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CSD Policy Brief No. 68: Monitoring Radicalisation and Extremism

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Over the last decade, radicalisation and extremism have become issues of particular concern for Europe. New risks of Islamist and far-right radicalisation have impelled the introduction of policies, the effects of which are only now being evaluated. As radicalisation that risks escalating into violence is more amenable to prevention than repression, having the capacity to detect early warning signs and trace the spread of extremist activity over time is critical. This brief outlines a set of methodologies for monitoring the risk of radicalisation and the trends in extremism based on an integrated approach to the indicators being monitored and the institutional mechanism doing the monitoring. These methodologies are designed to equip stakeholders – both governmental and non-governmental – with a tool which fuses a broad range of informational inputs; it will enable informed formulation of prevention and counter-radicalisation policies.

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Bulgaria: National Energy Security Indicators and Policy Challenges (Country factsheet)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

The country factsheets present a critical review of the energy security governance in Bulgaria, Romania, Serbia and Ukraine, and map the main policy challenges faced by these countries in facilitating more transparent and data-driven decision making. The national and regional energy security of Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries has become a hot topic of discussion in the EU recently, focusing the attention of experts, policy makers, and the general public on ongoing and future energy projects but also on the features of energy governance in these countries. The fragile democratic traditions in the CEE countries, the existing networks of political protectionism and economic oligarchy, and the opaque business practices nurtured by corruption and links with organized crime, have been reinforced by the negative implications of Russian economic and geo-political influence. Russia has exploited its dominant position in the energy market and its long-term links with certain political and economic groups to shape political decisions across the region according to its own interests, but often to the detriment of the home country consumers. A major governance challenge for Bulgaria, Serbia and Ukraine is the lack of political agreement on a long-term national energy strategy with supporting financial instruments, which would lower the ad-hoc decision making, often related to suspicions of being influenced by private political and economic interests. Romania championed the group in terms of good energy governance due to the improved independence of the national energy regulator with the adoption of new legislation in 2012, as well as due to the continuing overall strong performance in the fight against corruption in the country. The governance of the state-owned energy enterprises in CEE is heavily influenced by political interference, distorting their investment independence and regulatory oversight. This is particularly visible in Bulgaria and Ukraine. The politically mandated downward pressure on electricity and gas prices in Bulgaria, Romania, and Serbia increases further the vulnerability of their energy sectors. The heavy dependence on a single source and route of gas supply is the major energy security risk for all countries. In Bulgaria and Ukraine, it is coupled with heavy dependence on oil import from the same country – Russia. While Romania, Bulgaria and Ukraine have undertaken diversification efforts, Serbia seems to favour the status quo, even at the expense of paying one of the highest wholesale prices of natural gas in Europe.

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Transit migration in Bulgaria

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

The Working Party on Information of the Vienna Group, at its meeting of 17 February 1993, discussed the Feasibility Study on the Establishment of a Migration Information System submitted by IOM and recommended that IOM should start implementing such a program. Two substantial migration flows to Western Europe cross Bulgaria. The first one is made up of migrants from the Middle East who intend to migrate to Central and Western Europe (above all Germany and Austria). The flow that previously passed through former Yugoslavia has now been largely re-oriented through Romania. A second flow comes from the Newly Independent States (NIS) and Romania, crossing Bulgaria and entering Greece.

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American-Bulgarian Economic Cooperation Forum: Expanding Investment and Trade - How Can Institutions Help?

Author(s): Stephan Kyutchukov,Daniela Bobeva,Svilen Parvulov,Stephan Hadjitodorov,Valeri Kostov / Language(s): English

The collection of papers presents recommendations to be considered by governmental and non-governmental organizations to improve their coordination and effectiveness in trade and investment promotion activities. The papers were presented at a forum, that brought together approximately 30 representatives of American and Bulgarian institutions involved in promoting bilateral trade and investment. It was organized at the initiative of the Bulgarian Ambassador to the United States — Mrs Snezhana Botousharova - with support from the Open Society Fund. The objective was two-fold: - to identify those factors that currently constrain American investment in Bulgaria and hinder trade expansion; and, - to define a framework of actions to be undertaken by the Bulgarian and American institutions to promote expanded bilateral economic cooperation.

