Publisher: NATO Strategic Communications Centre of Excellence

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DAESH PROPAGANDA, BEFORE AND AFTER ITS COLLAPSE. COUNTERING VIOLENT EXTREMISM

DAESH PROPAGANDA, BEFORE AND AFTER ITS COLLAPSE. COUNTERING VIOLENT EXTREMISM

Author(s): Charlie Winter / Language(s): English

Keywords: Daesh media; propaganda; politics; caliphate; millenarian utopianism; military denialism; civilian issues;

This report compares two archives of official Daesh media that were compiled four years apart. It explores the nuances of the group’s worldview and tracks how external and internal situational exigencies impacted them during its formative years as a caliphate. It finds that the organisation’s media infrastructure was about one tenth as productive in mid-2019 as it was in mid-2015. The data also show that it was spending more time covering the pursuits of its global network in 2019 than in 2015. Finally, the data point towards a substantial thematic rearrangement in the organisation’s overarching propaganda narrative that manifested in it shifting its story away from millenarian utopianism and towards military denialism. In sum, the data indicate that by 2019 Daesh’s propagandists were far less productive and their aggregate product was more international and less focused on civilian issues. This shift points towards a new phase in the group’s political marketing trajectory, one focused more on survival than on expansion.

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TRENDS AND DEVELOPMENTS IN THE MALICIOUS USE OF SOCIAL MEDIA

TRENDS AND DEVELOPMENTS IN THE MALICIOUS USE OF SOCIAL MEDIA

Author(s): Jakob Willemo / Language(s): English

Keywords: Social media; malicious use of social media; manipulation of social media platforms; public opinion; influence; media space;

The malicious use of social media is a widespread phenomenon, targeting individuals, public opinion, and in some cases even the functioning of the state. In recent years, social media platforms have been abused by foreign governments, private companies, and individuals to influence the outcomes of democratic elections and to undermine public trust in the societies in which we live. Today, social media platforms are manipulated by malign actors in order to pursue their political and military goals. In other words, social media platforms have developed into an effective tool for waging information warfare. Although information warfare is nothing new, social media platforms offer a cheaper, more efficient, and less demanding stage for influencing larger numbers of people than ever before. While the social media platforms are conduits facilitating the free passage of information, the companies that own them are active participants wielding significant influence over what takes place in the social media space and, increasingly, over how we communicate, interact, and socialise in the 21st century.

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POLITICS AND PROFIT IN THE FAKE NEWS FACTORY

POLITICS AND PROFIT IN THE FAKE NEWS FACTORY

Author(s): Jonathan Corpus Ong,Jason Vincent Cabañes / Language(s): English

Keywords: Fake news factory; Politics and profit; Political trolling; Philippines; State-sponsored model; In-house staff model Advertising and PR model; Clickbait model;

The Philippines represents a national context where disinformation is becoming ever more entrenched into the political system, in spite of global attention and investment in the fight against fake news. Three years ago, a toxic election campaign headlined by misogynistic rape jokes, false papal endorsements, and imposter news websites ended with a surprise outcome that upended the entire political establishment. In the May 2019 midterm election, new interventions such as platform bans, fact-check partnerships, and digital advertising rules were introduced to curb the spread of similar tactics. Recent research discovered, however, that the digital disinformation industry has only further expanded and flourished, with digital operators controlling a more substantial chunk of the political campaign war chest.

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RUSSIA’S NARRATIVES TOWARD THE WESTERN BALKANS: ANALYSIS OF SPUTNIK SRBIJA

RUSSIA’S NARRATIVES TOWARD THE WESTERN BALKANS: ANALYSIS OF SPUTNIK SRBIJA

Author(s): . Atlantic Council of Montenegro / Language(s): English

Keywords: Sputnik Srbija; Russian influence in the Western Balkan media space; Media manipulation;

The Kremlin-sponsored Sputnik news website has been recognised as one of the primary channels of Russian influence in the Western Balkan (WB) media space, and so a comprehensive analysis was conducted to learn about its content and way of operation. This report is based on analysis of a year-long monitoring process that lasted from 1 January to 31 December 2018. The focus was on Sputnik online platform https://rs-lat.sputniknews.com that has presented information in the Serbian language since 2015 (hereafter referred to as Sputnik Srbija). The report seeks to identify the primary narratives that are advanced by the media outlet about six WB countries – Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia and Serbia, as well as the European Union (EU) and the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO).

