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№123: Still a “Strategic” EU–NATO Partnership? Bridging Governance Challenges through Practical Cooperation

Author(s): John Todd / Language(s): English

The EU and NATO share a common interest in responding effectively to threats posed by Russia in the east and by Islamic extremist to the south of Europe. However, bilateral issues and the pursuit of national interests, especially those involving Cyprus and Turkey, as well as a general lack of strategic convergence have limited the effectiveness of both organisations’ crisis-management capabilities. In times of a deteriorating security environment these limitations will be even more detrimental for Euro-Atlantic security. Poland and Norway, participants in both the EU and NATO missions and two principal countries of the GoodGov project are well positioned to break this institutional deadlock.

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№122: Afghan National Army: Improved but Still in Need of Massive Support

Author(s): Beata Górka-Winter / Language(s): English

After more than a decade of international military assistance in Afghanistan, the newly created AfghanNational Security Forces are still facing several daunting challenges, including the need to stabilise astill volatile security situation and sustain a sufficient level of manpower. The latter, in particular, mayprove to be extremely difficult, as statistics show that the ranks of the Afghan National Army (ANA)are shrinking dramatically. On the one hand, many independent assessments show that the ANA hasreached a high level of maturity and efficiency in combating the insurgency (as demonstrated by theANA recently when parliament was attacked by the Taliban). Moreover, the armed forces also receivea level of social support unprecedented in the modern history of Afghanistan. On the other hand, theunstable political situation, a potential loss of financial support from donors, and the re-emergence ofmilitias that, under the command of warlords, act as parallel security forces in Afghanistan, may resultin the progressive disintegration of the ANA, depriving it of the strong mandate given to it by theAfghan population.

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№102: Unaided Refugees Make ISIS Stronger: Europe and the Worst Humanitarian Crisis of the 21st Century

Author(s): Ana Uzelac / Language(s): English

The worst humanitarian crisis of this century so far is unfolding daily in Europe's closest neighbourhood. Some 10 million Syrians and Iraqis have been displaced by sectarian conflicts over the past three years, and are living suspended lives in camps or makeshift shelters across the Middle East. It is as if all of Austria or Hungary was forced out of their homes. The fate of displaced Syrians and Iraqis is not only a moral dilemma for Europeans, it is a future security threat in the making. If abandoned and unassisted they risk becoming radicalised in the future, creating a potential recruitment and support base for anti-European extremism. Although the EU, and especially its better-off Member States, have already done a lot to assist the region with the refugee flow, response to the crisis should be expanded further, tailored and diversified. It should also be shouldered equitably by all EU members, in proportion to their size and national income. This crisis is too big and its consequences too far-reaching for any EU member to opt out.

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№084: Insanity or Part of a Plan? Prospects for Changes to North Korean Domestic and Foreign Policy

Author(s): Nicolas Levi / Language(s): English

Ever since previous North Korean leader Kim Jong-il passed away in December 2011, concerns about the new North Korean regime have been growing. Although the international community has worried mainly about the country’s foreign policy, especially nuclear and missile threats, recent news about a purge in the North Korean leadership has brought to the fore the question of the regime’s internal stability. Kim Jong-un has been steadily building a new system of governance, giving more power to the Korean Workers' Party apparatus at the expense of the armed forces. He has also shown interest in boosting North Korea’s economy. In foreign and security policy, however, in the short term, North Korea is likely to continue on its previous uncompromising course.

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№083: The Future of the European Defence Industry after the December Summit: Ten Polish Priorities

Author(s): Paulina Zamelek / Language(s): English

December’s European Council Summit for heads of state or government has been tasked to deliberate European defence industry issues based on proposals provided by the European Commission. A divergence of interests expressed by interlocutors representing Member States, national defence industries and European institutions could result in heated political debate. The ability to accommodate the interests of Central Eastern Europe and Poland in particular in this process is not yet certain, especially as the EU’s ambitious plans for strengthening the European Defence Technological and Industrial Base (EDTIB) are discordant with the current level playing field across Europe.

