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Context Analysis of the Security Sector Reform in Macedonia 1991 – 2008

Author(s): Cvete Koneska,Biljana Kotevska / Language(s): English

This paper looks at the general political and security sector context in the last two decades since Macedonian independence, and traces the major trends and events that shaped the political developments and progress with security sector reforms in post-communist Macedonia. For the purpose of this paper, the analysis of the post-communist transition period is divided in three parts, corresponding to the three periods on which we divided the context since 1991, for the sake of greater clarity and analytical coherence. For each of these three periods, we conducted an analysis of major political developments as well as institutional change. Based on this analysis, each period is qualified as characterised by a specific nature, whether post-authoritarian, conflict, postconflict, or integrationist. In the Annex attached to this paper, a short overview of the key political actors and their role in the security sector reforms and the political transition in Macedonia is offered. The first period analyzed is the period from the declaration of independence from Yugoslavia, in 1991 until the ethnic conflict in 2001. These years mark the first decade of independent statehood and democratic politics in Macedonia. The second period stretches from the ethnic conflict in 2001 until the NATO Summit in Bucharest in early 2008. The 2001 conflict had a profound impact on the political and security context in Macedonia. It produced inter-ethnic violence and culminated in a far-reaching reform of the constitutional and institutional set-up of Macedonian democracy.

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The twilight of the Russian-Indian strategic partnership

Author(s): Witold Rodkiewicz / Language(s): English

Less than a decade ago, both Russian and Indian analysts would have described the relations between Moscow and New Delhi as problem-free from a political perspective. No other power was as convenient a partner for Russia as India. The first cracks in the relationship between the two countries began to emerge in the mid-2010s as a result of China’s growing power (India is in conflict with China) and its increasingly assertive foreign policy. Other factors included the development of Russian-Chinese cooperation and the ongoing rapprochement between India and the US. At first glance, it may seem that the full-scale war launched by the Russian Federation against Ukraine has served to further strengthen the relationship between Moscow and New Delhi. However, contrary to official rhetoric, the foundations of the Russian-Indian ‘specially privileged strategic partnership’ have been eroding, due to several factors, and this erosion is likely to continue.

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Integracija rodne perspektive u zaštitu i spašavanje i smanjenje rizika od katastrofa. Analiza i Check-lista za uvođenje principa rodne ravnopravnosti u djelokrug rada institucija zaštite i spašavanja u Bosni i Hercegovini

Author(s): Medina Mujić,Vedrana Frašto,Vildana Džekman / Language(s): Bosnian

Analizu Integracija rodne perspektive u zaštiti i spašavanju i smanjenju rizika od katastrofa je provela Fondacije Cure u saradnji, upute i usmjeranja članova IPA DRAM BiH radne grupe i Agencije za ravnopravnost spolova BiH Ministrastva za ljudska prava i izbjeglice BiH, u okviru Regionalnog IPA DRAM programa pod nazivom “Procjenjivanje rizika i mapiranje u Zemljama Zapadnog Balkana i Turskoj“ [Instrument for Pre-Accession Assistance (IPA) Disaster Risk Assessment and Mapping in the Western Balkans and Turkey (DRAM)]. Zemlje korisnice ovog programa su Albanija, Bosna i Hercegovina, Sjeverna Makedonija, Crna Gora, Srbija, Kosovo i Turska.Svrha Regionalnog IPA DRAM programa, je unapređenje koherentnih nacionalnih sistema za prikupljanje podataka o štetama i gubicima u nesrećama i katastrofama, procjeni rizika i mapiranju, kao i usklađivanje i integracija u Mehanizam civilne zaštite Europske unije. Jedno od „cross-cutting“ pitanja IPA DRAM programa je integracija rodne perpesktive u zaštitu i spašavanje i smanjenje rizika od nesreća i katastrofa. S time u vezi je 5. i 6. marta 2019. godine u Švedskoj održana IPA DRAM regionalna radionica na ovu temu, a čija namjera je bila uspostaviti kontakt između institucija zaštite i spašavanja i institucija nadležnih za rodnu ravnopravnost u cilju utvrđivanja potrebe uvođenja principa rodne ravnopravnosti u djelokrug rada institucija zaštite i spašavanja. Tokom radionice došlo se do zaključka da je neophodno provesti edukacijske programe, izraditi vodiče i uputstva i osigurati bolju koordinaciju institucija nadležnih za zaštitu i spašavanje i rodnu ravnopravnost. Iz radionice je proizašao prijedlog da svaka od zemalja provede aktivnost kojom će inicirati ili unaprijediti integraciju rodne perspektive u zaštitu i spašavanje i smanjenje rizika od nesreća i katastrofa.

