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ВЛИЯНИЕ НА МИГРАЦИОННИТЕ ПРОЦЕСИ ВЪРХУ ГЕОПОЛИТИКАТА, ИКОНОМИКАТА И ПУБЛИЧНАТА СФЕРА

Author(s): / Language(s): English,Bulgarian

The conference proceedings contain materials from a conference based on a project titled "Impact of the migration processes on the geopolitics, the economics and the public sphere", held on October 12, 2016 at the Conference Center of "Bachinovo" of SWU "Neofit Rilski", Blagoevgrad 2016. The conference was implemented by a research team from the Faculty of Economics at SWU "N. Rilski "- Blagoevgrad".

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The drifting of China’s reforms. Economic policy during Xi Jinping’s first term

Author(s): Jakub Jakóbowski / Language(s): English

The slackening pace of important economic reforms, as well as the stimulus measures taken in response to the 2008 crisis to boost investments, have all led to a huge build-up of debt and created imbalances in the Chinese economy, including in the financial markets and the industrial sector. The new generation of Chinese leadership has previously shown a strong ambition to overcome the status quo and resume reforms, setting out a new economic reform agenda in 2013. // Vested interests, which grew out of state owned enterprises and the bureaucracy, have been regarded as the main line of resistance to further reforms. President Xi Jinping has centralised the decision-making over economic reform by expanding the structures of the Communist Party of China. The new tools for implementing reform turned out to be marred by several defects, which contributed to further stagnation of key reforms. Moreover, the slowing down of China’s economic growth has sparked a debate among the country’s top decision makers on the ultimate shape of economic policy, and the pace of subsequent reforms.

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Mocarstwowe aspiracje Niemiec w Europie XXI wieku: realia i perspektywy (Raport z badań)

Author(s): Bogdan Koszel / Language(s): Polish

Germany is at the stage of redefining its place in Europe and the world in the complex conditions of the 21st century. It is attempting to strengthen its international position in both transatlantic relations and in the European Union. However, this can be described as competition in the process of globalization, not striving for hegemony. At the same time, the pro-European trend in its foreign policy is being observed in Germany. Among the political elites of the Federal Republic of Germany, slogans are being used to return to the German Sonderweg and to resuscitate the so-called German question. There is an increasing openness in writing about the "de-Europeanization" (De-Europäisierung) of Germany and the "domestication" (Domestizierung) of German policy. Currently, elements of continuity and cautious changes prevail in German policy. The failure of the Constitution for Europe cherished by Germany and efforts to obtain a permanent seat on the UN Security Council have shown that Germany had much less capacity to act than it was generally credited with. A. Merkel's government is trying to sort out the situation, which is not so easy, considering the coalition nature of the government and sometimes - as the eurozone crisis has shown - troublesome cooperation with the FDP, and previously with the SPD. Social pacifism is still strong in the country, there is no question of universal agreement on the goals, role and place of the Federal Republic of Germany in the new international order.

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Przyszłość NATO - trudne decyzje

Author(s): Jadwiga Kiwerska / Language(s): Polish

Is NATO, which has been in existence for over 60 years, still the fundamental political and military structure guaranteeing security and stability in Europe - as it has been for decades? To what extent should the Pact be an element and factor of security on a global scale - what do the challenges of today require? Can NATO still operate effectively and be a credible alliance in the current conditions and in the face of new threats? These are some of the questions that should be asked before we begin to develop a new strategic doctrine for the Alliance. This, in turn, must resolve several fundamental issues that are important for making NATO more dynamic and getting it out of a critical juncture.

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Polacy i Niemcy w Unii Europejskiej (2004-2009). Główne problemy i wyzwania

Author(s): Bogdan Koszel / Language(s): Polish

Poland and Germany have common interests in the Union, and above all, they have a significant role to play in implementing the so-called Eastern dimension of the European Union. Together, they should strive to create in Central Europe an area of ​​"freedom, justice and security" outlined in the Amsterdam Treaty. Poland should approach cooperation with Germany in the EU rationally, guided not by immediate benefits or resentment, but with respect for its own interests and those of its partner. It should be borne in mind that in the history of the European Union, there has been no major initiative that has been adopted without the approval of Germany. The policy of sacro egoismo and being guided solely by national interests can easily lead to Poland's isolation in the European Union.