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№081: Storm over Foreign Funding Continues in Egypt

Author(s): Kinga Brudzińska / Language(s): English

Similar to the situation before the Arab Awakening, state control of civil associations in Egypt remains intact. Correspondingly, foreign funding for NGOs is still a controversial, selective and sensitive topic. Despite the objections of civil society and the international community, a new draft law on NGOs presented in September 2013 will most likely maintain the idea of state oversight of civil society organisations. The European Union, and Poland itself, should constantly monitor the status of the new draft law and actively encourage the authorities to comply with international standards. Despite difficulties with delivering the aid, the EU should stick to its values while supporting Egypt’s transition and continue to provide aid to local NGOs.

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№079: Awaiting Justice: Prospects for Prosecuting War Crimes in Syria

Author(s): Maria Radziejowska / Language(s): English

In light of the current situation in Syria, and calls to hold to account those responsible for the atrocities allegedly committed during the conflict, a group of members of the American Congress suggested that the Security Council should create an ad hoc tribunal for Syria. A Blue Ribbon Panel of international criminal law experts presented a draft Statute for a Syrian Extraordinary Tribunal to Prosecute Atrocity Crimes, while some of the Security Council members suggested referring the situation in Syria to the International Criminal Court. Issues pertaining to establishing justice and restoring the rule of law in Syria will certainly be on the agenda for future peace talks. The question of working out a transitional justice strategy for the country is inevitable. Whether such a strategy should include a judicial accountability mechanism will certainly be considered.

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№070: In the Shadow of Syria: Review of the Chemical Weapons Convention

Author(s): Szymon Bocheński / Language(s): English

A review of the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) has concluded that chemical weapons disarmament is on track. However, the information about the alleged use of chemical weapons in Syria has added a new sense of urgency to chemical weapons disarmament. It has proven that a global ban on this lethal arms category cannot be achieved without making the CWC a truly universal treaty. At the same time, the Review Conference recognised new challenges associated with the rapid growth of the chemical industry worldwide. The Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons will have to find a golden mean to ensure implementation of the Convention without hampering the peaceful uses of chemicals.

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№065: Turkey at a Tipping Point: Why the EU Should Use Gezi to Rebalance Ankara’s Foreign Policy

Author(s): Pinar Elman / Language(s): English

Protests that began over the re-development of Gezi Park in Istanbul and spread throughout the country mark a turning point not just in Turkey’s domestic policy but in its foreign policy, too. The protestors demand a pluralistic democracy, rule of law, secularism, decentralisation of power from party elites, greater transparency and non-interference in private life. The EU, which increasingly looks on Turkey as a key regional partner, has an interest in reining in certain aspects of its domestic and foreign policies that seem to have been driven by the ideology of the governing AKP party.

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№062: The Western Balkans and the Alliance: All Is Not Well on NATO’s Southern Flank?

Author(s): Kacper Rękawek / Language(s): English

NATO maintains its dedication to its “open door policy,” and the Western Balkans effectively constitute the only potential enlargement area for the Alliance in the near future. Three Western Balkan countries are official membership candidates but their NATO bids suffer from a string of problems which have already delayed and could potentially also derail their Alliance prospects. Currently, the main tasks of Macedonia, Montenegro and Bosnia and Herzegovina are to construct a positive political discourse related to their Euro-Atlantic prospects and to persevere with their NATO ambitions. Such a feat, however, will not be achieved without completion of Alliance related “homework.”

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№052: Could the Arctic Warm Up NATO–Russia Relations?

Author(s): Wojciech Lorenz / Language(s): English

The stakes in the Arctic are high, but only cooperation will unlock the full potential of the region. The peaceful and secure Arctic can become an attractive transport corridor and energy provider. Yet, a lack of trust and transparency could easily lead to tensions and a militarisation of the region, making it less attractive for investments. To avoid such a scenario, Russia and NATO should use existing forms of cooperation and extend them to the Arctic.

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№051: Georgian Dream’s Foreign Policies: An Attempt to Change the Paradigm?

