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№108: Neither “NATO’s Foreign Legion” Nor the “Donbass International Brigades:” (Where Are All the) Foreign Fighters in Ukraine?

Author(s): Kacper Rękawek / Language(s): English

The conflict in Ukraine continues to attract global attention. Moreover, foreigners are also involved in actual combat in the eastern part of the country. Russians, be they soldiers or volunteers, are the dominant foreign group in the war zone. Others, mostly Europeans, constitute neither “NATO’s foreign legion” nor the “Donbass international brigades,” as their numbers likely do not exceed 300 on either side of the conflict. Interestingly enough, many of these European foreign fighters share common ideological roots, i.e., anti-Americanism, anti-liberalism, extreme nationalism, fascination with authoritarianism, rejection of European integration, but these do not, however, stop them from taking opposing sides in the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. They, as a group or as lone individuals, might constitute a threat to European security and must be closely monitored.

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№099: The Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt: No Time for Obituaries

Author(s): Kacper Rękawek / Language(s): English

The Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood (MB) is the oldest socio-political movement active in Egypt. Its members and structures are now undergoing one of the most severe crackdowns in its history, at the hands of an Egyptian government that constituted itself in the aftermath of a popular revolt followed by a coup against a short period of MB rule in 2013. The MB, however, although dispersed and fragmented, is still not defeated, and faces options related to its future political trajectory. This paper discusses these options and concludes that the MB is most likely to ready itself for a “long struggle” scenario that would amount to waiting out the period of repression and reconstituting itself on a bottom-up basis.

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№097: Deterring Russia after Ukraine: CEE Divided on the Future of NATO Policy

Author(s): Artur Kacprzyk / Language(s): English

In the context of the Ukraine crisis, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia and Romania have called for significant strengthening of NATO’s deterrence and defence policy and for permanent deployments of Allied troops in the region. This position is, however, not shared by the rest of the Central and Eastern European NATO members. Similar to Western European countries, Hungary, Czech Republic and Slovakia do not feel as threatened by Russia’s actions and do not support moves that could damage their political and economic relations with Moscow. Fundamental differences among the current positions of the regional Allies indicate a profound divide between Central and Eastern European NATO members.

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№080: New Nuclear Builds in Central and Eastern Europe: Safety Aspects

Author(s): Jodi Lieberman / Language(s): English

With nearly all of the countries in Central and Eastern Europe considering construction of new nuclear plants, either to add to existing units or for the first time, it can be instructive to take stock of where they started following 1989, where they are now, and what lies ahead. Most of the countries benefited from nuclear safety-related assistance in the past. Through their membership in the EU and IAEA they also have access to the tools and institutional procedures that can be useful in assessing their nuclear programmes from a nuclear safety point of view. Poland, starting from scratch with a new nuclear build, may benefit from extensive external experience.

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№074: Al Qaeda at 25: “No Point in Fighting Them Since They Themselves are Fighting Each Other?

Author(s): Kacper Rękawek,Dario Cristiani / Language(s): English

Just before another anniversary of the September 11 terrorist attacks, Al Qaeda (AQ) turned 25. Although after more than a decade of the war on terrorism the so called Al Qaeda Central is far from thriving operationally, it still advises and inspires jihadists around the world. Moreover, in the aftermath of the Arab Spring AQ Central affiliates and allies have re-constituted themselves and are growing in various parts of Northern Africa and the Middle East. Nonetheless, de-centralisation of the world’s counter-terrorism effort, with the focus not on AQ Central but on its “subordinates,” may in the longer term lead to a serious disruption of the totality of the organisation, already riddled with internal contradictions.

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№047: Poland Looks to Ride Rising Tide of Transatlantic Defence Market Mergers

Author(s): Wojciech Lorenz / Language(s): English

The aerospace and defence industries are on the brink of a major shake-up. The aircraft producers will ave to meet booming demand for civilian planes, while defence companies face slashed military budgets and different military priorities. Both sectors of the industry will need a serious restructuring to adapt to the changing market, with consolidations and take-overs constituting a major trend. Their consequences will be felt in Central and Eastern Europe, with Poland, as the biggest defence market in the region, at the forefront.

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№029: NATO Defence and Deterrence Posture: Central and Eastern European Perspectives

Author(s): Jacek Durkalec / Language(s): English

The paper offers a comprehensive overview of the positions of Central and Eastern European states vis-à-vis the NATO Defence and Deterrence Posture Review (DDPR). The outcome of the DDPR process, which has been on the Alliance’s agenda since the summit in Lisbon in 2010, will come to the front and centre of the debate in the second half of May, as leaders of NATO member states convene for the summit in Chicago. The author discusses the Central and Eastern Europeans’ approach to the question of the overall mix of NATO defence and deterrence capabilities—nuclear forces, conventional forces, and missile defence. In particular, he argues that the debate about certain aspects of the NATO defence and deterrence posture should not cease with the endorsement of the DDPR report in Chicago, but should continue in order to address the outstanding issue of non-strategic nuclear weapons based in Europe.

