Series:PISM Policy Papers

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№163: Putting Georgia on the 2018 NATO Summit Agenda

Author(s): Wojciech Lorenz / Language(s): English

Russia’s annexation of Crimea triggered a shift in NATO’s policy towards Georgia. NATO moved from mainly political support for Georgia’s NATO membership aspirations to enhanced practical military cooperation. Although it might be more difficult for Russia to coerce its small neighbour, the lack of visible progress on the path to NATO membership may weaken Georgian morale and lead to a reversal of democratic gains. Hence, it is important that during the 2018 NATO Summit in Brussels the Allies offer additional support to help Georgia increase its resilience.

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№164: The Bucharest 9: Delivering on the Promise to Become the Voice of the Eastern Flank

Author(s): Marcin Terlikowski,Veronika Jóźwiak,Łukasz Ogrodnik,Jakub Pieńkowski,Kinga Raś / Language(s): English

The Bucharest 9 (B9), a group composed of NATO’s easternmost members, has quickly earned clout as the voice of states whose security is the most undermined by the increasingly provocative Russian rhetoric and force posture and of the region that has become the focus of the Alliance’s response to this threat. Indeed, the potential of the B9 to shape the NATO agenda is significant, not least because most of its countries present a rigid commitment to common defence by taking on an increased burden in NATO by increasing defence expenditures and investing in new capabilities. Yet, the B9 also faces limits to its effectiveness because of its participating states’ differing threat perceptions, uneven commitments to beefing-up national defence capabilities, and the potential volatility of their respective military modernisation and transformation plans. More cooperation within the B9 framework, both political and military, could alleviate these problems and help make it the real voice of the Eastern Flank.

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№165: Nord Stream 2: Inconvenient Questions

Author(s): Aleksandra Gawlikowska-Fyk,Marcin Terlikowski,Bartosz Wiśniewski,Szymon Zaręba / Language(s): English

As the European Union faces a range of pressing challenges, there is one issue that merits special attention: The Russian gas pipeline running on the Baltic Sea seabed. Although it is often portrayed as “purely commercial”, the purpose of Nord Stream 2 is anything but that. It is intended to rewrite the politics of natural gas supply to Europe for years to come and to solidify Russia’s position on the EU gas market. Beyond economic and market considerations, a number of issues leave no doubt that the “blue fuel”, rather than becoming an increasingly tradable commodity, remains one of Russia’s principal instruments of pressure and coercion, both political and economic.

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№166: How Russian Violations of the 1997 Founding Act Influence NATO-Russia Relations

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner,Artur Kacprzyk,Wojciech Lorenz,Marcin Terlikowski / Language(s): English

The NATO-Russia Founding Act adopted in 1997 reflected the consensus within the Alliance that new security architecture in Europe should be based on three pillars: enlargement of transformed NATO, European integration and partnership with Russia. Self-limitation on the stationing and deployment of troops in the territories of new NATO members was conditioned upon Russia’s observance of the rule-based order. After the annexation of Crimea, the Allies decided to respect the spirit of the Founding Act to limit the risk of escalation and defend the security system Russia is interested in derailing. The Allies, however, should adopt a less dogmatic approach to NRFA, which would offer additional flexibility in strengthening NATO’s cohesion and influencing Russian calculations.

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№167: The Importance of Russia’s Second-Generation Elite

Author(s): Bartosz Bieliszczuk,Agnieszka Legucka / Language(s): English

The appointment of Dmitry Patrushev, the son of the Secretary of the Security Council of Russia, to a ministerial post is a symbol of the ongoing shift of power to a younger generation of Russian leaders. A growing group of so-called “Kremlin Kids” hold significant, even though not visible, positions in the power structures, enabling Russian elites to maintain influence and control through personal and family links. Such a controlled transition will augment a political system that has the features of a kleptocracy and clan-like organisation. For Western countries, it is a signal that Russia’s strategic goal of enforcing the change in the European security system will be continued.

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№168: Recalibration of China’s Policy towards WANA: Greater Political and Security Cooperation?

Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English

China’s policy towards the region it terms West Asia and North Africa (WANA) used to focus on economic cooperation, but since Xi Jinping took power in 2012, political and security matters have been gaining importance. China’s main goal remains to build its position as the region’s key partner, creditor, investor, and contributor to their development. As such, China is now seeking to challenge U.S. interests and even gradually replace it as the key stakeholder in WANA. To secure its own key interests and reduce terrorism threats, China is also seriously considering the possibility of the use of force in the WANA region.

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№169: “Tell China’s Stories Well”: Implications for the Western Narrative

Author(s): Justyna Szczudlik / Language(s): English

Under Xi Jinping, the PRC is pursuing the campaign “tell China’s stories well”. This multifaceted program is intended to refute negative stereotypes about China and spread its narrative across the globe. Under this umbrella, China promotes its own expressions in Chinese to disseminate their true spirit, uses existing Western concepts (e.g., globalisation) and universal values (e.g., rule of law) but with a distorted meaning, and tries to establish its own concepts (e.g., a community of shared destiny) to be acknowledged worldwide. The goal is to gradually phase out the existing global narrative and replace it with Chinese ideas as a means of shaping a China-led discourse.