Author(s): Konrad Zasztowt / Language(s): English

Critics of current Prime Minister Bidzina Ivanishvili, including President Mikheil Saakashvili and his opposition United National Movement party, claim that the new Georgian government is undermining Georgia’s stable Euro-Atlantic course in its foreign policies. They suggest the prime minister’s inclination is to change the country’s policies from pro-Western to pro-Russian. The other element of their criticism towards Ivanishvili is that he is attempting to withdraw from the path of democratic reforms. The authorities reject these accusations but don’t deny that they seek to radically modify the policies of their predecessors. These changes include not only domestic but also foreign policies. Although the country’s commitment to the goals of integration with the EU and NATO is still backed by the new government, some statements and decisions by the prime minister suggest his will to reinvent the approach towards his Western partners. Also, his rhetoric concerning Georgia’s Caucasus neighbours may suggest some significant modifications in Georgia’s regional relationships. This paper analyzes the probability of a “paradigm shift” in Georgia’s foreign policy towards the EU, NATO, Russia, Armenia and Azerbaijan.

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№045: Yawning Gaps in NATO Planning

Author(s): Wojciech Lorenz / Language(s): English

NATO is preparing new defence plans with the potential of having available the scarcest military resources ever. Although the Alliance is attempting to create leaner, better equipped deployable forces, it is losing capabilities crucial for both projecting power and territorial defence. Since NATO is determined to adapt to new threats, planning teams may be forced to further de-emphasise assets needed for the credibility of Article 5.

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№041: China’s Response to the United States’ Asia–Pacific Strategy

Author(s): Justyna Szczudlik-Tatar / Language(s): English

Since China and the U.S. try to present a tougher stance towards each other, both countries seem to have found themselves on the collision course. China’s growing economic influence, military strength and rising assertiveness in the region has paved the way for deeper U.S. involvement in Asia–Pacific. Although official Chinese response is muted, U.S. policy is seen by the PRC as a threat to its position as a great regional power and a future global superpower. Justyna Szczudlik-Tatar explains in this paper how the countries that are “neither friends nor foes” pursue their goals and what could be the outcome of the tensions between them.

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№033: Central European Approaches to the Protection of Civil Nuclear Programmes

Author(s): Kacper Rękawek / Language(s): English

Security of civil nuclear programmes is not exactly front page news in Central Europe, nonetheless it deserves to be closely followed in the light of intentions to expand the use of nuclear power in the case of the Czech Republic and Hungary, or its introduction as part of the energy mix in Poland. The author diagnoses a considerable degree of assuredness about the level of nuclear security among Central Europeans, and assigns it to a relatively small size of their nuclear programmes, as well as their purely civil orientation. Security arrangements are considered to be adequate in the light of potential breaches of nuclear security either via instances of non-violent, anti-nuclear environmental activism, or the possibility of a deliberate terrorist strike.

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№021: Peace and Development Efforts in Afghanistan: A Lost Decade

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English

The paper summarises the last decade in Afghanistan and points at critical mistakes made by the international community. The author argues that Western powers did not treat Afghan security and reconstruction seriously and displayed much ignorance about its regional environment—all in all causing the great opportunity to put the country on its own feet to be lost. The modest achievements in Afghanistan will be at grave risk as the West prepares to leave the country by 2014. The international commitment to Afghanistan needs to be reinvigorated before the country descends into yet another war. The analysis concludes with a set of crucial lessons learned from the Afghan conflict for future peace-and-reconstruction missions.

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№015: How Terrorist Leaders End: Implications for the Future of the Struggle with al-Qaeda

Author(s): Kacper Rękawek / Language(s): English

Po śmierci Osamy bin Ladena dyskusja wokół strategicznego kierunku, jaki powinna obrać kampania wymierzona w Al-Ka'idę, nabrała nowego wymiaru. Autor niniejszej analizy dowodzi, że optymalna strategia walki z tą organizacją powinna brać pod uwagę dotychczasowe doświadczenia i skutki zmian, jakie następowały w kierownictwach głównych grup terrorystycznych. Spośród wielu scenariuszy tego rodzaju zmian tylko niektóre można uznać za prawdopodobne w przypadku Al-Ka'idy. Strategia, która polegałaby na dążeniu do poważnego zakłócenia prawdopodobnej "linii sukcesji" przywództwa Al-Ka'idy byłaby wprawdzie mniej spektakularna niż kontynuowanie kampanii przeciwko jej obecnym liderom, ale mogłaby się okazać bardziej efektywna w długim okresie. Analizie towarzyszy szczegółowe zestawienie dostępnych informacji o sposobach, w jakich dochodziło do zmian na czele najważniejszych organizacji terrorystycznych na świecie.

