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EAP Think Bridge - № 2017-11 -  Eastern Partnership Summit: compromise for the sake of continuation
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EAP Think Bridge - № 2017-11 - Eastern Partnership Summit: compromise for the sake of continuation

Author(s): Richard Giragosian,Vugar Bayramov,Arseniy Sivitsky,Lasha Tughushi,Natalia Sterkul,Oleksii Krysenko,Vitaliy Martynyuk,Olga Chyzhova / Language(s): English

The Brussels Eastern Partnership summit did not bring neither breakthroughs, nor surprises, putting sustainability and stability of the member countries at the forefront. So far, it seems, the relations with the European Union will be reduced to the lowest common denominator of the six partner states. The European ambitions of the Association Agreements signatories were not support¬ed in the EU. No “carrots” after the visa-free travel and the free trade zone were promised to Ukraine, Georgia, and Moldova. No words on the in-depth cooperation with the lead¬ers of the initiative in the “Eastern Partnership Plus” format were mentioned in the final Declaration. Moreover, all attempts to introduce the possible, yet remote aspiration for the EU membership made the opposite effect. Instead, the European partners suggested the neighbors should pay more attention to the fulfillment of the commitments they had already undertaken. Only Armenia was quite satisfied with the summit results as it signed the new Com¬prehensive and Enhanced Partnership Agreement. Azerbaijan and Belarus negotiate on elaborating the similar basic agreements. What is the future of the Eastern Partnership policy? Is the EU ready to work with its neighbors at “different speeds”? The results of the Brussels summit analyzed by Vitali Martynyuk. More about the summit outcomes significance for each of the EAP states can be found in our monthly reviews. //// CONTENT: ARMENIA: RESTORING & REPAIRING RELATIONS WITH THE EU // AZERBAIJAN: ADJUSTING STATE BUDGET TO OIL PRICES // BELARUS: NEW CHALLENGES IN FOREIGN POLICY // GEORGIA: THRILLER WITH TERRORISTS IN TBILISI // WILL MOLDOVA MEET THE EXPECTATIONS? // UKRAINE: ANTICORRUPTION NOVEMBER // ANALYTICA: EASTERN PARTNERSHIP SUMMIT: COMPROMISE FOR THE SAKE OF CONTINUATION // EAP THINK BRIDGE ROUND TABLE: ECONOMY IN THE EASTERN PARTNERSHIP: PARTNERS, COMPETITORS OR BYSTANDERS?

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EAP Think Bridge - № 2017-06 - Bridging divide: forging cooperation and fostering collaboration
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EAP Think Bridge - № 2017-06 - Bridging divide: forging cooperation and fostering collaboration

Author(s): Richard Giragosian,Olga Chyzhova,Vugar Bayramov,Arseniy Sivitsky,Lasha Tughushi,Lina Grau,Sergiy Gerasymchuk / Language(s): English

However the different ways and motives the six East¬ern Partnership countries may have, one way or another they are moving towards strengthening their coopera¬tion with the European Union. The systematic reforms and the ability to defend their national interests while resisting the outside pressure are the two essential components for the further successful development in this direction. It is not unexpected that the countries in the region are in the different stages of EU engage¬ment, with prominent leaders being Georgia, Ukraine and Moldova. That is why it is extremely important not only to establish the dialogue between the civil society and the reformers in each country of the region, but also to have the efficient communication between the countries sharing the best cases. It is exactly the subject matter of Armenian expert Richard Giragosyan’s monthly analytics. In May the relations of the countries in the region with their Western partners were not univocal. Georgia, on the one hand, became a political center, having hosted the NATO Parliamentary Assembly. However, on the other hand, it became involved in an international scandal due to the case of an Azeri opposition journalist kidnaped in Tbilisi. The world leaders reassured Ukraine that the sanctions against Russia will not be lifted. Moreover, Kyiv itself imposed some new sanctions on the aggressor’s business, and social networks “VKontakte” and “Odnoklassniki”, as well as “Yandex” search engine were blocked. In Yerevan the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe of¬fice, the last one in the Southern Caucasus, was closed at the behest of Baku. Yet Armenia and Azerbaijan faced new escalation of the Nagorno- Karabakh conflict – missile attacks. Moldova did not receive the financial aid promised by the EU, due to the issue of its democratic standards, in particular the deteriorating situation with media independence. At the same time Belarus is still seeking balance to counter the Russian influence not only in the West, but also in the East. In the course of the “One Belt, One Road” Forum, taking place in Bejing in May, Minsk signed an agreement with China on the cooperation in economy, as well as in security and military spheres. More details on these and other important events in the region are pro¬vided in our monthly reviews. //// CONTENT: ARMENIA WEATHERS THE STORM // AZERBAIJAN: NEW LOW IN RELATIONS WITH RUSSIA // BELARUS: CHINA’S MOST SPECIAL PARTNER // GEORGIA: ON THE WAY TO NATO // MOLDOVA: AUTHORITIES FORCING A MIXED ELECTORAL SYSTEM // UKRAINE: «AWAY FROM MOSCOW» TO ASSOCIATION WITH EUROPE // ANALYTICA: BRIDGING DIVIDE: FORGING COOPERATION AND FOSTERING COLLABORATION // EAP THINK BRIDGE ROUND TABLE: EASTERN EUROPE AND SOUTH CAUCASUS FACING NEW SECURITY ENVIRONMENT

