CSD Policy Brief No. 24: Introducing Organised Crime Threat Assessment

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

MAIN POINTS * Introducing of EU-wide best practices of producing on a periodic basis of national reports assessing the threats from organised crime, which will facilitate the daily and long term activities of Bulgarian law-enforcement institutions. * Establishing of a permanent mechanism of institutional interaction, which will give full use of the instruments of publicprivate partnership, aiming at widening transparency in law-enforcement activities. * The application of modern methods for operative information gathering and analysis of the activities and finances of the organised criminal groups, in addition to the illegal markets under their controls. * Taking measures to facilitate the exchange of data between Bulgarian lawenforcement entities and between them and their EU counterparts in accordance with the Stockholm Program of the European Council.

CSD Policy Brief No. 41: Crime Trends 2012 – 2013

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

KEY POINTS ››› Crime rates increased in 2012 compared to 2011 - 15.4 per cent of the population compared to 10.3 per cent, respectively, were victims of crime. The number of victims and the overall number of crimes increased both. ››› Growth of unregistered crimes: for a third consecutive year the share of victims who do not report crimes to the police increased. ››› Growth in thefts: despite the continuing decline in serious crimes such as murder and vehicle theft, there is an increase in crimes against property of the citizens. ››› Victims of crime in South Central and South Eastern regions of the country are least likely to report crimes to the police. These areas are also characterized by high levels of crime victimisation.

Albania and NATO. Why we do need NATO?

Author(s): Maklen Misha / Language(s): English

Few issues interest the Albanians more than their country’s Euro-Atlantic integration. However, while accession to the EU must for the moment, remains a distant dream, in recent months expectations have been raised that Albania might receive an invitation to join NATO in the Summit of Bucharest due in April 2008. Several ministers have made declarations to that effect and the media has been quite active in discussing the possibility, too. If this indeed proves to be the case, it would be hard to explain the sense of accomplishment Albanians would feel at the realization of their dream. // Because of the proximity of the Summit of Bucharest and the expectations that prevail in Albania concerning its possible invitation to join NATO in July 2007, AIIS decided to conduct a survey with four elite groups of the Albanian society. These groups are involved in the integration process more actively and directly than the ordinary Albanians are. The rationale behind the choice of target groups was based on the belief that these groups because of their position in society and their ability to influence decision-making. Therefore, it is interesting to ascertain the level of expertise that they possess on the NATO integration process. Because these groups, by their very nature, play a primary role in shaping the attitudes and beliefs of the public as a whole, by shaping attitudes one can also expect to gain a sense of what the public as a whole thinks of these issues.

The Potential for Polish-Lithuanian Cooperation in Security

Author(s): Kinga Raś / Language(s): English

Poland and Lithuania, regardless of tensions related to the situation of the Polish minority, are intensifying security sector cooperation. The main reason is the Ukraine-Russia conflict, which changed the geopolitical conditions in the region. A notable example of such cooperation is the creation of the Poland-Lithuania-Ukraine brigade, which will reach full operational capability in 2017. Poland and Lithuania also have common interests concerning the upcoming NATO summit in Warsaw, especially with regard to strengthening the Alliance's presence on the eastern flank. However, this will require the involvement of both countries in other dimensions of NATO activity.

The European Border and Coast Guard: Potentials and Risks

Author(s): Elżbieta Kaca / Language(s): English

The establishment of an EU border service is a step towards community control of border management in the Schengen zone. Whilst such an arrangement seems beneficial in terms of increasing the efficiency of border control, it is controversial because it interferes with the rights of the Member States.

Koliko nas košta Javna Sigurnost? – Analiza budžetskih stavki za ministarstva unutrašnjih poslova i policijske agencije u BiH za 2011. i 2015. godinu –

Author(s): Denis Hadžović,Benjamin Plevljak / Language(s): Bosnian

The Regimental System and the Armed Forces of Bosnia and Herzegovina

Author(s): Elliot Short / Language(s): English

The regimental system is a method of military organisation developed by the British Army over the last 300 years, variations of which can be identified in the present-day armed forces of numerous Commonwealth states including Australia, Canada, India, Pakistan, and the United Kingdom (UK). Despite its widespread application and well documented history, however, any definition of the Regimental System must remain fluid. Socio-economic developments, coupled with advances in technology and military organisation, means that the parameters of what a regiment is – in terms of structure, composition, identity, and purpose – are constantly changing. David French, in his detailed study of military identities in the British Army, postulates that ‘the language of the “regiment” is so shot through with anomalies that to talk of a “regimental system” is itself almost a misnomer, for there was much about it that was anything but systematic.’1Perhaps the only consistent observation of the Regimental System focuses on its abstract, emotional appeal. When joining a regiment, a soldier enters a community which offers them an inspirational heritage, a legacy to defend, and the support of a “family” in a manner considerably more personal than the faceless bureaucracy of an army organised along the lines of the continental system. Such a dynamic, it is argued, fosters esprit de corps and boosts the morale of troops, ultimately leading to increased combat effectiveness and cohesion. Over 130 years after Edward Cardwell reformed the British Army and established the Regimental System, the model was applied to the newly integrated Armed Forces of Bosnia and Herzegovina (Bosna i Herzegovina, BiH; AFBIH), a military with no significant historical links to the British Army or the wider Anglosphere. This paper will offer an overview of the origins and development of the regimental system in a number of countries, explain how such a system came to be applied in BiH, and compare the application of the system in the AFBiH with other militaries which utilise it. The strengths and weaknesses of the regimental system in the AFBiH will then be considered, and the report will conclude with an analysis of how the regimental system could be reformed in order to strengthen the AFBiH.

