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Italy Reworks Energy Policy after the Russian Invasion of Ukraine

Author(s): Łukasz Maślanka / Language(s): English

Russia’s aggression against Ukraine forced the Italian authorities to quickly seek alternative gas supplies and sparked a debate about the risks of dependence on foreign commodities. Despite favourable natural conditions, both the development of renewable energy sources (RES) and domestic gas production are hampered by bureaucratic obstacles and opposition in local communities. Continued dependence on energy imports will eventually push Italy to normalise relations with Russia.

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№124: The Impact of the War in Ukraine on the Political Stability of Russia

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner,Agnieszka Legucka,Wojciech Lorenz / Language(s): English

Although the Russian army has suffered a series of defeats in Ukraine, the Putin regime does not feel defeated and its stability is not threatened. The ability to control the internal situation allows the Russian authorities to wage war with Ukraine for years to come in order to achieve the assumed strategic goals of subordinating Ukraine and enforcing a buffer zone on the territory of some NATO countries. This requires Western countries to take a long-term approach to deterring the Russian threat and supporting Ukraine’s ability to regain control over lost territory.

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№126: Tandem Faces an Uncertain Future: Franco-German Relations in a Time of War and Inflation

Author(s): Łukasz Jasiński,Łukasz Maślanka / Language(s): English

The COVID-19 pandemic and the crises caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine represent the most serious test for the Franco-German tandem since the creation of the EU. Leaders in both countries share a conviction of the necessity of mutual cooperation, further increased by the compromise worked out around the EU’s post-pandemic recovery plan. However, the catalogue of divergences between France and Germany is long and includes crucial issues such as the shape of the common market, energy policy, and defence. A possible permanent loosening of the tandem may benefit Poland, but only on the condition that the country maintains constructive relations with France and Germany, cooperates well with EU institutions, and correctly diagnoses Polish interests in the areas of the Franco-German dispute.

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№114: Consequences of the Russian Invasion of Ukraine for the 1997 NATO-Russia Founding Act

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner,Artur Kacprzyk,Wojciech Lorenz / Language(s): English

Russia’s revisionist policy, which culminated in the invasion of Ukraine on 24 February, tore down the foundations of the Euro-Atlantic security system based on the international law and principles listed in the 1997 NATO-Russia Founding Act. Despite Russia’s repeated violations of its commitments, NATO has been unilaterally honouring the Act, including by not stationing permanent substantial combat forces in the eastern part of the Alliance. However, given the current security situation, NATO should declare that it does not feel bound by the self-imposed military limitations of the Act. Honouring them is of no benefit in relations with Russia, impedes a response to the Russian threat, and creates unnecessary risk.

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№131: EU Tackles Changes in Global Economic Competition

Author(s): Melchior Szczepanik / Language(s): English

Shaken by the experience of the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s full-scale aggression against Ukraine, the EU has adopted a series of legal acts to reduce dependence on authoritarian powers, create new instruments to defend against unfair competition, and facilitate the modernisation of the industrial sector. The smooth implementation of the green and digital transitions will be crucial to the success of these measures, but it requires additional financial resources. Furthermore, the drive to increase self-sufficiency in strategic sectors and build a low-carbon, sustainable economy is difficult to reconcile with a liberal approach focused on deregulation and short-term profit maximisation.

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№133: Options for Securing Free Trade Navigation in the Black Sea

Author(s): Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski,Daniel Szeligowski / Language(s): English

Russia’s withdrawal from the grain deal poses again the risk of destabilising the global food market. However, it is a reflection of a much larger problem represented by the Russian year-and-a-half-long blockade of the Black Sea, which has allowed it to gradually weaken Ukraine and drive up the cost of providing it with assistance from foreign partners. The international community should not pursue reactivation of the grain deal, which granted Russia de facto control of Ukrainian exports, and instead, the common objective should be to finally break the Russian blockade and effectively secure maritime trade across the Black Sea to Ukrainian ports.

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№211: The Fight for Justice: Ukraine’s Legal Steps in Its Defence Against Russian Aggression

Author(s): Szymon Zaręba / Language(s): English

Through proceedings before international courts, Ukraine seeks to raise the political cost of the Russian military action on its territory and exert diplomatic pressure to force a cessation of hostilities. It also wants to challenge the controversial legal arguments Russia is using to try to justify the 2022 invasion. While future verdicts may provide a basis for reparations, effective enforcement of rights and punishment of perpetrators of crimes committed on Ukrainian territory are likely to succeed only in the long term. Poland and like-minded states can support Ukraine’s legal position and further assist it in documenting crimes and prosecuting suspects.

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№181: The External Dimension of EU Migration Management: The Role of Aid

Author(s): Jolanta Szymańska,Patryk Kugiel,Henriette U. Erstad,Morten Bøås / Language(s): English

Aid is seen as a key EU instrument in addressing the root causes of migration, but it has not been decisive for the drastic reduction of irregular arrivals in Europe in recent years. Nevertheless, development assistance has become crucial leverage for the EU in persuading major transit countries to improve their border control. Although this “externalisation” of EU border management seems like a successful approach for now, it is not sustainable in the long term. The Union still needs to find better synergy between migration management and development policy that is not designed to stop migration but to manage and regulate it in a more mutually beneficial way

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№196: “Decoupling” in Chinese: Challenges for China’s Economy

Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English

In the long-term economic development plans adopted in March this year, the Chinese authorities emphasised the need to expand China’s internal potential to reduce its interdependence on the U.S. and other partners - a decoupling. However, they tend to take a conservative approach to challenges related to indebtedness, lack of innovation, consumption, and demographic changes. Instead of proposing market reforms, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is systematically increasing its control over the economy. In foreign cooperation, they find it important to maintain the level of exports in the context of China’s share in global value chains, as well as to acquire technology. For the EU, this means the necessity to implement new market-protection mechanisms, and in the longer term transfer production from China to the EU.