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EAP Think Bridge - № 2017-01 - Armenia in transition: turning point or tipping point?
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EAP Think Bridge - № 2017-01 - Armenia in transition: turning point or tipping point?

Author(s): Richard Giragosian,Vugar Bayramov,Arseniy Sivitsky,Lasha Tughushi,Victoria Bucătaru,Sergiy Gerasymchuk / Language(s): English

We are building a bridge between the Eastern Partnership countries — the intellectual one. Unified by the Eastern Partnership policy, the countries are mainly focused on the cooperation with European institutions. At the same time, they disregard the substantial potential of the partnership within the region. After all, despite the geographical proximity, shared past, and, to the great extent, similar difficulties, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine extremely differ from each other in terms of their political and social situation. Nevertheless, the neighbours take it slow to learn from each other’s success or failures. And sometimes they just do not get accurate information from neighbouring countries, especially given the widespread influence of Russian propaganda. Bringing together expert communities of the Eastern Partnership, EaP Think Bridge Initiative aims to tackle this problem. This bridge between the leading think tanks of the region is an opportunity to receive the latest first-hand analytics. We are pleased to present the result of this cooperation – the monthly EaP Think Bridge Digest. The first issue opens with the analysis of the situation in Armenia on the threshold of the parliamentary elections in April 2017. Considering the escalation of conflict in Nagorny Karabakh and the uneasy situation in the country, the elections do not seem to be a predictable culmination of the well-ordered and planned transition to a parliamentary form of government anymore. An important part of each digest issue is a short analytical overview of the month in six countries. It is a kind of photograph of the domestic political situation, economy, and foreign policy of the country. No unnecessary information included, only the most important data from local experts, and a clear scheme of analysis that enables to trace the dynamics of events. Let’s start with the overview of 2016, which was the year of upheaval, change, and hardship for the region. Currently, with the support of the F. Ebert Foundation Regional Office “Dialogue Eastern Europe”, our bridge is built between the following analytical centres: Centre for Economic and Social Development (Azerbaijan), Regional Studies Centre (Armenia), Centre for Strategic and Foreign Policy Studies (Belarus), Liberal Academy Tbilisi (Georgia), Foreign Policy Association (Moldova), and Foreign Policy Council “Ukrainian Prism” (Ukraine). But we are open for cooperation, and we are looking forward to your ideas for the “Guest Expertise” section. //// CONTENT: ARMENIA: CHALLENGES, CHANGES AND CHOICE // AZERBAIJAN: BELT-TIGHTENING AND BALANCING FOREIGN POLICY // BELARUS: DIALOGUE WITH THE WEST AND THE NEW COMPONENTS IN THE STATE IDEOLOGY // GEORGIA: PRO-WESTERN POWERS LOSE SUPPORTERS THOUGH EU MEMBERSHIP HAS NO ALTERNATIVE // MOLDOVA: NEW PRESIDENT & OLD ISSUES // UKRAINE: BETWEEN RUSSIAN AGGRESSION AND INTERNAL CHALLENGES // ANALYTICA: ARMENIA IN TRANSITION: TURNING POINT OR TIPPING POINT?

