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Regional Consequences of the Taliban’s Takeover of Afghanistan

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English

The Taliban seizure of Kabul will affect the largest countries in the region in various ways. Pakistan is the main winner, while India finds itself in the worst situation. However, the biggest beneficiary could be China, which may gain access to Afghanistan’s minerals and implement its Belt and Road Initiative there. Most countries in the region believe that if the Taliban were to introduce a government approved by the majority of the population and control the entire territory, the new situation may bring more opportunities than threats. However, this requires the Taliban to restrict the activities of terrorist organisations and Afghanistan’s neighbours to recognise the new government.

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Politics prevails – Israel’s trade relations with the European Union

Author(s): Karolina Zielińska / Language(s): English

The European Union’s trade relations with Israel are asymmetrical, but the overall volume of their trade in goods and services has been growing rapidly. The EU is Israel’s top partner in this field, while Israel ranks outside the top 30 of the EU’s biggest partners; the EU has a positive trade balance with this country. This state of affairs has turned trade into a potential political instrument, but its assertive use by the EU with respect to the Palestinian issue has failed to bring about any change in Israel’s policy towards the occupied territories. Instead, Israel’s resistance to the EU’s policy on this issue has led to a freeze in the institutional development of trade relations, especially in the services and investment sectors. The EU and especially Israel could benefit from a further liberalisation in bilateral relations and its extension to their partners in the region, but political factors are hampering this process. Therefore, a breakthrough in the form of launching negotiations on an agreement to create a deep and comprehensive free trade area appears unlikely in the foreseeable future.

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The International Consequences of the Military Coup in Guinea

Author(s): Jędrzej Czerep / Language(s): English

On 5 September, the Guinean special forces overthrew President Alpha Condé, who recently entered his third term following controversial constitutional changes. This is the third coup in Africa this year. The uncertainty in the country, which is one of the world’s largest bauxite producers, has caused record increases in aluminium prices on world markets and concerns among importers, but mainly Russia and China.

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Italian Economic Recovery Plan

Author(s): Maciej Pawłowski / Language(s): English

Italy has started to rebuild its economy, which has fallen into deep recession because of the COVID-19 pandemic. The government wants to achieve this goal through infrastructure investments, export and tourism support, and temporary legalisation of stay and employment of migrants. Part of these activities will be financed with funds from the new EU budget. The government’s economic recovery plan also presents an opportunity to reform the country, which increases the potential of an agreement on the shape of the EU budget, the multiannual financial framework (MFF) 2021-2027.

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Ukraine’s Foreign Policy in President Zelensky’s First Year

Author(s): Maciej Zaniewicz / Language(s): English

The foreign policy of Ukraine during the presidency of Volodymyr Zelensky is characterised by the continuation of integration with NATO and the EU and the aim to end the conflict in Donbas. Compared to his predecessor, Petro Poroshenko, Zelensky takes a more pragmatic stance, confirmed by greater flexibility during talks with Russia. However, Ukraine’s concessions to Russia have not resulted in progress in resolving the conflict. Sectoral integration with the EU may, in turn, be delayed by the economic crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.

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Consequences of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Central Asia

Author(s): Arkadiusz Legieć / Language(s): English

The economic crisis in Central Asia resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic will degrade the security situation in the region. Among the consequences of the recession will be the intensification of anti-government protests and increased ethnic tensions, added migration pressure from the region and greater activity of terrorist organisations. By using Russia’s passivity towards the pandemic, China will seek to increase its influence in the sphere of security in Central Asia.

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Russia’s Arctic Policy

Author(s): Agnieszka Legucka / Language(s): English

Russia views the Arctic as a contested area with the U.S. and a place of competition with China. It regards any loss of its dominant position as the most important challenge in the Arctic region. To counteract it, Russia develops energy, military, and logistics infrastructure in the region. Although the role of transport in the Arctic, along the Northern Sea Route (NSR), is limited for now, the increased Russian military presence in the region is already a challenge for the security of NATO countries.

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Political and Economic Consequences of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Romania

Author(s): Jakub Pieńkowski / Language(s): English

On 16 June, a Romania’s “state of alarm” was prolonged for a month by the Ludovic Orban minority government. The pandemic has prevented his National Liberal Party (PNL) from holding early parliamentary elections, which, given the popularity of the formation, would be expected to allow it majority rule. The largest opposition force, the Social Democratic Party (PSD), could build a coalition in the current parliament but refuses to take power during the crisis. The government has provided temporary support for Romanian companies and announced an economic reconstruction programme that may incorporate aspects of the European Commission’s Next Generation EU initiative. The consequences of the pandemic will hamper Romania’s adoption of the euro.

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U.S. Enacts Sanctions to Stop ICC Proceedings

Author(s): Szymon Zaręba / Language(s): English

An executive order issued by U.S. President Donald Trump on 11 June imposes sanctions on those engaged in the activities of the International Criminal Court (ICC) directed against members of U.S. or allied personnel. It is a blow to international criminal justice that will impede or may even prevent the ICC from investigating crimes in Afghanistan and Palestine. The sanctions can also potentially affect Polish citizens or entities, creating tension in Polish-American relations.

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Clean Gas: Prospects of Hydrogen Energy Development in the EU

Author(s): Bartosz Bieliszczuk / Language(s): English

Hydrogen is a non-polluting gas, which, by replacing natural gas, would contribute to decarbonising the EU’s industry. The development of the hydrogen sector is related not only with climate policy but also with the industrial strategy and it will require, for example, forging regulations and making investments both in hydrogen production capacities and a transmission network. The above issues will be a challenge for Poland’s industrial and foreign policy.

