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We are pleased to announce the release of the joint PISM - FIIA report: Still Awake: The Beginnings of Arab Democratic Change, edited by Timo Behr (FIIA) and Patrycja Sasnal (PISM). With the deluge of focused policy analyses and daily news from the Middle East, the report attempts to look at the changes in the Arab world in a long-term and clearly structured perspective along with unorthodox conclusions. It examines five cases of political transition in the Arab world—Egypt, Libya, Morocco, Syria and Yemen—and summarizes the events so far and provides country-by-country timelines. Another distinct aspect of the report is that it has been produced by two major think tanks from European countries that do not have vital interests in the Middle East: Poland and Finland. Apart from the chapters authored by the editors it also features contributions from Hanna Ebeid (ACPSS, Egypt), Sylvia Colombo (IAI, Italy) and two Polish diplomats, Stanisław Guliński and Jakub Sławek.
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Regardless of whether the referendum on Iraqi Kurdistan’s independence takes place as planned on 25 September, its result is known: most Iraqi Kurds will vote in favour of independence. Depending on how the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) uses the result, a negative scenario—the outbreak of violence and further disintegration of Iraq—is still more probable than a positive one that would lead to incremental, peaceful negotiations with the central authorities in Baghdad on greater Kurdish independence. The pressure from regional allies of the Kurds, the U.S., EU, and the UN, seems to be intense enough to stop the Iraqi Kurds from unilaterally declaring independence even if they go ahead with the referendum.
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Recent protests in Belarus pose a challenge for the authorities, because along with slogans calling for improved social conditions, which appeared for the first time since the 1990s, the demonstrators have increasingly formulated political demands. So far, the Belarusian authorities have reacted in a limited manner by imposing administrative sanctions almost only on the opposition activists. In the near future, the intensity of the demonstrations will probably continue and may turn massive. Violations of human rights by Belarusian authorities is possible. Moreover, new events may prompt Russia to engage in the country directly.
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The 2016 U.S. presidential election showed that the fight for voters on social media may have resulted in the spread of false information, propaganda and disinformation. In Germany’s upcoming election campaign, a similar scenario may unfold. To prevent it, the German government intends to take preventive measures, but against new forms of online threats they may prove insufficient.
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Reports published by American intelligence confirm Russian special services’ interference in the 2016 presidential campaign. Russia used cyberoperations, media and other material to discredit Hillary Clinton to decrease her chances of success in the election and improve Donald Trump’s prospects. Russia’s ambitious operation will have profound consequences for the new U.S. administration and its foreign policy, and for American intelligence agencies. Appointments in the Trump administration are coinciding with ongoing investigations into some of the new president’s advisors’ ties to Russia, and with two U.S. Senate panel inquiries on American intelligence failures and mistakes in cyberdefence.
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Turkey’s domestic and foreign policy after the failed coup raises concerns for the European Union and the United States. Current developments in Turkey increase the political costs of Western leaders’ closer cooperation with President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. At the same time, Turkey accuses its allies of hypocrisy and a lack of understanding. Thus, relations between Turkey and its Western allies remain at an impasse, which could force Turkish decision-makers to look for alternative solutions in the political and security spheres. This constitutes a challenge for the EU and the United States, especially in the face of a deterioration of relations with Russia and the migrant crisis.
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The manipulated presidential election of August 2009 has provided new rationale for increasingly negative assessments of the situation in Afghanistan. The Afghans’ growing mistrust of the authorities and the administration looms, alongside the insurgents’ activities, as the country’s gravest problem. The sources of the state’s illness include not only the dismal economy and a lack of security, but a dysfunctional political system divorced from the country’s social realities. The system breeds corruption and conflicts and obstructs the discharge of the state’s fundamental functions. It follows that much of Afghanistan’s instability has internal political roots which, unless removed, will render enduring improvement of the country’s situation impossible.
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In October, protests broke out in Lebanon following a proposal to introduce new taxes. The demonstrations, which were unprecedented in uniting members of all religious groups in Lebanon and led to the resignation of Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri, increased the chances the state will make economic reforms and fight corruption. The protesters demand new elections, which are highly unlikely because Hezbollah holds the dominant position in the government and has rejected this idea. A stable situation in Lebanon is in Poland’s interest as it provides aid to the country and Polish soldiers take part in the UNIFIL mission.
