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MINORITY REPRESENTATION AND MINORITY LANGUAGE RIGHTS

Author(s): / Language(s): English

The conference entitled ‘Minority Representation and Minority Language Rights’ (MIREMIR), which has been organized in co-operation with the Department of Juridical Sciences and European Studies of the Sapientia Hungarian University of Transylvania, the Romanian Institute for Research on National Minorities, the European Studies Department of the University of Amsterdam and the European Consortium for Political Research Standing Group on Federalism and Regionalism, has covered two important topics of the minority issues, trying to find an answer for the above formulated question. One of these topics is concerning the problem of minority representation, involving issues related to autonomy and minority self-government, electoral politics and parties. On the other hand, as we can see in this volume, the problem of language rights, of language policies and of the real-life practices of European minorities living inside the EU or in countries willing to become member states of the EU was the second important topic of the conference.

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Russia’s best enemy. Russian policy towards the United States in Putin’s era

Author(s): Marek Menkiszak / Language(s): English

Relations between Russia and the United States are characterised by an asymmetry against Russia, whose expectations vis-à-vis the US remain unmet. The dynamics of Russia’s policy towards the US in the last sixteen years has been one of cyclic fluctuations. The recurrent scheme starts with a normalisation and positive developments in mutual relations at the onset of each new US president’s term, and end with an escalation of tensions and a crisis at the end of each presidency. Russia is too weak to be recognised by the United States as an equal partner or opponent, but too strong to be willing or able to accept the status of an inequitable, tactical ally of the US. Moreover, Moscow has hardly anything to offer the US in a positive sense, apart from possibly limiting the negative impacts of its policies on Washington’s interests. Making predictions about Russian-American relations at this moment is very risky. In the most likely scenario, the traditional pattern will again be repeated with Donald Trump’s new administration. However, that does not mean that Russia will inevitably suffer a strategic defeat, as Moscow may take advantage of the further weakening of the United States and the West.

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W pogoni za globalizacją. Niemieckie relacje gospodarcze z krajami BRIC

Author(s): Konrad Popławski / Language(s): Polish

The author decided to include Russia in the analysis, even though German-Russian relations have a much longer tradition than Germany's relations with the other BRIC countries. Moreover, German-Russian relations due to their location OSW STUDIES 09/2012 6 OSW REPORT 11/2013. Russia's geopolitical issues cannot be analyzed solely on the basis of economic indicators, because apart from economic considerations, they are also influenced by political issues and security aspects, completely different than in the case of China, India or Brazil. However, a discussion of Germany's economic relations with Russia and their juxtaposition with the trends present in relations with Brazil, India and China will allow for a better assessment of the changes that are taking place in the perception of Russia by German elites. It may also establish a new perspective for analyzing transformations in German-Russian relations and assessing whether strategic political relations translate into the development of economic relations

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Relacje Unia Europejska – Wielka Brytania po ewentualnym Brexicie. Stanowiska Niemiec, Francji, Włoch, Hiszpanii i Polski

Author(s): / Language(s): Polish

W obliczu niepewnego wyniku brytyjskiego referendum Unia Europejska powinna przygotować się na ułożenie swoich relacji z Wielką Brytanią na nowo już jako z państwem nieczłonkowskim. Ewentualna nowa forma tych relacji będzie efektem żmudnych negocjacji, zależnym od wypadkowej interesów gospodarczych i politycznych krajów członkowskich – przede wszystkim największych, czyli Niemiec, Francji, Włoch, Hiszpanii oraz Polski. To wokół preferowanych przez nie rozwiązań będą budowały się koalicje, w skład których wejdą mniejsze państwa członkowskie. Raport PISM przedstawia możliwe preferencje największych państw w przyszłych stosunkach z Wielką Brytanią i prognozuje, jakie rozwiązania są najbardziej prawdopodobne.