U.S. Releases Its 2022 “Missile Defense Review”

Author(s): Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski / Language(s): English

The U.S. “Missile Defense Review” (MDR) indicates that its priorities are defence of its own territory against direct attacks from North Korea and Iran, and protection of overseas bases and allies, mainly from China and Russia. The Biden administration confirms the plan for finishing the European element of the “missile shield”, but also suggests the need for increased military efforts by allies from NATO. The intense use of missiles and drones by Russia against Ukraine and increased risks of intentional or accidental strike on the territory of NATO confirms the necessity of strengthened integrated air and missile defence of the Eastern Flank of the Alliance.

Crisis in Czech-Russian Relations Seven Years after the Explosions in Vrbětice

Author(s): Łukasz Ogrodnik / Language(s): English

The Czech government on 17 April announced the expulsion of 18 Russian diplomats identified as spies. This is the outcome of an investigation by Czech intelligence that revealed Russia was involved in two explosions at munitions depots in Vrbětice in southern Czech Republic in 2014.

The Israel- Palestine Conflict - IV

Author(s): J Scott Younger / Language(s): English

The Israel – Palestine conflict has now been a hot topic in the news ever since the brutal attack by Hamas on the kibbutz and surrounds, located just outside the south of the Gaza strip on 7th October last year. The whole strip was penned in by a strong safety fence which had been put up by Israel a few years earlier, such that the Palestinians were reminded that they were in a kind of prison dependent on power and water, and so that PM Benjamin Netanyahu could keep them apart-- apartheid. Hamas, while still controlling the strip, although much in the minority, wanted to show the vulnerability of the fence. They did but went much too far.

Universal, selective, and lottery-based: conscription in the Nordic and Baltic states

Author(s): Piotr Szymański / Language(s): English

The Nordic and Baltic region is currently experiencing a significant expansion of conscription and reserve forces. In addition to accelerated military modernisation and the reinforcement of NATO’s north-eastern flank, enhancing mobilisation capacity has emerged as a key element in bolstering the defence capabilities of Nordic and Baltic states in response to an aggressive Russia.

Twilight of Jupiter: The Legacy of Macron's Foreign and Security Policy

Author(s): Łukasz Maślanka / Language(s): English

Over the course of his seven-year presidency, Emmanuel Macron has had complete freedom in shaping France's foreign and security policy. This autonomy is evident in France’s fluctuating stance towards Russia, from initial hopes of building a shared European security architecture to the recent reports of dispatching French military instructors to support embattled Ukraine. The pace of decision-making was undoubtedly an advantage for France compared to many allies, but it did not always enhance Paris's credibility.

Washington Summit – NATO's anniversary in the shadow of the war

Author(s): Robert Pszczel,Piotr Szymański / Language(s): English

Three themes were dominant at the NATO Summit in Washington (9–11 July): the reinforcement of allied deterrence and defence, support for Ukraine, and cooperation with the partners in the Indo-Pacific. NATO continues to adapt its command structure and the process of force generation for new regional defence plans. The most significant decisions concerned aid for Ukraine. Although Kyiv is yet to receive an invitation to join NATO, its integration path was described as "irreversible".The decisions made at the summit regarding NATO's new role in supporting Ukraine are to serve as a "bridge" to eventual membership. These include NATO taking on tasks of coordinating military aid and the training of Ukrainian forces, along with a financial commitment of at least €40 billion annually for long-term support. Compared to previous documents, the allies have toughened their language on China in the Summit Declaration, identifying it as a decisive enabler of Russia’s war against Ukraine.

How to win the war and join NATO? The key role of Ukraine’s partnership with the Alliance

Author(s): Robert Pszczel / Language(s): English

Ukraine’s defensive war is a struggle for high stakes: the existence of the Ukrainian state and the security of the entire Western world. The upcoming NATO summit in Washington, like the previous one in Vilnius, will not bring any breakthroughs regarding how quickly Ukraine joins the Alliance, or whether Kyiv receives a formal invitation. However, NATO is ready to increase its support for Ukraine significantly. The assistance package which has been prepared may prove to be an added value binding Ukraine more closely with the Alliance. This will create an opportunity for two goals to be achieved simultaneously: strategically strengthening Ukraine's military potential in its war against Russia, and preparing it for the requirements of future membership.

