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Mehrere Anwärter scharren in den Startlöchern, um sich im Augenblick von Gustav Husaks Abgang die beste Ausgangsposition für die Führung der KPTsch zu sichern.
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This research work contribute to the never ending debate in the finance-growth literature by examining the complimentary and substitution effects of banks and stock market as they both affect economic growth in Nigeria. A revisit of this subject matter is necessary to check the preparedness of Nigeria’s financial system to key into the global finance goal of ‘financialization’ and also to overcome financial issues militating against her economic growth. Dwelling on the issues of sustainability and liquidity which is paramount for the gains of financial development to translate to economic growth, linear and interaction models that equate bank, stock market and growth variables to economic growth are specified and estimated. Particularly, our findings reveal the importance and strength of the value of stock traded to economic growth when it interacts with bank variables and when on its own. Contrary to previous studies in developed countries, substitution effects are observed in the short run while complimentary effects are observed in the long run. It is believed that this could have been caused by too much of government intervention and control. We therefore recommend an institutional-centric approach for Nigeria’s financial system.
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The Irish conflict was generally perceived as intractable, rooted in the question of identity. Given the stringent ‘positions’ framed by identities, no solution seemed possible. When attention was paid to addressing the interests underlying the conflict, the identity issue faded away. The popular perception of an identity crisis notwithstanding, the Ukrainian conflict is also rooted in socio-economic and geo-political interests. Drawing lessons from Ulster, a solution in Ukraine is possible. However, Ukraine should remain careful about not copying the consociationalist outcome of Ulster, for a power-sharing arrangement will establish a false sense of a divided society in East Ukraine.
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In the 2000s, Russia tried in the ex-Soviet space to replicate the same arguments (and tactics) of relativising international law that the West/ NATO used in order to justify their own intervention in the ex-Yugoslav space back in the 1990s. This strategy of so-called ‘mimicry’ manifests by changing the meanings of international norms based on one’s own preferences, but does not accept other powers to behave in the same way. This strategy of legitimisation, which lies behind recognising the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia (2008) or the annexation of Crimea (2014), mixes real elements with fake ones, and ends in distorting reality. To illustrate the political consequences of such practices, we can take a look at Russia’s strategy of invoking the Western ‘precedent’ in Kosovo in order to legitimate the illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014. The paper aims to argue that when analysing Russia’s actions in Crimea in 2014, there is a need for a thorough analysis of the main legitimacy claims used to justify external intervention to outline potential lessons that could be learnt by Ukraine from the experiences of the Balkans.
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This article is aimed to analyse the most prominent and essential political, economic and security trends of the last 20 years in this region, as well as to forecast further developments based on election promises of the President-elect of the United States of America, the key country in the region. Attention is also paid to the possible influence North American regional trends might have on world politics, economics and security in the next several years.
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Despite the negative impact that the Ukrainian Crisis has had on bilateral relations with Astana, in terms of mutual trade, it has become a reference point to enhance cooperation in different areas, including aviation industry, infrastructure, fuel and energy complex, agriculture and tourism. Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko’s official visit to Astana in October, 2015 outlined prospects and mutual benefits for Kazakhstan-Ukraine relations against the backdrop of the ‘Russian factor’.
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Slovakia and Ukraine are geographic neighbors, which have independently sought a path for integration with the rest of Europe and strategic partnerships. While Slovakia successfully integrated joining the European Union, the Eurozone, and NATO, Ukraine is still involved in the process. The main research questions the author covers in the article are the relations Ukraine has had with the Slovak Republic since 2014, with the illegal annexation of the Crimea by Russia, and continued unrest in the Donbas region following. What, if any, regional cooperation exists between the two nations? And how much Slovakia aids Ukraine?
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Human rights situation in Crimea has deteriorated dramatically during the two years of peninsula’s illegal annexation by the Russian Federation. Numerous cases of grave violations of fundamental rights and freedoms of ethnic Ukrainians, Crimean Tatars and civil society activists attract the attention of the international community that looks for a way of ensuring respect for human rights in the region. More active engagement of international organizations with both Ukraine and Russia’s participation and the establishment of permanent monitoring of the situation could become a key to this problem.