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Gender Mainstreaming in Protection and Rescue and Disaster Risk Reduction. Analysis and Checklist for Gender Mainstreaming in the work of Protection and Rescue Institutions in Bosnia and Herzegovina

Author(s): Medina Mujić,Vedrana Frašto,Vildana Džekman / Language(s): English

Analysis of Gender Mainstreaming in Protection and Rescue and Disaster Risk Reduction has been conducted by the Cure Foundation in cooperation, guidance and guidance of members of the IPA DRAM BiH Working Group and the BiH Gender Equality Agency of the BiH Ministry of Human Rights and Refugees, under the Instrument for Pre-Accession Assistance (IPA) Disaster Risk Assessment and Mapping in the Western Balkans and Turkey (DRAM) Regional Programme (IPA DRAM). Beneficiary countries of this programme are Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Northern Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia, Kosovo and Turkey. The purpose of the Regional IPA DRAM Programme is to improve coherent national systems for data collection on disaster-related damages and loses, risk assessment and mapping, as well as compliance and integration into the EU Civil Protection Mechanism. One of the cross-cutting issues of the IPA DRAM Programme is gender mainstreaming in protection and rescue and reducing the risk of accidents and disasters. In this regard, an IPA DRAM regional workshop on this very topic was held in Sweden on 5 and 6 March 2019. Its aim was to build contact between protection and rescue institutions and institutions responsible for gender equality in order to identify the need to have gender mainstreaming introduced in the work of the protection and rescue institutions. One of the conclusions from the workshop is the need to carry out educational programmes, develop guides and instructions and ensure better coordination of institutions responsible for protection and rescue and gender equality. The workshop resulted in a proposal for each country to undertake an activity to launch or advance gender mainstreaming in protection and rescue and reducing the risk of accidents and disasters.

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Balking the Blunders in the Balkans: The Western Strategy

Author(s): Jan Havránek,Filip Tesař / Language(s): English

Since the beginning of the 1990s, the West was obliged to deal with several crises in the Balkans and pledged to a complete reconstruction of the post-war situation in the region. During this demanding process, the Western countries however maximised their traditional stereotyped attitudes towards the Balkan countries. Both the European Union and the United States have typecast the Balkan states according to the extent of the internal problems of these states, and according to their own ability to deal with such issues. Despite the good intentions behind the acting of the West, this process resulted in a mixture of shambolic strategies that have made the Western presence in the region very complicated. The West has been gradually loosing its military and managing respect, given its reluctance to pursue the proclaimed objectives. Such disinclination to act has played into the hands of the local bosses, who very soon found out how the system can be abused in order to satisfy both their electorate and the Western custodians. Nowadays, it is clear that such a hesitant attitude of the West towards the Balkans is no longer sustainable. A significant change in the Western strategy towards the Balkan countries is required, should the integration of the Balkans into the Western structures (i.e. NATO, EU) be successful.

