Transitions Online_Around the Bloc-25 May
Our news roundup: protests break out in Belarus; Russian airspace violations; NGOs in Kyrgyzstan targeted; remote voting in Russia; and a cross-ethnic, Balkan friendship.
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Our news roundup: protests break out in Belarus; Russian airspace violations; NGOs in Kyrgyzstan targeted; remote voting in Russia; and a cross-ethnic, Balkan friendship.
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The subject of this article concerns safety in transport in the context of broadly understood contemporary challenges. The study characterizes the impact of transport on individual types of safety. Ecological, personal and economic security were selected for the analysis. The purpose of this article is to attempt to synthetically address the issue of safety in transport while taking into account several selected areas of this safety. Selected types of security will be considered: ecological, personal and economic. It is the transport that presents new challenges that will affect the level of safety in the future. Today, the most important thing for the environment is to secure all parts of the infrastructure, both point and line, so that the movement process takes place without any irregularities that could result in damage to health and even loss of human life.
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The article is an attempt to answer the question about the character of contemporary war by outlining a counterpoint between the strategic thought of the two most valued classics of military thought - Sun Tzu and Carl von Clausewitz. The author analyses interpretations of contemporary armed conflicts, which preach the obsolescence of Clausewitz's strategic thought and the transition to a postmodern paradigm based on Sun Tzu theses. The article argues with this approach, defending the legitimacy of the elements of political and military strategy used in past conflicts based on the Clausewitzian paradigm, as well as the universality of the Prussian general's theses on the philosophical nature of war.
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The relative ease of international travel, coupled with open borders across much of the European Union provides capacity for some serious violent or sexual offenders to utilise these advancements to increase their opportunities to offend. In 2013, an EU-funded project reviewed existing information exchange systems and the challenges of collaborative working across EU Member States to manage such offenders. This article reviews key issues arising from that research, and a range of ideological, ethical and legal differences and constraints that impact upon the choices and actions of law enforcement and probation personnel.
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A conversation with Basil Kerski, director of the European Solidarity Centre in Gdańsk. Interviewer: Iwona Reichardt
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Despite the fact that western governments – those of the United States and France – are co-responsible for supervising the resolution process of the Nagorno- Karabakh conflict, their response to the recent outbreak of hostilities had been, at best, ineffective. This vacuum has been filled by Russia, which has long sought to play the role of a major mediator in the conflict, and Turkey, a new entrant to the region that recently became determined to get more involved in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. The simultaneous involvement of the two regional powers in the South Caucasus is reminiscent of the situation in Syria and Libya where Turkey and Russia have had conflicting interests but attempted to negotiate them. This time, however, Russia strives to dominate the peacekeeping process in Nagorno-Karabakh to reinforce its traditional sphere of influence in the post-Soviet space.
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A few years after the peak of the 2015 migration crisis, this type of nonmilitary threat has become an important part of the political debate at national and supranational level of the European Union. The Republic of Croatia, as a part of the so-called Balkan Route, is no exception. Migration crisis from the 2015/2016 represents one of the most important issues discussed during the 2019/2020 presidential election campaign in the Republic of Croatia. Applying critical discourse analysis, this paper aims to explore the views of presidential candidates Zoran Milanović and Kolinda Grabar-Kitarović regarding the security challenges caused by mass migration. Units of analysis are the statements of the presidential candidates presented at the three television debates held during the presidential election campaign.
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Following the 1991 August coup in Moscow, the Chechen Republic of Ichkeria was declared in the territory of the former Checheno-Ingush Autonomous Soviet Socialist Republic. However, the newly independent state was never recognized internationally, relegating it to the status of a politically secessionist area where the laws of the Russian Federation did not apply. The remaining Russian military units left the area in the summer of 1992, abandoning their armaments which were immediately seized by separatist Chechen forces. In 1994, Russia attacked the Chechen Republic of Ichkeria, launching the First Chechen War (1994–1996) where the Chechens managed to inflict heavy losses on the Russian forces. Due to the influx of money and volunteers from the Islamic world, the military operations of Shamil Basayev (1965–2006), and, most importantly, due to the dilapidated state of the Russian economy and army, the Chechens were able to regain their independence by the autumn of 1996. The subsequent period of Chechnya’s independence (1996–1999) demonstrated just how poorly prepared the Chechens were for independent statehood: the central government functioned only in the capital Grozny (renamed Dzhokhar-Ghala during this period), while elsewhere the territory was ruled by recalcitrant field commanders and local chieftans. Meanwhile, the Russian army, as well as the Russian public at large, were much better prepared for the Second Chechen War which began in October 1999. By March 2000 most of Chechnya was conquered and the pro-independence forces had retreated to the mountains. By 2002 armed resistance had subsided into guerrilla warfare. By 2004 the pro-independence forces had about a thousand men whose leadership sought to maintain the vision of the Chechen Republic of Ichkeria. At the same time, the Kadyrov dynasty came to power in Chechnya, supported by the Russians. Surprisingly for a war-torn nation, the new leadership managed to secure popular support. Today, substantive resistance in Chechnya has come to an end. However, there are some moderate Chechen nationalists keeping alive the image of the independent Chechnya in the West, but nothing has been heard of them lately. The Chechen field manual of combat tactics, a short booklet of a mere dozen pages, seized by the Russians as a war trophy, has hereby been translated into Estonian. The document indicates that its original publisher is the National Defence Committee – an advisory body to the government of the Chechen Republic of Ichkeria that was formed by the secessionist leadership in 2002 and headed by Shamil Basayev, one of the most experienced field commanders of the Chechen independence movement.
