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Between co-operation and membership. Sweden and Finland’s relations with NATO

Author(s): Justyna Gotkowska,Piotr Szymański / Language(s): English

Sweden and Finland’s membership in NATO would significantly improve the level of security in the Baltic Sea region in the long-term by changing the politico-military imbalance that is currently in Russia’s favour. However, it is unlikely that Stockholm and Helsinki will change their non-alignment policy in the coming years. They will rather focus on enhancing politico-military co-operation with NATO. This has grown in importance to both countries in recent years in line with rising uncertainty in the region. The Swedish and Finnish wish for more substance in their military relations with NATO will however be met with increasing limitations as allied activity in the Baltic Sea region is focusing on collective defence and the two countries are not member states. // Despite the positive effect Sweden and Finland’s cooperation with NATO exerts on the region’s security, it also has negative implications. It does not eliminate the uncertainty about the scope of the two countries’ co-operation with the alliance in the case of a military conflict. It offers Stockholm an illusory sense of security, slowing down the pace of investments in defence; and for Helsinki it is rather an element of its deterrence policy towards Russia than a genuinely considered alternative.

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Painful adaptation. The social consequences of the crisis in Russia

Author(s): Jan Strzelecki / Language(s): English

The Russian economy has experienced what has proven to be the most painful crisis for society since Vladimir Putin became President of the Russian Federation for the first time. The crisis has worsened the financial situation of all classes of Russian society due to the high inflation rate and a decrease in real wages. It has severely impacted the standards of living of the most politically active segments of the middle class residing in big cities. For a large portion of society the crisis implies a permanent degradation and the need to focus on physical survival in a situation of poverty and extreme poverty. Crisis caused the decline in the social mood, what sometimes triggers isolated economically-motivated protests. Most of the time, society chooses not to manifest its discontent but to adapt to the new reality by focusing on individual survival strategies and limiting consumption. The government’s tactic aimed at minimising the likelihood of further protests mainly involves stepping up the repressive nature of the system and bolstering official propaganda. This is contributing to a progressing atomisation of society and hampering society’s self-organisation.

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Georgian dilemmas. Between a strong state and democracy

Author(s): Marek Matusiak / Language(s): English

Since its 'Rose Revolution' of 2003, Georgia has become the most spectacular example in the CIS of the export of a Western economic policy model: an example of success in building up efficient state structures, a state which was not broken by losing a war with Russia, and which still retains strong ties with the West. The strength of the Georgian state lies in its very determined ruling elite, which, thanks to considerable help from the US and the EU, has in a very short time completely reformed the state. At the same time, however, the merging of the political elite with the state, and the personalisation of state institutions, have created a series of problems. // Georgia expects parliamentary elections in October this year and presidential elections in 2013. These elections will be a multidimensional test of the state that has been built up over the last decade: of its stability, the state of its ruling elite, and the political maturity of its public. Despite the complex international situation, including an openly hostile attitude from Russia and the West's diminished interest in Georgia since 2008, its course and outcome will depend above all on the Georgian people themselves.

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A captive island: Kaliningrad between Moscow and the EU

Author(s): Jadwiga Rogoża,Agata Wierzbowska-Miazga,Iwona Wiśniewska / Language(s): English

The Kaliningrad region can be called a 'captive island', because of its specific geopolitical location - it is part of the Russian legal, political and economic space, yet it is geographically separated from the rest of the Russian Federation, and it is particularly open to co-operation with its neighbours in the European Union. Moscow is trying to compensate the region for its separation, offering it financial support and economic privileges.At the same time, it is sensitive to any potential challenges to Russia's territorial integrity - and the centre's desire for control over the region often limits the latter's potential for cooperation and internal development. This report presents the situation in the region, and is intended to help develop a model for its effective regional co-operation with its EU neighbours.

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The Gas Target Model for the Visegrad 4 Region

Author(s): Sergio Ascari / Language(s): English

The similarity of issues and geographical proximity have led the Visegrad 4 countries (V4) to undertake closer collaboration in natural gas policy, notably by agreeing on a common security of supply strategy, including regional emergency planning, and a common implementation of the Gas Target Model (GTM) that European regulators have proposed for the medium-long term design of the EU gas market, and which has been endorsed by the Madrid Regulatory Forum. As a contribution to this collaboration, the present paper will analyse how the GTM may be implemented in the V4 region, with a view to maximize the benefits that arise from joint implementation. A most relevant conclusion of the GTM is that markets should be large enough to attract market players and investments, so that sufficient diversity of sources may be reached and market power indicators are kept below dangerous levels. In most cases, this requires physical and/or virtual interconnection of present markets, which is also useful to achieve the required security of supply standards, as envisaged in the Regulation 994/2010/EC.