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China’s junior partner. Russia’s Korean policy

Author(s): Witold Rodkiewicz / Language(s): English

Russia’s long-term goal is to prevent the reunification of the Korean peninsula under the aegis of the United States and to weaken the US ’s position in the region. Its short-term goal is to avert the danger of an outbreak of armed conflict on the peninsula and the possible collapse of North Korea. Russia’s support for the reunification of the two Korean states is purely declaratory; in practice the Kremlin is striving to maintain the political status quo on the peninsula. At the same time, Russia wants to maximise its influence by developing economic relations and maintaining political contacts with both Koreas. Moscow does not view the denuclearisation of North Korea as one of its priorities. Its approach to Pyongyang’s nuclear programme is instrumental; in Moscow’s eyes, although the program poses certain risks for Russia, it also opens a number of opportunities. The course of the crisis so far has demonstrated that Russia does not have sufficient tools to influence the course of events. As a consequence, it has had to accept a role as China’s ‘junior partner’ in the Korean issue.

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Nowe uzbrojenie Rosji – propaganda, uzupełnianie braków czy wyzwanie dla NATO?

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): Polish

In recent years, Russia has intensified work on new types of weapons for all parts of its Armed Forces. By introducing the new weapon types, Russia wants to base its strength not only on its nuclear forces, which in many cases is completely ineffective as a deterrent, but also on conventional forces. This goal has resulted in the need to replace obsolete equipment and has been financed by the economic prosperity of the country, thanks mainly to high oil prices. With the higher inflows to the country’s budget, Russian authorities managed to increase funds for rearmament. The current economic crisis, however, and in particular the fall in the price of crude oil, the sales of which form the base revenue of Russia’s budget (amounting to about 45%), may result in a loss of funding for the rearmament programmes. The plans may be further limited by technological deficiencies in Russia’s military industry, exacerbated by sanctions introduced by the EU and U.S. in response to Russia’s actions in Ukraine and which prevent the acquisition of Western technology, especially military-grade electronics. In the short- and medium-term perspectives, Russia’s financial problems may result in the need to select priority technologies and choose between the armed forces that will be equipped first. Considering the amount of new equipment introduced by Russia and ongoing research projects on new types of weapons, the most important is the Russian Air and Space Forces, as well as its Strategic Rocket Forces. The country will also invest in weapons for ground troops and naval aviation. A number of changes will also affect the navy, but in this case the reason is mainly the poor technical condition of Russian Federation assets.

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Starting the Process of Trust-Building in NATO–Russia Relations: The Arms Control Dimension

Author(s): Jacek Durkalec,Ian Kearns,Łukasz Kulesa / Language(s): English

The security climate in Europe has chilled considerably. While we are far from a threat of a military confrontation, worst-case assumptions are frequently being made about the intentions of “the other.” A fundamental change of the climate of the relationship is possible if the West and Russia work together to increase mutual trust in the military field. Trust-building in the anarchic international environment is inherently difficult, but three approaches stand out: graduated reciprocation (a sequence of limited conciliatory steps), costly signals (bold concessions aimed at showing trustworthiness), and reliance on inter-personal dynamics, especially contacts between leaders. In the NATO–Russia context, only a combination of these three approaches aimed at reaching specific, realistically selected arms control aims can bring about notable progress. Mutual restraint and increased transparency should be the guiding principles.

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Conflicts over use of urban and regional spaces in the time of climate changes. Good management and planning practices

Author(s): / Language(s): English

The areas inhabited by man have always been an arena of conflict. The more developed regions attract new residents, who seek their place and work there. Excessive migration causes congestion, lack of space for new buildings and hence conflicts. The city is a specific area of conflict - over land, over access to infrastructure, over housing, over jobs. Excessive urban development, which exceeds the limits of efficient area management, contributes to the deterioration of living conditions – transport chaos, social segregation, inefficient public services, air pollution. Conflicts over water, over sustainable electricity, over resources, over access to education are also everyday topics in all parts of the world. We present our readers with a monograph devoted to some of the above-mentioned problems, which are common for Poland and for Latin American countries. This publication is a continuation of the topics discussed in earlier monographs, which were the result of joint research of Polish and Latin American geographers within many projects dedicated to urban issues. Academics of the Faculty of Geography and Regional Studies of Warsaw University have been lecturers at doctoral studies in urban and regional sustainable development and post-doctoral studies in Earth and Environmental Science at the University of Manizales in Colombia (Doctorado en Desarrollo Sostenible y Posdoctorado en Ciencias de la Tierra y el Medio Ambiente). Doctoral students and lecturers from the University of Manizales have visited Poland many times in joint symposia and workshops). In 2017 a Polish-Colombian monograph in Spanish was published in Colombia and in 2018 two scientific monographs, both in Spanish and English, were brought out by the University of Warsaw Press. This volume is the first of the two published in 2021 and contains only English texts on sustainable development, risk and local development in Poland, Colombia and some other South American countries.