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The aim of this study is to discuss nexus between defense spending and certain economic variables in Lithuania during 2009–2018. Considering the fact that there are no universal analytical tools for measuring defense expenditure nexus with economic growth, in this study, data comparison and correlation analyses are conducted with key economic variables being interpreted. Increased defense spending, successful reforms in the Armed Forces, and NATO/EU activities contributed to the security of Lithuania and provided positive stimulus for the national economy. The term security fluctuate factor, describing the yearly security investment responsiveness effect on the state economy, is offered in the study for the first time. The main results support nexus findings between defense spending and economic growth as they indicate positive correlation between distinctive state economic variables and extensive defense spending in Lithuania, especially in the post-2014 period.
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The war in Afghanistan began with the Soviet intervention and geopolitical developments of this crisis somehow attracted all the claiming actors of the international system. In this article, the authors have analysed the role of Russia and Iran by acknowledging the role of local causes and the other actors such as the United States, China, India, Pakistan, and Saudi Arabia in complicating the Afghanistan crisis. The difference between the role of Russia and Iran and that of other countries is that the two countries are trying to drive the US out of Afghanistan. That is, although they also have secondary goals, their priority is to make Afghanistan unsafe for the United States. The authors are thus trying to answer this question: “in a long process what steps have been taken by Russia and Iran to neutralize the US in Afghanistan so far?”
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Review of: Juraj Sekula - Miljenko Brekalo, ur., Virovitica u Domovinskom ratu (Virovitica: Državni arhiv u Virovitici, 2018), 492 str.
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After the death of Josip Broz Tito in 1980, the Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (SFRJ) entered the crisis-ridden 1980’s. These years were marked by events in Kosovo in 1981 and 1989, long-lasting economic crises, and the rise of Greater Serbian nationalism directed against the federal state envisioned and adopted by the 1974 SFRJ Constitution, which drew a reaction from non- Serbs. With the inclusion of the Yugoslav People’s Army, it became evident that the notion of “Greater Serbia” became deeply embedded within that institution, which was largely populated by Serbs, and which had, through the years, created a picture of itself as the defender of Tito’s legacy. Towards the end of the 1980s, the restructuring of the JNA according to the “Jedinstvo” (“Unity”) plan was completed, and resulted in the centralization of the army. This restructuring was completed to the detriment of Territorial Defense, which served as an element of Republican armies, to the advantage of the Yugoslav People’s Army, its former legal equal. In this manner, top-ranks of the military openly supported the political power of Serbia and Montenegro, who as opposed to the remaining republics, pressed for the reorganization of Yugoslavia into a centralized state. In the dusk of the bi-polar world, this option had no real basis, which could be grounded on external threats. After the victory of democratic forces in Croatia and the resulting change in government, the JNA immediately disarmed the Croatian Territorial Defense. At the same time, the redistribution of troops across the region of Zagreb was completed, and began with the construction of the 10th corps, whose task was to pacify the city with tactics acquired in Kosovo in the 1980s. The structure of troops in armed and mobilized units in Croatia and near Croatia during peacetime was strengthened, and was particularly significant in areas where Croats formed the majority. In this manner, dependency on personnel was reduced, and with regards to the strength of these mobilized units, it was anticipated that they would be the focal point in an armed conflict in Croatia.
