№105. A Synergy for Black Sea Regional Cooperation:

Guidelines for an EU Initiative

Author(s): Fabrizio Tassinari / Language(s): English

This study advocates that the EU support a comprehensive, multi-stakeholder initiative to achieve synergy from regional cooperation in the wider Black Sea area. The background for this initiative is first provided through an overview of the challenges, recent developments and EU interests in this region. Different models of regionalism have been promoted by the EU in the European periphery, and these are schematised with a focus on their respective advantages and disadvantages. Finally guidelines for an EU initiative are set out under: 1) objectives and sector-specific actions, 2) its scope in terms of variable geographic geometries of desirable cooperation in the region and 3) a Framework of institutional and financial arrangements to support the process. An overarching mechanism is required to give political cohesion, ownership, visibility and strategic purpose to the process, and this could well be based on an annual, high-level meeting, drawing on the model of the Black Sea Forum Summit in Bucharest on 5 June 2006.

№109. 'Outsourcing’ de facto Statehood. Russia and the Secessionist Entities in Georgia and Moldova

Author(s): Nicu Popescu / Language(s): English

The international community has been increasingly concerned with the secessionist conflicts that have marked the dissolution of the Soviet Union. The conflicts in the Transnistrian region of Moldova, South Ossetia and Abkhazia in Georgia, and Nagorno-Karabakh in Azerbaijan are no longer ‘internal affairs’ of the successor states of the former Soviet Union. The EU and NATO enlargements have brought these organisations closer to the conflict areas and have increased their interest in promoting solutions to these conflicts. In the context of the international fight against terrorism, there are fears that the existence of failed states or uncontrolled areas can have repercussions far beyond their respective regions. The relative stabilisation of the Balkans will allow the EU and NATO to pay more attention to conflicts that are further away from their neighbourhood.

№112. What should the European Union do next in the Middle East?

Author(s): Michael Emerson,Natalie Tocci / Language(s): English

It is urgent that the EU should follow up on UN Resolution 1701 and the deployment of member states’ troops to Lebanon with a strategic diplomatic initiative aimed at the fundamental problem, namely the lack of an agreed resolution to the Israeli Palestinian conflict. The reasons for this are a mix of old and new; reasons which are rooted in the international, European and Middle Eastern domains.

№120. The Presevo Valley of Southern Serbia alongside Kosovo. The Case for Decentralisation and Minority Protection

Author(s): Beáta Huszka / Language(s): English

Presevo Valley gained international attention mostly due to the insurgency of local Albanians in 2000, which was also a key factor destabilising Macedonia in 2001. Situated in southern Serbia and bordering on Macedonia and Kosovo, Presevo Valley is home to Serbia’s Albanian minority. Although the Valley has been calm in the last few years and the resurgence of armed conflict is unlikely at the moment, the situation is still fragile and continues to pose a potential security threat for the wider region. As the solution to Kosovo’s status is approaching, the problems of Albanians in Presevo Valley deserve serious attention. There are two main sources of security threats: one is the potential influx of Serbian refugees, the other is Kosovo’s (hypothetical) partition. The latter could potentially lead to the outbreak of violence, as Albanians of the Valley recently declared their intention to be united with Kosovo if the Serbian villages in the North of Kosovo would join Serbia. This Policy Brief argues, however, that the Serbian government could reduce the chances of conflict by addressing some everyday problems faced by the Albanian minority, which could take the wind out of the sails of potential irredentists. Albanian grievances centre on issues such as their weak presence in the public sector, high unemployment, limited implementation of their language rights and the lack of economic development. Some of these problems could be effectively addressed through strengthening local autonomy, which could be part of the solution. It is argued here that continuation with the Covic plan, which combines decentralisation and demilitarisation, could bring about the desired stability for the region, which needs continued attention and assistance from international bodies, among them the European Union.