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Greater Europe. Putin's Vision of the European (Dis)integration

Author(s): Marek Menkiszak / Language(s): English

On several occasions since 2001 Vladimir Putin has raised the concept of ‘Greater Europe’, a partly-integrated common space comprising mainly Russia and the European Union. This concept has never been recast into a detailed political programme. While it has been championed as‘a Europe without dividing lines’, the concept would in practice permanently split Europe into two geopolitical blocs – the Western bloc of the European Union, with Germany in the dominant role, and the Eastern bloc, consisting of the emerging Eurasian Union, with Russia in a hegemonic position. In recent years Russia has undertaken a number of initiatives aimed at implementing some elements of the concept. However, most of these have failed to become reality. In this context, we should expect Russia’s policy to focus on implementing its priority project of Eurasian integration, based on the structures of the Customs Union/the Eurasian Union. The Greater Europe project, on the other hand, will be postponed until the time when, as Moscow believes, a weakened EU will be ready to accept Russian proposals.

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Germany on Russia. Yes to links, no to rapprochement

Author(s): Anna Kwiatkowska-Drożdż / Language(s): English

The German media have been correctly describing the atmosphere between the Chancellor's Office and the Kremlin as the chilliest in years. Various factors have laid bare the fact that the strategic partnership between Germany and Russia is at best currently undergoing a 'technical pause’: the underwhelming outcomes of the German-Russian intergovernmental consultations in the autumn of 2012 and of Chancellor Merkel's meeting with President Putin during the Hanover fair in the spring of 2013, as well as the way in which the EU dealt with the Cyprus debt issue and, finally, the support that Germany has extended to the anti-presidential protests in Ukraine. Meanwhile, the priorities of Germany's foreign and economic policy have changed considerably, not only as a result of the eurozone crisis, but also, even more importantly, because the attention of German business and politics has been shifting to the so-called neue Gestaltungsmächte, or new regional powers. German politicians increasingly believe that Russia should not be offered new methods or mechanisms of co-operation. Firstly, because the existing ones have not been fully utilised, and secondly, because Germany at this stage seems to have no idea of what the long-term strategy of co-operation with Putin's Russia should be.

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Niemcy wobec Rosji. Powiązania - tak, zbliżenie - nie

Author(s): Anna Kwiatkowska-Drożdż / Language(s): Polish

Obecnie klimat relacji Urząd Kanclerski–Kreml trafnie określany jest przez niemieckie media jako najchłodniejszy od lat. Zarówno niemiecko-rosyjskie konsultacje międzyrządowe jesienią 2012 roku oraz spotkanie kanclerz Angeli Merkel z prezydentem Władimirem Putinem podczas targów w Hanowerze wiosną 2013 roku, jak i sposób rozwiązania przez UE problemu zadłużenia Cypru czy też w końcu poparcie przez Niemcy antyprezydenckich protestów na Ukrainie wyraźnie pokazują, że w najlepszym razie możemy mówić o „przerwie technicznej” w partnerstwie strategicznym Niemiec i Rosji. Jednocześnie widać daleko idące zmiany w priorytetach niemieckiej polityki zagranicznej i gospodarczej, spowodowane nie tylko kryzysem w strefie euro, ale przede wszystkim przesuwaniem uwagi niemieckiego biznesu i polityki na tak zwane neue Gestaltungsmächte (nowe potęgi regionalne). Niemieccy politycy coraz częściej uznają, że nie należy proponować Rosji nowych metod i instrumentów współpracy. Po pierwsze dlatego, że dotychczasowe nie zostały jeszcze skonsumowane, po drugie ze względu na brak pomysłu w RFN na nową długofalową strategię współpracy z Federacją Rosyjską pod rządami Putina.

