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Poziom zadłużenia a wzrost gospodarczy i sytuacja ekonomiczna w nowych krajach członkowskich (UE-10) po akcesji do Unii Europejskiej

Author(s): Edward Molendowski,Piotr Stanek / Language(s): Polish Publication Year: 0

Celem niniejszego artykułu jest prezentacja wyników analizy sytuacji gospodarczej w poszczególnych krajach UE-10 i ocena wpływu poziomu ich zadłużenia na wzrost gospodarczy. Analiza ta obejmuje swym zakresem cały okres ich członkostwa w Unii Europejskiej, tj. lata 2004–2013, uwzględniając zarówno lata wysokiego wzrostu sprzed kryzysu (lata 2004–2008), jak i okres zjawisk kryzysowych (lata 2009–2013). Hipotezę badawczą sformułowano następująco: nadmierny poziom zadłużenia w niektórych krajach wpływa negatywnie na osiągane tempo wzrostu produktu krajowego brutto (PKB). Konstrukcja artykułu została podporządkowana weryﬁkacji przyjętej hipotezy. W jego części pierwszej zaprezentowano krótki przegląd literatury dotyczącej związków między poziomem zadłużenia a wzrostem gospodarczym. W części drugiej przedstawiono sytuację gospodarczą w krajach UE-10 w okresie 2004–2014. Jest to jednocześnie niezbędny opis zmiennych wykorzystanych w badaniach empirycznych części trzeciej, w której z kolei za pomocą analizy korelacji oraz regresji panelowej wykazano zależności między poziomem zadłużenia i innymi podstawowymi wielkościami makroekonomicznymi a wzrostem gospodarczym. Artykuł kończą wnioski.

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Perspektywy rozwoju relacji handlowych Wielkiej Brytanii w kontekście Brexitu

Author(s): Justyna Sikorska / Language(s): English,Polish Publication Year: 0

Celem niniejszego rozdziału jest próba wskazania scenariuszy rozwoju relacji handlowych Wielkiej Brytanii po opuszczeniu przez nią Unii Europejskiej oraz ocena możliwości ich realizacji. Kluczowym zadaniem dla Zjednoczonego Królestwa będzie zawarcie porozumienia z samą UE. Jeżeli zapadnie decyzja o opuszczeniu unii celnej, kraj ten stanie w obliczu dużego wyzwania, jakim będzie uregulowanie istotnych z punktu widzenia interesów państwa stosunków z niemalże całym światem. Poza kształtem przyszłych relacji z UE analizie zostały poddane różne projekty uregulowania stosunków handlowych z krajami trzecimi. W rekomendacjach dotyczących priorytetów polityki handlowej można wyróżnić kilka najczęściej wymienianych kierunków. Są to takie kraje, jak: Kanada, Australia, Indie, Korea Południowa, Izrael czy Nowa Zelandia. Rząd brytyjski zapowiada również utrzymanie dotychczasowych preferencji dla krajów najsłabiej rozwiniętych.

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Postęp techniczny w krajach OECD. Próba pomiaru

Author(s): Kamil Homski / Language(s): English,Polish Publication Year: 0

Postęp techniczny jest przedmiotem wielu badań teoretycznych oraz empirycznych. Definiowany był na różne sposoby, jednak większość z proponowanych definicji była albo niepełna, albo trudna do zoperacjonalizowania. W artykule podjęta została próba autorskiego pomiaru postępu technicznego w krajach OECD w latach 2006–2015 na podstawie badań statystycznych. Uzyskane wyniki okazały się niezgodne z przyjętą hipotezą badawczą i wskazały, że postęp techniczny w krajach OECD był większy w krajach słabiej rozwiniętych, a mniejszy w krajach wysoko rozwiniętych.

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Reżimy Nowego START i INF w centrum uwagi w 2018 r.