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The good relationship developed between Yugoslavia and Great Britain during the 1950s, inspite of ideological and political differences, has to examined within the context of the then-dominant politics of the Cold War in Europe and the world. The break between Yugoslavia and the Soviet-led Eastern Bloc was seen in western circles as an opportunity to similarly draw other “satellite” countries toward the west. As this policy was shown to be unsuccessful, Yugoslavia became an example of a country building socialism yet politically tied to the west, and as such came to play a new role in the strategic considerations of the North Atlantic alliance. Yugoslavia drew short-term as well as long-term benefits from this new position: it obtained economic and military aid no longer forthcoming from the “peoples’ democracies” that allowed it to realize its economic plans. Likewise, the political advantages were also considerable: even though it was still considered a communist country, the economic and administrative reforms that went along with ideological experimentation at this time drew the interest of western countries which expected it to develop along the lines of western democratic models.
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The paper points to the questions that countries deal with, which are domestic and international at the same time, and their correlation is particularly shown in the time of globalisation and making of new world order. Various factors influence one country’s behaviour in international relations. The main factor, among those outside the country’s borders, which has influence decision making in international relations, is the geopolitical position. And among the inside factors which form foreign policy are: country’s economic power, military power and political system.
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U radu se piše o pitanjima sa kojima se države susreću, a koje su istovremeno međunarodna i domaća, a posebno se njihova uzajamnost iskazuje u vremenu globalizacije i stvaranja novog svetskog poretka. Uticaj na ponašanje država u međunarodnim odnosima imaju različiti faktori. Glavni faktor van granica države koji utiče na donošenje odluka u međunarodnim odnosima je geopolitički položaj zemlje. A među unutrašnje faktore, na osnovu kojih se modelira spoljna politika spadaju: ekonomska moć države, vojna moć i politički sistem.
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It has been 80 years since the dramatic year of 1940, when Romania, by the will of the great powers, was forced to cede a third of its territory. The Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact (August 1939) and then the abusive decisions taken by Germany, the USSR and Italy through the Vienna Diktat (August 30, 1940) and the Treaty of Craiova (September 7, 1940) threw Romania into the chaos of history. Hundreds of thousands of refugees and evacuees from the areas occupied by the new rulers suffered the most. Some of them remained, at any risk, on their homeland, while others preferred the road abroad, to be with their brothers in a nation and faith. The Romanian authorities, through the competent institutions – the General Commissariats for Refugees – tried to alleviate their situation, in the most efficient way, allocating generous funds for their integration in the Romanian society. Unfortunately, for the Romanians left in the ceded territories, the situation was rather desperate and extremely dangerous, especially in the northeast of Transylvania and in Bessarabia and northern Bukovina. Some of the refugees from Bessarabia returned home in the summer of 1941, when the Romanian army liberated the historical territories annexed by the USSR, and in Transylvania after 1944.
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The tragic summer of 1940 brought, for Romania, not just the loss of Bessarabia and Northern Bucovina in favour of the Soviet Union and of roughly half of Transylvania to Hungary, but also the retrocession of Southern Dobruja to Bulgaria. The Romanian State had obtained this territory in 1913 appealing to geopolitical justifications. The hereby article briefly presents the main points related to the evolution of this region within interwar Romania, the plans of Romanian and Bulgarian decision-makers in the context of 1938-1940, the conditions surrounding its surrender in the summer of 1940 and the concrete aspects concerning this territorial cession. The sources include numerous Romanian, Bulgarian and Western contributions, newer and older, as well as several documents from Romanian national, diplomatic and military archives. An inseparable part of the drama of the Greater Romania, the cession of Quadrilater nevertheless highlights strong individual characteristics. Similarly, the reasons invoked for obtaining this region during the years of the Balkan Wars and its identity and evolution within Romania, were also distinctive.
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The General Framework Agreement for Peace in Bosnia and Herzegovina was signed after the war 1992-1995 by nine signatories. Shortly after the signing of the Peace Agreement, it became clear that Bosnia and Herzegovina could not be a functioning state without a revision of Annex 4 - the Bosnia and Herzegovina Constitution. No significant progress has been made in the past twenty-five years, except for those decisions taken by the High Representative. Although the revision of the Bosnia and Herzegovina Constitution is a key existential issue, which has been repeatedly ordered to Bosnia and Herzegovina by both the Council of Europe and the European Union, two questions arise. First, whether the Bosnia and Herzegovina state can independently fulfill its international obligations without the active participation of all signatories of the General Framework Agreement for Peace in Bosnia and Herzegovina? And second, to what extent are the representatives of the international community, primarily the Institution of the High Representative, co-responsible for the stagnation and decay of Bosnia and Herzegovina? The answer is given in numerous Resolutions of the Council of Europe and the EU, which explicitly state that the revision of the Bosnia and Herzegovina Constitution must be carried out in order to strengthen state institutions at the expense of the Institutions at Entity level, under the pressure from the international community and through the action of the Office of the High Representative (Council of Europe 2004).
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