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South Korea Adopts Indo-Pacific Strategy

Author(s): Oskar Pietrewicz / Language(s): English

Late last year, South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol’s administration published its “Strategy for a Free, Peaceful, and Prosperous Indo-Pacific”. The document confirms a greater alignment of South Korea’s approach to the region with U.S. policy. However, it does not mean that South Korea is adopting a confrontational stance towards China. This is because the pursuit of economic interests remains the most important in South Korean foreign policy. The inclusive nature of the strategy provides an opportunity to deepen the country’s cooperation with EU countries in the spheres of maritime, cyber, and economic security.

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China-Russia: Strategic Partners Strengthening Cooperation

Author(s): Agnieszka Legucka,Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English

The cooperation between China and Russia has strengthened in the face of the Russian aggression against Ukraine and the common goal of weakening the West. This was confirmed by Xi Jinping’s visit to Moscow, which ended on 22 March. Chinese economic and diplomatic support, but also dual-use technologies, makes it easier for Russia to wage war. This increases the need to intensify U.S. and EU efforts in providing assistance to Ukraine and supporting the implementation of the interests of the Global South, which are receptive to the anti-Western message of Russia and China.

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Brazil Engages Unconvincingly in Mediating End of Russia’s War Against Ukraine

Author(s): Bartłomiej Znojek / Language(s): English

Since the end of January, President Lula’s government has been promoting an initiative of a multilateral dialogue for peace in Ukraine. Its main objectives are a ceasefire and mitigating the adverse socioeconomic effects of the war on developing countries, but also strengthening Brazil’s international position. Lula’s government openly condemns Russia’s aggression but criticizes the sanctions against that country and the military support for Ukraine. It maintains it is neutral in the war but also relativises the Russian responsibility for starting it, which undermines Brazil’s credibility as an impartial mediator.

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Businesses, EU Strengthening International Supply Chains

Author(s): Piotr Dzierżanowski / Language(s): English

Over the past three years, global supply chains have experienced problems on an unprecedented scale. Given the rising political tensions and changes in the perception of the role of the economy in international rivalries, a return to international economic relations based on globalisation and trade liberalisation is highly unlikely. Instead, we will witness a necessary strengthening of supply chains, both at the individual business and national levels. For Western economies, the main challenge will be the reduction of related costs.

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Belarusian Foreign Policy Priorities Presents Challenges for Poland

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English

The signing of an agreement on the deployment of non-strategic Russian nuclear weapons on Belarusian territory is the realisation of one of the foreign policy priorities set out by Alexander Lukashenka in deepening the alliance with Russia. Belarus is also developing cooperation with other countries in Asia, the Middle East, and Africa. At the same time, it will continue to pursue a policy that is hostile towards Western countries, especially Poland, and towards Ukraine. Together with increasing military and special services cooperation between Belarus and Russia, this will raise additional challenges for NATO members, especially the Eastern Flank states, in deterrence and defence and building resilience to hybrid threats.

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China Trying to Gain Greater Influence in Central Asia

Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English

The China-Central Asia Summit held in Xi’an in May confirmed China’s desire to strengthen its presence in the region at Russia’s expense. Among the reasons is Central Asian states’ scepticism of Russian aggression in Ukraine. At the same time, China’s stronger political and security-sector involvement is expected to confirm its image as bringing stability to the international situation. To balance Russian-Chinese influence in Central Asia, the EU would be advised to accelerate the implementation of investment projects in the region and to intensify, together with the U.S., the dialogue with states there, especially on tightening sanctions against Russia.

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Assessing the Potential of North Korean Ammunition and Weapons Deliveries to Russia

Author(s): Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski / Language(s): English

Military assistance from North Korea (DPRK) may partially meet Russia’s needs and help it in continuing the war with Ukraine. Its impact on the military situation depends on the continuity, quantity, and quality of supplies of ammunition and weapons. The developing secret military cooperation between the two countries demands the increased attention of Western intelligence services, publicising it on the international stage, and more active countermeasures by Ukraine’s partners.

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EP’s Two Largest Parties Again Seek Suitable Partner for After 2024 Elections

Author(s): Tomasz Zając / Language(s): English

Europe’s two largest political parties—the European People’s Party and the Socialists and Democrats - have weakened over the course of the ninth term of the European Parliament, which ends in 2024. If the trends in their support are maintained, the parties will have to do what they did after the 2019 elections and find a partner to form a majority supporting the European Commission. That partner will most likely be the Liberals of Renew Europe (their support in opinion polls has also dropped). However, the declining ratings of the European centre-right have caused the Christian Democrat president to seek allies among the European Conservatives and Reformists as well. However, a coalition of the Christian Democrats, Liberals and Conservatives in the future parliament is unlikely due to internal resistance within the ranks of the first two groups to cooperation with the Conservatives.

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EU and NATO Countries Strengthen the Protection of Critical Infrastructure

Author(s): Filip Bryjka,Tomasz Zając / Language(s): English

New EU regulations on critical infrastructure could strengthen the resilience of the Member States to hybrid threats from Russia and China. The main challenge, however, will be to develop and implement precise standards for the protection of such infrastructure jointly with NATO. It will be necessary to exchange experience in this regard among states and on the state-private sector line. This may provoke resistance among some Member States reluctant to share sensitive information.

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Assessing the Perspectives on the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict

Author(s): Arkadiusz Legieć / Language(s): English

Another armed escalation between Armenian and Azeri forces, initiated by Azerbaijan, took place in Nagorno-Karabakh in early August this year. The country’s goal is to exert maximum political pressure on Armenia during two-track peace talks under the auspices of the EU and Russia. At the moment, there is no chance of resolving the conflict, as it would not benefit Azerbaijan, which is the stronger side of the conflict, nor Russia, which is using the situation in the NK to emphasise its role as a mediator and to get the U.S. and EU countries to resume political dialogue with it.