№127. The EU and Kazakhstan. Balancing Economic Cooperation and Aiding Democratic Reforms in the Central Asian region

Author(s): Bhavna Dave / Language(s): English

Kazakhstan’s continuing socioeconomic and political stability, a formal commitment to political reforms and an unambiguously pro-Western orientation make it the EU’s most reliable partner in the Central Asian region. Its rising oil exports – almost 80% of EU imports from Kazakhstan consist of fuel and geostrategic location make a close and continuing partnership with the EU inevitable. Recognising that Kazakhstan is favourably placed to be the foremost player in the region, this analysis advocates that the EU should 1) develop an internally differentiated strategy towards Central Asia with Kazakhstan as a strategic anchor in the region, and 2) prioritise the promotion of democratic reforms and transparency of political and economic processes which can turn Kazakhstan into a more effective and reliable partner of the EU and a positive engine for reform in the broader region.

№128. The European Union’s Strategic Role in Central Asia

Author(s): Neil Melvin / Language(s): English

For the first time since the collapse of communism, the EU is facing a strategic challenge in its external policies. The rise of Russia and China as international actors – with India close behind – and the growing confidence of some leading regional powers, such as Iran, are creating a serious threat to the EU’s ambition to apply external policies that reflect European values. Against this background, the employment of the democracy – promotion agenda developed during the 1990s is unlikely to be effective and may even serve to weaken the position of the EU in key regions. This situation demands an urgent and far-reaching rethink of the approach the Union takes to external relations. If the EU is to remain a serious global actor, it will have to find ways to reconcile the imperative of engaging in difficult regions beyond the immediate European neighbourhood while also remaining true to the values of the Union.

№129. Turkmenistan in transition. A window for EU engagement?

Author(s): Michael Denison / Language(s): English

The sudden death of President Saparmurat Niyazov on 21 December 2006 has opened a window for engagement between the European Union (EU) and Turkmenistan. There appears to be a realisation across the Turkmen political elite that Niyazov’s style of policy micro-management was unsustainable and undesirable, both in terms of its immediate outcomes, and for its broader impact on political and social cohesion. Accordingly, a more balanced and collegiate form of governance is likely to develop under the new regime, with power effectively centred on a ‘junta’ of influential security officials from different clans/regions. Although formal democratisation remains a distant prospect, a sequence of economic and social changes, initiated both from above and below is likely to occur. The principal objectives of these will be to reverse Niyazov’s most idiosyncratic and unambiguously damaging policies, and to commence a process of cautious re-engagement with the outside world. What is the aim of these changes, repairing the damage of the Niazov years or something more ambitious? These reforms have the potential to be simultaneously emancipating and destabilising. Using a fusion of traditional Turkmen and Soviet techniques, paid for by gas rents, Niyazov managed to create a regime that, for over two decades, rather effectively neutralised any actual or potential sources of opposition to his rule. Without that primitive overlay, the multiplication of political actors, combined with necessary reforms to increase the role of the private sector, is likely to test the state’s institutional strength, and open new internal commercial pressures for engagement in and beyond the region.

№133. What will it take to resolve the dispute in Western Sahara?

Author(s): Hakim Darbouche / Language(s): English

After four years of diplomatic stalemate, there appeared to be some movement around the ‘frozen’ conflict in Western Sahara early in 2007, with a ‘fresh’ Moroccan proposal presented to a UN Security Council meeting on April 11th. The outcome of this submission, and its Sahrawi counterpart, was a UNSC resolution calling on: the parties to enter into negotiations without preconditions in good faith, taking into consideration the developments of the last months, with a view to achieving a just, lasting and mutually acceptable political solution, which will provide for the self-determination of the people of the Western Sahara.

№134. Democratisation and Human Rights in Central Asia: Problems, Development Prospects and the Role of the International Community

Author(s): Eugheniy Zhovtis / Language(s): English

To understand the reasons for the relative failures of the transition to democracy, the formation of a law-based state and the establishment of respect for human rights in the independent states of Central Asia today, as well as the role of the international community, one has to assess, first of all, the dynamics of the political process in this region of the world. In large part, the origins of the current weakness of democratic processes are the result of developments during the final decades of Soviet power. By the early 1990s, there arose a situation in which the ruling authorities Communist Party of the Soviet Union (CPSU), ruling authorities, realising the necessity of reform but at the same time wishing to retain power, initiated a set of reforms that employed democratic phraseology but which aimed first of all at protecting the interests of the ruling group.