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On the Linkage between Bitcoin, Islamic Stocks, and Oil Prices

Author(s): Salahaddin Aljasem / Language(s): English

The expansion of asset classes and the health, economic and geopolitical crises have made it necessary for investors to diversify their assets in international markets. This book aims to investigate the causal relationship between Bitcoin (BTC), Islamic Stock Markets (ISMs), and Oil. To this end, Firstly, the stationarity of the data series was checked using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Philips Perron (PP) Tests for the period from August 18, 2011, to December 10, 2021. Then, after implementing the Vector Autoregressive (VAR) Model and various robustness checks to trace the existence of correlations between the variables, the Nonparametric Causality-in- Quantiles Test was utilized to determine the direction and strength of the relationship between the studied series. The results suggested that there are two-way causality-in- variance among variables. The strength of this causality especially rises in the normal market conditions but is weak in the upper quantiles except from BTC to DJI and from WTI to DJI. In terms of causality-in-mean, there is one-way causality from DJI to WTI in only a medium quantile.

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Formy mocarstwowości we współczesnym świecie – studium przypadków

Author(s): / Language(s): Polish

The monograph analyzes the military, economic and political power of selected countries. It contains case studies especially on those actors of international relations who either aspire to the role of great powers or have come to terms with their rank of "middle power". The potential of the European Union or India predestines them to strive for a place among the most significant actors on the international arena. Japan, Canada and South Korea, in turn, being aware of the limits of their power, focus rather on strengthening the existing international order or balancing between great powers.

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Динамика в регионалното развитие на общините с население между 10 и 30 хиляди в Източна България

Author(s): Nikolay Tsonkov,Kamen Petrov,Krassimira Slaveva,Cvetelina Berberova-Valcheva / Language(s): Bulgarian

The Black Sea region is an economic, trade, transport, energy, geostrategic and political crossroads. The interests of the European Union, the United States, Russia, China, Turkey, and the Balkan countries are intertwined here. Over the decades, several initiatives have been organized to satisfy the interests of global and regional players and to improve the economic, environmental, social, and transport situation, including connectivity through the construction of strategic transport infrastructure (regional and interregional). The analysis of past policies leads to the conclusion that a high degree of coherence, coordination, and implementation of a strategic approach to solving regional problems and creating integrity, connectivity, and regional connectivity has not yet been achieved. Both within the Bulgarian Black Sea coast and looking at the wider context, there is no successful cooperation and economic interconnection between the municipalities located on and near the sea. This is done through regional connectivity, building strategic transport infrastructure, and intermodal transport. Despite all the initiatives and policies undertaken, the Black Sea municipalities in the northeast and Southeast regions of Bulgaria are visibly underdeveloped (especially in the Black Sea hinterland) and their development potential is decreasing. It is therefore important to initiate research on Black Sea municipalities to develop regional policies to stimulate their economic development and improve their connectivity. The above argues for the need to plan and develop the Black Sea region in Bulgaria considering it in a broader context in terms of strategic transport infrastructure development. It is the basis for the subsequent improvement of connectivity, economic links, and socio-economic development, including in this part of the Bulgarian territory. The relevance of the research stems from the contemporary processes taking place in the Black Sea region. These processes are related to increasing tensions and strengthening of different interests for control of the inland sea. At the same time, from the point of view of Bulgaria and the European Union, this is a region that requires a specific approach to solving the various problems that have been layered over the years. These are related to security, geo-economics, geopolitics, transport, accessibility, urbanization, investment policies, and, finally, resolving regional socio-economic disparities. In another direction, regional policy in certain regions and areas is proving to be one of the most feasible mechanisms for regional development. This predetermines that the focus of European integration and the sustainability of regional policies must be seen through the prism of repositioning regional development as a genuine national priority.

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Are Russian Narratives Amplified by PRC Media? A Case Study on Narratives Related to Sweden’s and Finland’s NATO Applications

Author(s): Jerker Hellström,Matti Puranen,Santeri Kytöneva,Pekka Kallioniemi / Language(s): English

After the launch of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022, state media in the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and the Russian Federation have employed similar tactics in their information operations and have often disseminated similar narratives about the war. PRC state media, which insist on referring to the Russian aggression as the ‘Ukrainian crisis’, have among other things amplified conspiracy theories about purported United States (US) biological weapons facilities in Ukraine and spread Russian narratives claiming US and NATO culpability for the war. Moreover, Russian officials and commentators significantly outnumber their Ukrainian counterparts in the coverage of state-owned Chinese news organisations targeting foreign audiences, such as Xinhua, the Chinese state news agency, and China Daily.

