Series:PISM Policy Papers

№143: Ukraine: A Migration Corridor with Half-Closed Doors

Author(s): Piotr Kościński / Language(s): English

At a time when many European countries are strengthening border protection (including building walls), migrants will seek new avenues to Europe. In this context and of particular importance will be the policy of the authorities of Ukraine, which currently, and despite the still unstable situation in the country (war in the east and economic problems) could become the country of choice for migrants. Another problem for Kyiv may be internal migration. Both forms increase the risk of migration to EU countries such as Poland, Hungary, Slovakia and Romania, which are neighbours of Ukraine. In this situation, additional EU assistance to the authorities in Kyiv will be necessary.

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№144: The EU-Turkey Deal on Refugees: How to Move Forward

Author(s): Pinar Elman / Language(s): English

Since the EU-Turkey deal on refugees on 29 November, there has not been a significant reduction in the numbers of migrants crossing into the EU from Turkey. One of the main reasons is probably lack of trust between Turkey and European Commission in their readiness to keep promises. EU can break the impasse by offering Schengen visa liberalisation but at the same time should use the accession negotiations to exert greater pressure on Ankara.

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№145: Transnistria Zig-zagging towards a DCFTA

Author(s): Stanislav Secrieru / Language(s): English

Although Transnistria, in exchange for meeting certain conditions, was allowed to benefit from the free trade agreement that Moldova signed with the EU, there are plenty of obstacles which could derail the deal. The business community in the breakaway republic is eager to enjoy the fruits of the DCFTA but is reluctant to shoulder the price of necessary reforms, the outgoing leader of the separatist enclave could undermine the agreement for electoral reasons, Russia might be tempted to test the EU’s resolve to defend its trade-related norms, and Moldova could erect bureaucratic barriers for producers from the left bank of the Nistru River. In the light of these many risks, the EU should persistently encourage all sides to stick to their commitments while averting disputes that would undermine enforcement of the DCFTA in Transnistria in a timely manner.

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№146: How ASEAN’s Transformation Can Play Out Well for Europe

Author(s): Damian Wnukowski / Language(s): English

The transformation of ASEAN into an economic community is a significant step in the organisation’s integration process. The project, formally launched at the beginning of 2016, aims at creation of a single market of more than 620 million people, loosens the flow of goods, services and investment, which should underpin regional economic growth and catch the attention of foreign businesses. However, obstacles to economic cooperation remain, such as limitations on the movement of labour or capital, which shows that the integration process is not yet complete. The EU, which can benefit from a well-functioning market in this region, should share its own experience to support the ASEAN integration process.

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№147: Forever on the Periphery? The Return of Geopolitics to EU Enlargement to the Balkans

Author(s): Tomasz Żornaczuk / Language(s): English

At the beginning of 2016, almost 13 years after the Thessaloniki declaration to integrate the Western Balkans into the European Union, Brussels is left with Croatia as a Member State, Montenegro half way, at best, to becoming one, Serbia with first negotiation chapters just opened, and half of the region with no clear prospect of membership. But the wait-and-see approach that the EU had been employing for a number of years towards the enlargement policy in the Balkans1has become even riskier in times of new international challenges. Among them, the ever-growing tensions between the West and Russia should, in particular, serve as motivation for the Union to look at enlargement in the Balkans from a geopolitical angle. Even if the Member States have in recent years shown less enthusiasm towards further rounds of enlargement, this should not discourage the EU institutions from undertaking an active role to revive the European integration process in the Balkans.

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№148: Many Belts and Many Roads: The Proliferation of Infrastructure Initiatives in Asia

Author(s): Justyna Szczudlik / Language(s): English

Asia could be described as the world’s great construction site, and is already the focus of a scramble for infrastructure projects. Among countries competing for investments are not only China with its Silk Road initiative, but also Korea, Japan, India and ASEAN, which have prepared their own infrastructural strategies. The plethora of initiatives may have a positive impact on Asia, offering diverse solutions to the infrastructural bottleneck and reforms of existing institutions and modes of assistance. But there is also the risk that fierce competition may result in unprofitable projects, while economic slowdown could cause a decline in funding. For Europe these initiatives create opportunities to take part in new projects, but the EU should be aware that the projects will be implemented mainly in Asia and by Asian countries.

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№149: The Global Outlook of the Top Five Candidates in the U.S. Presidential Election

Author(s): Cordelia Buchanan Ponczek / Language(s): English

Traditionally, there is a partisan split on foreign policy in the United States: Republican candidates and voters worry more about terrorism, defence and national security than Democratic candidates and voters, thereby putting more stock in foreign policy issues, which manifests itself in the aggressiveness—of lack thereof—of each party’s foreign policy platform. But the candidates in the 2016 U.S. presidential election can be categorised by more than just party: a line can also be drawn between conventional candidates—Hillary Clinton, a Democrat, and Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio, Republicans—and unconventional candidates—Donald Trump, a Republican, and Bernie Sanders, a Democrat. Should a conventional candidate be elected president, U.S. foreign policy would be based on predictable adaptation to the changing international environment. An unconventional candidate, however, would be a wild card, whose actions would be difficult to predict.