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The importance of verification and transparency in the nuclear arms-control, nonproliferation and disarmament process

Author(s): Miroslav Tůma / Language(s): English

Since the Cold War period the importance of the importance of verifying the treaty obligations, which is one of the main parts of the strengthening of the common trust, has been continuing until the present. At the same time, in the areas of arms-control and international security, the role of nuclear transparency, with the verification of provided data and treaty obligations as its integral part, has been increasing. The necessity of maintaining predictability, mainly between both of the nuclear superpowers (the US and the RF), which possess about 90% of all nuclear weapons in the world, is connected with the need to maintain the arms-control process and an effective verification procedure in cases of other negotiated treaty instruments being concluded. Nuclear disarmament verification procedures should above all take into consideration political and technical challenges connected with the current decreasing numbers of nuclear weapons while taking into account the protection of sensitive data as well. At all relevant security forums, especially at the 10th NPT Review Conference in 2020, the Czech Republic should support the EU initiatives and all other initiatives in favour of maintaining the US-Russia arms-control architecture, especially the proposed extension of the New START Treaty’s validity and verification mechanism in 2021. The possible participation of Czech experts in various verification initiatives would be highly welcomed as well.

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Time to exist and resist: the European Union and Russian political war

Author(s): Mark Galeotti / Language(s): English

Russia is waging a political war campaign of active measures intended to divide, distract, and dismay European states, not as a prelude to any direct military aggression but as a substitute. The institutions of the European Union have made very patchy and often reluctant responses to this campaign, in part as a result of a lack of consensus among member states, in part because the necessary measures – which often focus on cohesion, legitimacy, and more effective counter-intelligence activity – are controversial, complex, long-term and expensive. A primary issue, though, is the dramatically different strategic cultures and operational codes of the EU and Russia. Moscow subscribes to an essentially confrontation, zero-sum perspective that at best interprets the EU’s more inclusive approach as naive, at worse as a pose, concealing malign intent. The EU and member states need to appreciate and understand the nature, scale and objectives of Russia’s political war, and specifically the lack of any set doctrine or “playbook.” This will require deeper investment in expertise within the institutions of the Commission, as well as broadening European understandings of “security.” Addressing issues of corruption, institutional legitimacy, social cohesion and governance is a crucial security concern. Countries at most risk from the ‘legitimacy gap’ are more vulnerable to Russian interference and subversion. The EU must appreciate that as an alliance, weaknesses in the counter-intelligence capacities of one state is a vulnerability for all. There needs to be greater effort on this, and a consensus on the minimum level of acceptable spending on this. The immediate challenge is to act more decisively and collectively to reduce the effectiveness of the instruments used by Moscow in its political war, especially those not simply operating on direct instructions but “adhocrats” seeking to please Moscow. This requires more detailed intelligence gathering, analysis and sharing, which could fall within the remit of INTCEN.

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Stability, sustainability and success in the Sahel: the next steps for the Czech engagement

Author(s): Ondřej Horký-Hlucháň,Jan Daniel,Ondřej Ditrych / Language(s): English

As a follow-up up to the military involvement of the Czech Republic in the region since 2013 and the consequent rural development projects there, the whole-of-government strategy towards the Sahel (G5) is an expression of responsibility and responsiveness to the related security challenges for the European Union and its African partners. By subscribing to the security-development nexus, Czechia recently reinforced its diplomatic presence in the Sahel and spread its activities to the areas of health, migration and civil society. To make its contribution to the Coalition for the Sahel sustainable and complementary to the EU’s efforts, Czechia should update its national strategy to build the Sahel’s forward resilience, expand the governance and development pillars and mainstream human rights and gender. It should also improve the financial planning and mainstream the Sahel in the current budget lines to mobilise domestic expertise, gain public support for the Strategy’s long-term implementation and give credence to the Sahel as a priority during the upcoming Czech presidency of the EU in 2022.