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Cemeteries and Dying in a Multi-religious and Multi-ethnic Village from the Danube Delta
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Cemeteries and Dying in a Multi-religious and Multi-ethnic Village from the Danube Delta

Author(s): Sorin Gog / Language(s): English

This paper focuses on the way the new post-socialist cosmology is restructuring religion, shaping the religious mentalities of contemporary Romania. I am trying to investigate this by analyzing the ways the different local politics of ethnic and cultural identities remodel the perspectives on after-life and burial practices. My research aims at analyzing the symbolic architecture of the discourse that surrounds and penetrates the dead body. It focuses also on the way the cemetery is transformed into a micro-world that reflects the religious, ethnic and cultural struggles of the new post-socialist world. Along this line of reasoning I chose for research the multi-ethnic and multi-religious village of Sch., situated in the south-eastern part of Romania. Old-Orthodox Lipovenians (divided into two antagonistic religious communities, popovtsi and bezopopovtsi) and their eternal rivals, Orthodox Romanians, have to co-habit the village and share the local resources with the newly emerged community of Lipovenian-Romanian Adventists. What seems even harder to do is to share the after-life and cemetery space, where the borderlines between these four communities become even stronger. The instrumentalization of the symbolic architecture of after-life that penetrates the dead body and the fragmentation of the cemetery space that accompanied this process mirror the important transformations of the Romanian social system and the struggle to enact the different post-socialist politics of ethnic and cultural identities.

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Dimensiunea regională a societăţii, diversitatea etnoculturală şi organizarea administrativ-teritorială în România
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Dimensiunea regională a societăţii, diversitatea etnoculturală şi organizarea administrativ-teritorială în România

Author(s): József Benedek,Ibolya Török,Csongor Máthé / Language(s): Romanian

Public debates on the regional dimension of societal organization are plagued by a series of stereotypes originating in the lack of adequate knowledge about this phenomenon. Precisely because of this, the aim of this study is to present in a systematic and analytic manner the theoretical concepts, working methods and their possibilities of application in solving some technical aspects related to the efficient management of territory and the related issue of great actual relevance in Romania, the organization of development regions. We do not intend to elaborate an optimal solution to the problem, as we believe that no such recipe exists; conversely, we wish to contribute to the debate by sketching a number of scientifically grounded alternative proposals, the effective realization of which depends on the actual political context. While the material may seem too technical and difficult to digest without a solid background in the field, the specialized language was needed in order to meet certain requirements of scientific analysis.

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Vestsplejnovanje Ukrajine
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Vestsplejnovanje Ukrajine

Author(s): Jan Smoleński,Jan Dutkiewicz / Language(s): Serbian

Izraz westsplaining, vestsplejnovanje, smišljen je po uzoru na kovanicu iz savremene feminističke teorije mansplaining (man + explain) kojom se opisuje prikriveno seksistički manir snishodljivog, patronizujućeg muškog objašnjavanja ženskih prava i problema ženama. Izraz delimično odgovara terminu balkanizam Marije Todorove, odnosno orijentalizam Edvarda Saida – ukratko, vestsplejnovanje je kad zapad, arogantno i neovlašćeno, objašnjava istoku njegove probleme i prilike. Prim.prev.

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International Assistance and Media Democratization in the Western Balkans: A Cross-National Comparison
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International Assistance and Media Democratization in the Western Balkans: A Cross-National Comparison