NATO’s nuclear deterrence: is it time for change?

Author(s): Jakub Graca,Justyna Gotkowska / Language(s): English

NATO is in the process of adjusting its nuclear deterrence in response to the modernisation of Russia’s nuclear capabilities, the deployment of Russian tactical nuclear weapons near NATO’s borders, and the Kremlin’s increasingly aggressive rhetoric. However, the changes to NATO’s nuclear strategy, capabilities (aside from the ongoing modernisation of the US, UK, and French strategic forces), and strategic communication have so far been limited.Currently, there is no agreement on whether to further strengthen NATO’s tactical nuclear potential in Europe by expanding the nuclear sharing programme to include additional allies or by deploying nuclear-capable land-based missile systems in Europe. Nevertheless, it will be necessary to adapt NATO’s tactical nuclear potential further in the future as the US’s nuclear capabilities will be most likely adjusted to the growing challenges posed not only by Russia but also China. This may spur a discussion on the European allies increasing their participation in nuclear sharing program and on strengthening the roles of France and the UK in nuclear deterrence in Europe.

Pax Ukrainica. Ukraine’s hopes and expectations ahead of the summit in Switzerland

Author(s): Krzysztof Nieczypor / Language(s): English

Much of Ukrainian diplomacy’s activity has been focused on efforts to persuade the world that it should support an end to the war with Russia on Ukraine’s terms. Since November 2022, Ukraine has primarily pursued this goal by promoting Volodymyr Zelensky’s Peace Formula, which consists of 10 points representing Ukrainian demands directly related to the ongoing conflict: the complete withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukrainian territory, Russia’s recognition of the inviolability of Ukraine’s borders, punishing those guilty of war crimes, and launching international action in the face of the threats with possible global consequences that exist in Ukraine. These include ensuring the safety of nuclear energy in the light of Russia’s occupation of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, and guaranteeing Ukrainian food exports via the Black Sea.

The Israeli offensive in Rafah against the backdrop of a humanitarian disaster

Author(s): Marek Matusiak / Language(s): English

In the second week of May, Israel launched an invasion of the southern part of the Gaza Strip (the Rafah region) and resumed massive ground & air attacks in the north (including on the city of Jabalia). Since then, its army (the Israeli Defence Forces, IDF) has taken control of the border crossing with Egypt (which had hitherto been used as the main point for importing humanitarian aid) and began entering the city of Rafah itself. As a result, Israel now fully controls land access to Gaza, which it has consistently blocked since the start of the offensive.[1]

On the warpath: the development and modernisation of the Baltic states’ armed forces

Author(s): Bartosz Chmielewski,Jacek Tarociński / Language(s): English

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 reinforced the sense of threat from Russia in the Baltic states, and spurred them to speed up the implementation of their national defence policies. Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia decided to boost their military spending and adapt their security objectives to the changing situation. The experience of the war in Ukraine and Russia’s crimes against the Ukrainian civilian population prompted the three countries to take steps aimed at ensuring that they could defend their entire national territories from day one of a possible attack. The new objectives of their security and defence policies are based on three pillars: achieving defence spending of at least 3% of GDP, securing the greater presence of allied forces, and fast-tracking technical modernisation combined with the development of their own armed forces and the expansion of their military infrastructure.

Facing another Zeitenwende. How Germany could react to a possible victory for Trump

Author(s): Lidia Gibadło / Language(s): English

The news that Donald Trump is almost certain to be the Republican Party’s presumptive presidential nominee has sparked a debate in Germany about the country’s future cooperation with the US. At present, concern about sustaining American military engagement in Europe, including the continuation of aid to Ukraine, is the predominant topic in this debate. However, there are more challenges to come: Germany is also worried that the US will start criticising it again for its trade surpluses and underinvestment in the Bundeswehr.

On the threshold of a third year of war. Ukraine’s mobilisation crisis

Author(s): Jakub Ber / Language(s): English

At the end of 2023 the Ukrainian army was facing a serious crisis involving manpower shortage, aside from the even more serious problem posed by the shortfall of weapons and ammunition. This is particularly evident as regards the infantry, which has formed the backbone of the forces fighting against Russia and has suffered the most severe losses. The majority of volunteers enlisted in the first months of the war, while opportunities to recruit thousands of new ones have now been exhausted. Although a mobilisation process has been underway since spring 2022, due to the present legal and organisational constraints it is selective in nature, and has proved unable to meet the needs of the armed forces in terms of unit replenishment and rotation. These problems are further aggravated by the soldiers’ high average age (around 40); this translates into poor physical condition & health, and they lack the stamina to withstand the hardships of gruelling trench warfare. In some aspects, the causes of the crisis involve the army itself, and result from many years of neglect and irregularities affecting the military draft centres. However, the main factor hindering the improvement of the situation has been political.