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The concept of electoral security as one of the prerequisites of post-conflict transformations is becoming widespread in operational documents of international organizations (UN) and some national agencies (USAID), expressing the responsibility to promote peace-building activities in a fragile political environment. In the context of human rights based approach, this concept assumes a special meaning for democratic transformations and reforms. It is strongly connected with such concepts as electoral conflict, electoral justice, electoral integrity, and transitional justice. The broad international experience of electoral security implementation enables the search of strategies for a consistent electoral reform in Ukraine and capacity building for elections at the uncontrolled districts of Donetsk and Luhansk regions after the end of the conflict.
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Though Ukraine has never been so close to getting a visa-free regime with the EU, till recently the process could still be delayed or even disrupted. The EU has been taking the final decision not only based on technical criteria envisaged by the Visa Liberalization Action Plan (VLAP)1 but also taking into account the factors of security and migration risks, raised from the latest refugee crisis in the European Union and due to the conflict in the east of Ukraine. The VLAP appeared to be one of the most effective stimuli for Ukraine to advance reforms in the sphere of fight against corruption, security of documents and migration management. The result of an independent survey, conducted by the Civic Organization “Europe without Barriers” (EWB) revealed that the three abovementioned issues appeared to be in the focus of the EU policy makers and NGOs with regard to the abolition of the visa regime with Ukraine. Overall, interviewees saw corruption as the key problem, acknowledging that it is much harder to fight corruption than to introduce new laws or passports. Corruption is seen as the factor undermining success in many different parts of the VLAP: “The best border control does not help if the guards are not earning enough money or view their service as something they can sell.”2 The armed conflict in the east of Ukraine brought into the focus the issue of document security. EU countries express their concern regarding the entry of terrorist and armed radical groups to the territories of EU with Ukrainian passports3. The visa liberalization mechanism gives the opportunity to enhance documents’ security by introducing biometric data for the travel and identification documents. As found during EWB external survey4, some migration stereotypes about Ukraine circulating in the European Union’s Member States could come up as a threat to the political support of visa liberalisation to Ukraine. It is thought that this would lead to more poverty and an increasing number of internally displaced persons (IDPs) in Ukraine, motivating more Ukrainians to try to get to the European Union. Also, the high number of approximately 1.6 million IDPs may lead to the conclusion that they will not be able to return to their homes anytime soon, making emigration an interesting option for them. In this context, Ukraine’s progress in reforms within the visa liberalization process appeared to be under the close look of the EU. Ukraine needs to demonstrate real steps towards fighting corruption as well as regulating the security situation and migration flows.
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The whole idea behind the launch of the European Neighbourhood Policy was to secure the near environment on the EU’s border perimeter after the enlargement wave in 2004. Neighbouring states to the East and South, which differed drastically in terms of their geographical and historical background, political system and level of democracy have been united in “one fits all” policy with the declared aim to “foster stability, security and prosperity” in the region. As a result of a more serious division among countries in the European Union over participants of the ENP, a new Poland-Sweden initiative “Eastern Partnership” started as the EU policy in 2009. Despite some positive changes in partner-countries as well as on a bilateral track with Brussels, Eastern Partnership failed to effectively address the challenges on the ground. The only possible way to correct the Eastern Partnership policy is to take into account the present miscalculations in relations with Russia and address precisely the needs of each partner. At the moment, the preliminary results of the ENP revision seem to have difficulties in passing the Ukrainian test.
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The European energy market emerged primarily due to economic interests under the European Coal and Steel Community with politics overtaking only in 1973 because of the oil embargo. Politics in energy affairs has been prevailing on the EU agenda since 2007 after the “third energy package” was introduced and Ukraine played a significant role as a catalyst for progressive development. Since 2014, politics has been dominating energy sector development in the EU because of Russia’s aggressive behaviour against both Ukraine and the Member-States.