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DECODING CRIMEA. PINPOINTING THE INFLUENCE STRATEGIES OF MODERN INFORMATION WARFARE

DECODING CRIMEA. PINPOINTING THE INFLUENCE STRATEGIES OF MODERN INFORMATION WARFARE

Author(s): Alan Kelly,Christopher Paul / Language(s): English

Keywords: Crimea; Modern information warfare; Maidan Uprising; Ukraine and the West; Russia;

In an era set to be defined by persistent contestation between states, of a nature which falls short of open conflict, Western democracies need to adapt. Strategies employed by adversaries are less likely to rely on the direct application of military power and increasingly on the opportunities afforded by new technologies to create effects, shrouded in complexity and ambiguity, in the information environment. Analysts, planners and policy makers facing these threats struggle with limited tools to understand their form and structure. As a response to this challenge, we propose an addition to the toolkit - a Taxonomy of Influence Strategies. This is a comprehensive system which attempts to identify, describe and classify the fundamental units of influence, referring to them as ‘plays’.

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MAPPING EXTREMIST COMMUNITIES: A SOCIAL NETWORK ANALYSIS APPROACH

MAPPING EXTREMIST COMMUNITIES: A SOCIAL NETWORK ANALYSIS APPROACH

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Keywords: Social networks; Malicious use of social media; Middle East-based terrorist groups; Twitter; Telegram; Online radicalisation;

Online social networks are used by everyone in our everyday lives, including by malicious actors and organisations. Previous work has characterised the specific online behaviour of Middle East-based terror groups. However, this behaviour is constantly evolving, as a response to events such as the battle of Mosul and also due to the strengthening of the platforms’ moderation rules. Terror groups target social media platforms such as Twitter, Telegram, and Discord, and while their past behavioural patterns and narrative strategies have been well documented, the adaptive nature of these groups require continuous analysis of their online presence.

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MITIGATING DISINFORMATION IN SOUTHEAST ASIAN ELECTIONS: LESSONS FROM INDONESIA, PHILIPPINES AND THAILAND

MITIGATING DISINFORMATION IN SOUTHEAST ASIAN ELECTIONS: LESSONS FROM INDONESIA, PHILIPPINES AND THAILAND

Author(s): Jonathan Corpus Ong,Ross Tapsell,Duncan McCargo,Thaweeporn Kummetha,Virot Ali,Sebastian Bay / Language(s): English

Keywords: Southeast Asian elections; Indonesia; Philippines; Thailand; Mitgating disinformation; Social media platform bans; Election integrity;

In 2019, a series of elections in the Southeast Asian countries of Indonesia, the Philippines, and Thailand highlighted the salience of digital media in political campaigns and insidious modes of electoral manipulation. Despite new legal, technical, social, and educational efforts to mitigate “fake news,” our comparative research analysis of elections in the three countries observes that digital disinformation has become further entrenched in electoral processes. We observe that a wider range of political actors and parties enlisted a diversity of digital campaign specialists and paid out “buzzers” (Indonesia), “trolls” (Philippines), and “IOs (information operations)” (Thailand) to circulate manipulative narratives discrediting their political opponents. Some politicians even fanned the flames of religious (Indonesia/Thailand) and ethnic conflict (all three) in their communities in a desperate bid to score votes.

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THE ROLE OF DEEPFAKES IN MALIGN INFLUENCE CAMPAIGNS

THE ROLE OF DEEPFAKES IN MALIGN INFLUENCE CAMPAIGNS

Author(s): Keir Giles,Kim Hartmann,Munira Mustaffa / Language(s): English

Keywords: Katie Jones; Deepfake; Malign influence campaigns; FakeApp; AI news anchor; LinkedIn;

In early 2019 Katie Jones, a young researcher based in Washington DC, set up a new profile for herself on LinkedIn. She filled in her biographical details—degrees from the University of Michigan, a present position at the prestigious CSIS think tank—and set about building her network of contacts. There was nothing unusual about a new profile being set up on LinkedIn; thousands are created every day. It was not even unusual that Katie Jones was entirely fictitious; with no checks on the identity of individuals creating these profiles, there is nothing to prevent someone from assuming any identity they choose.