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Насилието в училищата: предизвикателство за местните общности

Author(s): / Language(s): Bulgarian

All Europeans feel affected by the violence and its consequences. Everyday personal security is exposed to threats in different contexts and circumstances: at home, at school, at work, during sporting events and on the street. While violence and the fear of violence affect the everyday life of each, some groups - women, children and adults, as well as immigrants, refugees and some ethnic groups - are particularly vulnerable targets for the abusers.

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Критериите за конвергенция от Маастрихт в контекста на бъдещото присъединяване на България към Европейския съюз, януари 1996 г.

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): Bulgarian

In this analysis, only those aspects of the Treaty establishing the European Union and the practice of its implementation, which are directly related to the preparation for accession of the central and eastern European countries, in particular the Republic of Bulgaria, will be considered. Relations between the European Union and the countries of Central and Eastern Europe will be mainly in European agreements that have a direct bearing on the content and scope of the measures to be taken in preparation for accession. This work will be limited to the economic aspects of accession and will not affect the issues of political dialogue, the common foreign and security policy and cooperation in the area of home affairs and justice.

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Свободното движение на услуги в политиката на присъединяване на Република България към Европейския съюз: обща характеристика на проблема, август 1995

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): Bulgarian

The removal of barriers to the free movement of services between the European Union and the Republic of Bulgaria and the approximation of the Bulgarian legal base to that of the European Union in the given sphere is a crucial issue of the accession policy of the Republic of Bulgaria to the European Union. This is due, on the one hand, to the importance of this free movement as part of the European acquis, to the fundamental nature of the freedom of movement of services for the completion of the European Union's internal market, and hence to the European Union itself.

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CSD Policy Brief No. 58: GESTIONAREA TRANSPARENTĂ ŞI SECURITATEA ENERGETICĂ ÎN EUROPA CENTRALĂ ŞI DE EST

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): Romanian

The national and regional energy security of Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries has become a hot topic of discussion in the EU recently, focusing the attention of experts, policy makers, and the general public on ongoing and future energy projects but also on the features of energy governance in these countries. The interruption of gas supplies to Europe as a result of the Russian-Ukrainian pricing dispute in 2009, the continuing Russian-Ukrainian crisis after the annexation of Crimea, and the EU-Russia controversies regarding the South Stream pipeline project, as well as Gazprom’s non-compliance with the EU regulations in several anti-trust cases in the past few years are the major cornerstones that shape the CEE energy security framework and policy options as the region remains heavily dependent on Russian oil, gas, and nuclear technology. At the same time, the fragile democratic traditions in the CEE countries, the existing networks of political protectionism and economic oligarchy, and the opaque business practices nurtured by corruption and links with organized crime, have been reinforced by the negative implications of Russian economic and geo-political influence. Russia has exploited its dominant position in the energy market and its long-term links with certain political and economic groups to shape political decisions across the region according to its own interests, but often to the detriment of the home country consumers. The current review of energy security risks in four selected CEE countries, two energy poor – Bulgaria and Serbia, and two energy-resourced– Romania and Ukraine, assesses the factual situation per se and the transparency and accountability of energy policy governance in the region.

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HELSINŠKE SVESKE №12: Minorities in transition