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Prospective analysis is an important component of strategic long-term planning. There is a range of methodologies, techniques and models applied in the field with uneven results. The international experience underlines the difficulty of making predictions in a highly unstable period, when we can mark off the end of the holiday offered by the post-Cold war period and the renewal of the fight for a better position caused by the global players’ new economic and military capacities and their sheer multiplicity. The big challenge is how to elaborate prospective scenarios (and not predictions) in the middle of an evolving crisis, with the „depth” of these predictions to cover 6 months-1 year, 3-5 years, 10-15 years. Experts tried to meet this challenge in a project related to prospective studies for the Ukrainian Crisis. The project was funded by the German Marshall Fund in 20141. To make an assessment, an original methodology was used. It is described below and establishes the strong signals approach (continuity scenarios), weak signals approach (events that become relevant in the mid to long term, with a significant impact on the evolution of such a scenario), and black swan events approach (law probability events with high impact, if the scenario develops that way).
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The Ukrainian crisis was unpredictable for many politicians and experts from its very beginning, and it continues to be a complicated issue for analysis and solution management. Eminent politicians and experts are trying their best to come up with various scenarios, including examples of peaceful accords and arrangements such as Finlandization or Bosnization. In this article, the author compares the situation in Ukraine and in Bosnia after 1995, including the Dayton Peace Agreement’s impact on its further development, and what lessons Ukraine can learn from this process and its results.
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Review of: Andrzej Kastory - Andrzej Mania, Department of State i Foreign Service w polityce zagranicznej USA w latach gorącej i zimnej wojny 1939–1989, Kraków 2019, Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Jagiellońskiego, ss. 763 Paweł Perzyna - Jerzy Bednarek, Wokół pamięci i historii. Działalność archiwalna Instytutu Pamięci Narodowej w latach 2000–2016, Warszawa 2021, Instytut Pamięci Narodowej, ss. 342
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Human resources management is essential in the field of healthcare, where the client faces challenges, due to the poor performance of the staff, which does not have the necessary experience and quality, so that the human resources management plays an active and vital role in the success of the health sector reform. Human resource management is concerned with the development of both individuals and the organization in which individuals operate. The research topic is successfully integrated into the new research directions in the field of human resources management of organizations, internationally.
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The danger of export dependent economies is exposure to external shocks, that weakens the domestic economy, which is evident in countries exporting oil in Africa. The fortunes from increased oil revenue by these countries, have been sabotaged through the same shocks in oil prices, leading to inconsistencies in monetary policy. This article examined responses of monetary policy in oil exporting African countries {OEAC] to oil prices and by extension its effect on manufacturing sector’s productivity. Previous research had mixed results on the relationship with inflation and its effect on growth, leading to an ambivalence as per the effect on manufacturing industries’ output. The error correction panel data method was employed in our investigation and it favours structural dynamism as against dynamism of residuals without the usual factor imposition. Three stages of tests [unit root, cointegration and short/long run estimations] were performed. Long run weak association was observed for monetary policy coefficients and that of the productivity growth rate of the manufacturing unit of OEACs. Both the panel and static results have more influence in the short run than in the long run as far as the monetary policy coefficients are concerned. A substantive positive relationship exists for currency undervaluation as well as the productivity growth rate of the manufacturing section of OEACs. This suggests that a decrease in the price of a currency can influence local production and therefore boost real sector advancement. Our results also confirmed the existence of inverse association between the growth rate of the manufacturing unit plus net domestic credit. It is an outcome that lend credence to existing findings about growth and undervalued currencies in many developing economies.
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The COVID 19 pandemic has once again exposed a number of important risks and problems for the world's economies. Although the present analyzes of the literature are more and more often aggregated between fields, emphasizing the capacity of digitalization and international relations to improve the transition to the circular economy, resilience speaks not only of positive aspects but also of vulnerabilities. Thus, the article deals with the link between vulnerabilities and capacities of the socio-economic domain at EU27 level. The study uses Eurostat data for the period 2011-2020, systematized in the panel form. The results once again demonstrate the need to strengthen public support for health and education, for research and development, in order to reduce socio-economic vulnerabilities at EU27 level, demonstrating the need to correlate policy efforts with results.
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