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Chorwacja na drodze do przyjęcia euro

Author(s): Tomasz Żornaczuk / Language(s): English

W lipcu br. Chorwacja przystąpiła do mechanizmu kursów walutowych (ERM II) poprzedzającego członkostwo w strefie euro. Rząd, tak jak opozycja i większość opinii publicznej, widzi we wspólnej walucie więcej korzyści niż zagrożeń i wskazuje na możliwość jej wprowadzenia w 2023 r. Jednak, mimo braku przeszkód politycznych, prawdopodobnie nastąpi to później ze względu na problemy gospodarcze Chorwacji, przede wszystkim nadmierny dług publiczny, które pogłębiają się wskutek recesji spowodowanej pandemią COVID-19.

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Ukraine’s Response to the Political Crisis in Belarus

Author(s): Maciej Zaniewicz / Language(s): English

Alexander Lukashenka has so far been seen in Ukraine as a guarantor of Belarus’ independence from Russia. Therefore, the Ukrainian authorities initially avoided condemning the electoral fraud to avoid weakening the Belarusian president. That have since tightened their positions in response to Lukashenka’s accusation that Ukraine helped initiate the protests. However, Ukraine will not become actively involved in resolving the crisis in Belarus and will limit itself to reacting to Belarusian provocations and supporting EU policy towards that country.

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On the Training Areas of the Union State of Belarus and Russia

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English

In August and September, Russia and Belarus conducted intensive military exercises. In the case of Belarus, the organisation of some of them was dictated by the post-election crisis and the desire to demonstrate that its military is ready to respond to external threats. In the case of Russia, these were planned exercises, which functioned as another signal to neighbouring countries and NATO about the high capabilities of its armed forces. Most of the manoeuvres were based on scenarios aimed at Alliance countries.

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Parliamentary Elections in Myanmar: A Challenge for EU Policy

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English

The parliamentary elections in Myanmar on 8 November are likely to be won by the currently ruling National League for Democracy (NLD) led by Aung San Suu Kyi. However, the party will probably receive fewer votes than it did in 2015. A weaker electoral mandate and further isolation from Western countries will strengthen the military’s role, weaken democratisation, and will be conducive to increasing China’s influence. To prevent this, the EU may consider resuming cooperation with the civilian authorities despite accusations that it is persecuting the Rohingya minority. Greater engagement by the EU in Myanmar and closer cooperation with partners in Asia may give the Union more influence over the situation in that country than continued isolation of Aung San Suu Kyi.

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The Main Challenges for China’s Internal Situation after the First Phase of the Pandemic

Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English

China faces rising debt and unemployment problems worsened by the COVID-19 pandemic and U.S. restrictions. The economic difficulties spur dissatisfaction in society and the party apparatus. The solution to the problems includes increasing the share of the internal market in GDP growth. At the same time, the Chinese authorities are strengthening their rhetoric of rivalry with the West, which they blame for the difficulties. The central authorities also have tightened control over party officials. The anti-Western attitude along with the continual centralisation of power will make it impossible to compromise with the EU, for example, on increasing access to the Chinese market.

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The Role of the Economy in the U.S. Presidential Campaign

Author(s): Damian Wnukowski / Language(s): English

The COVID-19 pandemic has hit the U.S. economy hard, including causing high unemployment. This weakens the incumbent president, Donald Trump, and increases challenger Joe Biden's chances of victory. For the EU, a Biden presidency may mean, for example, an easing of trade disputes with the U.S. and cooperation on climate protection. However, whichever wins, Biden or Donald Trump, the U.S. will pose a challenge to the EU and European companies, which may find it difficult to compete with the high level of support of U.S. companies.

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Intra-Afghan Negotiations: Peace at the Cost of Democracy?

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English

The peace talks between the Afghan authorities and the Taliban, launched on 12 September, are now the best chance to end the 20-year civil war in Afghanistan. It is possible, however, that the price of peace will be that the Taliban assumes a decisive role in the country, and that the present democratic system of government is dismantled. The Taliban’s position in the negotiations is strengthened by plans to end the foreign military presence in Afghanistan, internal conflicts in the democratic camp in Kabul, and the Taliban’s own growing military leverage. The support of states and organisations for the future government of Afghanistan will be crucial to preserving at least some of the achievements of the last 20 years.

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Devolution in the UK and the Combined Challenges of Pandemic and Brexit

Author(s): Przemysław Biskup / Language(s): English

Brexit and the pandemic pose the two most important challenges for UK domestic politics today. While Brexit policy has been controlled by central-government institutions, the response to the pandemic has been formulated by a number of mutually independent central, national, and regional institutions. Consequently, the national and regional elections in May 2021 have been increasingly concentrating on devolved health and education policies as well as on partly decentralised economic and fiscal ones. In the pandemic context, these policies have become the most important catalysts for separatism in Britain in the last 30 years. In Scotland, the election may open the way to its independence and the destabilisation of Britain as an important ally of Poland.

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French Authorities Playing a Risky Game with Security

Author(s): Łukasz Maślanka / Language(s): English

The sense of insecurity among the French public amid the pandemic and terrorist threat improves the electoral chances of the right-wing opposition. As President Emmanuel Macron is seeking re-election in 2022, he has responded with laws aiming at defending the secularism of the state and boosting the role of law enforcement. Some of the proposed solutions, such as an interdiction on disseminating images of police officers, have provoked controversy. The government’s narrative may also have a negative impact on France’s foreign policy

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Estimating the Potential of China's Military Assistance to Russia

Author(s): Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski / Language(s): English

China’s military assistance to Russia would fill the majority of the latter’s needs and help it to regain the initiative in the war with Ukraine. Chinese support so far is based mainly on dual-use materials and items, but bilateral and multi-dimensional military cooperation between Russia and China will likely deepen. Ukraine’s partners might still influence and limit these areas of cooperation, which directly contribute to the continuation of war by Russia.

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