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The EU’s mission to rebuild Ukraine: problems and priorities

Author(s): Artur KOLDOMASOV,Taras Prodaniuk / Language(s): English

Since February 24 of this year, as Russia invaded Ukraine, the economic and political stability in Europe has been disturbed. The continued destruction of Ukraineʼs economy and infrastructure is exacerbating the world crisis and putting parts of the world on the brink of a food crisis. The Ukrainian Recovery Plan presented in Lugano proposes the reconstruction of Ukraine. Since receiving a candidate status, Ukraine is also one step further on its course to membership in the European Union. All this places the EU into the role of the main guardian of the countryʼs post-war reconstruction. This paper recommendsthat the EU and, in particular, the Czech Presidency should organize a comprehensive assistance in this regard and identifies its main priorities. First, besides assisting in upgrading the institutional capacities and efficiency of the central government, the EU should support the local actors and civil society partners in the post-war governance. Second, the post-war recovery should connect Ukraineʼs immediate reconstruction and reform needs and the EUʼs long-term digital and green priorities rather than prioritizing one over the other.

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Czech and Norwegian perspectives on new security threats concerning Russian war on Ukraine. Energy security

Author(s): Jan Mazač,Jakub M. Godzimirski,Lukáš Tichý,Martin Laryš,Zbyněk Dubský / Language(s): English

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 has disrupted the world’s energy system. The most urgent need was to phase out the EU’s dependence on Russian energy imports and find a quick replacement. In this joint paper, we approach the issue from two different perspectives of the Czech Republic and Norway, looking for intersections and identifying opportunities to strengthen cooperation and facilitate the accelerated energy transition and diversification. We conclude that both countries have taken immediate action in addressing the most pressing energy-related risks. The potential for closer cooperation is obvious. Both countries should maximise the level of collaboration by taking advantage of existing institutional frameworks (NATO and EU/EEA). In the energy dimension, the key to cooperation in the short term is gas (investment in production in Norway, development of export pipelines or protecting critical sub-sea infrastructure). In the longer term, both countries should jointly cooperate on developing of hydrogen market, including production and transportation.

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The controversial US withdrawal from the Iranian nuclear deal and its international consequences

Author(s): Miroslav Tůma / Language(s): English

On May 8, 2018, US President Donald Trump went through with his threat and, this time, has not submitted his certification of the implementation of the Iranian nuclear agreement to the US Congress for approval. According to Trump, the document is the “worst deal” of Obama Democratic administration. He made his negative decision despite Iranʼs positive performance in the inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

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Two important summits of President Trump and nuclear disarmament expectations

Author(s): Miroslav Tůma / Language(s): English

Somewhat surprisingly, in a relatively short time interval, approximately over the course of one month in the middle of this year, two important meetings of the American President Donald Trump were held with the highest representatives of two countries which pose long-term security problems to the USA: the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (hereinafter the DPRK) and the Russian Federation (hereinafter the RF). The meeting with the North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un was held on June 12, 2018 in Singapore, and that with the Russian President Vladimir Putin on July 16, 2018 in Helsinki.

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Is There a Threat of a Repeated Deployment of Nuclear “Eurorockets” From the Cold War Period in Europe?

Author(s): Miroslav Tůma / Language(s): English

Will the U.S. unilateral withdrawal from the American-Soviet INF Treaty of 1987 become a possible reality? The Treaty prohibits ground-launched shorter and the middle-range missiles (500–5,500 kms) with nuclear or conventional warheads. The Treaty´s security significance and its main parameters, the legal framework of the withdrawal and the reasons of both parties for accusing each other of violating the Treaty, are discussed in the article as well. In its conclusion the article, among other things, explains the context of the possible termination of the Treaty, and its consequences for the U.S.-Russia arms-control architecture.

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The crucial and fateful nuclear-arms dilemma

Author(s): Miroslav Tůma / Language(s): English

Nuclear weapons are an existential threat to humanity, as are the increasingly intense manifestation of climate change. The Reflection describes more broadly the main risk factors of this threat, including artificial intelligence (AI). In this context, it highlights the impasse which the US-Russian arms control process and strategic dialogue have reached as a result of their strained relations and the ongoing war in Ukraine. It also analyses the expected developments in the nuclear weapon field, taking into account the US Pentagon’s warning about the possible growth of China’s nuclear arsenal. In particular, it concludes by noting the main dilemmas for further development in this area: either the initiation of arms control and risk reduction negotiations by the major nuclear powers or the growing spiral of a costly and security-risk-laden nuclear arms race. The possibility of an ethical and moral commitment by the five permanent members of the UN Security Council, the so-called P5 (the US, Russia, China, France and the UK), to “responsible nuclear behaviour“, which is promoted by the US administration, appears as a temporary solution to this security crisis.