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Niekontrolowane migracje do Unii Europejskiej – implikacje dla Polski

Author(s): / Language(s): Polish

For decades the debate about migration has been reoccurring cyclically in Western Europe. In Poland, it is the first time since the transition in 1989 that migration and refugee policy has become a topic of political and public debate. Having joined the EU and North-Atlantic structures not only has Poland made a civilisational leap but also ensured stability and welfare for the society. By doing so it has become part of the richer “North”, which for more than half a century now has been attracting people from the “South”, from regions of conflict and poverty. Even if today Poland is not a destination of mass migration, with a high degree of probability the richer the country gets the more foreigners it will attract, both from poorer countries of similar cultural background and from the poorest and most destabilised regions of different cultures. This process is new and unfamiliar, so it can bring both risks and opportunities. PISM Report “Uncontrolled Migration to the European Union: Implications for Poland” sets out to explain the very phenomenon of uncontrolled migration to the EU in recent years from the Middle East, Asia, Africa, the Western Balkans and Ukraine. The authors also analyse the political and institutional results that this process yields in the European Union and contextualise uncontrolled migration by assessing its connectedness with the level of terrorist threat and with strategic socio-economic gains that a proper handling of migration brings.

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Troublesome Investment. The Belarusian Nuclear Power Plant in Astravyets

Author(s): Joanna Hyndle-Hussein,Szymon Kardaś,Kamil Kłysiński / Language(s): English

Belarus’s first nuclear power plant has been under construction in the city of Astravyets for a decade now. The project was able to start when Belarus signed an intergovernmental agreement with Russia in 2012, under which the Russian side agreed to finance the project almost fully and provide the technology. The nuclear power plant in Astravyets signals the first time that ground has been broken on a nuclear power project in Europe since the 1986 Chernobyl disaster. Although the Belarusian Nuclear Power Plant (Belarusian NPP), as the project is officially called, is being built just 200 km from the Polish border, it rarely appears in Polish or European news and a wider debate about its safety is yet to take place. Lithuania is the only country where the Astravyets project has stirred major controversy. The project is not only debated there – it has become a key issue in Lithuania’s relations with its allies in the European Union and NATO. Lithuania is concerned about the plant’s location, less than 50 km from Vilnius, while Lithuanian experts believe that the project’s execution does not comply with international safety standards. As a result of the efforts made by Vilnius, the Belarusian-Russian investment has now been noticed internationally.

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Obraz Polski w polityce historycznej Ukrainy

Author(s): Łukasz Jasina,Piotr Kościński,Daniel Szeligowski / Language(s): Polish

Na potrzeby niniejszego raportu autorzy przyjęli następującą definicję polityki historycznej: jest to przekaz polityczny na temat historii państwa i narodu propagowany przez władze państwowe i będący elementem polityki państwa. Historia i stosunek do niej w dużym stopniu kształtowały relacje polsko-ukraińskie po odzyskaniu przez Ukrainę niepodległości w 1991 r. Oprócz prób rozwiązania problemów politycznych czy gospodarczych oba państwa starały się, z różnym skutkiem, uregulować stosunek do kwestii kontrowersyjnych. Są to przede wszystkim rzeź wołyńska (1943–1944), akcja „Wisła” (1947), relacje między Polakami i Ukraińcami przed II wojną światową oraz stosunek do reżimów hitlerowskiego i komunistycznego. W związku z prowadzoną przez Ukrainę polityką historyczną napięcia w relacjach polsko-ukraińskich pojawiały się zatem od początku, zwłaszcza przy okazji rocznic zbrodni wołyńskiej w 2003 i 2013 r. Niemniej dopiero w 2016 r. doszło do poważniejszego kryzysu na tle stosunku do historii – na szczeblu zarówno politycznym, jak i społecznym.

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Probable EU-UK Relationship after Brexit Perspectives of Germany, France, Italy, Spain and Poland

Author(s): Sebastian Płóciennik,Karolina Borońska-Hryniewiecka,Elżbieta Kaca,Patryk Toporowski / Language(s): English

This report seeks to answer the question of how things will develop if, following the 23 June 2016 referendum, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland leaves the European Union, in a move commonly referred to as Brexit. The Polish Institute of International Affairs posits that such a scenario would have adverse consequences for both the European Union and the UK. But given that, just a month before the referendum, the possibility that voters will opt for withdrawal cannot be reasonably ruled out, it is only natural to explore how this outcome could impact the future of European integration. Brexit will necessitate a new agreement between the European Union and the UK which would define a framework for their mutual relations. Possible options range from establishing a preferential trade zone to creating a single market area, including a scenario in which the UK would take part in the developing EU regulations in sectors covered by the agreement.