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Belarus Protests: Information Control and Technological Censorship vs Connected Societies

Belarus Protests: Information Control and Technological Censorship vs Connected Societies

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Keywords: Belarus; protests; information control; technological censorship; Lukashenko; restricted access to informational channels;

The Belarusian presidential election on 9 August 2020 was a turning point in the history of modern Belarus. Disagreeing with the apparently falsified results of the vote, protesting Belarusian citizens flooded the cities around the country. Lukashenko’s response was lightning fast and brutal. In order to conceal any information about the brutality of the law enforcement structures against peaceful protesters, Lukashenko attempted to take control of the information environment and restrict access to all information channels – especially Internet resources.

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Social Media Monitoring: A Primer. Methods, tools, and applications for monitoring the social media space

Social Media Monitoring: A Primer. Methods, tools, and applications for monitoring the social media space

Author(s): Henrik Twetman,Marina Paramonova,Monika Hanley,Rolf Fredheim,Kristina Van Sant,Giorgio Bertolini,Alvin Lim,Sebastian Bay / Language(s): English

Keywords: Social media; monitoring; social interaction; global information environment; communication technologies;

For the last twenty years, the phenomenon of social media has cemented itself as the new nexus of social interaction. With billions of users across the world, hundreds of online platforms, and a myriad of digital technologies at its backbone, social media is fundamentally reshaping our understanding of the global information environment. Today, social media is essential infrastructure for personal conversation, public debate, and commercial communication. While social media provides many opportunities for unprecedented information sharing, the rapid adoption of limitless communication technologies with instant amplification and global reach has also created significant vulnerabilities. Social media have, in many cases, become a conduit for unsubstantiated information, such as rumours, hoaxes, and conspiracy theories.

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Data Brokers and Security. Risks and Vulnerabilities Related to Commercially Available Data

Data Brokers and Security. Risks and Vulnerabilities Related to Commercially Available Data

Author(s): Henrik Twetman,Gundars Bergmanis-Korats,Nora Biteniece,Rolf Fredheim,Giorgio Bertolini,Sebastian Bay / Language(s): English

Keywords: Data brokers; commercially available data; internet activity; biometric data; new technology; industry of data;

As connected individuals, part of a modern society, we generate data with everything we do. Every card-payment, website visit, browser search, social media post, and online message yields data points. Our phones register every action taken in every downloaded app; if the GPS is active they register every place we visit; and if we use biometric data monitoring they register our every heartbeat. It is virtually impossible to get an overview of the data we use and generate—data are everywhere. The overwhelming abundance of data has ushered in the ‘age of analytics’, where data informs the decisions, strategies, and activities of governments, corporations, and individuals.

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Clarifying Digital Terms. NATO StratCom COE Terminology Working Group

Clarifying Digital Terms. NATO StratCom COE Terminology Working Group

Author(s): Neville Bolt,Leonie Haiden,Julian Hajduk,Elīna Lange-Ionatamišvili,Gundars Bergmanis-Korats,Giorgio Bertolin,Robert Hobbs,Louise Marie Hurel,Charles Kriel,Federico Lucidi,Sanda Svetoka,Johannes Wiedemann / Language(s): English

Keywords: Digital technologies; digital terms; terminology; big data; learning machines; glossary; common vocabulary;

Digital technologies and means of communication have become a central part of politics and social organisation. The role of AI, big data, and machine learning is growing, as are ethical, privacy, and security concerns which these technologies bring with them. The purpose of this glossary is to encourage the use of precise and simple language that bridges the terminological divide between policymakers, soldiers, tech companies, academics, and programmers. It is at the intersection of their respective fields, that digitalisation’s potential for positive change as well as ensuing challenges can be recognised and addressed. Sharing a common vocabulary is the first step. As digitalisation continues to transform our societies, it has also influenced the language used to describe this process. Terms related to the developments and possibilities brought on by digitalisation can seem confusing. Digital vs. cyber vs. online, AI and machine learning lack distinction in popular usage and understanding. An additional layer of complexity is added by the multiplicity of language communities that exist in this field: from programmers and computer scientists, to communicators, politicians, militaries, academics, and the general public.