Author(s): Tarik Jusić,Kristina Irion / Language(s): English

This is the concluding report of a project aiming to enhance the knowledge and understanding of conditions and factors that influence the creation of sustainable and functional media institutions in the democratizing countries of the Western Balkans, especially in contexts where there is a strong presence of international assistance programs and conditionality mechanisms. The project covers four countries that emerged from former federal Yugoslavia, i.e. Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Macedonia and Serbia, as well as a fifth country, Albania. This report summarizes and compares the country and subject-matter-specific contributions with the aim of exploring the nexus between the democratic transformation of the media and international media assistance as constrained by the local political conditions. Although the countries of the Western Balkans share significant social, political, historical and economic traits, the region’s recent trajectory has not been very coherent. Since the collapse of socialism in the 1990s, all five countries are undergoing a difficult transition to democracy and a free market economy. They have in common a post-authoritarian legacy, relatively small territories and weak economies. However, these similarities should not obstruct the recognition of important differences in political traditions, local cultures and ethnic composition of the population throughout the region. In the past, political traditions of statehood differed significantly, characterised by periods of bloom and decline as well as external influences, notably from the Ottomans and the Austrian empire. The region’s conflict-ridden history has inspired the term Balkanization, which is widely used to describe a process of geopolitical fragmentation. After the disintegration of Yugoslavia and war with the Serbian hegemon, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo were founded as modern states. Macedonia was also affected by a limited conflict between its two majority peoples – Macedonians and Albanians. NATO undertook extensive military interventions against Serb forces in Bosnia and Herzegovina in 1995, and in Kosovo and Serbia in 1999. Albania alone went through a peaceful transition albeit the country took in many war refugees, mainly from Kosovo. All of the countries in the focus of this project are multi-ethnic but their composition varies to a significant degree. In Albania and Kosovo, Albanians are by far the majority people but there is a significant Serb minority in the latter. Serbia’s dominant majority are Serbs (83 percent of the population). In contrast, Bosnia and Herzegovina is the home of three constituent peoples (Bosniaks, Serbs and Croats) and in Macedonia ethnic Macedonians and Albanians coexist, among others. Today, out of these five Western Balkan countries two are in the antechamber of the European Union (EU). For some time already Macedonia and, recently, Serbia have had candidate status but the pre-accession negotiations are open-ended. Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo and Albania are still potential candidate countries, and thus further away from their ultimate aim to accede to the EU. Striving for EU membership requires from these Western Balkan countries to comply with its democratic and market economy standards (the so-called ‘Copenhagen Criteria’). Today EU conditionality is a major driver of reforms in the region.

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Building Media Systems in the Western Balkans: Lost between Models and Realities
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Building Media Systems in the Western Balkans: Lost between Models and Realities

Author(s): Katrin Voltmer / Language(s): English

When dictators fall, the rhetoric of ‘revolution’, ‘liberalisation’ or ‘new era’ often disguises the enormous difficulties that lie ahead. Beginning with the fall of the Berlin Wall that marked the end of the Cold War, democracy has spread around the world in breath-taking speed. However, as the ‘third wave’ comes of age, it becomes ever more evident that bringing down dictatorships is one thing, but building sustainable democratic institutions and media systems is quite another. The working papers produced within the project “Development of Functional Media Institutions in Western Balkans – A Comparative Study” provide vivid evidence of the many obstacles, errors and set-backs – but also of the achievements – that accompany the attempt of transforming media systems that hitherto have served the needs of an authoritarian regime into democratic institutions. Each of the working papers covering one of the five successor states of former Yugoslavia describes in much detail the policies that have been implemented to rebuild media institutions and journalistic practices in an environment that is marred not only by the legacy of socialism, but also by the trauma of war, deep societal divisions and economic decline. Given the importance of the Western Balkans for the stability and prosperity of Europe, considerable efforts have been made by the international community to build democracy in the region. Thus, besides describing the problems of transforming media systems in post-authoritarian countries, the working papers of this project also provide unique insights into the mechanisms and consequences of international