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Extended Nuclear Deterrence Capabilities Under Debate in the U.S.

Author(s): Artur Kacprzyk / Language(s): English

The U.S. Congress will likely reverse President Joe Biden’s decision to discontinue the development of a sea-launched nuclear cruise missile. While the U.S. is already planning to substantially enhance other capabilities to deter a nuclear attack on the allies, this missile could provide an additional hedge in an uncertain security environment in which the threat from Russia may grow further still. While the capability might strengthen deterrence of Russia, it would not replace NATO’s current nuclear capabilities in Europe as a means to demonstrate the resilience of the whole Alliance to nuclear threats.

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China Tightens Policy towards Taiwan

Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English

China treated the visit of Speaker of the House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan at the beginning of August as an expression of U.S. efforts to change the status quo in the region. The reaction of the Chinese authorities was calculated as a controlled escalation of tensions in the Taiwan Strait, but without the risk of direct military confrontation. Harsh rhetoric, military exercises around the island, and the limitation of dialogue with the U.S. confirmed the intention of China to take over Taiwan in the coming years. For the EU, this means the need to intensify support for Taiwan, including the development of political and economic contacts.

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Egypt Faces Severe Economic Problems

Author(s): Sara Nowacka / Language(s): English

In August, a year before the end of his term of office, Tarek Amer, head of the Egyptian Central Bank, resigned. This was a consequence of the deepening economic crisis caused by a decline in the country’s currency reserves and the impact of global problems on Egypt, which is dependent on food imports. Capital-intensive investments, mainly in the energy and real estate sectors, will exacerbate Egypt’s situation. Given the size of its population, economic collapse would have a significant destabilising impact on the EU’s southern neighbourhood.

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Russia Blocks Consensus Outcome of the NPT Review Conference

Author(s): Łukasz Kulesa / Language(s): English

On 26 August, Russia blocked the adoption of the final document of the Tenth Review Conference of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). It opposed the proposed provisions regarding the threats to the security and safety of Ukrainian nuclear installations, in particular the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. Russia's decision has weakened the international non-proliferation regime. The course of the conference also showed increased divisions between nuclear states and their allies, and supporters of swift and complete nuclear disarmament.

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The EU and RES: From Fighting Climate Change to Fighting Russia

Author(s): Zuzanna Nowak / Language(s): English

Renewable energy sources (RES) are a key tool in EU climate policy. They can also be an important remedy to the problems of the shortage of energy resources and political abuses of control over them by producers and suppliers. However, at the current level of development of RES technologies, their use is associated with risks for energy security. For the EU, which wants to accelerate the development of its renewable energy potential in the wake of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, a simultaneous goal should be to reduce the vulnerability of the European energy market to renewable energy challenges, such as cyberattacks or lack of access to critical raw materials.

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EU Weighs Lessons of the Temporary Protection Directive for the Future of Asylum Policy

Author(s): Jolanta Szymańska / Language(s): English

In response to the mass of refugees following the Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the EU activated a 2001 directive to grant refugees from the latter country temporary protection on the territory of the Member States. The use of this instrument has provided an impetus for the bottom-up relocation of refugees within the EU and accelerated the delivery of assistance, avoiding overloading national asylum systems. Although the positive experiences with the application of the directive will be important for further work on the reform of the EU asylum system, it will not become the basis of a new solidarity mechanism in a crisis.

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Canada Confronts Challenges in Defence Policy

Author(s): Paweł Markiewicz / Language(s): English

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine further increased Canada’s support for Ukraine, which was already strong before the war. Despite previous resistance, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau decided to increase the defence budget and make new investments in military capabilities. However, the scale of challenges concerning technical modernisation of the Canadian Armed Forces means that strengthening the military presence in Europe will not be a priority for Canada. The country’s role in further strengthening the Eastern Flank, in accordance with decisions reached at the NATO Summit in Madrid, will likely be limited.

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Surviving by Minimalism: Slovakia’s V4 Presidency

Author(s): Łukasz Ogrodnik / Language(s): English

The Hungarian government’s reaction to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has undermined the trust of Poland, Czechia, and Slovakia. This limits political cooperation within the Visegrad Group (V4) and has a negative impact on its activities, including in the field of defence. Therefore, Slovakia, which on 1 July took over the year-long presidency of the V4, plans to focus on non-controversial topics such as transport, culture, and tourism. At the same time, it wants to be more actively involved in other platforms of regional cooperation, mainly the Slavkov Triangle.

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Surviving the Winter: France’s Preparations for a New Energy Crisis

Author(s): Łukasz Maślanka / Language(s): English

Faced with the threat of a cut-off of gas supplies from Russia and the temporary shutdown of a large number of reactors, the French government has begun to encourage citizens and businesses to reduce their gas and electricity consumption. The most effective savings incentive would be a partial price release, but the resulting social discontent and recession could destabilise the political situation in the country, including undermining French support for Ukraine. The authorities are therefore promising to further limit price increases, while seeking alternative sources of electricity and gas supply.

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China as a Challenge for NATO: Weighing Its Influence on the Collective Defence of the Alliance

Author(s): Wojciech Lorenz / Language(s): English

NATO has recognised China’s policies as a challenge to Euro-Atlantic security, an area which, according to the North Atlantic Treaty, is the Alliance’s primary responsibility. This designation allows for the strengthening of strategic relations between the U.S. and its European allies, on which the credibility of NATO’s collective defence depends. However, it will be necessary to clarify the division of responsibilities between the U.S. and other allies related to both the defence of the treaty area and wider international security in the face of threats from Russia and China.

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