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Information Laundering in Germany

Information Laundering in Germany

Author(s): Belén Carrasco Rodríguez / Language(s): English

Keywords: Information laundering; Germany; information influence campaign; transnational networks; Kremlin’s influence; media;

Information laundering (IL) is a stratagem used by hostile actors within an information influence campaign. In this process, false or deceitful information is legitimised through a network of intermediaries that gradually apply a set of techniques to distort it and obscure the original source. In the context of this research, IL is leveraged by Kremlin-official or pro-Kremlin actors in a hostile information influence campaign (HIIC) to further their interests in Germany. Information Laundering represents a relatively new approach to information influence activities targeting a particular media environment. In the context of this report, IL research allows governments, national institutions and civil society to reach a deeper understanding of the activity of domestic and transnational networks that enable the spread of the Kremlin’s influence in a particular country, since it uncovers how actors gradually distort, disseminate, and legitimise a piece of information through the application of IL techniques.

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Information Laundering in Germany

Informationswäsche in Deutschland

Author(s): Belén Carrasco Rodríguez / Language(s): German

Keywords: Information laundering; Germany; information influence campaign; transnational networks; Kremlin’s influence; media;

Informationswäsche (IL, engl. Information Laundering) ist ein Strategem, das von Akteuren mit feindlichen Absichten bei Kampagnen zur Informationsbeeinflussung eingesetzt wird. Die Bezeichnung leitet sich vom Begriff der Geldwäsche ab und weitet die Metapher auf Nachrichten aus. Das bedeutet, ein Netzwerk von Vermittlern legitimiert falsche oder trügerische Informationen. Dafür wird schrittweise eine Reihe an Methoden eingesetzt, um die Informationen zu verdrehen und die ursprüngliche Quelle zu verschleiern. Der Schwerpunkt dieser Arbeit liegt auf Informationswäsche, die von kremlfreundlichen oder offiziellen Akteuren des Kreml ausgeht. Im Zuge aggressiver Kampagnen zur Informationsbeeinflussung sollen die eigenen Interessen in Deutschland vorangebracht werden. Informationswäsche ist ein relativ neuer Ansatz bei Maßnahmen zur Informationsbeeinflussung, die auf eine bestimmte Medienlandschaft abzielen. Diese Arbeit deckt auf, wie Akteure mithilfe von Methoden der Informationswäsche nach und nach Informationen verdrehen, verbreiten und legitimieren. Dadurch können Regierungen, staatliche Institutionen und die Zivilgesellschaft besser verstehen, welche Aktionen heimischer und transnationaler Netzwerke zur Ausweitung des Einflusses des Kreml in einem bestimmten Land beitragen.

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Deepfakes – Primer and Forecast

Deepfakes – Primer and Forecast

Author(s): Tim Hwang / Language(s): English

Keywords: Deepfakes; artificial intelligence; intelligent machines; machine learning; technology; fake media; disinformation;

“Artificial intelligence”—the broad category of study exploring the creation of intelligent machines—has enjoyed a resurgence in the last decade, driven by a combination of research breakthroughs, a massive expansion in access to data, and advances in computational hardware. New developments and applications have captured the imagination of policymakers and the public at large, inspiring both hopes and fears around artificial intelligence and its future prospects. Among the many areas of concern around the technology, perhaps one of the most widely discussed has been the threat posed by “deepfakes”: synthetic audio, images, and video generated with artificial intelligence. Deepfakes are often strikingly realistic and sometimes challenging to distinguish from the genuine article. Artificial intelligence has been used to produce deepfakes depicting prominent political figures from Donald Trump to Vladimir Putin saying a variety of things they never in fact said.

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Online Influence and Hostile Narratives in Eastern Asia

Online Influence and Hostile Narratives in Eastern Asia

Author(s): Hannah Smith / Language(s): English

Keywords: Eastern Asia; online influence; hostile narratives; geopolitical competition; hostile information activities; social media; fake news; disinformation;

Eastern Asia — which we will define as including East and Southeast Asia — is a region of increasing geopolitical competition with many racial, cultural and societal fractures. With the rapid expansion of inexpensive internet access, these fractures and tensions mean that many states in the region are both vulnerable to, and a source of, hostile information activities that are being used to achieve strategic goals both inside and outside the region. This report documents examples of hostile information activities that have originated in Eastern Asia and have been targeted in the following countries: • Taiwan; • The Hong Kong-based protest movement; • West Papua; • The Philippines.