Author(s): / Language(s): English

Referring to minority rights, we refer to an endeavor to establish equality. What minorities want is what all of us want. It is promotion and development of minority rights that indicate to aspirations to bring about social equality so that each individual has same rights as the other. Minority rights are not something one should be afraid of, they are no threat whatsoever to a society's indivisibility, its integrity. Minority rights are, as I've said, an endeavor to establish equality, for there is no indivisibility unless there is equality. We are anxious to safeguard our society, we care for law and order, and that what equality is about. Unfortunately, we have social inequality in terms of human rights. We have weak, divided societies that - politically unstable as they are - might threaten international piece and security. So, by encouraging minority rights we, in a way, encourage peace and security. It is the European Commission's generosity that made this conference possible. Therefore, let me remind you, that funds supporting activities such is this one are provided by citizens of the European Union. These public funds, therefore, reflect their aspirations and the wish to uphold minority rights in this region. This conference also reflects cooperation between the Helsinki Federation and the Helsinki Committee for Human Rights in Serbia. I take pride in working together with the Helsinki Committee in Serbia. I see it as a most reliable organization that overdid itself at extremely hard times of this country's history. I think the Committee in Serbia has always had the right stuff and deserves to be both commended on and recognized for its courage, integrity and dedication to key principles. This prompts me to tackle the issue of civil society. Usually, whenever there is a political overturn civil societies have to cope with a special tension. Such was the tension ensuing Czechoslovakian velvet revolution. As you know, new people came to power, the people that used to advocate human rights. So, once elected, they thought there was no longer need for the Chapter 77 or the Helsinki Charter. However, people from the Helsinki Committee said, "Stop for a moment, there is such need and very much so”. For, who should protect rights of those that were hurt? Who should watch out for the way the government and people in power behave? Who should keep an eye on the respect of human rights and the government's attitude towards international standards? There certainly are problems in Yugoslavia and Serbia. They are many, and can only be settled if there are intellectual and moral resources, through support and assistance of various non-governmental organizations that keep a sharp lookout at steps taken by the state and attitudes of people in power, and watch out for respect of commitments the state took upon itself by signing international documents. No state that lacks a strong civil society can plume itself when it comes to the situation in the domain of human and minority rights.

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HELSINŠKE SVESKE №12: Tranzicija i manjine

Author(s): / Language(s): Serbian

Referring to minority rights, we refer to an endeavor to establish equality. What minorities want is what all of us want. It is promotion and development of minority rights that indicate to aspirations to bring about social equality so that each individual has same rights as the other. Minority rights are not something one should be afraid of, they are no threat whatsoever to a society's indivisibility, its integrity. Minority rights are, as I've said, an endeavor to establish equality, for there is no indivisibility unless there is equality. We are anxious to safeguard our society, we care for law and order, and that what equality is about. Unfortunately, we have social inequality in terms of human rights. We have weak, divided societies that - politically unstable as they are - might threaten international piece and security. So, by encouraging minority rights we, in a way, encourage peace and security. It is the European Commission's generosity that made this conference possible. Therefore, let me remind you, that funds supporting activities such is this one are provided by citizens of the European Union. These public funds, therefore, reflect their aspirations and the wish to uphold minority rights in this region. This conference also reflects cooperation between the Helsinki Federation and the Helsinki Committee for Human Rights in Serbia. I take pride in working together with the Helsinki Committee in Serbia. I see it as a most reliable organization that overdid itself at extremely hard times of this country's history. I think the Committee in Serbia has always had the right stuff and deserves to be both commended on and recognized for its courage, integrity and dedication to key principles. This prompts me to tackle the issue of civil society. Usually, whenever there is a political overturn civil societies have to cope with a special tension. Such was the tension ensuing Czechoslovakian velvet revolution. As you know, new people came to power, the people that used to advocate human rights. So, once elected, they thought there was no longer need for the Chapter 77 or the Helsinki Charter. However, people from the Helsinki Committee said, "Stop for a moment, there is such need and very much so”. For, who should protect rights of those that were hurt? Who should watch out for the way the government and people in power behave? Who should keep an eye on the respect of human rights and the government's attitude towards international standards? There certainly are problems in Yugoslavia and Serbia. They are many, and can only be settled if there are intellectual and moral resources, through support and assistance of various non-governmental organizations that keep a sharp lookout at steps taken by the state and attitudes of people in power, and watch out for respect of commitments the state took upon itself by signing international documents. No state that lacks a strong civil society can plume itself when it comes to the situation in the domain of human and minority rights.

