane pojęcia (stan kozacki, rejestr kozacki, kozactwo rejestrowe, kozacka służba państwowa) niosą sporą dawkę dezinformacji, co wynika choćby z wyrwania ich z historycznego kontekstu i umieszczenia we współczesnych realiach rosyjskich. Część druga jest poświęcona strategicznym celom polityki Rosji wobec neokozactwa oraz systemowi organizacyjnemu powołanemu do jej realizacji. Tekst zamyka wykaz przypisywanych mu funkcji, tj. wiązanych z tą społecznością długofalowych interesów Kremla.

The Paradoxes of Moldovan Sports. An insight into the nature of the Transnistrian conflict

The Paradoxes of Moldovan Sports. An insight into the nature of the Transnistrian conflict

Author(s): Adam Eberhardt / Language(s): English

Keywords: Moldova; Transnistrian conflict; political system; 1990s; political history; Moldovan sports; national sports teams;

The military conflict in the early 1990s split Moldova into two; thus Transnistria, which was set up on the eastern bank of the Dniester river as a se - parate state, remains unrecognised by the international community to date. This breakaway province has grown stronger, as today it possesses almost all the internal attributes of statehood, including an effective political system, an army and its own currency. The memory of the 1992 conflict, in which around one thousand people were killed, is the founding myth of Transnistria, and hostility towards Moldova has been used by the political elite in Tiraspol as a foundation of the state ideology and a key propaganda tool. The Transnistrian problem is usually seen as analogous to a few other separatist conflicts which broke out twenty years ago as a consequence of the fall of the Soviet empire and have not yet been resolved in a manner which would satisfy all the parties involved and also gain support from the major international actors. However, the Transnistrian conflict is clear - ly different in its nature from the conflicts in Abkhazia, South Ossetia or Nagorno-Karabakh. Relations between Moldova proper and this breakaway province cannot be described by simple definitions or seemingly obvious analogies.

The fragile ‘reset’. The balance and the prospects for changes in Russian-US relations

The fragile ‘reset’. The balance and the prospects for changes in Russian-US relations

Author(s): Marcin Kaczmarski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russian Federation; United States; Russian-US relations; transformation of international relations; Kremlin; foreign policy; security policy;

Since the beginning of 2009, Russian-US relations have been undergoing an important transformation, which has the shorthand expression of the ‘reset’. This paper is intended to present the essence of the changes which have taken place in relations between Moscow and Washington over the past two years, and to analyse the prospects for the further development of these changes. The United States is still the most important point of reference in the Kremlin’s foreign and security policy; thus the shape of Russia’s relations with the USA will affect its general behaviour on the international stage.

The multi-speed Baltic States. Reinforcing the defence capabilities of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia

The multi-speed Baltic States. Reinforcing the defence capabilities of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia

Author(s): Piotr Szymański / Language(s): English

As regards defence policy, the Baltic states are usually treated by experts as forming a single unit. The reasons for this include a similar threat perception, similar military capabilities, and finally similar military modernisation programmes. However, the differences in their demographic and economic potentials as well as strategic cultures have resulted in them adopting different models of their armed forces.

National Guard. Forces of Special Destination

Rosgwardia. Siły specjalnego Przeznaczenia

Author(s): Jolanta Darczewska / Language(s): Polish

Keywords: National Guard; armed forces in Russia; FSWGN; security sector in Russia;

The establishment of the Federal Service of the National Guard Forces of the Russian Federation (FSWGN) fits in the tradition of the Russian security services. One of ist important elements are periodic reorganization, name and structure changes and management staff to restart the bodies. In contrast to radical changes in the past - the creation of the FSWGN, i.e. the Rosguard (this abbreviation is also used in official documents), was an evolutionary move which had been announced for many years under the modernization of internal troops and improvement of their effectiveness. From the texts in federal legislation and presidential decrees regulating the activities of the new force, and above all the information campaign accompanying its creation, it can be assumed that the introduced changes are of technical nature. The statutory tasks of the Rosguard are not much different from those assigned to internal troops and police formations. // The purpose of this text is to try to answer the questions about the FSWGN a spart of Russia's military organization and operational machine, and what is its organizational and personnel profile - more police or military. It was made on the basis of an analysis of the legal grounds for functioning Rosguard, its official documents, reports and reports posted on the FSWGN website, as well as media reports about it.