Author(s): Marek Tabor / Language(s): Polish Publication Year: 0

In 2018, the world’s arms control architecture teetered on the brink of collapse.The paper presents some examples of this process: 1. the United States withdrewfrom the Iran nuclear deal (P5 + 1 – Iran); 2. the summit in Singapore was important,but negotiations between the United States and North Korea over Pyongyang’snuclear programme and denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula stalled; 3. the newSTART was correctly implemented but its future is uncertain; 4. the US threatenedto withdraw from the INF.

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Wyzwania dla globalnego zarządzania gospodarczego 10 lat po kryzysie finansowym 2007–2008

Author(s): Karina Jędrzejowska,Karina Jędrzejowska,Anna Wróbel / Language(s): Polish Publication Year: 0

The paper presents an overview of the changes in the global economy since 2017.Consecutive sections deal with the analysis of economic indicators and challengesfaced by Global Economic Governance in its particular dimensions: trade, finance,and development. In spite of a moderately positive condition of the global economyin the last two years, the current situation cannot be considered as fully stable. Thisapplies both to economic output and the future of the global economic order. Inevery dimension of Global Economic Governance, there is a significant rift betweenthe efforts to promote multilateral solutions and individual actions taken by somestates. In case of the global trade system, the major concern constitute the risingprotectionism and the threat of trade conflicts, as well as the growing dysfunctionof the World Trade Organization (WTO). The recurring issue for global financialsystem remains its reform. In terms of global development cooperation, progresshas been made towards eliminating poverty, yet simultaneously income inequalitiesare on the rise. Moreover, in spite of the ongoing reform of development finance,the current system is incapable of meeting the needs of sustainable development andinclusive growth.

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Unia Europejska – próba przedolimpijska

Author(s): Paweł J. Borkowski / Language(s): Polish Publication Year: 0

2018 was a year of substantial internal reconfigurations in the EU. In the article,the author focuses on three processes with the biggest potential for change. There isgrowing awareness of practical difficulties of leaving the EU in an orderly fashion,especially in light of the severe political crisis in Great Britain. Chancellor AngelaMerkel declared her plan to leave (in an orderly way) and the opinion polls beforethe European Parliament elections suggest there is a possibility of a relative successof Eurosceptic parties, which would result in anything but order. The power gamewithin the EU starts with the May 2019 elections and it will take up a better part ofthe year. The consequences of 2018 political decisions are still unknown – growinguncertainty being the only certain factor.

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40-lecie reform w Chinach i nawiązania stosunków dyplomatycznych USA–Chiny

Author(s): Edward Haliżak / Language(s): Polish Publication Year: 0

The aim of this article is to analyze international relations in the Asia-Pacific regionfrom the historical perspective of the 40th anniversary of the economic reformin China and the establishment of diplomatic US-China relations. China’s successfulreform programme and US-China economic cooperation have helped to transformthis country into a superpower and, as a result, multilateralism in the region hasbeen replaced by new US-China bipolar structure. 2018 was the year regional actorsgrew accustomed to this new strategic environment.

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Handel produktami high-tech - Unia Europejska na tle wybranych krajów

Author(s): Małgorzata Fronczek / Language(s): Polish Publication Year: 0

W literaturze przedmiotu mówi się obecnie o nowym etapie w rozwoju gospodarki światowej, tj. gospodarce opartej na wiedzy, w której ogromne znaczenie ma rozwój nowoczesnych technologii. Wydaje się, że efektem tego kierunku rozwoju powinna być zmiana struktury towarowej handlu międzynarodowego, polegająca na wzroście obrotów i udziału w nim produktów zaawansowanych technologicznie. Konkurowanie na tym rynku jest niewątpliwie sporym wyzwaniem dla poszczególnych państw. Warto zatem przyjrzeć się, jaki jest udział produktów high-tech w handlu zagranicznym Unii Europejskiej oraz (dla porównania) innych wybranych krajów, a także jak ten udział zmieniał się w okresie ostatnich czternastu lat.

