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The dispute over Nord Stream 2: the stances and the outlook

Author(s): Ryszarda Formuszewicz,Szymon Kardaś,Agata Loskot-Strachota / Language(s): English

Russian ships resumed laying the Nord Stream 2 (NS2) gas pipeline on the Baltic Sea bed in February this year. Russia’s goal is to complete the project and put it into operation as soon as possible. This coincided with media reports that representatives of Germany and the new US administration had been searching for compromise arrangements to determine the conditions for construction to be completed and operation to commence. These would include options for a moratorium on launching it but, above all, the creation of guarantees to maintain the limited transit of Russian gas through Ukraine or a ‘snap back’ mechanism enabling shutting off/limiting flows via NS2 in the event of problems with supplies or transit through Ukrainian territory. Berlin hopes to agree on the terms on which the US will tolerate the gas pipeline, or will at least play for time so that construction can be completed while the talks are underway and the certification necessary for its launch can be obtained. It is unclear what actions the Joe Biden administration will take regarding this issue. On the one hand, it has criticized the project but on the other, it has not imposed any sanctions that could stop its implementation as yet (19 March 2021) and it is striving to improve relations with Germany.

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Wrestling in Greenland. Denmark, the United States and China in the land of ice

Author(s): Piotr Szymański / Language(s): English

International interest in Greenland has been growing for several years. This trend is a result of the increasing global competition between the US, China and Russia (including in the Arctic)and the acceleration of climate change, which is opening the region up to commercial and military activity. The independence aspirations of the island’s inhabitants are also of note in this context. Copenhagen seeks to maintain sovereignty over Greenland because it strengthens Denmark’s significance in the world and provides access to the Arctic. The US has increased its visibility in Greenland due to Chinese investments, and has even considered buying it. For Beijing, the island represents a potential area of economic expansion, providing a valid argument for China to become a major player in the Arctic. This growing interest pleases Greenlanders, who see balancing between Denmark, the US and China as an opportunity for new investments and building the economic foundations of sovereignty.

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The (pan-)Turkic Caucasus. The Baku-Ankara alliance and its regional importance

Author(s): Mateusz Chudziak,Wojciech Górecki / Language(s): English

The Nagorno-Karabakh war of autumn 2020 and the military parade organized in Baku after its end, which was jointly hosted by the presidents of Azerbaijan and Turkey, Ilham Aliyev and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, highlighted the potential of the alliance between both countries. The close ties between Baku and Ankara result from a strategic choice made almost three decades ago. The diverse activities they have undertaken to strengthen their cooperation have varied in intensity over that period, but their overall direction has remained unchanged. As a result, Azerbaijan has gradually distanced itself from Russia, and through its cooperation with Turkey, it has moved closer (albeit mainly economically) to the West. Ankara, on the other hand, has strengthened its position in the South Caucasus. This has led to the formation of an Ankara-Bakuaxis, which presents a challenge to Moscow because it limits Russian influence in the region. However, the Turkic duo has been taking care not to antagonize Russia directly; one expression of this approach is their acceptance of Moscow’s key role in resolving the Karabakh conflict.

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Seeking an additional reassurance. The EU and France in Estonia’s security policy

Author(s): Piotr Szymański / Language(s): English

Over the last few years, Tallinn has been increasingly involved in military cooperation in the EU and with France. To date, Estonia is the only country on NATO’s eastern flank to join the French-led European Intervention Initiative. The country is developing the European pillar of its security policy with a view to diversifying military cooperation, which has centred primarily around the US and UK. This is due to Estonia’s concerns about the future of their military posture in Europe. However, due to the leading role of the US and UK in NATO’s deterrence and defence on the eastern flank, working with the two countries will continue to be Estonia’s security policy priority.

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The Israeli Political Scene and the Next Parliamentary Elections

Author(s): Michał Wojnarowicz / Language(s): English

The continuing crisis in government has led to the dissolution of the Knesset and early parliamentary elections in Israel, the fourth in the last two years. Polls do not reveal any possible coalition variants, which increases the possibility for further elections in autumn. This scenario favours Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, whose position is strengthened by the effective vaccination campaign against COVID-19 and the normalisation of relations with Gulf states.

