Series:PISM Policy Papers

№021: Peace and Development Efforts in Afghanistan: A Lost Decade

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English

The paper summarises the last decade in Afghanistan and points at critical mistakes made by the international community. The author argues that Western powers did not treat Afghan security and reconstruction seriously and displayed much ignorance about its regional environment—all in all causing the great opportunity to put the country on its own feet to be lost. The modest achievements in Afghanistan will be at grave risk as the West prepares to leave the country by 2014. The international commitment to Afghanistan needs to be reinvigorated before the country descends into yet another war. The analysis concludes with a set of crucial lessons learned from the Afghan conflict for future peace-and-reconstruction missions.

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№022: The European Development Fund: Perspectives and the Changing Landscape of EU-ACP Relations

Author(s): Karolina Werner / Language(s): English

The European Development Fund is arguably one of the most potent tools of the European Union’s policy towards the countries of Africa, the Caribbean and the Pacific region. As the member states and the EU institutions prepare to make a decision on the future shape and scope of the EDF, the following analysis lays out the intricacies of the EU-ACP relationship from its outset, and addresses the key elements of the debate within the decision-making and expert circles. The EDF is plagued by general inconsistency of the EU policy towards these regions, and suffers from all-too-familiar shortcomings such as extensive bureaucracy and ineffective programming of aid. Despite these challenges, the EDF has established itself as a fairly predictable and versatile instrument for channeling of aid, and one which adequately addresses the needs of most of the ACP countries. Still, some reforms, such as greater diversification between the three regions involved, could be necessary, all this while the EU member states stand by their commitments to development aid.

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№023: Towards an Enhanced Polish-Spanish Partnership

Author(s): Bartłomiej Znojek / Language(s): English

The paper argues that despite the likely preoccupation with the immediate internal challenges and broader, EU-wide concerns, Poland and Spain stand a good chance of bolstering their relationship given their credentials as ardent advocates of European integration and a positive track-record of the bilateral cooperation to date. In particular, the relationship could benefit from the further development of its institutional framework, and from recasting the dialogue on crucial matters such as European neighbourhood or European defense cooperation. While Poland and Spain may not see eye-to-eye on certain issues—the future EU budget being arguably the most prominent among them—they should still make an effort to deepen their dialogue given the high stakes on the European level.

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№024: The European Union and Brazil as Privileged Partners? Difficult Path to an Authentic Strategic Partnership

Author(s): Bartłomiej Znojek / Language(s): English

Following the creation of the EU-Brazil strategic partnership nearly five years ago, the density of contacts between the European Union and the largest Latin American country has grown steadily. However, while it looks impressive on paper given the potential of both sides, and seems like a no-brainer in the light of EU’s global ambitions and Brazil’s economic and political rise, including its status as a part of the BRICS forum, the relationship is not free from significant tensions. It is not entirely clear whether the seemingly unanimous endorsement of a multi-polar international order means the same for both partners. In addition, further deepening of the EU-Brazil partnership could have rather adverse effects on consolidating Mercosur, and EU dialogue with that bloc. It will be increasingly hard for the EU, adversely affected by the economic downturn, to gain real interest of Brazilian authorities in a truly strategic partnership, as they evidently see relations with other emerging countries as much more advantageous in carrying out own global ambitions. While the EU and Brazil will continue to consider each other as important partners, they need to carefully manage these and other incompatibilities of their relationship, lest they fail to fulfil its potential.

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№025: The European Union and India: Partners in Democracy Promotion?

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English

On February 10, leaders of the European Union and India met to take stock of the state of their strategic partnership. The agenda of the 12th EU-India Summit featured, among others, a discussion about the past year’s developments in Northern Africa and the possibilities of assisting the ongoing changes in the region. As the author points out, engaging India in this context will require a better understanding of the Indian approach to democracy support, and a frank dialogue about the differences between the EU and India in this particular area. He then goes on to explain the reasons for these divergences, and indentifies possible avenues of cooperation. The paper argues that different approaches to democracy ought to be considered as complimenting, and not necessarily contradicting each other. The EU and India can work together on some very specific issues, even if the differences turn out to be impossible to bridge.