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY - RUSSIAN INFORMATION CAMPAIGN AGAINST UKRAINIAN STATE AND DEFENCE FORCE

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

The report was executed for the NATO StratCom COE by the Centre for Applied Research under the Estonian National Defence College. The objective of this research is to identify how the Russian media portrays the Ukrainian military and security structures, including the policies of the Kiev government and their ‘collaboration’ with the West. The research group looks at how messages disseminated in the media attempt to construct attitudes and advocate behaviours in parallel to political and military events on the ground in Ukraine. The research covers the period from 1 April until 31 December 2014 and analyses the following Russian media: Regnum, Komsomolskaya Pravda and TV Zvezda. These media are important because they target not only Russian internal audience but also the Russian-speaking communities in the former territory of the USSR. The researchers used standardised content analysis in accordance to a specially developed Coding Manual and enriched the findings with data from 25 structured interviews with Ukrainian representatives (media, political and military experts, as well as soldiers and officers involved in the military conflict). From December 2014 the Russian military has adopted a new doctrine that explicitly states that information superiority is essential to achieving victory on the physical battleground in the modern war. It is crucial for NATO to draw appropriate conclusions from the on-going conflict in Europe in order to further strengthen the unity of the alliance and avoid such conflict scenarios between Russia and NATO in the future. Russia’s information activities have played a significant role in the overall military operations carried out in the territory of East Ukraine since 2014. Information operations were used at all levels starting with the political level (against the state of Ukraine, state structures, politicians) up to the tactical level for justifying military actions initiated by pro-Russian forces. Information confrontation and a variety of psychological operations continue to play a substantial role in the current crisis in Ukraine. Russia uses various media channels to conduct its operations against Ukraine, including governmental and private TV channels (e.g. Pervyi Kanal, Rossija 1, NTV, Russia Today, LifeNews), radio (e.g. Radio Mayak), mobile phone operators (e.g. KyivStar), Internet sources (including online publications, e.g. Regnum, TV Zvezda, Кomsomolskaya Pravda, Itar Tass, RIA Novosti ) and social media networks (e.g. YouTube, Facebook, Vk.com, odnoklassniki.ru). Some Ukrainian sources hold pro-Russian attitudes and can also be used to spread disinformation (e.g. Vesti). The separatist People’s Republics of Donetsk and Luhansk have their own channels producing anti-Ukrainian propaganda (e.g. dnrnews.com, novorus.info). The current study has focused on the media channels that represent the Russian mainstream—Komsomolskaya Pravda, TV Zvezda, Regnum. These mass media channels are generally critical against the Ukrainian government and armed forces, but do not offer a critical view of the Russian government; they justify Russian policy in Ukraine and see the Ukrainian crisis as a battlefield between Russia and West, referring to the clash of civilisations with the West (primarily the US and NATO, but also the European Union) allegedly intending to advance its sphere of influence towards Russian borders.

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Intervjui (2004-2005)

Author(s): Vladimir Goati,Drinka Gojković,Bogoljub Milosavljević,Nataša Mrvić-Petrović,Vehid Šehić,Nemanja Nenadić,Ivan Ahel,Vera Ranković,Dragica Vujadinović,Desimir Tošić,Latinka Perović,Goran Cetinić,Nikola Samardžić,Miroslav Hadžić,Zagorka Golubović,Jelica Minić,Dubravka Stojanović,Jovica Trkulja,Norbert Mappes-Niediek,Andrej Mitrović,Radmila Radić,Aleksandar Stevanović,Srećko Mihailović,Todor Kuljić,Alexandra Milenov,Milica Delević-Đilas,Janja Beč-Neumann,Marko Kovačević,Ljubinka Trgovčević,Nenad Prokić,Sonja Biserko,Srđa Popović,Stojan Stamenković,Nataša Kandić ,Mirjana Miočinović,Zoran Stojiljković,Miroslav Prokopijević,Srđan Bogosavljević,Tünde Kovacs-Cerović,Snježana Milivojević,Vladimir V. Vodinelić,Saša Đogović,Čedomir Čupić,Milan Podunavac,Svetlana Lukić,Aleksandar Vučo,Pavle Rak,Olga Popović-Obradović,Andrej Nosov,Desanka Radunović,Mladen Lazić,Ranko Bugarski,Nada Korać,Biserka Rajčić,Dragana Nikolić-Solomon,Biljana Kovačević-Vučo,Milan Vukomanović,Nebojša Bugarinović,Stevan Lilić,Tamara Lukšić-Orlandić,Milorad Timotić,Lazar Stojanović,Aleksandar Baucal,Jelena Milić,Nenad Havelka,Božidar Jakšić,James Lyon,Bogdan Ivanišević ,Sonja Liht,Vuk Stambolović,Ljubiša Rajić,Vesna Rakić-Vodinelić,Richard Daničić,Vesna Petrović,Saša Gajin,Siniša Šikman,Ivan Jovanović,Dragoljub Todorović,Teofil Pančić,Vesna Nikolić-Ristanović,Branislav Čanak,Petar Jevremović,Verica Barać,Mirko Ilić,Gordana Matković,Goran Miletić,Srbijanka Turajlić,Milena Jauković,Ana Miljanić,Ivan Vejvoda,Zorica Trifunović,Dušanka Gačić-Bradić,Dragan Popadić,Dušan Ilija Bjelić,Svetlana Logar,Tanja Mandić-Rigonat,Obrad Savić,Marijana Toma,Miroslav Jovanović,Goran Svilanović,Želimir Bojović / Language(s): Bosnian,Croatian,Serbian Publication Year: 0