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DAVID vs. Goliath : NATO war against Yugoslavia and its implications

Author(s): Nebojša Vuković / Language(s): English

The NATO aggression against the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia in 1999 is one of the most tragic episodes in the modern history of the Serbian people. In military terms, this conflict was almost absurd: the largest military coalition in history attacked a small and isolated country with a genuine threat to destroy it utterly. From the political and cultural point of view, this conflict brought to Serbia besides terrible destruction and numerous victims, a profound disappointment because the war was initiated by its former allies from the two great world wars. During the 20th century, in the First Balkan War and the First and Second World War, Serbia mainly fought against far superior enemies (the Ottoman Empire, the Austro-Hungarian Empire, Imperial Germany and later Nazi Germany) but always with a strong motive of freedom in the foreground. Serbia emerged as a winner and part of the winning alliances from all these conflicts. In so far, the military attack of the nineteen NATO member states on Serbia, i.e., the former FR Yugoslavia (the remaining federation of Serbia and Montenegro after the dissolution of the “Great Yugoslavia”), conducted by an alliance of some major allies from the previous wars (France, United Kingdom, USA), represented an enormous civilizational shock to the Serbian people. It was hard to comprehend and accept the ideological, political and “humanitarian” reasons declared by the Western allies as justification for their warfare. From this perspective, it can be stated that the fallen members of the Yugoslav Army and the Ministry of the Interior of Serbia demonstrated heroism and courage equal to those of their ancestors who fought in the previous wars for freedom and honor of the homeland. On the occasion of two decades of this, for many reasons, a unique war in military history, the Faculty of Security Studies of the University of Belgrade and the Institute of International Politics and Economics from Belgrade decided to publish the international thematic collection of scientific papers.

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Russia Serbia Relations at the beginning of XXI Century

Author(s): / Language(s): English

Towards the end of Kosovo status negotiations in 2007 and 2008 the Serbian political scene was filled with historically frequent, yet unusually intensive surge of enthusiasm towards Russia, its interests, priorities, and its Western Balkans policy. Praises of the modern day Russia and its internal political model became a common practice, which further led to a greater perception, among Serbian citizens, of Russia being a key political resource that Serbia could seriously rely upon. However, all these commendations, wishes and activities, were rather based on emotional and irrational grounds. They were formed by the historical closeness of the two peoples (defined by ethnicity, not by citizenship), and the common religious and cultural heritage, which were, according to this logic, easy to be transferred to the political level. Reasons for this increased enthusiasm naturally lay in the unresolved Kosovo status issue, but also in the rising number of economic and political problems. Russia has been perceived, as many times before in Serbian history, as a protector, with a sufficient political and economic capacity to help resolve Serbian problems. At the same time, scientific and rational arguments about Russia’s role and position were practically ignored, starting from the obvious (geographical distance), through more sophisticated ones (realistic interests and politics of Russia), to the completely theological (Russia’s vision of Serbia’s future and its social and political model) arguments.

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Fearless Heroines of Peace: Publication of women’s individual stories about building peace in Bosnia and Herzegovina through personal and real struggles

Author(s): Jasna Pekić ,Tajma Kapić / Language(s): English

Even after the third decade since the end of the war, certain issues from the social sphere that were not properly addressed in the post-conflict period in Bosnia and Herzegovina leave their mark on the feminist aspects of the development of society, especially in the sphere of transitional justice. On the other hand, with various geopolitical events throughout Europe and the world, Bosnia and Herzegovina found itself in a position where conflicts from other countries are reflected on our society - whether through the participation of security forces from BiH in peacekeeping missions or through the reception of refugees, migrants and asylum seekers from conflict countries and other countries of the world.

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Serbia and NATO: From enemies to (almost) partners

Author(s): Jelena Radoman / Language(s): English

This paper explores the ambivalence of current Serbia – NATO relations. The relationship features alongside Serbia’s ‘exceptionality’ in comparison to the relations of the other Western Balkan countries with the Alliance. In spite of this ‘exceptionality’ Serbia’s security policies have being brought in line with the prevailing security discourse and concept of NATO. The main event that has shaped Serbia – NATO relations is the 1999 bombing campaign of which its consequences and impact on current Serbia – NATO relations are described and analysed here. The central argument is that despite the experience of NATO’s hard power in 1999, Serbia’s security policies have been socialised through the post-1999 engagement with the Alliance as well as the perceived convergence of NATO’s and the European Union’s security policies. This case study contributes to the literature on socialisation by analysing an exceptional case of socialisation which took place without Serbia either being a member of the EU or NATO, or any sort of declared ambition to join the Alliance. It stands in contrast to the already explored examples of socialisation of the Central and East European, Baltic and Balkans states whose security policies have been socialised due to these countries’ open and undisputed ambitions to join both the EU and NATO and their following admittance into both of these organizations.