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The EU Gas Game: Time to Redefine the Rules? Case Studies of Russia and Norway and Lessons for the EU, Norway and Poland

Author(s): Aleksandra Gawlikowska-Fyk,Zuzanna Nowak,Lidia Puka / Language(s): English

The EU’s heavy reliance on imports of energy resources leaves it vulnerable to external suppliers and comes at an economic and political cost. Among the EU’s energy imports its governance vulnerability is especially visible in the gas sector. This is because pipeline infrastructure, longterm contracts, price formulas and an underdeveloped European market weaken the EU’s hand in bargaining with its major gas suppliers, principally Russia and Norway. Norwegian and Russian gas constitutes 80% of all gas imports to the EU. The European Union does have one considerable lever in dealing with Norway and Russia: it is a very attractive market for both countries. This gives the EU some scope to set the rules of the game in terms of gas. The EU assumes the establishment of a fully-fledged European internal market, as well as implementing competition law and exporting market regulations beyond its borders in a bid to reduce prices and depoliticise gas imports, but that raises a question about whether the EU is neglecting other tools available to the EU, such as brute political or financial levers. Indeed the lack of political cohesion among the Member States remains the EU’s Achilles’ heel and its financial capacity is insufficient to force the market to integrate.

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U.S. Military Presence in Central and Eastern Europe: Consequences for NATO Strategic Adaptation, Deterrence and Allied Solidarity

Author(s): Artur Kacprzyk / Language(s): English

In the wake of the Ukraine conflict and Russian hostility towards NATO, the United States has proven to be the most resolute and capable Ally of the Central and Eastern European (CEE) states. The U.S. has been striving to provide leadership for the Alliance and invigorate other members to act, while implementing deterrence and reassurance measures on faster and on bigger scale than other countries. U.S. activities in CEE have included persistent rotational presence of small land forces, air and naval deployments to the region, intense training and exercises, unprecedented pre-positioning of heavy armour in the region, and improvements to local infrastructure. The U.S. has acted both bilaterally and multilaterally, as well as within the framework of NATO’s joint Readiness Action Plan (RAP). U.S. actions have been received very warmly among CEE countries, which are concerned about Russia’s behaviour and especially interested in the support and presence of the leading and most powerful member of the Alliance. Nevertheless, for Poland and the Baltic States, the permanent basing of Allied combat forces is a priority. It is necessary to send a strong political signal to Moscow, and prove that there are no second-class security guarantees for new NATO members. The intention is also to deny Russia hopes of achieving a quick victory and presenting the U.S. and the Alliance with a fait accompli. At the very least, small permanent forces would ensure that even a successful attack against CEE states would automatically result in a costly conflict with the U.S. and NATO. At the other end of the scale, bigger deployments would slow down an enemy offensive and buy time for reinforcements to arrive.

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Nuclear-Backed “Little Green Men:” Nuclear Messaging in the Ukraine Crisis

Author(s): Jacek Durkalec / Language(s): English

Russia’s aggressive actions against Ukraine have exposed the challenge of Moscow’s approach to conflict. The element most highlighted is its use of “hybrid warfare,” epitomised by the so-called “little green men”—Russian soldiers albeit without insignia who played an instrumental role in the annexation of Crimea. These “little green men” were used in conjunction with other hybrid tactics such as the covert engagement of Russian forces on the ground, economic pressure, and an unprecedented disinformation campaign. The hybrid warfare tools were, however, not used alone. The credibility and effectiveness of this hybrid warfare campaign was backed up by Russia’s potential to use its full spectrum of military capabilities, including conventional and nuclear forces. Russian tactics that exploited ambiguity of intent and attribution have been surprising and confusing, and they have created difficulties for NATO, which is determined to effectively address them.