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№016: Palestinian UN Vote and Triple-faced EU Policies

Author(s): Patrycja Sasnal,Daniel Levy / Language(s): English

Debata wokół uznania państwa palestyńskiego przez ONZ po raz kolejny ukazała głębokie podziały wewnątrz Unii Europejskiej, jej słabość i marginalne znaczenie problemu uznania Palestyny w obliczu kryzysu strefy euro. W niniejszym studium Patrycja Sasnal bada możliwości, jakie Palestyńczycy mają do dyspozycji w ONZ, i argumentuje, że UE nadal może zachować twarz, jeśli gremialnie wstrzyma się od głosu lub zagłosuje „za” w zależności od sformułowania treści rezolucji. Następnie Daniel Levy uzasadnia, dlaczego głosowanie na „tak” może przyczynić się do postępów w procesie pokojowym. Najpilniejszym celem pozostaje niedopuszczenie do ponownego wybuchu przemocy pomiędzy zwaśnionymi stronami na gwałtownie zmieniającym się Bliskim Wschodzie.

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№011: Willing and (un)able. New Defence Policy Guidelines and Reorientation of the Bundeswehr

Author(s): Ryszarda Formuszewicz,Marcin Terlikowski / Language(s): English

Przed kilkoma tygodniami władze RFN przedstawiły nowe propozycje zmian w niemieckiej polityce bezpieczeństwa i obronnej. Poprzednie próby reform w tej dziedzinie zakończyły się fiaskiem z uwagi na brak precyzji w definiowaniu stojących przed Niemcami celów, nieskuteczną politykę informacyjną, ograniczenia finansowe, a także wskutek niespodziewanych zmian w kierownictwie niemieckiego ministerstwa obrony. Autorzy analizy dowodzą jednak, że Niemcy nie mogły pozwolić sobie na dalsze utrzymywanie dysonansu między własnymi ambicjami na arenie międzynarodowej, zawiedzionymi oczekiwaniami sojuszników i partnerów, a także postawami dominującymi w niemieckim społeczeństwie. Kolejna próba przeformułowania priorytetów polityki bezpieczeństwa RFN była nieodzowna w obliczu napięć wokół niemieckiego zaangażowania w Afganistanie, ryzyka marginalizacji w sferze europejskiej współpracy obronnej, oraz kontrowersji spowodowanych decyzją o nieudzieleniu poparcia interwencji w Libii. To jak zakończy się reforma będzie uzależnione od reakcji niemieckiego społeczeństwa oraz zdolności do zbilansowania nakładów finansowych na nią.

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№004: What future for out-of-area operations after Afghanistan?

Author(s): Gareth Chappell / Language(s): English

Analizuje on zagadnienie gotowości Sojuszu Północnoatlantyckiego do podejmowania tak zwanych operacji "out-of-area". Nowa Koncepcja Strategiczna NATO przewiduje, że Sojusz będzie kontynuował aktywność poza obszarem traktatowym określonym w Traktacie Waszyngtońskim. Gareth Chappell, analityk PISM, dowodzi jednak, że operacja sojusznicza w Afganistanie może spowodować nasilenie się odwrotnego trendu. W państwach członkowskich NATO coraz silniej odczuwalne jest zmęczenie tym konfliktem, zaś kryzys gospodarczy dodatkowo utrudni sojusznikom sprostanie wymaganiom intensywnej, zamorskiej obecności wojskowej. Niektóre państwa członkowskie, w szczególności USA, mogą być w rosnącym stopniu skłonne odwoływać się do innych instrumentów w swojej polityce bezpieczeństwa - mniej formalnych, ale za to bardziej skutecznych. W rezultacie NATO będzie intensyfikować zaangażowanie na innych polach, takich jak promowanie współpracy w dziedzinie bezpieczeństwa międzynarodowego, obrona przeciwrakietowa czy zagrożenia nowego typu, dążąc w ten sposób do potwierdzenia swojej żywotności.

