China’s Approach to the Russia–Ukraine War: Geopolitics, Interests, and Perceptions
China’s Approach to the Russia–Ukraine War: Geopolitics, Interests, and Perceptions

Summary/Abstract: This study examines the main characteristics of China–Ukraine political and economic relations in their historical development, taking into account the perceptions and interests of both countries’ leadership, as well as the views of international relations and geopolitical experts. China officially claims neutrality and emphasises its commitment to peace in accordance with international law. However, its discourse and behaviour reveal a strategic inclination towards Russia. Although China has not endorsed the Russian invasion, its 2023 peace plan was formally grounded in United Nations principles and its own legal doctrine. This apparent duality highlights the tension between normative positioning and geopolitical pragmatism in China’s foreign policy. While Beijing refrains from formally endorsing Russia’s actions, its discursive and strategic choices indicate a prioritisation of systemic power considerations over the defence of Ukraine’s sovereignty in practical terms. But Beijing is also concerned with preventing any nuclear escalation in this conflict and has constantly maintained its no-first-use stance regarding Russia’s military activities. At the same time, China’s Russia-friendly rhetoric and strategic alignment with Moscow suggest that Beijing prioritises balancing against the United States and NATO over the practical defence of Ukraine’s sovereignty. Nevertheless, the prolongation of the conflict in Europe does not serve China’s economic interests, indicating that Beijing could adopt a more active role in promoting an effective peace settlement.

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