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Is a New Cold War Inevitable? Central European Views on Rebuilding Trust in the Euro-Atlantic Region

Author(s): Martina Heranová,Zdzisław Lachowski,Raimonds Rublovskis / Language(s): English

When the idea to invite Central European experts to share their views on overcoming the acute deficit of trust in the relationship between the West and Russia first originated in early 2014, there was still some hope that the Ukraine crisis would not mark the beginning of a new period of confrontation in Europe. With that in mind, PISM asked the authors not only to comment on the state of the relationship with Russia but also to assess to what extent various proposals (including Carnegie’s Euro-Atlantic Security Initiative papers and the 2013 report by U.S., Russian and European experts, “Building Mutual Security in the Euro-Atlantic Region”) regarding military confidence building and arms control dialogue with Russia would advance the security of Central European countries. However, as the situation deteriorated with Russia’s annexation of Crimea and its support for eastern Ukraine separatists, the focus inevitably had to turn from dealing with the symptoms (mutual mistrust) to addressing the root causes of the spat between Russia and the West, which now threatens the very foundations of the European security system. Previous approaches to mending the relationship, such as those focused on finding areas of cooperation based on common interests (e.g., dealing with terrorism or the Iranian nuclear programme), were unlikely to be sufficient.

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Partnerstwo w kryzysie? Współpraca energetyczna Niemiec i Rosji w regionie Morza Bałtyckiego

Author(s): Kinga Dudzińska,Anna Maria Dyner,Lidia Puka,Ryszarda Formuszewicz / Language(s): Polish

Wybudowanie Gazociągu Północnego, łączącego bezpośrednio Rosję i Niemcy po dnie Morza Bałtyckiego, miało istotnie wzmocnić współpracę energetyczną obu państw. Wbrew pierwotnym oczekiwaniom nowy gazociąg nie doprowadził na razie do wzrostu importu rosyjskiego gazu przez Niemcy w stosunku do okresu sprzed jego uruchomienia. Nie wiadomo, czy sytuacja ta się nie zmieni, biorąc pod uwagę decyzję rządu federalnego o przyspieszonym zamknięciu niemieckich elektrowni jądrowych, jak również podpisane niedawno porozumienie między koncernem BASF a Gazpromem. W raporcie przedstawiono stan i perspektywy współpracy gospodarczej Rosji i Niemiec w regionie Morza Bałtyckiego (RMB) w sektorze naftowym, gazowym i elektroenergetycznym. Analiza rosyjskiej i niemieckiej polityki posłużyła również do sformułowania rekomendacji dla polskich władz i firm energetycznych zainteresowanych jak najlepszymi warunkami do realizowania interesów Polski w regionie.

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Is this the Future of Europe? Opportunities and Risks for Poland in a Union of Insiders and Outsiders

Author(s): / Language(s): English

More than any other Member State, Poland feels the dangers of the separation of the EU into insiders and outsiders. The country’s economic, political and security standing is bound up with its further integration into a strong European Union, but the intrusive reforms being carried out to restore the Eurozone risk excluding not just it and other non-euro members but the arc of states to its east. Poland has thus fallen victim to 2004’s “incomplete enlargement” of the bloc. So far, Poland has enjoyed sympathy and support from euro members such as Germany, and as a “pre-in” to the currency has been entitled to co-define the development of Eurozone governance. However, its EU partners appear increasingly intolerant of its demands for inclusion. When it ratified its EU accession treaty, they argue, Poland undertook to join the common currency. If it wants to ensure that it is included in decision-making, Warsaw simply needs to re-commit with a firm roadmap.

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North–South Gas Corridor: Geopolitical Breakthrough in Central Europe

Author(s): / Language(s): English

Despite delays, a lack of short-term results, as well as turbulent domestic political agendas, the North–South Gas Corridor (NSGC or NSI) remains a priority for all of the Central European states. There are significant differences among them in terms of the level of market liberalisation, progress in building physical infrastructure, and with short-term priorities; however, first and foremost in common is a deep need to diversify both gas supply routes and suppliers. The goal is to achieve this using the same tools in each country—the development of new infrastructure, especially new interconnectors and underground gas storage facilities, contractual and trade arrangements (the introduction of physical and virtual reverse flows), market liberalisation, and the promotion of competition, spot markers and contracts with alternative gas suppliers. The V4 governments and regulators should be expected to continue coordination of efforts amongst themselves on a common regulatory framework for unified wholesaler trading zones, in parallel with the EU Single Market process (an integrated entry/exit network, a single virtual trading point, mergers of trading zones, etc.). In the long run, regional market liquidity might be increased through the establishment of a common gas trading hub, possibly at the future LNG terminal in Świnoujście, Poland. This could strengthen the hand of all of the purchasing countries from the region vis-á-vis their traditional suppliers, namely Russia and Norway.