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№026: The EU Budgetary Chess Game, the Polish Presidency and the Shadows of the Debt Crisis

Author(s): Paweł Tokarski,Patryk Toporowski / Language(s): English

The times are hardly auspicious for making tough decisions about the future of the European Union’s finances. European integration is under stress in the light of the potentially debilitating debt crisis which threatens the long-term viability of the eurozone. In addition, the negotiations over the EU’s Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF)—an arduous, seemingly routine process, with scant possibilities for bold moves and widespread awareness about the limits of the eventual compromise, yet extremely prone to politicization—have become even more protracted as new actors, most notably the European Parliament, seek to gain additional prominence. Still, the process will be largely driven by the biggest net contributors to the EU budget, namely Germany, France and the United Kingdom. Transparency could thus be a decisive feature of the negotiating process, allowing less influential Member States to hedge against the proposals undermining the solidarity which underpins the EU budget. Still, as the authors conclude, the outlook is rather pessimistic for the EU, as the stalemate hampers a more effective application of the MFF to tackle economic challenges.

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№027: Russia’s International Climate Policy

Author(s): Andrzej Turkowski / Language(s): English

The paper presents the determinants, goals and instruments of the Russian international climate policy. The author points to the pragmatism that characterizes the Russian approach to the climate change issue, and highlights the key drivers behind Russia’s stance during the recently-launched post-Durban negotiations.

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№028: Ukraine’s First Year in the Energy Community: Restart Needed

Author(s): Igor Lyubashenko / Language(s): English

Ukraine’s membership in the Energy Community has recently come under intense scrutiny because of apparent disconnect between the expectations of the Ukrainian authorities on the one side, and of the organisation’s representatives on the other. The paper points to the possible reasons for this disturbing divergence, highlighting in particular the difficulties in reforming the Ukrainian energy sector. Some of the delays in meeting the legal obligations resulting from the membership in the Community can be attributed to the ongoing negotiations with Russia over the prices of imported natural gas. Although Ukraine’s long-term, strategic interests in the area of natural gas transit and electricity production could help bridge the differences with the Energy Community, there is no room for complacency on either side. The author argues that progress towards Ukraine’s further integration with the EU in the energy field is not a foregone conclusion, and a rethinking of both the pace and the instruments of cooperation is urgently needed.

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№029: NATO Defence and Deterrence Posture: Central and Eastern European Perspectives

Author(s): Jacek Durkalec / Language(s): English

The paper offers a comprehensive overview of the positions of Central and Eastern European states vis-à-vis the NATO Defence and Deterrence Posture Review (DDPR). The outcome of the DDPR process, which has been on the Alliance’s agenda since the summit in Lisbon in 2010, will come to the front and centre of the debate in the second half of May, as leaders of NATO member states convene for the summit in Chicago. The author discusses the Central and Eastern Europeans’ approach to the question of the overall mix of NATO defence and deterrence capabilities—nuclear forces, conventional forces, and missile defence. In particular, he argues that the debate about certain aspects of the NATO defence and deterrence posture should not cease with the endorsement of the DDPR report in Chicago, but should continue in order to address the outstanding issue of non-strategic nuclear weapons based in Europe.

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№030: Full Speed Ahead? Poland in Baltic Sea Region Cooperation

Author(s): Lidia Puka / Language(s): English

The paper offers a useful overview of the factors affecting inter- and sub-national cooperation in the Baltic Sea Region (BSR). The author points to a notable absence of so-called hard security, low-consensual issues on the regional agenda, while at the same time diagnosing a long list of reasons behind limited efficacy of cooperation in tackling soft challenges. Diversity in terms of demographic and economic potential among the regional partners, varying level of socio-economic development, and different priorities assigned to the BSR make for a complex and demanding setting for policymakers. All of the key challenges facing the region—boosting trade, bridging civilisational gaps, ensuring greater coordination of environmental policies, and enhancing the interconnectivity in terms of transportation network—can be met, but will require greater political engagement, adjustment of national priorities and instruments of cooperation, as well as adequate sourcing. The paper concludes with an analysis of Poland’s possible input into a more advantageous cooperation in the BSR.