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High on reassurance, low on deterrence – Germany’s stance on strengthening NATO’s eastern flank

Author(s): Justyna Gotkowska / Language(s): English

Germany’s stance on strengthening NATO’s eastern flank has evolved over the last two years. Berlin agreed to make collective defence a priority for NATO once again and consented to a greater allied presence in Poland and the Baltic states. Germany continues however to express reservations and is attempting to limit the scope of NATO’s engagement. The overall change in Germany’s policy was due to several reasons. In the last two years Germany has ceased to perceive Russia as a partner and begun instead to view it as a challenge to the security of Europe. Germany has also been pressed hard by its allies – the USA, Poland and the Baltic states - to change its position within NATO and to increase its military engagement on the eastern flank. Berlin has thus gradually expanded its military presence in the region – also in part so it may maintain its credibility within the alliance. However, Germany still eyes its military involvement on the eastern flank more along the lines of reassuring its allies than of deterring Russia.

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Cautious and rotational – US military engagement on NATO’s eastern flank

Author(s): Piotr Woyke / Language(s): English

The Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014 put a stop to the gradual scaling down of US military engagement in Europe, a policy that the United States had pursued since the end of the Cold War. The Russian-Ukrainian conflict became a watershed for the US perceptions of European security as Washington started to see the threat of a conflict between Russia and a NATO member as more probable. The United States decided that – despite the mounting challenges in the Pacific region and its involvement in conflicts in the Middle East – it had to invest more in European security. The US has stepped up the intensity of joint drills with the allies and the activities of its forces in Europe. However, its support for the allies has been subject to various limitations and should be treated as a political signal to Moscow, rather than an element in a broader strategy. The future of the policy of strengthening the eastern flank will depend on the outcome of the US presidential elections in November and on developments in the bilateral relations between Washington and Moscow.

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The current state, problems and future of Germany’s air and missile defence

Author(s): Justyna Gotkowska / Language(s): English

From German point of view, air and missile defence systems are of little relevance for the protection of Germany’s territory. However, they are seen as important for conducting ‘out of area’ operations, providing military assistance to allies, and for Germany’s political and military-technical position within NATO.The Bundeswehr has been modernising its air and missile defence systems for several years. The modernisation of very short-range and short-range systems is slightly behind schedule. Plans to modernise the medium-range air and missile defence have been encountering problems since the United States decided to refrain from buying the jointly developed MEADS system. Therefore Germany is currently considering using the results of the MEADS program in the development of its own medium-range air and missile defence system, possibly in co-operation with France and Italy. Such a system would ensure protection against short-range ballistic missiles (up to 1000 km) and might become part of NATO’s ballistic missile defence, replacing the Patriot batteries which Germany is currently operating. Furthermore, Germany could expand its involvement in NATO’s ballistic missile defence in the future by buying or developing system to intercept medium- and intermediate-range ballistic missiles (up to 3000 km and 5500 km). The final decision on this matter has not yet been taken, and will be left for the successive governments of Germany to resolve. It will depend on a number of political, military and financial factors.

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Towards a professional army. Changes to the structure of the officer cadre and the manning system of the Russian Armed Forces

Author(s): Andrzej Wilk / Language(s): English

The structure of the Russian army's personnel has undergone a major transformation in recent years. The Armed Forces are no longer a downsized continuation of the Soviet-era mass army, but are gradually becoming a de facto professional army in which conscription, now employed on a diminishing scale, will primarily constitute a first step towards a continued professional military career. The cornerstone for the process of professionalisation has been laid by a personnel reform which cut the number of officer posts by nearly half and considerably restricted the recruitment of new officers, thus restoring traditional proportions to the structure of the officer corps. The plans to ultimately implement a manning system based predominantly on contract service are a natural consequence of these changes. The ongoing professionalisation of the Russian Armed Forces should be treated as a conscious effort which is mainly necessitated by global trends: despite the demographic changes taking place, Russia could still maintain an army with a declared strength of one million soldiers, most of them conscripts.

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The Warsaw Workshop Prospects for Information Sharing and Confidence Building on Non-Strategic Nuclear Weapons in Europe

Author(s): Paul Schulte / Language(s): English

The Polish Institute of International Affairs is pleased to present the final report from “The Warsaw Workshop: Prospects for Information Sharing and Confidence Building on Non-Strategic Nuclear Weapons in Europe”, which was held on 7 and 8 February 2013. Non-strategic nuclear weapons based in Europe are not presently covered by existing arms control regimes or confidence building measures. The report, which summarises the proceedings of the Workshop, includes a set of practical options that can become a basis for future work on such measures in a variety of bilateral and multilateral forums, including the NATO–Russia Council. The report has been prepared by the representatives of three think tanks which co-organized the Warsaw Workshop: Paul Schulte (Nuclear Policy Program of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace), Paal Sigurd Hilde, Katarzyna Zysk (Norwegian Institute for Defence Studies), Łukasz Kulesa and Jacek Durkalec from PISM.