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Południowy Korytarz Gazowy. Azersko-turecki projekt w rozgrywce Rosji i UE

Author(s): Aleksandra Jarosiewicz / Language(s): Polish

The Southern Gas Corridor is a system controlled by Azerbaijan and Turkey of three complementary gas pipeline projects at various stages of implementation. The crisis in relations between Russia and the EU against the backdrop of Ukraine has made the Southern Corridor once again in the interest of both players. Brussels sees it as an opportunity for real diversification of gas supplies and a way to strengthen its position towards Russia. Moscow, in turn, by proposing Turkey and Greece to participate in the Turkish Stream gas pipeline project, is changing the energy map of regional projects, which indirectly affects the projects of the Corridor. This raises concern in Azerbaijan, which is trying to maneuver between the interests of Moscow and Brussels. // The Southern Gas Corridor, although controlled by Azerbaijan and not by any of the players involved in the crisis, is transforming into an element of geopolitical competition. Its further fate will depend not only on Baku's determination, but also on factors generated by the changing context of its implementation.

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Ramzanistan. Russia's Chechen Problem

Author(s): Maciej Falkowski / Language(s): English

The political activity and growing independence of Chechnya’s leader Ramzan Kadyrov raises questions about his loyalty and the possibility of his openly renouncing his servitude to Moscow. Such a scenario seems unlikely because of the dependence of Kadyrov’s regime on Russia. He is burdened by his republic’s financial dependence, the stain of collaboration and the crimes committed on his own people, and so his regime cannot exist without Moscow’s support. However, Kadyrov’s dependence on Moscow and the apparent stability of the situation in Chechnya do not mean that a lasting peace has been established there. The current plan for governing the republic and the relationship between Moscow and Grozny is a temporary solution, based not on durable solutions, but on the situational convergence of the Kremlin and Kadyrov’s interests. A change of government in the Kremlin, or to an even greater degree a domestic crisis in Russia which weakens its position in the Caucasus, would mean the fall of Kadyrov’s regime, and the reactivation of pro-independence rhetoric in Chechnya.

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A region with special needs. The Russian Far East in Moscow’s policy

Author(s): Szymon Kardaś / Language(s): English

Although in the 1990s the Russian Far East was not an important region in Russian central government’s internal policy, when Vladimir Putin assumed the presidency it was declared strategically significant. However, Moscow has been unable to generate a tangible stimulus to the region’s development so far. This is partly due to the systemic problems existing in Russia as a whole: the lack of a consistent concept of economic development and the ineffective governance system, and on the other hand, of purely local barriers: staffing problems, the decentralised energy system and the limited engagement of foreign investors. // At present, there is no risk of the region’s marginalisation like in the 1990s. However, it appears that political reintegration of the region with the centre of the federation (tighter institutional control from Moscow) and the status of a stable raw material base for Asian countries, currently represents the maximum development potential of the Russian Far East.

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Fortress Kaliningrad. Ever closer to Moscow

Author(s): Maria Domańska,Szymon Kardaś,Marek Menkiszak,Jadwiga Rogoża,Andrzej Wilk,Iwona Wiśniewska,Piotr Żochowski / Language(s): English

The Kaliningrad Oblast is a Russian exclave separated from the Russian Federation by the territories of Poland and Lithuania (both of which are EU and NATO member states) and of Belarus. It is the only part of Russia that has a border with Poland and Lithuania. Its geopolitical location makes Kaliningrad Oblast an important Russian outpost in the northern part of Central Europe. It is therefore strategically important for Russia, as well as for Poland and Lithuania and the entire region. For this reason, the Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW) considers monitoring the political, social, economic, energy, security and military situation in the Kaliningrad Oblast to be one of the priority areas of its analytic work.

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The Free State of Bavaria. The end of the CSU’s sovereign duchy?

Author(s): Kamil Frymark / Language(s): English

The Christian Social Union (CSU) has ruled Bavaria continuously for sixty years. The CSU’s domination of the state’s political scene, together with its influence on federal policies through its partnership with the CDU in the Bundestag, has made the party one of the most effective groups in Europe. This was confirmed in the election to Bavaria’s Landtag in October 2018, which the CSU has won once again. At the same time, the party is being confronted by other conservative groupings, mainly Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), which has a similar profile to the CSU in several aspects. This, combined with the outflow of similarly sized groups of voters to the AfD and to the Greens, as well as to Freie Wähler, means the CSU is facing a new challenge that involves creating a comprehensive political agenda without losing the party’s conservative identity. The purpose of this report in to present the place the CSU occupies on the political map of Germany and the importance of this grouping for Bavaria. It discusses the changes happening both within the CSU and in Bavaria itself and the possible scenarios for the development of the party and of the state. To study these processes, the author has mainly used the methodology of observing political developments and analysing documents published by the German government, as well as Bavaria’s laws and documents compiled by the CSU. This has been complemented by interviews with German experts.