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Scénáře vývoje mezinárodního bezpečnostního prostředí (2020)

Author(s): Vít Beneš,Mats Braun,Marek Čejka,Tomáš Dopita,Jan Eichler,Rudolf Fürst,Vladimír Handl,Michal Kořan,Petr Kratochvíl,Vít Střítecký,Lukáš Tichý / Language(s): Czech

The document discusses the complexity of the global security environment and the emergence of hyper-risks due to interconnected anthropogenic systems. It suggests increasing resilience against hyper-risks by dividing existing systems into smaller units and creating circuit breakers to prevent cascading global reactions. The publication explores creative thinking about the future without precise probabilistic predictions, acknowledging the sudden and unexpected nature of significant events in complex systems, famously termed "black swans" by Nassim Taleb. It also examines geopolitical risks, the relative decline of US power, and the potential for a G-zero World scenario. The project's methodology is based on the complexity of the security environment, rejecting precise probabilistic forecasts and instead offering internally consistent hypotheses about future developments to aid in strategic thinking.

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Scénáře vývoje mezinárodního bezpečnostního prostředí (2017)

Author(s): Vít Beneš,Mats Braun,Marek Čejka,Tomáš Dopita,Jan Eichler,Rudolf Fürst,Vladimír Handl,Michal Kořan,Petr Kratochvíl,Vít Střítecký,Lukáš Tichý / Language(s): Czech

Držíte v rukou závěrečnou studii vznikající v rámci projektu TA ČR Scénáře mezinárodního bezpečnostního prostředí. Uzavírá se jí tříletý cyklus kolektivních spekulací týmu soustředěného v Ústavu mezinárodních vztahů o možnostech vývoje tohoto prostředí. Projekce, které vznikly jako výstupy těchto spekulací, nemají ambici být přesnými předpověďmi. Vysoká komplexita mezinárodního bezpečnostního prostředí jako systému, kde dochází k dynamické interakci množství předem daných skutečností, hybných sil a kritických neznámých, možnost takové předpovědi téměř vylučuje. Naše scénáře sledují jiný cíl: kombinací prediktivního (jaká budoucnost bude) a explorativního (jaká budoucnost může být) přístupu a záměrnou vícečetností podobně pravděpodobných projekcí vývoje v každém sektoru bezpečnostního prostředí být nástroji tvořivého promýšlení možných budoucností, rozšiřování horizontu úvah o tom, jak přispět k naplňování jejich z hlediska české zahraniční politiky nejvýhodnějších variant a zkoušení zažitých předpokladů o tom, co bezpečnostním prostředím, ve kterém se Česká republika nachází, hýbe.

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All for Global Citizens: President Fischer on 75 years of triumph of antifascism

Author(s): Audrey Beaulieu / Language(s): English

Early summer days of 2020 in Vienna sow marking the anniversary of Nuremberg Trials with the conference “From the Victory Day to Corona Disarray: 75 years of Europe’s Collective Security and Human Rights System – Legacy of Antifascism for the Common Pan-European Future”. This was the first public and probably the largest conference in Europe past the early spring lockdown. It gathered numerous speakers and audience physically in the venue while many others attended online.

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The Future of Turkey after the Last Elections: the Kurdish question and the economic outlook

Author(s): Diego Del Priore / Language(s): English

The last parliamentary elections in Turkey mark a political and an institutional turning point in the country's history. The importance of the vote derives from two main factors. Firstly, Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu's Party of Justice and Development (AKP) has lost its parliamentary majority, although it remains the largest party in the Parliament with 258 seats and 40.9% of the votes. This is the first time that the party has been in this position since 2002, when the AKP swept to power and retained a majority in the Turkish Parliament. However, the AKP failed to achieve its objective of 350 seats, as the party leader and president of the Republic since August 2014, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, had hoped.