Interviews by Želimir Bojević, with: 1. Goati, Vladimir 2. Gojković, Drinka 3. Milosavljević, Bogoljub 4. Mrvić-Petrović, Nataša 5. Šehić, Vehid 6. Nenadić, Nemanja 7. Ahel, Ivan 8. Ranković, Vera 9. Vujadinović, Dragica 10. Tošić, Desimir 11. Perović, Latinka 12. Cetinić, Goran 13. Samardžić, Nikola 14. Hadžić, Miroslav 15. Golubović, Zagorka 16. Minić, Jelica 17. Stojanović, Dubravka 18. Trkulja, Jovica 19. Mappes-Niediek, Norbert 20. Mitrović, Andrej 21. Radić, Radmila 22. Stevanović, Aleksandar 23. Mihailović, Srećko 24. Kuljić, Todor 25. Milenov, Alexandra 26. Delević-Đilas, Milica 27. Beč-Neumann, Janja 28. Kovačević, Marko 29. Trgovčević, Ljubinka 30. Prokić, Nenad 31. Biserko, Sonja 32. Popović, Srđa 33. Stamenković, Stojan 34. Kandić , Nataša 35. Miočinović, Mirjana 36. Stojiljković, Zoran 37. Prokopijević, Miroslav 38. Bogosavljević, Srđan 39. Kovacs-Cerović, Tünde 40. Milivojević, Snježana 41. Vodinelić, Vladimir V. 42. Đogović, Saša 43. Čupić, Čedomir 44. Podunavac, Milan 45. Lukić, Svetlana 46. Vučo, Aleksandar 47. Rak, Pavle 48. Popović-Obradović, Olga 49. Nosov, Andrej 50. Radunović, Desanka 51. Lazić, Mladen 52. Bugarski, Ranko 53. Korać, Nada 54. Rajčić, Biserka 55. Nikolić-Solomon, Dragana 56. Kovačević-Vučo, Biljana 57. Vukomanović, Milan 58. Bugarinović, Nebojša 59. Lilić, Stevan 60. Lukšić-Orlandić, Tamara 61. Timotić, Milorad 62. Stojanović, Lazar 63. Baucal, Aleksandar 64. Milić, Jelena 65. Havelka, Nenad 66. Jakšić, Božidar 67. Lyon, James 68. Ivanišević , Bogdan 69. Licht, Sonja 70. Stambolović, Vuk 71. Rajić, Ljubiša 72. Rakić-Vodinelić, Vesna 73. Daničić, Richard 74. Petrović, Vesna 75. Gajin, Saša 76. Šikman, Siniša 77. Jovanović, Ivan 78. Todorović, Dragoljub 79. Pančić, Teofil 80. Nikolić-Ristanović, Vesna 81. Čanak, Branislav 82. Jevremović, Petar 83. Barać, Verica 84. Ilić, Mirko 85. Matković, Gordana 86. Miletić, Goran 87. Turajlić, Srbijanka 88. Jauković, Milena 89. Miljanić, Ana 90. Vejvoda, Ivan 91. Trifunović, Zorica 92. Gačić-Bradić, Dušanka 93. Popadić, Dragan 94. Bjelić, Dušan Ilija 95. Logar, Svetlana 96. Mandić-Rigonat, Tanja 97. Savić, Obrad 98. Toma, Marijana 99. Jovanović, Miroslav 100. Svilanović, Goran