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Wolny Kraj Bawaria. Koniec udzielnego księstwa CSU?

Author(s): Kamil Frymark / Language(s): Polish

W Bawarii nieprzerwanie od sześćdziesięciu lat rządzi Unia Chrześcijańsko- Społeczna (CSU). Dominacja CSU na landowej scenie politycznej oraz jej wpływ na politykę federalną poprzez wspólną frakcję z Unią Chrześcijańsko- -Demokratyczną (CDU) w Bundestagu uczyniły z tej partii jedno z najbardziej skutecznych ugrupowań w Europie. Potwierdziły to wybory do parlamentu związkowego Bawarii w październiku 2018 roku, które CSU po raz kolejny wygrała. Jednocześnie partia jest konfrontowana z innymi ugrupowaniami konserwatywnymi, przede wszystkim Alternatywą dla Niemiec (AfD), która ma w kilku aspektach zbliżony profil do CSU. Zarazem odpływ podobnie licznych grup wyborców do AfD i do partii Zielonych, a także do Wolnych Wyborców stawia CSU przed nowym dylematem stworzenia szerokiej oferty programowej bez utraty konserwatywnej tożsamości. Celem opracowania jest przedstawienie miejsca CSU na mapie politycznej RFN oraz znaczenia tego ugrupowania dla Bawarii. Zarysowano zmiany zachodzące zarówno w CSU, jak i kraju związkowym, wskazano także możliwe scenariusze rozwoju partii oraz landu. Do zbadania tych procesów wykorzystano przede wszystkim metodę obserwacji wydarzeń politycznych oraz analizę niemieckich dokumentów rządowych, aktów prawnych landu Bawarii oraz dokumentów CSU. Przeprowadzono także rozmowy z niemieckimi ekspertami.

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Kłopotliwa inwestycja. Białoruska Elektrownia Jądrowa w Ostrowcu

Author(s): Joanna Hyndle-Hussein,Szymon Kardaś,Kamil Kłysiński / Language(s): Polish

Od dekady w Ostrowcu na Białorusi trwa realizacja projektu pierwszej w tym kraju elektrowni jądrowej. Rozpoczęcie inwestycji było możliwe dzięki podpisaniu w 2012 roku międzyrządowego kontraktu z Rosją, która zapewnia niemal całkowite jego finansowanie i dostarcza technologię. Elektrownia w Ostrowcu jest pierwszym w Europie przypadkiem budowy całkowicie nowej siłowni jądrowej, zainicjowanym po katastrofie w Czarnobylu w 1986 roku. Choć Białoruska Elektrownia Jądrowa, jak formalnie nazywa się projekt, powstaje zaledwie 200 km od granicy Polski, inwestycja ta rzadko jest zauważana przez media polskie i unijne, nie wywołała również szerszej dyskusji na temat kwestii związanych z bezpieczeństwem. Jedynym krajem, w którym elektrownia w Ostrowcu budzi duże kontrowersje, jest Litwa. Ostrowiec jest tam nie tylko przedmiotem debaty, ale też kluczowym zagadnieniem w stosunkach Litwy z państwami sojuszniczymi – UE i NATO. Stanowisko Litwy wynika z lokalizacji białoruskiego obiektu, położonego niecałe 50 km od Wilna, oraz obaw litewskich ekspertów, że w trakcie jego realizacji naruszane są międzynarodowe standardy bezpieczeństwa. Dzięki zabiegom Wilna białorusko-rosyjska inwestycja pojawiła się w agendzie międzynarodowej.