№135. What Went Wrong? The Impact of Western Policies towards Hamas and Hizbollah

Author(s): Natalie Tocci / Language(s): English

International policies and in particular EU and US policies towards Hamas and Hizbollah have had multiple and interlocking effects in the last two years. Most visibly, western policies have impacted upon the two movements themselves, on the domestic governance systems in Palestine and Lebanon, and on the relations between Hamas and Hizbollah and their respective domestic political rivals. In turn, they have also had an impact on the conflicts between Israel and Palestine/Lebanon, and on the mediating roles of the international community. The balance sheet is far from positive. Paradoxically, western policies have often hampered the quest for international peace, democracy and good governance, as well as inter- and intra-state reconciliation. This Policy Brief offers a comparative analysis of the impact of western policies on three principal domestic and international dimensions of the Middle Eastern conundrum: the transformation and popularity of Hamas and Hizbollah, Lebanese and Palestinian governance and intra-Lebanese and Palestinian reconciliation.

№139. Security Challenges in Central Asia. Implications for the EU’s Engagement Strategy

Author(s): Daniel Kimmage / Language(s): English

Central Asia presents the European Union with a uniquely problematic set of security challenges. Enumerated in their most basic form, without reference to context, the challenges are formidable enough: the threat of violent extremism, a well established conduit for smuggling illegal narcotics and potential instability rife with the possibility of conflict and humanitarian catastrophe. But these challenges are not stand-alone issues that can be treated individually; they are embedded in a regional context that creates additional difficulties for engagement. Namely, while Central Asian states may share a common understanding of ‘security challenges’, that understanding differs considerably from accepted definitions within the EU. More importantly, the Central Asian states themselves have evolved in various directions since gaining independence in 1991, and it is by no means clear that a ‘regional policy’ is the most effective means by which to engage them.

№148. The New EU Strategy towards Central Asia: A View from the Region

Author(s): Nargis Kassenova / Language(s): English

The German Presidency of the EU in the first half of 2007 inspired great hopes regarding the development of relations between the European Union and the states of Central Asia. In Brussels and other European capitals, it was expected that Germany, as an EU political and economic heavyweight and one of the key promoters of the Common Foreign and Security Policy, would be able to foster a coordinated Central Asian policy giving direction and coherence to European engagement in the region. It was widely hoped – within both the governments of Central Asia and the societies of the region – that Germany, which has traditionally been the most pro-active European country in the region, would elevate the relations between the EU and Central Asian states to a higher level.

№160. Time to think of a strategic bargain with Russia

Author(s): Michael Emerson / Language(s): English

The recent past has been a miserable time for political relations between Russia and both the EU and the US. While business has been booming on the back of Russia’s huge gains from the skyrocketing price of oil and gas, the foreign policy scene has been desolate. All parties are contributing to the present grumbling dissatisfactions: Russia’s bullying foreign policy towards its smaller neighbors, its trouble-making over Kosovo and its ugly ultra-nationalist rhetoric, the EU’s inability to shape common positions towards Russia on either political or energy questions, the greatly damaged credibility of the present leadership of the United States, Russia’s complaints that it was cheated by NATO in the 1990s, the row over missile defences etc.