media assistance in emerging democracies. In spite of the undeniable progress that has been made, the accounts given here are also rather sobering. The policies pursued by international donors often lack long-term sustainability and in some cases exacerbate rather than ameliorate existing problems. Taken together, the significance of this working paper series goes far beyond the region of the Western Balkans. The outstanding scholarship and in-depth knowledge brought together in these working papers also help to better understand the dynamics of media transformation in other emerging democracies around the globe. While some of the problems the media in the countries of former Yugoslavia are struggling with are unique for the region – for example the extremely small media markets of countries whose populations range between less than two million (Kosovo) and some seven million (Serbia), many others show striking similarities with developments in other new democracies. For example, issues of persistent political interference into journalistic decision-making, low levels of journalistic professionalism, political parallelism and sharp polarisation of public communication are common features around the globe. Moreover, the emphasis on the work of media assistance organisation described in these working papers further highlights the difficulties that arise when transplanting the institutions and norms of democracy as practiced in established (mainly western) countries to contexts that either do not have any, or only little, experience with democratic governance or are part of cultural and historical traditions that have little in common with western traditions. These apparent discrepancies between the established democracies of the West and the fledgling semi-, partial or defective democracies of the ‘third wave’ have provoked the question whether democracy and its essential ingredient of a free press can be exported to other contexts. As elsewhere in the post-communist world of Eastern Europe, policy makers in the countries of former Yugoslavia have looked out for role models in established democracies as guidance for the reconstruction of their media systems. Hallin and Mancini’s models of media systems have become an influential framework not only for academic research, but also for policy choices to design media systems in emerging democracies. The three models proposed by Hallin and Mancini identify the key dimensions of media systems of the regulatory arrangements and behavioural patterns that organise state-media relationships, media markets, journalistic professionalism and the relationship between the media and the main cleavages in a society (‘political parallelism’). The resulting ‘ideal types’ are the ‘liberal model’ that is characterised by low levels of state regulation, commercialism and objectivity and neutrality as key journalistic norm; the ‘democratic corporatist model’ that includes a strong public service element and the attempt to accommodate different interest and groups; and the ‘polarized pluralist model’ that is dominated by partisan journalism and a close relationship between politics and the media. Hallin and Mancini’s analysis, which focuses exclusively on Western media systems, reveals that the ‘liberal model’ is predominant in Anglo-Saxon countries, the ‘democratic corporatist model’ can be mainly found in the welfare states of Northern Europe and the ‘polarized pluralist model’ covers mainly the Mediterranean countries. Even though Hallin and Mancini emphasise that these models are empirical descriptions that do not imply any evaluation of the quality and adequacy of the kind of public communication each of the models provides, the ‘polarized pluralist’ model is widely seen as deficient and least desirable. Recent studies that have applied Hallin and Mancini’s models to non-western countries and in particular the new democracies of the ‘third wave’ have come to the conclusion that it is the ‘polarized pluralist’ model that best characterises cases outside the Western world. However, it appears implausible that eighteen Western media systems are diversified across three different models, whereas the rest of the world is lumped together into just one. Besides the conceptual problems this lack of variance throws up, the classification as ‘polarized pluralist’ usually also implies a normative judgment that marks these non-western and emerging media systems as immature and flawed. In this concluding working paper I want to explore in some more detail the empirical and normative underpinnings of democratic media systems, in particular the ‘polarized pluralist’ model. The paper aims to address some of the theoretical and normative issues involved in transforming post-authoritarian media systems, which have been described and analysed in the country studies of this working paper series. The discussion starts by introducing the concept of ‘social constructivism’ as an effective theoretical tool to understand processes of institutional change in processes of democratic transition. Two key elements of media systems serve as examples to demonstrate the ‘social construction’ of norms and practices in different social and political contexts: partisanship and pluralism. While partisanship is seen as a deficiency of media systems, albeit widely practiced, pluralism is valued as an indispensible norm of democratic media, yet difficult to achieve.