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Priceless friendship. The Kremlin’s support for Vladimir Putin’s cronies

Author(s): Iwona Wiśniewska / Language(s): English

Since March 2014, the Russian economy has been functioning under the impact of the sanctions imposed on Russia by the United States, the European Union and a number of other Western states in reaction to Moscow’s aggression towards Ukraine and its annexation of Crimea. The sanctions have created many restrictions on economic co-operation between the Russian Federation and Western states. The diplomatic sanctions have been the least painful economically, although they have hit Russia’s international prestige, with the exclusion of Moscow from the G8 grouping of the world’s most influential states, the suspension of its accession negotiations with the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, and the decision by Western leaders to refrain from official contacts with the Russian leadership during the initial period. The sanctions have also barred Russia’s access to international finance; for example, the World Bank and all its agencies have suspended the financing of new projects in Russia, and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development has taken a similar decision. The Russian economy has also faced sectorial sanctions, such as limits on access to capital markets for the largest state-owned banks in Russia and several state-owned oil and defence companies. The ban also covered exports of arms and dual-purpose materials to Russia, as well as selected technologies and services in the oil extraction sector.

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Bosna v chorvatských národně-integračních ideologiích 19. století

Author(s): Petr Stehlík / Language(s): Czech

The work comprehensively characterizes and assesses the status and role of Bosnia in Croatian national integration ideologies, which greatly contributed to the formation of modern Croatian nation in the 19th century (Illyrism, Yugoslavism, “Pravaštvo“). The text is written from a historical perspective and based on the comparative analysis of political and literary sources of the time. Although Bosnia has been a subject of interest for practically all generations of Croatian politicians, no similar work has been written so far, describing the transformations and constant ideas about the historical, political and national status of Bosnia, outlining the creation of the image of Bosnia and its inhabitants in the Croatian milieu.

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Politicization in the Natural Gas Sector in South-Eastern Europe: Thing of the Past or Vivid Present?

Author(s): Martin Jirušek / Language(s): English

"In the last decade, there has been a number of mutual accusations of politicization of energy supplies between Russia and the West. These accusations came on heels with the general worsening of mutual relations between these two blocks. The biggest concerns have been related to gas supplies that were in the centre of the most serious supply crisis in January of 2009. The southeastern European states sustained the hardest blow as all Russian gas supplies flowing through Ukraine were stopped. On top of that, the impact on these states was more severe than in other parts of Europe due to their import dependency and structure of economies. In this book, the author addresses the question whether Russia really misuses gas supplies for its policy goals and what are the conditions for such use. Based on 13 case studies, the author examines whether Russia, through the state-owned company Gazprom and its subsidiaries, subscribes to the so-called strategic approach to energy policy. In other words, whether these companies serve as foreign policy tools of its homeland government."

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26.03 €

České předsednictví Rady EU – most přes minulost

Author(s): Petr Kaniok / Language(s): Czech

The book analyzes the Czech EU Council Presidency from the first half of 2009. The book consists of twelfe chapters describing and analyzing all aspects of Czech EU Presidency. The Presidency is analyzed in wide context, including case studies on preceeding French EU Council Presidency and suceeding Swedish EU Council Presidency.

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Russia's Footprint in the Western Balkan Information Environment: Susceptibility to Russian Influence

Author(s): Sanda Svetoka / Language(s): English

Since 2019 the NATO Strategic Communications Centre of Excellence (StratCom COE) has been analysing Russia’s influence in the information environment of the Western Balkans (WB). This report is the final piece of the project. It summarises the findings of the previous reports and then goes on to explore and assess the perceptions and attitudes of WB populations with regard to Russian influence activities in the WB media space. In 2020, the NATO StratCom COE published four reports investigating Russia’s tools of influence in the WBs, focusing primarily on the media landscape. Within the framework of the project Russia’s Footprint in the Western Balkan Information Environment, researchers analysed Russia’s interests in the area and its influence toolbox, and identified the vulnerabilities that make the Western Balkan countries susceptible to external manipulation. The project also identified narratives promoted by the Kremlin regarding the WBs and examined the role of local WB media in spreading those narratives. The project researchers have concluded that the Western Balkan region is not in Russia’s immediate sphere of interest; however, the Russian government considers the region a useful and easily accessible arena in which to undermine the EU and NATO. Structural vulnerabilities and societal and political divisions are exploited through cost-effective methods such as information campaigns, influencing local politicians, or even subversive activities such as hampering unity in Montenegro as it was moving toward NATO membership.

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