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№150: Brazil’s Perception of the Visegrad Group: Not a Strategic but a Prospective Partnership

Author(s): Marek Jan Wasiński,Carolina Salgado / Language(s): English

The Visegrad Group is still a new label among policy makers as well as public and private investors, scholars and media in Brazil. However, since their accession to the EU in 2004, and the financial crisis that started in 2008, the four Central European countries in this group have started to look beyond Europe in order to formulate their economic and political agenda, aiming to boost partnerships, for example among the biggest South American countries such as Brazil. V4 and Brazil should build momentum to deepen cooperation in the most promising prospective areas such as trade, military, tourism and education.

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№151: EU Pressure Insufficient to Gain U.S. Visa Waiver for Poles

Author(s): Marek Jan Wasiński / Language(s): English

In a communication of 12 April, the European Commission assessed the potential political and economic consequences of suspending visa exemption for U.S. citizens. Lacking pressure from individual EU Member States, the Commission discouraged such a move and gave the EU Council and European Parliament three months to take an official position. It seems almost certain that the measure of applying pressure on a non-EU country will not be used to help Poland and four other Member States obtain visa-free travel to the United States or other countries with a similar restriction. However, if current trends continue, Poland should join the U.S. Visa Waiver Programme in five years.

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№152: NATO in Libya: A Long-term Plan for Stability

Author(s): Paolo Quercia,Patrycja Sasnal,Julianne Smith,Kurt Volker / Language(s): English

Never was there a better time for NATO’s involvement in Libya than now. The Government of National Accord (GNA) is the only available option for a more stable future of the country. It has already shown it can deliver by defeating the Islamic State (IS) in Sirte, but without urgent support from the international community it may not be able to show more progress in providing security, reform and services to the Libyan people. Once it receives a request from the GNA, NATO can and should assist in SSR, border control and countering people-smuggling as there is no better placed actor to help Libya in this regard.

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№153: How Can NATO Contribute to Ukraine and Georgia’s Border Security?

Author(s): Jeffrey Rathke,Daniel Szeligowski,Konrad Zasztowt / Language(s): English

Conflicts beyond NATO’s borders, such as the Russian occupation of Georgia’s Abkhazia and South Ossetia and aggression in Ukraine, pose a threat to the security of NATO’s eastern flank states. Therefore, NATO’s ability to provide security to its members depends on the Alliance cooperating closely with its neighbours. In this respect, Ukraine and Georgia, both of which share borders with NATO members, are of special importance. NATO should build on the experience of its own members, and join ranks with the European Union in order to further support the territorial integrity of Ukraine and Georgia. Enhanced border security should be a key element of such partnerships.

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№154: Common Monetary Policy, Different Fiscal Policy: How Will Europe React to Crises in the Future? An Analysis Looking at Germany, France and Poland as Examples

Author(s): Matthias Schäfer,Astrid Pape / Language(s): English

There is consensus across all ideological boundaries that the eurozone is imperfect as an institution.2 Thecommon monetary policy, in combination with national scope in fiscal policymaking and a non-optimalcurrency area has painfully exposed its weaknesses, not only in relation to the dramatic developments inGreece but also in the shape of the slow recovery of the European economy. While countries such asGermany have emerged fortified from the crisis, France’s growth, for instance, continues to weaken—despite an annual budget deficit of 3%. Within Europe, opinions differ as to which fiscal policy will best pave the way out of the crisis. While Germany publicises its healthy finances in the form of low levels of debt and minimal inflation,4countriessuch as France view expansionary fiscal policy as a crucial factor for future growth. The Stability and GrowthPact provides a framework for fiscal policy, although differences of opinion are evident when it comes to itsimplementation and compliance with the rules. In Germany in particular, the recent relaxed handling ofviolations of the signed rule set was criticised.

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№155: Gas Security in the Pipeline—Expectations and Realities

Author(s): Aleksandra Gawlikowska-Fyk,Jakub M. Godzimirski / Language(s): English

The cooperation between Norway and Poland in the energy sector has recently taken very tangible shape. In 2016, Poland decided to launch the Northern Gate project—a set of gas interconnections aiming to link the Polish gas market with gas deposits on the Norwegian Continental Shelf. With that decision, Poland wants to diversify away from Russia to mitigate energy security and political risks connected with the high level of dependence on one supplier. But in terms of Polish-Norwegian cooperation, the question of security of gas supply that Poland wants to address is accompanied by the question of the security of gas demand, a key concern for gas producers such as Norway. Hence, cooperation in the gas sector examined from those two perspectives may actually bring benefits for both countries and promises of win-win cooperation.