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Launch of the European Border and Coast Guard Agency

Author(s): Jolanta Szymańska / Language(s): English

On 6 October 2016, at the Bulgarian-Turkish border, the European Border and Coast Guard Agency was officially launched. Along with the new name, Frontex has been reinforced but its position in relation to the Member States has not fundamentally changed. The reformed agency will not replace national border authorities but will still support them in crisis situations. The headquarters will remain in Warsaw if an agreement between the agency and the Polish government is concluded no later than 7 April.

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The Threat of Further ISIS Terrorism in Europe

Author(s): Kacper Rękawek / Language(s): English

ISIS is threatening new terrorist attacks in Europe. These could be carried out by terrorists still on the run and previously involved in the preparation of the last Paris and Brussels attacks. Belgium and France are the most threatened, however, ISIS is also calling on its European followers to stage individual attacks. It mostly counts on the 1,500 or more of its fighters who have returned to Europe from Syria. Any individual actions would not likely match the ferocity of the attacks staged directly by ISIS in Europe between 2015 and 2016; nonetheless, the lone and spontaneous character of such acts could pose a bigger challenge to security services than well-planned attacks.

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Rosja na poligonie. Bezprecedensowa aktywność szkoleniowa Sił Zbrojnych Federacji Rosyjskiej

Author(s): Andrzej Wilk / Language(s): Polish

In 2020, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation much earlier than in previous years activated their training activities. The COVID-19 epidemic developing in Russia did not slow down military activity, but only expanded the training issues to include issues related to counteracting the spread of SARS-CoV-2, and contributed to an increase in the scale and number of projects aimed at securing operations of the armed forces under conditions of the use of mass weapons destruction. While in the first weeks of this year the increased activity could be seen in opposition to the Defender Europe 2020 exercises, the largest since the end of the Cold War (under the US leadership and with the participation of other NATO countries) planned in the spring, while during the coronavirus pandemic they can be treated as a demonstration of Russia's resilience, especially its component military, for threats related to COVID-19, as well as readiness for regular armed clashes regardless of the epidemiological situation. The observed exercises do not introduce a new quality in this respect, but only provide further evidence that the Russian army is preparing, in the first place, for offensive operations.

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NATO i Unia Europejska wobec zagrożeń hybrydowych

Author(s): Piotr Szymański / Language(s): Polish

In recent years, the importance of NATO and the European Union in countering hybrid threats from states and non-state actors has grown. This category covers a wide spectrum of military and non-military operations - from the use of special forces and subversive groups to disinformation and cyber attacks. NATO and the EU are committed to coordinating international cooperation in combating hybrid threats, as well as protecting their own structures against them. In this way, both organizations support activities at the national level, as it is individual countries that bear the main responsibility for responding to such challenges. However, the effectiveness of NATO and the EU is limited by insufficient financial resources to counter hybrid threats. It is also adversely affected by the lack of will of the Member States to increase the exchange of sensitive information, such as the protection of critical infrastructure or cybersecurity. The example of the intensification of disinformation campaigns against the West in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic proves that NATO and the EU should pay even more attention to the problem of hybrid threats

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Reforma Sił Zbrojnych FR pod nowym kierownictwem. Kontrrewolucji nie będzie

Author(s): Andrzej Wilk / Language(s): Polish

The change in the position of the Russian Defense Minister in November 2012, carried out amidst a corruption scandal, aroused expectations among some of the Russian elite that a reform as initiated during Anatoly Serdyukov's term of office will take place, which would eliminate the remnants of the Soviet army and make the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation similar to the modern armies of Western countries,. Contrary to expectations, the new head of the ministry, Sergei Shoigu, did not carry out a personnel purge and maintained civilian control over the ministry's finances. The actions of the new management and the announced corrections, although they concern various areas - mainly the reform of military education and military health service - refer to issues related to the current course of privatization of the property of the Ministry of Defence. They are in the nature of cleaning up after the corruption scandals that directly contributed to Serdyukov's dismissal. This is despite numerous voices calling on Shoigu to suspend or even reverse the changes, especially those concerning the command structure and manning system. However, the actions undertaken by the newly appointed Chief of the General Staff, General Valery Gerasimov, and the First Deputy Minister, General Arkady Bachin, allow us to assume that the reform of the Russian army in the strictly military sphere will continue in accordance with its current assumptions. The pace of reforming the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation will be determined solely by the organizational and financial capabilities of the Russian state, above all by solving the problems between the defense ministry and the armaments industry, directly affecting the implementation of a large-scale, costly technical modernization.

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