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WAR ECHOES INTENSIFY FEARS - VIEWS OF SERBIAN CITIZENS ON RELATIONS IN THE REGION

Author(s): Gorana Pebić,Ivana Ranković,Luka Šterić / Language(s): English

The Belgrade Centre for Security Policy conducted the annual public opinion survey on relations in the region, with a special focus on the Western Balkan countries and current events and trends. This report analyses Serbian citizens’ views on three main topics – the possibility of conflicts in the Balkans, Serbia’s bilateral relations with its neighbours, as well as key benefits and opportunities of regional cooperation and initiatives. Due to the current war in Ukraine and the war-mongering rhetoric in the Balkans, the fear of outbreak of conflict in the Balkans has risen. Compared to results from 2020, when more than half of citizens were not afraid of possible conflicts at all, the 2022 survey shows that almost two thirds of respondents are to a certain extent afraid of the outbreak of conflicts in the region in the next five years. Concerning potential causes of the conflict in the region, two-thirds of Serbian citizens believe that it is very or somewhat likely that a conflict might break out over the status of Kosovo. On the other hand, the results of the survey indicate a significant decrease in support of the reintroduction of mandatory military service, in comparison to results from 2020. When it comes to bilateral relations between Serbia and its neighbouring countries, the data shows a decline in support for potential separation of Republic of Srpska from Bosnia and Herzegovina and unification with Serbia. Citizens believe that relations between Serbia and Montenegro have not improved significantly, despite the signing of the Fundamental Agreement with the Serbian Orthodox Church. On the contrary, the negative perception of Serbian public towards Albania has slightly improved over the last two years, mainly due to the closer cooperation between the leaders of the two countries through the Open Balkan initiative. However, regional relations are still seen as strained, in part due to the promotion of the concept of Serbian world which creation is supported by slightly more than 40% of citizens. In 2022, the focus of the public in terms of regional cooperation was directed more directly to the Open Balkan initiative as a platform for collaboration between Albania, North Macedonia and Serbia. Although the data show an increase in the number of Serbian citizens who are familiar with the idea, there are still no concrete and publicly visible results of the initiative

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České balancování Čínské a Tchajwanské agendy: Improvizací netřeba

Author(s): Rudolf Fürst / Language(s): Czech

The contradictions surrounding the terminated Prague-Beijing treaty and the planned trips of Senate Presidents Jaroslav Kubera and his successor Miroslav Vystrčil to Taiwan have unexpectedly problematicized the view of Czech policy balancing between Taiwan and China. Will our Taiwanese contacts disrupt relations with the politically more important China and damage our economic interests in the PRC? The well-managed practice of simultaneously balancing Czech interests in Taiwan and China, lasting over two decades, has unexpectedly become complicated and has become the subject of sharp disputes about supporting Taiwan and defending national dignity from pressure from the Chinese embassy. The following text recaps the experience of the Czech Republic's dual diplomacy towards the PRC and Taiwan and identifies a crisis of confidence in the use of options that are easily offered, that have proven successful, and that the Czech Republic learned to manage already in the 1990s. The escalation of the Czech domestic debate is observed in connection with the split in Czech policy towards China and its domestic politicization. Taiwan has become another example of how the Czech public debate in mediatized abbreviations shifts to identity stories that distract attention from the essence, which is the common pragmatic need of the state's foreign policy. The conclusion recommends a return to proven practice and consideration of strengthening the positions of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the government, which should not be exposed to the role of bystanders. Visits by Czech state representatives to Taiwan at the highest level - the President, Prime Minister, line minister and chairmen of both chambers of the Parliament of the Czech Republic - for substantive and relevant reasons, it is not necessary to reject them a priori, but to proceed with them as exceptional steps subject to the consensus of politically responsible actors. In this context, the trip of the President of the Senate to Taiwan is insufficiently justified.

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