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Looking for Shortcuts? Assistance to - and Development of - Public Service Broadcasting in Bosnia-Herzegovina, Serbia, Kosovo, Macedonia, and Albania
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Looking for Shortcuts? Assistance to - and Development of - Public Service Broadcasting in Bosnia-Herzegovina, Serbia, Kosovo, Macedonia, and Albania

Author(s): Mark Thompson / Language(s): English

If we were asked to invent a form of media assistance which combined the maximum number of challenges, it would be hard to imagine anything more formidable than the task of establishing public service broadcasters in transitional (newly democratic) states. When those states are recovering from profound trauma or systemic breakdown, the odds against success become even greater. And when the trauma involved interethnic bloodletting on a vast scale, in which neighbouring countries were complicit, and which was ended only by external intervention by yet other countries, the chances of decisive success become incalculably small. Let me list some challenges – with no certainty that the list is complete. A public service broadcaster (PSB) produces, commissions, and disseminates a range of contents to a universal (non-niche) audience. It has to be enabled and supported by an appropriate legal and regulatory framework, one which entrusts it with a public service mission, establishes suitable mechanisms for funding and accountability while protecting it from interference by parliament and government. It needs to provide a range of programs that “inform, educate and entertain” (the famous mantra) all sectors of the population, aiming for excellence in all strands, skilful enough to blend more rarefied output with populist material, juggling the schedule to reach large audiences with high-quality news and information. It needs to be funded by a mechanism that engages the public (such as the licence fee), on a generous scale and with a stability that allows it to fulfil its mission and to invest for the future. It needs to be technically well-equipped and resourced. If it cannot deliver excellent programmes to the entire population through broadcasting and online, the public is unlikely to wish to sustain it. From all this, it follows that the providers of such assistance need to be prepared to engage on many fronts – journalistic, technical, institution-building, political – and to spend lavishly, with no expectation of rapid results. They need to have the stamina for a lengthy – perhaps endless – political and diplomatic struggle with local elites who will be reluctant to support a project that threatens to take away an important lever of influence; and with a media industry that is likely to resist this non-commercial intruder. They will need to be ready to persuade media professionals and the wider public why they should support a kind of media output which may be unknown in their own language. They will need to invest in institution-building and professionalization: training journalists, editors and managers to fulfil their distinctive mandates in a PSB. They need to provide technical assistance at a high level for producing and disseminating content on several platforms. The prospect of a strong institution devoted to public service provision in the media provokes more or less acute anxiety and resistance among the political class. The preparation and adoption of a suitable legal and regulatory framework – one that provides political and public accountability on one hand, and denies the scope for political manipulation on the other – calls for appropriate international expertise, sensitively offered, and also for dialogue with law-makers, media professionals, and civil society groups. Finally, the suppliers of such assistance must be prepared for a long and patient (but also vigilant) engagement which may fail even after the actual steps have been taken. For laws can be enacted and not implemented. Journalists can be trained only to find they are unable or disinclined to exercise their new skills in the given conditions. Outlets can be brought into existence but then fail to find a loyal audience. Codes of ethics and self-regulatory mechanisms can be introduced and fail to make an impact on actual practice. This having been said, it is obvious why the endeavour to establish PSBs in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia, Kosovo, Macedonia, and Albania faced immense difficulties. The country studies in this project, “Development of Functional Media Institutions in Western Balkans – A Comparative Study”, confirm this in useful ways. They also deepen our understanding of the ways in which assistance to PSBs links with assistance to other sectors of the media.

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Međunarodna pomoć i demokratizacija medija na zapadnom Balkanu: naučene lekcije
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Međunarodna pomoć i demokratizacija medija na zapadnom Balkanu: naučene lekcije

Author(s): Not Specified Author / Language(s): Bosnian

Ovaj policy memo sumira ključne nalaze komparativnog istraživačkog projekta koji je ispitivao vezu između međunarodne pomoći medijima i demokratske transformacije medija u pet zemalja zapadnog Balkana: Albaniji, Bosni i Hercegovini, Kosovu, Makedoniji i Srbiji. Svrha je projekta doprinos boljem razumijevanju faktora koji mogu utjecati na rezultate programa međunarodne pomoći i mehanizama kondicionalnosti usmjerenih na razvoj održivih i funkcionalnih medijskih institucija u zemljama koje prolaze kroz proces demokratizacije. Osim toga, nalazi pružaju uvid u implikacije transponiranja uvoznih institucionalnih modela u medijske sisteme društava u tranziciji na zapadnom Balkanu, te kao takvi mogu u budućnosti poslužiti kao potka sličnih programa pomoći.

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Newsletter - 04/2002
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Newsletter - 04/2002

Author(s): Sead Turčalo,Edward P. Joseph,Selmo Cikotić,Srđan Šušnica,Harun Karčić / Language(s): English

1. Editorial - Time of uncertainty. 2. “We need a fresh start in the US, in the Balkans, in Europe, and in the world, with new leadership”. 3. Managing Migration in Bosnia and Herzegovina. 4. Sarajevo’s Head in a Bear’s Mouth. 5. Nagorno-Karabakh: Melting down the “frozen conflict”.

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Newsletter - 04/2002
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Newsletter - 04/2002

Author(s): Sead Turčalo,Edward P. Joseph,Selmo Cikotić,Srđan Šušnica,Harun Karčić / Language(s): Bosnian

1. Uvodnik - Vrijeme neizvjesnosti. 2. Potreban nam je novi početak, s novim liderstvom u SAD-u, na Balkanu, u Evropi i svijetu. 3. Kako upravljati migracijama u Bosni i Hercegovini. 4. Sarajevo – Moskva: Glava u raljama medvjeda. 5. Nagorno-Karabah: Otapanje "zamrznutog konflikta".

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How the War in Ukraine Impacts NATO Policy in the Black Sea Region
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How the War in Ukraine Impacts NATO Policy in the Black Sea Region

Author(s): Filip Bryjka / Language(s): English

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has increased the strategic importance of the Black Sea region for the security of NATO’s Eastern Flank. The activity of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, energy blackmail, and blocking of sea lines of communication pose a threat to the Alliance and its partner states (Moldova, Ukraine, Georgia). Although NATO’s ability to operate in the Black Sea is limited by the Montreux Convention, the Alliance can enhance deterrence credibility by increasing its military presence in the region and expanding cooperation with partners.