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№006: Transformation of the Chechen Insurgency

Author(s): Kacper Rękawek / Language(s): English

W artykule omówiono najważniejsze przyczyny przekształceń rebelii w Czeczenii, jako zjawiska motywowanego początkowo głównie przesłankami etnicznymi i emancypacyjnymi, a następnie w rosnącym stopniu kontrolowanego przez środowiska islamistyczne, zgłaszające ogólno regionalne ambicje i demonstrujące zdolność do działania także poza Kaukazem Północnym. Islamizacja rebelii w niemałym stopniu wynikała z rzeczywistej atrakcyjności tych postulatów, zarówno w społeczeństwie, jak i wśród elit Czeczenii, zwłaszcza w obliczu klęski drugiej wojny o niepodległość (1999-2000). Proces ten wzmocniła również decyzja władz Rosji o wpisaniu ich reakcji na rebelię w koncepcję „wojny z terroryzmem”. Autor stwierdza, że islamizacja doprowadziła wprawdzie do dynamizacji rebelii, zarazem jednak wykluczyła możliwość zewnętrznego zaangażowania w doprowadzenie do zakończenia konfliktu. Z kolei Rosja pozostanie zainteresowana głównie utrzymaniem kontroli nad regionem, traktując rebelię jako wyzwanie w sferze bezpieczeństwa, a przez to pomijając jej tło polityczne, społeczne i ekonomiczne.

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Regional Approaches to the Role of Missile Defence in Reducing Nuclear Threats

Author(s): / Language(s): English

The importance of the issue of missile defence was underlined at the end of 2012 and in the first few months of 2013 by several events, including Israel’s Operation Pillar of Defence, NATO’s Patriot deployments to the Turkish–Syrian border and the nuclear and missile crisis in North Korea.The report adds to the ongoing discussion about the relationship between missile defence and nuclear deterrence while keeping in mind the vision of a world free of nuclear weapons promoted by the current U.S. administration. The interconnections between missile defence and nuclear deterrence are complicated. While in some cases MD development can lead to a decrease in nuclear arsenals, in some regions it might have a more negative effect of fuelling nuclear arms races. The added value of the report is its wide range: readers will find perspectives on missile defence presented by authors dealing with these issues in not only the transatlantic and European contexts but also in Russia, the Middle East, South Asia and the Far East. Regardless of the various perspectives, contexts and conclusions of the report’s individual chapters, there is no disagreement that missile defence is already influencing the thinking about nuclear weapons and deterrence. It also reveals that the interconnections between missile defence and nuclear deterrence might be more complicated than any idealistic expectations about the former as a substitute for the latter. The role of missile defence in shaping the security environment will only be growing. We encourage every reader to engage in further exchanges of opinions with our staff and all the authors of this report.

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The Future of NATO’s Deterrence and Defence Posture: Views from Central Europe

Author(s): / Language(s): English

The Polish Institute of International Affairs is pleased to present the report The Future of NATO’s Deterrence and Defence Posture: Views from Central Europe, published as part of a partnership with the Nuclear Security Project. The report includes contributions of experts from Central Europe and the United States, it was edited by Łukasz Kulesa, head of the Non-proliferation and Arms Control Project at PISM. The year 2012 saw the completion of the Deterrence and Defence Posture Review (DDPR), which was mandated by the 2010 NATO summit in Lisbon. This process involved a comprehensive re-examination of the utility of the main elements of NATO’s posture: nuclear weapons, missile defence capabilities and conventional forces, as well as arms-control and disarmament issues. Using the DDPR as the point of departure, the report is meant to provide an analytical glimpse into the future—the next decade of the functioning of NATO’s deterrence posture, as seen from Central Europe. It concentrates on the regional perceptions of the security environment and threats, the assessments of the credibility of NATO’s policy, and the way forward. Taken into account the perspective of a turbulent decade in which the viability of NATO’s defence and deterrence posture will be subjected to external and internal pressures, understanding the concerns and viewpoints of Central Europeans would help in charting the right course for the Alliance.

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