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The Upcoming Scottish Parliamentary Elections and the Challenges of Brexit and the Pandemic

Author(s): Przemysław Biskup / Language(s): English

The projected victory of the Scottish National Party (SNP) in the upcoming national parliamentary elections heralds the second independence referendum in a decade. The divergent and sometimes mutually excluding policies of Brexit and pandemic implemented by Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Conservative UK government and the SNP’s Scottish government under the leadership of Nicola Sturgeon are the key contexts for the coming election campaign. After the signing of the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) with the EU on 24 December 2020 and the commencement of mass coronavirus vaccinations, Johnson’s priority is to reintegrate the British union. For Poland, it is essential that the United Kingdom maintains political stability and credibility as an ally.

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Russia’s Peacekeeping Operation in Nagorno-Karabakh: Goals and Challenges

Author(s): Agnieszka Legucka / Language(s): English

During a meeting in Moscow on 11 January, the representatives of Russia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan discussed the situation after the ceasefire in the Nagorno-Karabakh (NK) conflict. The peacekeeping force of the Russian Federation located in NK remains the guarantor of the cessation of the fighting. The practice of Russian conciliation so far differs from that of UN peacekeeping operations and strengthens Russia’s military position in the region. A challenge for it will be Turkey’s growing ambitions in the South Caucasus, as well as the lack of an agreed status for NK, which in the future may lead to the resumption of military operations in this territory.

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Vaccine Passports and Freedom of Movement in the EU

Author(s): Jolanta Szymańska / Language(s): English

Together with the beginning of the COVID-19 vaccination process in the European Union, the preparations of a common Community-wide immunity certificate began. The guidelines adopted at the end of January cover the medical requirements for this health certificate, however, many countries would like to extend their use for travel within the EU/Schengen area. This could contribute to the revival of tourism in Europe, although it is difficult to implement without affecting the freedom of movement.

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Signs of Change on the Hungarian Political Scene a Year Before Parliamentary Elections

Author(s): Veronika Jóźwiak / Language(s): English

For the first time in 12 years, the ruling Fidesz and the opposition have even chances of winning the parliamentary elections in April 2022. Unification of the opposition gives it strength, however, the institutional and financial advantages of the ruling party will be difficult to overcome. The government may be weakened by the effects of the pandemic and the loss of membership in the European People’s Party (EPP). The authorities aim to get funds from the new EU budget before the elections. As a partnership with the European extreme right will not contribute to this goal, the formation of a new grouping in the European Parliament (EP) by Prime Minister Viktor Orbán is unlikely for now.

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Rosyjska demonstracja siły na granicy z Ukrainą i na okupowanym Krymie

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): Polish

Organizując w kwietniu br. ćwiczenia wojskowe i sygnalizując gotowość zaatakowania Ukrainy, Rosja chciała wymusić na niej powrót do rozmów w ramach procesu normandzkiego, a jednocześnie sprawdzić reakcję państw zachodnich, zwłaszcza USA. W wymiarze militarnym był to ważny element testu stanu gotowości bojowej rosyjskich sił zbrojnych na zachodnim kierunku strategicznym, czego kolejną odsłoną będą wrześniowe ćwiczenia „Zachód”. Mimo wycofania większości rosyjskich jednostek do miejsc stałej dyslokacji w regionie utrzyma się napięta sytuacja.

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The Palestinian Authority after the Cancellation of Elections

Author(s): Michał Wojnarowicz / Language(s): English

The cancellation of the 22 May parliamentary elections in the Palestinian Authority (PA) by President Mahmoud Abbas deepens the Palestinian political crisis and contributed to the escalation between Hamas and Israel. The decision is a result of internal disputes in the PA leadership and insufficient external support, primarily from the U.S. The lack of elections will preserve the current political turmoil in the PA and weaken Palestinian relations with Israel.

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The Difficult Beginnings of the European Public Prosecutor’s Office

Author(s): Stefania Kolarz / Language(s): English

The smooth functioning of the European Public Prosecutor’s Office (EPPO) is important to fill the gap in the protection of EU finances and to strengthen cooperation between national prosecutors’ offices. Its activities will enable the unprecedented involvement of the EU in domestic proceedings related to violations of the EU budget, including by bringing such violations and indictments before the courts of the Member States. However, the effectiveness of the EPPO will depend on the introduction of appropriate regulations and active cooperation with its officers at the national level. Along with only moderate enthusiasm of many Member States, the EPPO will from the outset face the difficult task of proving the added value of guiding its officials to national systems.