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W październiku w Libanie wybuchły protesty wywołane propozycją wprowadzenia nowych podatków. Bezprecedensowy charakter demonstracji, które zjednoczyły członków wszystkich grup wyznaniowych w Libanie i doprowadziły do rezygnacji premiera Sada al-Haririego, zwiększa szansę na reformy gospodarcze i walkę z korupcją. Protestujący domagają się nowych wyborów, które jednak są mało prawdopodobne ze względu na sprzeciw dominującego w rządzie Hezbollahu. Ustabilizowanie sytuacji leży w interesie Polski, która przekazuje Libanowi środki na pomoc rozwojową, a jej żołnierze biorą udział w misji UNIFIL.
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W USA rozpoczął się proces z udziałem tureckiego biznesmena Rezy Zarraba, który pomagał Iranowi w omijaniu amerykańskich sankcji. Przyznał się on do winy i został głównym świadkiem prokuratury. Sprawę krytykują tureccy politycy, obawiający się ujawnienia ich roli w tych działaniach. Proces pobudzi antyzachodnią retorykę w Turcji i pogłębi kryzys w stosunkach turecko-amerykańskich. Może także uderzyć w turecką gospodarkę ze względu na rzekomy udział państwowego banku Halkbank w procederze. Przeciągające się trudności w relacjach Turcja–USA są wyzwaniem dla jedności NATO.
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Unia Europejska pracuje nad stworzeniem wykazu pozaunijnych rajów podatkowych. Ma on zapobiegać unikaniu opodatkowania przez korporacje. Może się jednak okazać nieskuteczny w walce z transferem nieopodatkowanych zysków poza UE. Polska, jako państwo tracące nawet do 10 mld euro rocznie na unikaniu płacenia CIT, może dołączyć do grupy państw najaktywniej zabiegających o zacieśnianie współpracy w tej dziedzinie.
More...Mogićnost skokovitih projmena malih ekonomija u uslovima pandemije korona virusa
POSSIBILITY OF RAPID CHANGES IN SMALL ECONOMIES IN CONDITIONS OF THE CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC
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The need to combat drug smuggling from Syria to other Arab countries has contributed to their leaders’ decision to normalise relations with Bashar al-Assad in order to convince him to curb the practice. The dismantling of the Assad-run captagon production and smuggling network is also becoming a priority of Western countries’ Middle East policy due to the increasing flow of the drug into Europe as well.
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The Belarusian authorities continue to suffer the consequences of rigging the 2020 presidential elections and their support for Russian aggression against Ukraine, which have resulted in a significant reduction in political and trade contacts with Western countries. To maintain internal stability, the regime is stepping up repression and attempting to militarise society by portraying external threats. Although the risk of regime collapse is not high, the EU should be prepared to increase its support for the democratisation of Belarus.
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After the Russian invasion on Ukraine, which begun on 24 February 2022, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo and the Western Balkans region as a whole, once again became a focus of international attention. There is almost no relevant report or discussions at which Bosnia and Herzegovina is not identified as a location of possible conflict.After the Russian invasion on Ukraine, which begun on 24 February 2022, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo and the Western Balkans region as a whole, once again became a focus of international attention. There is almost no relevant report or discussions at which Bosnia and Herzegovina is not identified as a location of possible conflict. For more than a decade the US administration has left Bosnia and Herzegovina in the care of the European Union (EU), which has more than evidently missed the historic opportunity to make important steps forward towards a prosperous BiH. Not just that such steps have not been made but the EU has created in BiH a situation identical to that in Ukraine in the eve of the Russian invasion. The sequence of moves by EU officials towards BiH indicates a high risk of corruption, just as in the case of the possible imposition of the BiH Election Law.
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Political corruption in Lebanon traces its roots to the re-assembling in the post-civil war era, which entrenched a realm of politics dominated by war lords and militia-like mentalities operating through a sectarian discourse. The waste resulting from “confessional governance” costs Lebanon 9% of GDP each year. 1 In the early 1990s, “Lebanese political bosses either coopted or gutted institutions such as unions, professional associations and opposition parties. Public schools and hospitals were defunded.” Today, many Lebanese do not send their children to public schools or hospitals. Sukleen, the company contracted by the government to collect waste in Beirut and Mount Lebanon charges 4x more per ton of waste disposed in landfills compared to providers in the UK. 2 Nearly 40% of electricity is produced by private generators established during the civil war and partially owned by various politicians today, profiting close to $1 billion a year. Electricite du Liban, the public electricity company collects payments for only half of the power it produces.
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