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№156: Adapting NATO’s Conventional Force Posture in the Nordic-Baltic Region

Author(s): Artur Kacprzyk,Karsten Friis / Language(s): English

The security of NATO members in the Nordic-Baltic region is interconnected by such factors as the possibility of geographical escalation, the importance of securing the North Atlantic for U.S. reinforcement of Europe, and the key role of cooperation with NATO partners Sweden and Finland. NATO must consider these interconnections as it continues to adapt to the challenge posed by Russia. NATO’s further adaptation should fill in the gaps in Allied force posture and be guided by an overarching principle of ensuring coherence between its existing elements and new ones. Given Poland and Norway’s close views on NATO and transatlantic relations, as well as their credibility rooted in their various contributions to the Alliance, the countries should jointly advocate a coherent process in the Nordic-Baltic region.

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№157: Squaring the Circle: Is a Balanced Deterrence and Dialogue Approach toward Russia Workable?

Author(s): Wojciech Lorenz,Jakub M. Godzimirski / Language(s): English

Dialogue between Russia and NATO is indispensable to limit the risk of unintended military confrontation amid increased tension. Without dialogue, Alliance cohesion is also at stake. To develop a balance between deterrence and dialogue, it is necessary to understand how the two actions relate to each other, what lessons the West can learn from the past, and what goals it wants to achieve apart from limiting the risk of confrontation.

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№158: China as an “Engine” of Globalisation: More Words than Deeds

Author(s): Justyna Szczudlik,Damian Wnukowski / Language(s): English

As the U.S. under President Donald Trump leans towards protectionist economic policy, China sees an opportunity to become a driving force of globalisation. It presents itself as having the economic potential and political clout crucial to being its champion. However, China’s still relatively closed market, use of prohibited trade practices, stalled internal economic reforms, social challenges, and political disputes with neighbouring countries make its claim less probable in the years to come. For now, China lacks the credibility to be an engine of globalisation.

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№159: EU Policy Options Towards Post-Soviet De Facto States

Author(s): Urban Jakša / Language(s): English

Conflicts in post-Soviet areas involving de facto states have remained unresolved since the ceasefires in the early 1990s. By heating up periodically, these conflicts threaten broader regional security, and by remaining unresolved, limit their chances for political association and economic integration with the EU, undermining the Union’s Eastern Partnership. In recent years, the EU’s tensions with Russia, the ever-growing dependence of most post-Soviet de facto states on Russia, the recent re-escalation in Nagorno-Karabakh, and recently emerged, protracted conflict in eastern Ukraine have made the situation more complicated and urgent. Since the EU’s current approach towards these “frozen conflicts” has so far shown little result, the EU and the V4 should take a more active role in resolving these conflicts and might want to consider stepping up engagement with the post-Soviet de facto states. Increasing the interaction and extending its scope while at the same time reassuring the parent states that this will not constitute “de facto recognition” would de-isolate the populations of these territories, reduce their dependence on Russia and provide incentives for conflict resolution.

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№160: Xi Transforms the PLA: How the Military Is Being Adapted to China’s Changing Global Position

Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English

Reform of the Chinese armed forces gained new momentum under Xi Jinping in 2015. The main argument behind the strategy, structure, and equipment modernisation of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is the active defence of China’s global interests to strengthen its competitiveness with the United States. A short-term goal is to make the PLA operationally capable of projecting China’s power abroad constantly, using joint exercises, peacekeeping missions, and the development of military infrastructure. One recent example was opening of China’s first foreign military base in Djibouti. The PLA should also be capable of defending China’s territory and overseas interests by performing combat operations abroad. This means a possible change to the non-intervention clause that has until now been a crucial element of China’s foreign policy.

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№161: Towards a “New Era” in China’s Great Power Diplomacy

Author(s): Justyna Szczudlik / Language(s): English

In his first term, Chinese leader Xi Jinping abandoned Deng Xiaoping’s foreign policy dictum of “keeping a low profile.” But China’s activism in the middle of Xi’s first term was still more reactive than creative. However, in the last two years a new phase of diplomacy has emerged, in which all actions are subordinated to China’s unchanging strategic foreign policy goal of regaining its superpower status. This means that China strives to enforce change in the global system, which is dominated by the West. The PRC is already trying to introduce new standards for international relations and promotes its values and principles more aggressively worldwide. There are already examples that Xi is effectively implementing his ideas.

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№162: Austria in Central Europe: The Aspiration to Become a Bridge-Builder

Author(s): Łukasz Ogrodnik / Language(s): English

Austria’s government has declared it will be a bridge-builder in the European Union between its western and eastern members. This is in fact rather more an endorsement of the Union cohesion on the eve of Austria’s presidency of the EU Council than a genuine offer to represent the Visegrad states’ interests in the EU. Vienna is also trying to strengthen its position in Central Europe using regional cooperation initiatives such as the Slavkov Triangle, Three Seas Initiative, and the V4+ format. However, Austria’s pro-Russia stances and economic conflicts of interest have burdened relations with regional partners. Common goals remain limited but include the development of transport infrastructure, an endorsement of the European integration of the Western Balkans and strengthening the EU’s external borders.

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