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EU Sanctions for Disinformation Campaigns: Prospects and Limits

Author(s): Elżbieta Kaca / Language(s): English

The EU has faced a growing number of foreign disinformation operations, mainly instigated by Russia and China. The European Commission (EC) is considering a sanctions system in response to such attacks. Its would, however, be limited by technical difficulties in detecting the sources of such operations and Member States’ divergent views as to the scale of retaliation. From Poland’s perspective as a country supportive of using sanctions in EU external relations, such a solution would strengthen the EU’s response to Russian and Chinese hostile actions.

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The Significance of the Energy Charter Treaty and Perspective for Reform

Author(s): Bartosz Bieliszczuk,Szymon Zaręba / Language(s): English

The Energy Charter Treaty (ECT) allows energy companies to protect their foreign investments in fossil fuels, among others. It is controversial, though, because the treaty makes it difficult for its parties to implement ambitious climate policy and decarbonise their economies. The current debate on reforming the ECT creates an opportunity to amend the treaty to better fit the EU’s - and Poland’s - needs. However, if the negotiations are delayed further, it would be advisable to abandon the treaty.

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Not only Donbas: Ukraine in German Foreign Policy

Author(s): Adam S. Czartoryski,Lidia Gibadło / Language(s): English

Since 2014, the priority of Germany’s policy towards Ukraine has remained to stabilise the situation in its eastern regions. At the same time, Ukraine’s importance has gone beyond the conflict in the Donbas: it is increasingly becoming an element of the realisation of Germany’s European and global interests and a target of German investments, especially in the energy sector. This evolution will be favoured by a change of the ruling coalition in Germany, which may occur after the Bundestag elections.

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EU Proposes Artificial Intelligence Regulation

Author(s): Stefania Kolarz,Oskar Szydłowski / Language(s): English

The proposed regulation of artificial intelligence (AI) on the EU market is primarily intended to protect fundamental rights and values. As the first regulation of this type in the world, it may set the standard. However, the new requirements in practice might hinder the access of foreign entities to the internal market and reduce the competitiveness of EU businesses.

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Schengen After the Crises: New Strategy and Challenges

Author(s): Jolanta Szymańska / Language(s): English

After the shocks caused by the migration-management crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic, the European Commission (EC) initiated reforms in Schengen. The new strategy aims at rebuilding trust between states and gradually lifting border restrictions. This process will be hampered by the continued public health threat, as well as the deadlock in the discussion on reform of migration policy, in particular the asylum system.

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A Technological Arms Race: Chip Manufacturing

Author(s): Oskar Szydłowski / Language(s): English

The supply gap in the chip market caused by the COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the chips’ growing role in the global economy, as well as in international relations. Countries where chipmakers are headquartered are restricting exports of this good, and the competition for access to these products has opened a new phase in the technology race between China and the U.S. Currently, the U.S. is emerging victorious, significantly limiting China’s ability to modernise. The European Union plans to cooperate with Taiwan and the U.S. on chip supplies and is working on production technology.

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The Biden Administration’s Vaccine Diplomacy

Author(s): Andrzej Dąbrowski / Language(s): English

The United States has begun redistributing procured SARS-CoV-2 vaccines to countries affected by a shortage of doses. The U.S. joined the international COVAX initiative and declared it would provide 500 million doses to it by the end of 2022. The goal of U.S. diplomacy is to improve the country’s image on the international stage and compete with China, which uses vaccines to strengthen its relations with African and Latin American countries.

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EU Increasing Its Commitment to the Protection of Cultural Heritage in Conflicts

Author(s): Aleksandra KOZIOŁ / Language(s): English

In June, the Council of the EU endorsed the “Concept on Cultural Heritage in Conflicts and Crises”, developed by the European External Action Service (EEAS). It sets specific political goals for the Union to strengthen its soft power and contribute to building lasting peace in conflict-affected areas. However, its implementation will require coherence in the Union’s external action as well as the adoption of specific guidelines for the protection of cultural heritage during EU civilian missions and operations.

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