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№186: Migration-Development Nexus: The Case of the Rohingya in Bangladesh

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English

The expulsion of more than 700,000 Rohingya Muslims, a minority in Myanmar, to Bangladesh since August 2017 has caused one of the gravest humanitarian crises in the 21st century. It has also imposed a huge burden on one of the poorest and most densely populated countries in the world, which is also one of the major sources of international regular and irregular migrants globally. As observed in the similar large inflow of refugees to developing nations, this migration creates immense pressure on the host community and can lead to secondary migration to third countries. This paper attempts to assess whether one humanitarian crisis (the forced expulsion of the Rohingya) will lead to another migration crisis (out of Bangladesh), and what the international community is doing to address this duel challenge.

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№208: Digital Protectionism: Data Localisation

Author(s): Oskar Szydłowski / Language(s): English

In recent years, under the pretext of protecting national security and citizens’ privacy, states have introduced several protectionist measures concerning digital data. The main one is data localisation law, which requires data to be stored and processed in a specific country. In practice, it often serves authoritarian governments in gaining greater oversight of citizens through unrestricted access to and control over data. Furthermore, it has a negative impact on the global economy, especially international trade. The challenge remains to develop regulation at a global level in place of incompatible local regimes.

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Putin’s Address - a Year of War in a Besieged Fortress

Author(s): Agnieszka Legucka / Language(s): English

On 21 February, Vladimir Putin delivered an address to the Federal Assembly (the joint chamber of the Russian parliament). He repeated his accusations against NATO and the U.S. that they are responsible for the war in Ukraine. His speech was mainly aimed at an internal audience, as he was trying to set them up for a prolonged struggle for Russian victory in Ukraine and to discourage ordinary Russians from dealing with the West.

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What will be the Consequences of Prigozhin’s Death?

Author(s): Filip Bryjka,Agnieszka Legucka / Language(s): English

On 23 August, in Tver Oblast in Russia, Yevgeny Prigozhin and Dmitry Utkin were likely killed when their airplane crashed. The ends of the leaders of the Wagner Group should be linked to the unsuccessful rebellion carried out by Prigozhin two months ago. As a result of the attack, Vladimir Putin will temporarily strengthen his position, and Prigozhin’s assets will be transferred to the president’s trusted individuals.

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Russia Annexes Four Ukrainian Regions

Author(s): Szymon Zaręba / Language(s): English

Russia has completed the annexation of the Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions, which belong to Ukraine. Their annexation to Russia is an escalation of the conflict and a blatant violation of international law without legal consequences. Countries supporting Ukraine should underline the illegality of Russia’s actions to persuade developing states that have so far been ambivalent in their stance towards the war to side with Ukraine.

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UN Condemns Russia’s Annexation of Ukrainian Regions

Author(s): Rafał Tarnogórski / Language(s): English

On 10-12 October, another meeting of the 11th emergency special session of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) was held, this time on the illegal annexation of Ukraine’s Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions by the Russian Federation. By an overwhelming majority, the UNGA condemned the act, declaring it a violation of international law. The adopted resolution called on all UN member states and international organisations not to recognise Russia’s annexation acts and on Russia to withdraw from Ukraine and end its aggression.

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EU Launches Military Assistance Mission in Support of Ukraine

Author(s): Aleksandra KOZIOŁ / Language(s): English

On 17 October, foreign ministers from the Member States decided to launch an EU Military Assistance Mission in support of Ukraine. Its main goal will be to train Ukrainian soldiers in both the use of combat equipment and tactical operations. The mission’s deployment on EU territory will ensure the security of the training, while the coordination of the process on the EU side will provide an adequate response to the needs of Ukraine.

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Negotiations Resume to Resolve the Crisis in Venezuela

Author(s): Bartłomiej Znojek / Language(s): English

The meeting of representatives of the Venezuelan government and the opposition on 26 November in Mexico City marked a return to formal negotiations on overcoming the crisis in Venezuela. The parties agreed to establish a humanitarian fund and announced talks on presidential elections in 2024, among other issues. In response, the U.S. announced a conditional relief of sanctions on the Venezuelan oil sector. Further lifting of restrictions, depending on concessions from the regime of Nicolás Maduro, may be important for the global oil market, although only in a few years’ time.

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The Military Situation in Ukraine as of the Middle of September

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English

On 11 September, thanks to a several-day counter-offensive, the Armed Forces of Ukraine managed to take control of the Kharkiv region. Fighting is also going on in Kherson Oblast. These actions have raised the morale of the Ukrainian army and society and increased international interest in the war in Ukraine. The further success of Ukraine’s actions will depend on its ability to replenish reserves and increasing Western military support.

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In Defence of the Union’s Values and Economy - State of the Union Address

Author(s): Melchior Szczepanik / Language(s): English

In the annual address on the state of the Union, European Commission (EC) President Ursula von der Leyen announced the continuation of support for Ukraine. Though the EC strives to minimise the economic fallout of the Russian aggression, it complicates the implementation of the Union’s projects and is likely to worsen citizens’ living standards.

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New Government in Australia: More Continuation Than Change

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English

The parliamentary elections in Australia on 21 May were won by the opposition Labour Party, led by Anthony Albanese, who became the new prime minister. The end of the nine-year liberal-national Coalition is unlikely to mean, however, significant changes in foreign policy, including in relations with the U.S. or China. On the other hand, the new government’s more ambitious climate policy may strengthen Australia’s partnership with the European Union.

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