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№170: High Representative Federica Mogherini: Her Role and Performance in the EU Neighbourhood

Author(s): Elżbieta Kaca / Language(s): English

Federica Mogherini, the EU’s top diplomat, has strengthened coordination over EU external affairs but has not managed to make a significant impact in Europe’s closest neighbourhood. She succeeded in the speedy launch of the EU naval operation in the Mediterranean and the development of partnerships with several Sub-Saharan countries concerning migration, but in the case of the conflicts in Libya and Syria, the EU remained dependent on UN-led mediation. In relations with the eastern neighbourhood, Mogherini was side-lined by the Member States, which did not perceive her as an honest broker on Russian affairs. The next High Representative should make improvements in these areas while also following Mogherini’s path of close cooperation with the European Commission and other stakeholders.

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№171: China and the Challenges of the Fourth Industrial Revolution: Value Chains, 5G, and Emerging Markets

Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English

China has identified the ongoing digital revolution as its first opportunity in modern times to compete with other international actors, especially the U.S. The competition serves as the driving force for enhancing innovation and finding new sources of growth for the Chinese economy. The advantage of technological development is that it will allow China to become a “major cyber power,” introduce its own technological standards worldwide, raise its position in global value chains, and influence the world economy. But the process is seriously challenged by the change in China’s relations with the U.S., concerns in the EU about Chinese investments as well as domestic centralisation of power.

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№172: Future of Europe: No Common Vision on the Horizon

Author(s): Marta Makowska,Melchior Szczepanik,Jolanta Szymańska / Language(s): English

The debate about the future of Europe, reinvigorated by Brexit, has revealed important divergences between the Member States. France has largely set the agenda of the debate but failed to mobilise decisive support for most of its proposals. Despite some joint Franco-German initiatives, there is also clearly significant disagreement within the tandem. It will be difficult to find compromise on the most controversial reforms, such as those related to the eurozone and migration policy. Muddling through will probably remain the dominant feature of the integration process.

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№173: Turkey’s Soft-Power Crisis in Africa

Author(s): Jędrzej Czerep / Language(s): English

Since the 1990s, Turkey has been developing its soft power in Africa to support its economic and political expansion south of the Sahara. Schools and other institutions associated with the Fethullah Gülen movement (Hizmet) were instrumental in building Turkish-oriented local elites, raising interest in Turkish culture, and building Turkey’s image as synonymous with success. However, the fallout from the 2016 coup attempt in Ankara marked the definitive end of the synergy between Hizmet and the Turkish state. This created a new context in which Turkey’s pressures and direct interference in African governments’ affairs accompany a revision of its soft-power instruments. In times of increasing competition for influence on the continent, disillusionment about the neutrality of Turkey and other authoritarian newcomers to Africa—Russia, United Arab Emirates—raises the appeal of the EU as a partner.

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№175: The Von der Leyen Commission: Searching for Balance in Europe

Author(s): Marta Makowska,Melchior Szczepanik,Jolanta Szymańska / Language(s): English

In the increasingly politically fragmented Union, the new European Commission (EC) led by Ursula von der Leyen will be a more collegial institution, as the president finds herself obliged to share power with a trio of influential executive vice-presidents. Seeking to cement the initially fragile support for her, she built a team of commissioners with the aim of maintaining a balance in terms of the political influence of various actors and the approach to policies. With the call for a “geopolitical Commission”, she aimed to unite the bloc around the objective of boosting the EU’s role in the world. Von der Leyen’s success will depend on her ability to translate the general political balance into concrete proposals that will bridge the internal divides.

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№176: Can Aid Solve the Root Causes of Migration? A Framework for Future Research on the Development-Migration Nexus

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel,Henriette U. Erstad,Morten Bøås,Jolanta Szymańska / Language(s): English

An important dimension of the European Union’s response to the 2015 refugee and migration management crisis has been to address the root causes of irregular migration. A major tool the EU has to mitigate push factors of migration is development assistance. Yet, the literature shows that the casual relationship between aid and migration is complex and far from obvious. This article summarises the ongoing debates and major findings concerning the development-migration nexus in order to better inform policymakers about the potential risks and shortcomings of using aid in migration management. It suggests a framework for future research on what kind of assistance might work, for whom, and where.

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№177: NATO Deterrence and Arms Control Policy in a World without the INF Treaty

Author(s): Artur Kacprzyk,Łukasz Kulesa,Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski / Language(s): English

To maintain effective deterrence and internal cohesion in a post-INF Treaty world, especially in the face of the growing Russian missile threat to Europe, NATO needs to act in two areas. To enhance its military posture, the Alliance ought to quickly mobilise available defensive and offensive capabilities, plan and exercise their use, and be ready to further adjust its posture in the future. This includes studying the military rationale to deploy conventionally armed ground-launched intermediate-range missiles. To adapt its arms-control policy, NATO members should identify Russia’s most destabilising missile systems, both existing and prospective, and propose arms-control initiatives aimed at limiting them. Although the likelihood of achieving new agreements with Russia is currently low, a more proactive NATO arms-control position could help shape the discussion in the longer term and counter Russian efforts to divide the Alliance.

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