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Scénáře světové politiky 2012–2013

Author(s): Tomáš Weiss,Vít Střítecký,Lucia Najšlová,Petr Kratochvíl,Michal Kořan,Nik Hynek,Vladimír Handl,Rudolf Fürst,Jan Eichler,Mats Braun,Vít Beneš / Language(s): Czech

The document presents a collection of speculative scenarios for world politics in 2012-2013, employing a scenario-building method to enrich foreign policy debate. It discusses the potential impacts of various global and regional developments on the Czech Republic and the EU, including fiscal pacts, the role of Germany in the Eurozone, Central European dynamics, EU relations with Turkey and China, the aftermath of American elections, the Iranian crisis, the situation in Afghanistan, the Asia-Pacific region, and Russian elections. The scenarios are not precise forecasts but internally consistent hypotheses that connect actors with future effects, aiming to capture key dynamics and possible consequences of otherwise conceivable actions.

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World Politics: Scenarios 2012–2013

Author(s): Vít Beneš,Mitchell Belfer,Mats Braun,Jan Eichler,Rudolf Fürst,Vladimír Handl,Nik Hynek,Michal Kořan,Petr Kratochvíl,Lucia Najšlová,Vít Střítecký,Tomáš Weiss / Language(s): English

Scenario building was first introduced in the U.S. security community in the 1950s. In RAND projects, “scenarios” (with the term consciously borrowed from the Holywood film industry to emphasize their storytelling character) evolved into a sophisticated auxiliary means of political decision-making. The method was thus born from the spirit of the Cold War, yet soon it found its way into the private sector, where it has served to manage corporate risk. More recently, scenarios witnessed a rise in popularity also in the think tank community as outcomes relevant for policy makers due to their potential to bridge theoretical knowledge with the needs of political practice (early warning potential) and as a means of broadening and deepening the space for public debate about global politics.

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Balkan Defence Monitor 2024

Author(s): Helena Ivanov / Language(s): Serbian

We proudly present you the ‘BSC Trends: Reconstructing the Global (Dis)Order,’ the companion publication to the Belgrade Security Conference 2023, held in Belgrade from October 11th to 13th, 2023. This publication aims to shed light on and discuss, following the style of BSC discussions, the most significant global, regional, and local events, phenomena, and developments that have marked this year. These topics were part of the panel discussions in this year’s BSC conference program.

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Balkan Defence Monitor 2023

Author(s): Not Specified Author / Language(s): English

The main policy purpose of the Balkan Defence Monitor remains the same as in the last year. In recent years, the local elites have misused the lack of transparency related to defence policies in the Western Balkans, turning the military into a tool of domestic political promotion rather than a public good. This model of behaviour did not cause an armed conflict, and it is unlikely that it will do so in the future. However, it has poisoned the already fractious political ties between the countries of the region and fostered an atmosphere of distrust. To counter these negative occurrences, data on the defence sector needs to be made accessible to the citizens of Western Balkan countries and the international community. The ongoing war in Ukraine and the destabilisation of the European security environment make such an approach even more relevant.

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A Quasi-Arms Race: Serbia and Croatia

Author(s): Marija Ignjatijević,Vuk Vuksanović / Language(s): English

In the last six years, Serbia and Croatia have been upgrading their military arsenals, leading to the conclusion that the two countries are spearheading a new arms race in the Western Balkans. This narrative is misleading as the strategic environment makes inter-state war unlikely and the process is actually about Serbia and Croatia replacing old equipment from the Yugoslav days. However, the two countries use arms procurement as leverage in their respective foreign policies and tools of domestic promotion for their rulling elites. The return of hostility is highly unlikely, but there is a political threat of cementing an atmosphere of mistrust in the region.

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