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Zwrot ku Europie

Author(s): Christian Domnitz / Language(s): Polish

In the presented book Christian Domnitz analyses political journalism in the Polish People’s Republic, German Democratic Republic and Czechoslovakia from the signature of the CSCE Final Act in Helsinki in 1975 to the fall of communism in 1989. Comparing the narratives of European communist parties and the underground press, he explains the meaning of different conceptions of Europe. He also shows their transformations, rivalry between them and the role of individual journalists.

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Pandemia, wojna, globalne przesilenie

Author(s): / Language(s): Polish

Prezentowane w tej książce teksty powstawały od końca 2020 do początku 2023 roku, w zasadzie w sposób spontaniczny, jako reakcja na kolejne wydarzenia, których natura była taka, że nie dawało się ich przewidzieć. Nie było więc jakiegoś szczególnego zamysłu, planu, który poprzedzałby podejmowanie kolejnych zagadnień stanowiących przedmiot uwagi w tej publikacji. Najpierw były to teksty tworzone w odpowiedzi na wyłaniające się kolejne aspekty pandemii COVID-19, potem pojawiły się analizy różnych aspektów wojny rosyjsko-ukraińskiej, aż wreszcie zrodziła się refleksja bardziej ogólna, którą dobrze ujmuje hasło „przesilenie cywilizacyjne”. To określenie ma oznaczać specyficzny moment w rozwoju cywilizacji, swego rodzaju rozdroże, gdzie spotykają się różne odmiany symbolicznych łabędzi – te czarne, których nie potrafiliśmy w większości przewidzieć (pandemia, wojna), ale też te białe i szare, które mogą symbolizować kumulujące się w rozwoju cywilizacji problemy, takie jak kwestie klimatyczne, problemy nierówności ekonomicznych czy wyzwania demograficzne.

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Israel’s Palestinian Challenges: The State’s Identity, a Leadership Crisis and the “new” Middle East

Author(s): Karolina Zielińska / Language(s): English

The conflict with the Palestinian side is a long‑term existential challenge for Israel. It plays out on four levels: territory; population; national aspirations and identity; security. Each of them generates conditions that make a resolution of the dispute or its absence decisive for the future character of this state in terms of its ethnicity (will the majority of the population still be Jewish?) and political system (will it remain a democracy?), as well as its external and internal security. At the same time, the Palestinian question remains a matter of concern for the international community – particularly public opinion – which makes it a major issue in Israel’s international relations.

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Forward, Into the Past! Russia’s Politics of Memory in the Service of ‘eternal’ Authoritarianism

Author(s): Jadwiga Rogoża,Maria Domańska / Language(s): English

The specific nature of the Russia’s politics of memory stems from two types of determinants. These are systemic factors originating from a particular socio‑cultural substrate, formed mainly in the course of the turbulent 20th century history, as well as the present‑day interests of the authoritarian regime. The latter results in an extreme politicisation of the issues relating to the past and leads to alternative viewpoints being excluded from the debate. The narrative of memory is meant to legitimise the authoritarian system of government as being optimal for Russia, and thus to perpetuate the model of state‑society relationship that serves the Kremlin’s interests.

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The Gordian Knot of the Caucasus. The Conflict Over Nagorno-Karabakh

Author(s): Wojciech Górecki / Language(s): English

The conflict over the state affiliation of Nagorno‑Karabakh, which has been ongoing since 1987 (and led to full‑scale war in 1992–94) has determined Armenia and Azerbaijan’s post‑Soviet history. It remains the greatest security challenge for both states, and still has a serious impact on their entire foreign and domestic policies. In both states the conflict has brought political elites to power who in the case of Armenia ruled the state until 2018, and in the case of Azerbaijan are still in power, and who have pre‑determined the homogenous nature of both Azerbaijan’s and Armenia’s societies. This latter is a result of mass expulsions and forced migrations, as well as intensive propaganda presented by both governments, who have exploited the struggle for Nagorno‑Karabakh in their state‑building narratives and have deliberately cultivated the images of their mutual enemy.

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