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№031: The June 17 Elections in Greece: Domestic and European Implications

Author(s): Anna Visvizi / Language(s): English

The author analyses the background of the recent parliamentary elections in Greece, and lists the key challenges facing the new government under Antonis Samaras. Greek authorities will have to perform a tough balancing act while trying to come up with a strategy to address four major problems. First, Greek economy has to start generating growth again. Second, Greece and its international partners need to renegotiate the terms of the Memorandum of Understanding that set out the conditions for external support for Greek reforms. Third, the cabinet under Samaras will have to navigate the troubled waters of domestic politics, fending off criticism from populist parties. Finally, Greece’s image has been tarnished in the recent months, hence the new government must work hard to restore the country’s credibility in Europe and in the wider world. Crucially, external actors, especially fellow members of the EU, have both the assets and the interest in boosting Samaras’ credibility, both domestically and internationally.

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№032: The Implications of Hungary’s National Policy for Relations with Neighbouring States

Author(s): Anita Sobják / Language(s): English

The paper highlights the importance of Hungary’s policy towards the Hungarian diaspora in the countries of Central and South-Eastern Europe. The author points to both discontinuities and similarities in the approach of post-Cold War Hungarian governments and political elites to the issue of so-called national policy, as well as its interplay with other strategic directions of Hungary’s foreign policy in this period, most notably Euro-Atlantic integration and good-neighbourly relations. The analysis focuses on the national policy as implemented by the current Hungarian government of the FIDESZ political party. The policy itself is rooted in the Hungarian legislation, and is reflected in the structures of the Hungarian administration. As such, its implementation has not been without considerable negative repercussions for Hungary’s relations with its neighbours but, as the author points out, in some cases the relationship remained amicable, or at least cooperative.

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№033: Central European Approaches to the Protection of Civil Nuclear Programmes

Author(s): Kacper Rękawek / Language(s): English

Security of civil nuclear programmes is not exactly front page news in Central Europe, nonetheless it deserves to be closely followed in the light of intentions to expand the use of nuclear power in the case of the Czech Republic and Hungary, or its introduction as part of the energy mix in Poland. The author diagnoses a considerable degree of assuredness about the level of nuclear security among Central Europeans, and assigns it to a relatively small size of their nuclear programmes, as well as their purely civil orientation. Security arrangements are considered to be adequate in the light of potential breaches of nuclear security either via instances of non-violent, anti-nuclear environmental activism, or the possibility of a deliberate terrorist strike.

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№034: Any Chance for Inclusive Intergovernmentalism? The Prospects for a Franco-Polish Partnership in the European Union

Author(s): Elżbieta Kaca,Krzysztof Soloch / Language(s): English

The uncertainty that is currently surrounding the EU’s political and economic future calls for new, innovative approaches to how European politics is handled. Perhaps crucially, the ongoing crisis has exposed divergences between the two most influential EU member states—France and Germany—thus creating a window of opportunity for cooperation in alignments that are either new, or which previously have not been tested in a meaningful way. The authors suggest than one of the possible avenues of cooperation would be an enhanced Franco-Polish partnership—a mutually beneficial arrangement that could provide much-needed leadership in select EU policy areas and contribute to strengthening the European project on the whole. While not necessarily a universal winning formula for the crisis-stricken EU, a closer, more focused Franco-Polish cooperation on the Common Foreign and Security Policy, the next Multiannual Financial Framework, or the future of European integration in general could serve as a testing ground for a more inclusive intergovernmental approach to EU policymaking.

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№035: Iran, Turkey and Azerbaijan: Heading Towards a Regional Crisis?

Author(s): Konrad Zasztowt / Language(s): English

The Middle Eastern map of political alliances, affiliations and animosities is being constantly redrawn, but certain elements endure. The revolutionary turmoil in the region, now on full display in Syria, together with mounting tensions over issues such as Iran’s pursuit of a nuclear weapons capability, are the most pertinent issues that are bringing to the fore the deep, structural differences inherent in the Turkish-Iranian-Azerbaijani triangle. After what seemed as a period of growing Turkish-Iranian affinity in the past decade, the relations between Ankara and Tehran are on a downward trajectory. Turkey found it impossible to continue with the policy of „zero problems with neighbours” in the light of the events in Syria—it sided with the Sunni opposition, thus antagonizing not only the regime in Damascus, but also its most valued ally, Iran. In addition, Turkey seems to have re-calibrated its position on Iran’s nuclear ambitions, using it to signal the lack of support for Tehrans anti-Western policies. In case of Azerbaijan, religious affinity with Iran seems to count less than the underlying geopolitical choices. On top of that, a secular Azerbaijan finds itself in a sharp ideological conflict with a teocratic Iran, and is deeply concerned with Iran’s anti-Israeli rhetorics and actions. Whether a regional crisis will unfold is largely dependent on the ability of all three countries to forestall the escalation of the existing problems into much graver feuds.