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Protection of Human Rights in the Army and Police

Author(s): / Language(s): English,Serbian

The book Protection of Human Rights in the Army and the Police combines the papers prepared by the researchers and associates of the Centre for Civil-Military Relations, a Belgrade-seated NGO, within a project on the “Protection of Human Rights in the Army and the Police of the FR of Yugoslavia”. The whole project, including the publishing effort, was implemented with the support of the Westminster Foundation for Democracy, London and Freedom House, Budapest. The project, initially conceived as one-year (2000-2001) interdisciplinary research exercise, was essentially aimed at identifying the degree of respect for human rights in the Yugoslav army and the police. The research also extended to the observance of human rights of citizens under the jurisdiction of the army and/or the police. The main task of the researchers was to look into the (im)balance between the regulative – constitutional and legal – protection of human rights in the army and the police of the FRY and their actual discharge. In order to do that relevant empirical data had to be collected.To this end, in early 2001, the Centre for Public Opinion and Political Research of the Institute for Social Sciences of the University of Belgrade carried out a survey on the situation of human rights and freedoms in the Yugoslav army and the police on a representative sample of 1680, as required for project purposes. The survey findings were presented to the public at a press conference on 12 April 2001 in the Belgrade Media Centre. The conclusive analysis of findings was then incorporated into the present Collection of Papers.

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Security Inclusion of FR Yugoslavia in Euro-Atlantic Community

Author(s): / Language(s): English

To achieve a fully democratic and secure state, FR Yugoslavia (FRY) must address internal and external security challenges through cooperation with neighboring countries and integration into the Euro-Atlantic Community, particularly NATO and the EU. Following a decade of instability and ideological manipulation, reforms began after Milošević's removal in 2000, signaling support for Euro-Atlantic integration. However, achieving this requires citizens to embrace democratic standards and understand the benefits of such integration.The Center for Civil-Military Relations in Belgrade addressed these issues by organizing the 2001 conference, "Prospects for Security Inclusion of FR Yugoslavia in the Euro-Atlantic Community," supported by NATO and the Geneva Centre for the Democratic Control of Armed Forces. The conference facilitated discussions between domestic and international experts on topics such as NATO’s Partnership for Peace program, FRY's security reform, and the interdependence of Southeastern Europe and the Euro-Atlantic Community.To achieve a fully democratic and secure state, FR Yugoslavia (FRY) must address internal and external security challenges through cooperation with neighboring countries and integration into the Euro-Atlantic Community, particularly NATO and the EU. Following a decade of instability and ideological manipulation, reforms began after Milošević's removal in 2000, signaling support for Euro-Atlantic integration. However, achieving this requires citizens to embrace democratic standards and understand the benefits of such integration. The Center for Civil-Military Relations in Belgrade addressed these issues by organizing the 2001 conference, "Prospects for Security Inclusion of FR Yugoslavia in the Euro-Atlantic Community," supported by NATO and the Geneva Centre for the Democratic Control of Armed Forces. The conference facilitated discussions between domestic and international experts on topics such as NATO’s Partnership for Peace program, FRY's security reform, and the interdependence of Southeastern Europe and the Euro-Atlantic Community.

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Prekogranična saradnja, instrument razvoja

Author(s): / Language(s): Serbian

The aim of the project "What brings the European Union - case studies on the effects of Serbia's accession to the European Union in the fields of ecology, agriculture and cross-border cooperation" is to investigate and to indicate to citizens and decision-makers at the national and local level in Serbia whether, in what way, to what extent and under what conditions the processes of europeanization and Serbia's approach to the European Union increase the prospects of Serbia to accelerate its development and make better use of its development potential. Research was carried out in three areas: protection of the human environment, cross-border cooperation and agriculture. Research was done on the examples of specific local communities using the "case study" methodology, which allows one to easily observe the possible effects of europeanization on examples from practice and in a recognizable environment in which Serbian citizens live, face certain problems and try to solve them. The aforementioned three areas were selected for research because they are either spoken of as an essential development resource, regardless of the limits for their use (agriculture), or without a sufficient understanding of their function (cross-border cooperation), or without a clear observation of how and under what conditions they have a limiting or stimulating effect on other development potentials (protection of the human environment) and development resources.

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