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Power politics w Unii Europejskiej w warunkach zmiany ładu międzynarodowego

Author(s): Tomasz Grzegorz Grosse / Language(s): Polish Publication Year: 0

After the end of the Cold War, the international order began its transition, bothon a global and a European scale. As a consequence of these changes and underthe influence of a series of crises in the EU, two opposing tendencies have beenstrengthened. On the one hand, intensified questioning of the current directions ofintegration, and on the other, the desire to reinforce the management in the EU bythe European core, represented primarily by France and Germany. The aim of thearticle is to show power politics in the EU on the example of internal market changeshappening at a time of transition of the international order.

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2018: Doing well, but no plan B

Author(s): Martin Vlachynský / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

The year 2018 started with a dip and ended with a dip. While the first encouraged investors to buy, the second sowed fear. With fiscal difficulties in France and Italy, Brexit plans going round in circles and a headstrong president in the US, recession became a popular topic of discussion in late 2018. Meanwhile, Slovakia’s economic policy suggested there was little to worry about in the future.

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Slovak security and defense policy in 2018

Author(s): Tomáš Čižik / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

The year 2018 was not a calm one in world affairs. The post-Cold War international order is becoming more unstable, potentially threatening global peace and security, perhaps irreversibly. Geopolitics has become relevant once again, having adopted a new face. The great powers now compete and use hybrid warfare and political interference to achieve their political goals.

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Slovak development cooperation in 2018

Author(s): Jakub Šimek / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

Slovak development cooperation is intended to improve the prosperity of the global community, and ensure that humanity has a positive impact on our planet in the long term. According to IATI data, between 2012 and 2017 Slovakia engaged in 1,800 activities as part of its official development assistance (ODA). That is an average of 300 activities or projects per year. In 2017 Slovakia followed through on 484 financial commitments, according to SlovakDev. These included the provision of multilateral and bilateral ODA, as well as covering the administration costs of 18 different actors providing Slovak ODA. This analysis aims to assess the current trends in development cooperation and opportunities to improve the effectiveness of Slovak ODA in terms of social impact value, learning value, and the signaling value of the “Good Idea Slovakia” brand.

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The European Union as a normative Foreign Policy Actor

Author(s): Natalie Tocci,Hakim Darbouche ,Michael Emerson,Sandra Fernandes,Ruth Hanau-Santini,Gergana Noutcheva,Clara Portela / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

The opening chapter set out the conceptual framework for exploring the question of Who is a normative foreign policy actor? The European Union and its Global Partners. This chapter constitutes one of several case studies applying this framework to the behaviour of the European Union, whereas the others to follow concern China, India, Russia and the United States. A normative foreign policy is rigorously defined as one that is normative according to the goals set, the means employed and the results obtained. Each of these studies exploreseight actual case examples of foreign policy behaviour, selected in order to illustrate four alternative paradigms of foreign policy behaviour – the normative, the realpolitik, the imperialistic and the status quo. For each of these four paradigms,there are two examples of EU foreign policy, one demonstrating intended consequences and the other, unintended effects.

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Rebranding Russia: Norms, Politics and Power

Author(s): Andrey S. Makarychev / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

This chapter argues that Russia is in the process of re-branding itself internationally, with a variety of normative arguments increasingly creeping intoits wider international discourse. By appealing to norms, Russia tries to reformulate the key messages it sends to the world and implant the concept of its power worldwide. Yet given that Russia’s normative messages are often met with scarce enthusiasm in Europe, it is of utmost importance to uncover how the normative segment in Russian foreign policy is perceived, evaluated and debated both inside Russia and elsewhere. Within this framework, this paper focuses on aset of case studies highlighting the normative and non-normative dimensions of Russian foreign policy. These include Russia-EU trans-border cooperation, Moscow’s policies towards Estonia, Poland, Ukraine/Georgia and the UK, Russian strategies in the ‘war on terror’ and energy issues.