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№036: Belarus Before the Elections: The Struggle to Maintain the Status Quo

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English

The campaign ahead of the elections to the Belarusian parliament, which are scheduled for September 23, shows the specific nature of its political system. The main factors that distinguish Belarus from democratic countries are the marginal importance of the parliament, concentration of power in the institution of the president, the almost invisible role of the opposition and a defective system of counting votes (such as early voting), which encourages fraud and manipulation of the results. At the same time, the authorities do everything possible to maintain the status quo in the country. Not only does that mean that no single oppositional candidate has a chance to get a mandate in parliament but also that Belarusian authorities will try to avoid implementing necessary reforms, such as liberalisation of the political system or privatisation of state-owned enterprises, because they are afraid of losing power.

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№037: Energy Policy in the Baltic States—United or Separate?

Author(s): Kinga Dudzińska / Language(s): English

Energy security is a priority for Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia—three former Soviet republics that are still dependent on supplies from Russia. Although the three countries are often regarded as relatively homogeneous, their energy policy indicates visible differences and their priorities do not necessarily go together. At the same time, such small states with limited potential for large and expensive projects seem to be doomed to cooperate, especially that investments in infrastructure at the regional level are required. The author of this Policy Paper explains the differences in the energy policies of the Baltic States and elaborates on chances for coordinated efforts towards greater energy security.

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№038: Rola fundacji politycznych w promowaniu demokracji – rekomendacje dla Polski

Author(s): Kinga Brudzińska / Language(s): Polish

The author discusses the benefits associated with the activities of politically-affiliated foundations as instruments of democracy promotion. Such foundations, despite their non-governmental status, often depend on direct financial support from their political counterparts, or benefit from budgetary resources of the home country. Political foundations focus on technical and organisational support for emerging political parties in third countries, aid during electoral campaigns, or training in political marketing and public communication for individual activists. Political foundations tend to actively scrutinise the policies of the host state if they deem them dangerous or otherwise unwanted, thus leading to friction and tensions on the official level. Political foundations need to walk a fine line between their daily, statutory activities and the need to avoid being seen as influencing the domestic politics of the host state. The analysis concludes with a list of pros and cons of creating political foundations in Poland, and an attempt to identify the ways in which they could benefit the Polish democratisation agenda.

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№039: Visegrad’s Winding Road to the EU Multiannual Financial Framework 2014–2020

Author(s): Dariusz Kałan,Paweł Tokarski,Patryk Toporowski / Language(s): English

The next Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF) of the EU is taking shape amidst uncertainty about the future of the Eurozone. The crisis of the common European currency overshadows the bargaining over the MFF, and impacts the calculations of the countries constituting the Visegrad Group—the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia—or the V4, during the negotiations. Each member of the V4 has a deeply embedded interest in upholding the prominence and extent of EU’s cohesion policy in the years to come. In the light of the attempts to put a cap on this budget figure, a natural convergence of interests and positions would seem natural. Still, as authors of the analysis point out, the economic outlook of particular V4 countries, their political and economic partners of choice on the European level, as well as their respective visions of the future of European integration, are bearing heavily on their actual policies during the MFF negotiations. The V4 as a whole stands to gain only if individual members will be able to navigate the existing or emerging differences. If these differences prevail, and one of the countries breaks rank in search of a better negotiating position, the V4 is likely to arrive at suboptimal results at best.

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№040: Predictable Continuity: Ukrainian Parliamentary Elections 2012

Author(s): Igor Lyubashenko / Language(s): English

This weekend’s parliamentary elections in Ukraine will be watched closely in Europe and beyond as the voting is an important step in the preparation for the battle for presidency – currently a major power centre in the country. It can also have significant influence on Ukraine’s relations with the West. The biggest country in Eastern Europe with 46-million people population remains on the crossroads between democracy and the state run by the groups of interests. If the elections are accepted as free and fair by the international community, the EU will have to look for a constructive way to cooperate with Ukrainian authorities – writes Igor Lyubashenko.

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