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Russia’s Peacekeeping Operation in Nagorno-Karabakh: Goals and Challenges
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Russia’s Peacekeeping Operation in Nagorno-Karabakh: Goals and Challenges

Author(s): Agnieszka Legucka / Language(s): English

During a meeting in Moscow on 11 January, the representatives of Russia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan discussed the situation after the ceasefire in the Nagorno-Karabakh (NK) conflict. The peacekeeping force of the Russian Federation located in NK remains the guarantor of the cessation of the fighting. The practice of Russian conciliation so far differs from that of UN peacekeeping operations and strengthens Russia’s military position in the region. A challenge for it will be Turkey’s growing ambitions in the South Caucasus, as well as the lack of an agreed status for NK, which in the future may lead to the resumption of military operations in this territory.

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Rosyjska demonstracja siły na granicy z Ukrainą i na okupowanym Krymie
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Rosyjska demonstracja siły na granicy z Ukrainą i na okupowanym Krymie

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): Polish

Organizując w kwietniu br. ćwiczenia wojskowe i sygnalizując gotowość zaatakowania Ukrainy, Rosja chciała wymusić na niej powrót do rozmów w ramach procesu normandzkiego, a jednocześnie sprawdzić reakcję państw zachodnich, zwłaszcza USA. W wymiarze militarnym był to ważny element testu stanu gotowości bojowej rosyjskich sił zbrojnych na zachodnim kierunku strategicznym, czego kolejną odsłoną będą wrześniowe ćwiczenia „Zachód”. Mimo wycofania większości rosyjskich jednostek do miejsc stałej dyslokacji w regionie utrzyma się napięta sytuacja.

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Consequences of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Central Asia
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Consequences of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Central Asia

Author(s): Arkadiusz Legieć / Language(s): English

The economic crisis in Central Asia resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic will degrade the security situation in the region. Among the consequences of the recession will be the intensification of anti-government protests and increased ethnic tensions, added migration pressure from the region and greater activity of terrorist organisations. By using Russia’s passivity towards the pandemic, China will seek to increase its influence in the sphere of security in Central Asia.

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The Pandemic as an Impulse for the Development of New Technologies in Sub-Saharan Africa
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The Pandemic as an Impulse for the Development of New Technologies in Sub-Saharan Africa

Author(s): Jędrzej Czerep / Language(s): English

A deep recession is projected for Sub-Saharan Africa in 2020 as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the market for new technologies providing solutions helpful during the health crisis, is developing dynamically. In the medium term, the research and development sector will gain importance and become attractive for investments, also for Polish companies.

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Russia Annexes Four Ukrainian Regions
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Russia Annexes Four Ukrainian Regions

Author(s): Szymon Zaręba / Language(s): English

Russia has completed the annexation of the Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions, which belong to Ukraine. Their annexation to Russia is an escalation of the conflict and a blatant violation of international law without legal consequences. Countries supporting Ukraine should underline the illegality of Russia’s actions to persuade developing states that have so far been ambivalent in their stance towards the war to side with Ukraine.

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Seventh Summit of the Three Seas Initiative, in Riga
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Seventh Summit of the Three Seas Initiative, in Riga

Author(s): Kinga Dudzińska / Language(s): English

On 20-21 June, the 7th Summit of the Three Seas Initiative (TSI) was held in Riga, attended by representatives of all countries involved in this format. They focused on actions to increase the effectiveness of the TSI and the competitiveness of the region, but also discussed security issues and a commitment to Ukraine, which has been granted participating partner status in the initiative. The importance of TSI cooperation with the U.S. and Germany is also growing. During the summit, the Polish-Latvian Chamber of Commerce was unveiled.

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Truce in Nagorno-Karabakh
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Truce in Nagorno-Karabakh

Author(s): Arkadiusz Legieć / Language(s): English

Armenia and Azerbaijan have concluded a truce ending the war in Nagorno-Karabakh, under the auspices of Russia. The agreement constitutes Armenia’s capitulation and provides for the division of the disputed territory on the terms of the victorious Azerbaijani side. This is a diplomatic success for Russia, which forced both sides of the conflict to stop fighting and accept the peace plan.

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