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European and Transatlantic Defence-Industrial Strategies: A European View

Author(s): Burkard Schmitt / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

The history of transatlantic armaments cooperation goes back to the beginning of the cold war. Since then, however, the nature of cooperation has changed considerably, from the simple licensing of US systems to Western Europe in the 1950s and 1960s to co-production arrangements in the 1970s, followed by government-to-government joint development in the 1980s and 1990s. In recent years, industry-led cooperation has become the most prominent feature.

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Pre-emptive military action and the legitimate use of force

Author(s): Carl Bildt,Alexander I. Nikitin,Walter B. Slocombe,François Heisbourg / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

The eleventh meeting of the European Security Forum focused on what is becoming known as the Bush doctrine. The proceedings were underpinned by three particularly penetrating papers, which should beread at leisure, as a brief summing-up will not suffice to convey their full scope. Walter Slocombe, in his oral presentation, emphasised the need to handle the prevention/pre-emption debate as distinct from the unilateralism / multilateralism discussion: although they intersect, they are analytically separate. Conversely, he tied the prevention/pre-emption debate to the specific requirements of non-proliferation, while noting that prevention/pre-emption tend to be a limited element of non-proliferation policy given the inherent difficulties of implementation: it is easier to assert apolicy of pre-emption than to execute it effectively. Mr Slocombe also underscored the elements of continuity of the US National Security Strategy(NSS) with US and international law.

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Turkey's strategic future

Author(s): Natalie Tocci,Henry J. Barkey,Natalia Oultchenko,Hüseyin Bağci,Şaban Kardaş,François Heisbourg / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

The European Security Forum’s meeting about Turkey’s strategic future took place shortly after the end of combat operations in Iraq, against the backdrop of redefined US-Turkish relations. To set the stage, we had four papers: “Anchoring Turkey in Europe”, by Nathalie Tocci (Research Fellow at CEPS); “A US View”, by Henri J. Barkey (Head of the Dept. of International Relations, Lehigh University); “A Russian View” by Natalia Oultchenkov (Head of the Turkey Desk, Institute of Oriental Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences); and “Post-11 September Impact: The Strategic Importance of Turkey Revisited”, by Hüseyin Bagci and Saban Kardas (both are Professors at the Middle East Technical University, Ankara).

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SERBIA: Radicalization in Serbia: The Youth of Sandžak between a Hammer and an Anvil

Author(s): Aida Ćorović / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

The end of the 20th century brought deep change to the Balkans, including redefined national aspirations, and the disintegration of one large state and the emergence of new, smaller states. The period was marked not only by economic crisis and the dissolution of political systems, but above all by the brutal and bloody disintegration of Yugoslavia, which had been an important geostrategic meeting point of East and West for years. A wave of conflicts inspired by political extremism soon awakened religious radicalism, and in new and rather unexpected places, such as Albania, where the ban on religion was lifted after the fall of a brutal Communist dictatorship in the early 1990s. This total religious prohibition was replaced by religious freedom, opening the doors to the influence of global Muslim extremism; and pressured by events in Afghanistan, Albania became a destination and temporary refuge for Afghan mujahideen. [...]

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European Perspective and Connectivity of the Western Balkans as a Specific Priority of the First Bulgarian Presidency of the Council 2018

Author(s): Monika Panayotova / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

Please let me extend my gratitude to the Faculty of International Economy and Politics of the University of National and World Economy and to the Bulgarian Association of Political Science for the invitation and the opportunity to exchange withyou on the important topic of the European perspective and connectivity of the Western Balkans as a specific priority of the first Bulgarian Presidency of the Council 2018.

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Bilateral Issues in SEE under External Pressure: Risks for the European Prospects of the Western Balkans

Author(s): Dinko Dinkov / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

As in previous times, nowadays processes in Southeastern Europe (the Balkans)have been swirled into the maelstroms of world geopolitical clashes. Following theunprecedented "new world order", initiated by the superpower that has prevailed atthe end of Cold War era, the main features of the current international system havebeen molded within the clashes among new centers of power, declaring ambitions tobe paramount factors in a dynamically changing world.

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