№167. Post-mortem on Europe’s first war of the 21st century

Author(s): Michael Emerson / Language(s): English

The small war between Georgia and Russia from 8 to 22 August 2008 has shattered any remaining illusions over the frontiers of the normative map of Europe. All the primary parties have to be criticised: Russia for setting a trap for Saakashvili to fall into, the Georgian leadership for its astounding military and political blunder in falling into it, and the United States for having failed to restrain its protégé. The first consequence is that Georgia has paid the price of Saakashvili’s folly, with the definitive loss of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. The second consequence is triggered by Russia’s continued occupation of strategic points in Georgia-proper, which means not peacekeeping but threatened strangulation of the Georgian economy and its role in the transit of oil and gas from the Caspian to the West. It also means that business as usual has become impossible, as already announced between NATO and Russia, and with more important decisions pending in both the EU and US. The third consequence is that the EU should immediately step up its policies to integrate Ukraine, with real perspectives of membership subject to the standard criteria. The fourth unknown consequence is how far this deteriorating process between Russia and the West will go. Russia may pretend, with its petropower and wealth, to be immune from any actions by the West, but beyond the short-term it is vulnerable. Whatever these unknowns, already Russia has crossed a red line with its strategic occupation of Georgia-proper, rather than the option just to push Georgia out of South Ossetia. This latter option would have met with widespread understanding internationally. But with its chosen option Russia has placed itself in another category, which is a throwback to earlier times, and totally incompatible with the political and moral principles of modern Europe.

№168. Al Qaeda in the West as a Youth Movement: The Power of a Narrative

Author(s): Olivier Roy / Language(s): English

Why do we bother, in Europe, about ‘Islamic radicalisation’? The answer seems obvious. There are at least two good reasons: one is terrorism, with its security implications; the other is the issue of integrating second-generation migrants in Europe, apparently the most fertile ground for recruiting terrorists. For most observers, the link between terrorism and integration is a given fact. Al Qaeda-type terrorist activities carried out either in Europe, or by European residents and citizens abroad, are seen as the extreme form, and hence as a logical consequence, of Islam related radicalisation. There is a teleological approach consisting of looking in retrospect at every form of radicalisation and violence associated with the Muslim population in Europe as a harbinger of terrorism.

№175. Recalibrating EU Policy towards the Western Balkans

Author(s): Michael Emerson / Language(s): English

The time is not only ripe but pressing for the EU and the states of the Western Balkans to recalibrate and reinforce the current pre-accession strategy. Trade policy should be moved beyond existing free trade commitments for all the Western Balkans to enter the customs union of the EU and Turkey. Eurozone doctrine should be adapted to realities. Rather than regarding the use of the euro by Montenegro and Kosovo as an unfortunate turn of events, the costs and benefits of unilateral adoption of the euro by not-yet member states of the region should be more openly appraised, and the option to ‘euroise’ recognised as a possibility. It is good that the EU has moved at the declaratory level towards visa ‘liberalisation’, which means scrapping visas rather than just ‘facilitation’ measures. However the Commission has not yet published guidelines or timelines for this. The region should be put on track for access to the Structural Funds on terms and scales progressively approaching those from which new member states such as Bulgaria and Romania already benefit. The ratio of these aid receipts between the new member states and the Western Balkans is currently 4:1; the former are receiving more than they can handle efficiently, whereas the Western Balkans have huge unsatisfied needs. Overall the case is made for significant moves towards ‘functional membership’ of the whole of the region with the EU, which would be a highly useful advance, irrespective of how or when the EU overcomes its Lisbon Treaty hiatus.

日本留学は日本語学習者の「日本」イメージを左右 するのか―日本事情教育カリキュラムの関連性から の一考察―

Author(s): Tolga Özşen / Language(s): Japanese / Publication Year: 0

近年、日本のドラマのインターネット上の視聴サイトや小説及 び漫画のトルコ語版の数が著しく増えていると同時に、主専攻の学 科のみならず全国において 50 以上の機関に選択科目として日本語 講座が開講されている。このように、「日本」に対する関心が深化 し、多様化していく中で、トルコの日本語学習者が「日本」をイメ ージとしてどのように位置付けているのかについて考えることは、 今後のトルコの日本語教育の質を向上させる上でも重要な課題の一 つである。 日本人や日本語イメージに関する研究ついては、これまでにも トルコの大学の日本語学習者を対象にしたものがある。しかし、国 際交流の一環として、毎年十数人のトルコ人日本語学習者が日本へ 留学をしているという現状の中、学習者の「日本観」がどのように 変容しているのか、そしてその変容の背景にどのようなものがある のかについては「留学」との関係ではほとんど議論されていない。