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Social Media Manipulation 2020. How Social Media Companies are Failing to Combat Inauthentic Behaviour Online

Social Media Manipulation 2020. How Social Media Companies are Failing to Combat Inauthentic Behaviour Online

Author(s): Sebastian Bay,Anton Dek,Iryna Dek,Rolf Fredheim / Language(s): English

Keywords: Social media in 2020; social media manipulation; social media companies; coordinated manipulation campaigns; online behaviour; social media platforms;

Antagonists, from foreign governments to terror groups, anti-democratic groups, and commercial companies, continually seek to manipulate public debate through the use of coordinated social media manipulation campaigns. These groups rely on fake accounts and inauthentic behaviour to undermine online conversations, causing online and offline harm to both society and individuals. As a testament to the continued interest of antagonists and opportunists alike to manipulate social media, a string of social media companies, researchers, intelligence services, and interest groups have detailed attempts to manipulate social media conversations during the past year. Therefore, it continues to be essential to evaluate whether the social media companies are living up to their commitments to counter misuse of their platforms. In an attempt to contribute to the evaluation of social media platforms, we re-ran our ground-breaking experiment to assess their ability to counter the malicious use of their services. This year we spent significant effort to improve our methodology further, and we also added a fifth social media platform, Tik-Tok, to our experiment.

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Information Laundering in the Nordic-Baltic Region

Information Laundering in the Nordic-Baltic Region

Author(s): Belén Carrasco Rodríguez,Nika Aleksejeva,Sebastien Cubbon,Tihomira Doncheva,Benjamin Heap,Rueban Manokara,Thomas Elkjer Nissen,Merete Voetmann / Language(s): English

Keywords: Nordic-Baltic region; information laundering; external information influence; domestic media; information manipulation; building resilience against hostile information influence;

The penetration of external information influence in a domestic media ecosystem is largely enabled by the interactions between foreign and domestic actors. The term ‘Information Laundering’ describes how these actors manipulate and amplify manipulated information in a particular media environment and the techniques utilised for such purposes. This report evaluates to what extent Kremlin-official and pro-Kremlin actors leverage Information Laundering techniques to conduct influence campaigns in the Nordic-Baltic countries and examines the role that domestic and foreign actors play in enabling these campaigns to reach target audiences. For this purpose, the NATO Strategic Communications Centre of Excellence developed a theoretical model of Information Laundering presented in this study. The model was applied to a comparative analysis of 32 Information Laundering cases, linked to the activity of 570 single actors in the eight Nordic-Baltic countries. Through researching Information Laundering in the region, this report aims to support national institutions in their goal to build resilience against hostile information influence operations.

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Fact-checking and Debunking. A Best Practice Guide to Dealing with Disinformation

Fact-checking and Debunking. A Best Practice Guide to Dealing with Disinformation

Author(s): James Pamment,Anneli Kimber Lindwall / Language(s): English

Keywords: Misinformation; disinformation; fact-checking; debunking; information environment; deceiving the public; media;

Misinformation and disinformation disseminated online are a relatively recent phenomena, as are initiatives developed to limit the effect of such content. Questions remain over the effectiveness of two key counter-measures, fact-checking and debunking. This report makes a start in examining best practice: what it is, who does it and how it might be evaluated. Today’s information environment is increasingly characterised by the spread of misinformation and disinformation. Misinformation refers to verifiably false information that is spread without any intent to mislead. Disinformation refers to the creation, presentation and dissemination of verifiably false information for economic gain or to intentionally deceive the public. Whether it be published in a news article or an online blog, broadcast from a newsroom or government press conference, misleading and false information is frequently produced and reproduced, both intentionally and unintentionally.

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Abuse of Power: Coordinated Online Harassment of Finnish Government Ministers

Abuse of Power: Coordinated Online Harassment of Finnish Government Ministers

Author(s): Kristina Van Sant,Rolf Fredheim,Gundars Bergmanis-Korats / Language(s): English

Keywords: Finland; government ministers; coordinated online harassment; social media; Twitter; politically motivated abuse; online hate speech;

This report is an explorative analysis of abusive messages targeting Finnish ministers on the social media platform Twitter. The purpose of this study is to understand the scope of politically motivated abusive language on Finnish Twitter, and to determine if, and to what extent, it is perpetrated by inauthentic accounts. To this end, we developed a mixed methodology, combining AI-driven quantitative visualisations of the networks delivering messages of abuse with a qualitative analysis of the messages in order to understand the themes and triggers of abusive activity. We collected Twitter data between 12 March and 27 July 2020, a period spanning the state of emergency declared in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. This report is informed by the findings of three recent Finnish studies, one of which investigated the extent and effects of online hate speech against politicians while the other two studied the use of bots to influence political discourse during the 2019 Finnish parliamentary elections.

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