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Niemieckie sieci na Wschodzie. Niemiecki soft power w Europie Wschodniej, Azji Centralnej i na Kaukazie Południowym: polityka – administracja – kultura – nauka – społeczeństwo

Author(s): Justyna Gotkowska / Language(s): Polish

Contact network building and political lobbying, development co-operation programmes and foreign cultural and science policy are vital for supporting the German economy – which relies heavily on exports – and for the country’s ambition to gain the status of a European centre of technology and innovation, and to have a stronger influence on the EU’s external activity.

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Unity stronger than divisions. Ukraine’s internal diversity

Author(s): Tadeusz A. Olszański / Language(s): English

Ukraine is deeply divided internally, although as a result of the changes that have taken place since its independence, the country’s internal divisions now have less and less to do with territorial divides, and the split into historical ‘sub-Ukraines’ has become less pronounced, especially for the younger generation. Ukraine is not a country of two competing regional identities, one in the west, the other in the east. The western identity, in which the unity of Ukraine is a key value, coexists with the multiple and diverse local patriotisms of the different regions in the east and the south of the country. The present protest movement has consolidated the country’s sense of unity. Its opponents have also been championing the indivisibility of Ukraine, even while they demanded a thorough decentralisation of the country, which was often mistaken for separatism. Russia has been stirring up separatist tendencies in Ukraine, but with little success. Crimea is an exception here, because in most respects it has remained unaffected by the dynamics of the social processes transforming mainland Ukraine – separatist tendencies are indeed deeply rooted in the peninsula.

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Turkey and the Kurdish problem

Author(s): Krzysztof Strachota / Language(s): English

The Kurdish issue remains a serious challenge to the stability and security of both Turkey and much of the Middle East. Over the last ten years, however, the region has witnessed substantial major changes (including, Turkey’s socio-political transformation, and the wars in Iraq and Syria), which have altered the conditions under which the so-called ‘Kurdish problem’ has been approached.The new context has fuelled the ambitions, the potential, and the capacity to act not only within Turkey but also among the Kurdish people. Alongside the historically-motivated mutual distrust, hostility and repeated tensions, new opportunities for dialogue and effective cooperation have emerged between the Turkish state and the Kurdish people (particularly the Iraqi Kurds). // The situation in the region is dynamic and the geopolitical limitations faced by Turkey and the Kurds remain significant. It is therefore impossible to prejudge the future shape of the relationship between the two sides. Nonetheless, a notable breakthrough in Ankara’s approach to both the Turkish Kurds and the Middle East, coupled with the consolidation of the Kurds and a deep crisis in the region, indicate that the relations between Turkey, the Kurds and the Middle East will not return to the geopolitical paradigm which dominated much of the twentieth century.

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Turcja i węzeł kurdyjski

Author(s): Krzysztof Strachota / Language(s): Polish

Kwestia kurdyjska stanowi wciąż wyzwanie dla stabilności i bezpieczeństwa zarówno Turcji, jak i znacznej części Bliskiego Wschodu. Jednocześnie jednak trwające od dekady zasadnicze przewartościowania w regionie (m.in. transformacja Turcji, wojny w Iraku i Syrii) zmieniły uwarunkowania, w jakich tzw. problem kurdyjski dotychczas funkcjonował.Na fali przemian m.in. znacząco wzrosły ambicje, potencjał i możliwości działania nie tylko Turcji, ale też Kurdów. Obok ugruntowanej historycznie wzajemnej nieufności i wrogości oraz kolejnych napięć wyraźnie zarysowały się – co stanowi istotne novum – pola i gotowość do dialogu oraz efektywnej współpracy Turcji i Kurdów (przede wszystkim irackich). // Sytuacja w regionie jest dynamiczna, a ujawnione w ostatnim czasie ograniczenia Turcji i Kurdów znaczne, nie można więc przesądzać przyszłego kształtu relacji. Jednak swoisty przełom w myśleniu tureckim o Kurdach i Bliskim Wschodzie, konsolidacja Kurdów i głęboki kryzys w całym regionie wskazują, że relacje w trójkącie Turcja–Kurdowie–Bliski Wschód nie powrócą do schematów funkcjonujących w XX wieku.

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The Sultans of Swing. Turkey's stance on integration with the European Union

Author(s): Szymon Ananicz / Language(s): English

Despite a rise in anti-EU rhetoric and a growing assertiveness in Ankara’s relations with Brussels, Turkey will continue to seek closer integration with the European Union in the coming years. The current stalemate in the accession process has been a source of irritation to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s government. Nonetheless, a complete collapse of accession talks would be a much worse scenario for the ruling AKP party. Currently, the government is primarily interested in keeping the negotiation process alive, rather than hoping to gain full membership any time soon. // Erdoğan’s government will likely seek to continue the accession talks because the AKP is acutely aware of their importance for the country’s domestic politics, for its the economy, and – although to a lesser extent – for Turkey’s international standing. The opportunity to capitalise on this process will encourage the Turkish government to avoid crises in its relations with the EU, or to at least mitigate the impact of any potential diplomatic fallouts.

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Visegrad development aid in the Eastern Partnership region

Author(s): Zsuzsanna Végh / Language(s): English

The international development cooperation systems of the Visegrad countries are all rather new, in most cases only about a decade old. They are still undergoing reforms and the countries are striving to strengthen their own profiles as development donors in the world by gradually increasing their bilateral ODA. Although their resources are limited and were further cut due to the financial and economic crisis, the bilateral ODA ratio of the Visegrad countries as a group spent in the EaP region gradually increased after 2009. // Given that the individual systems are still developing and the countries are focusing on creating their own brand, it is highly unlikely that in the near future it would be in their interest to set up a common development fund – either for the EaP region or in general. Instead of creating new institutions, however, a rationalization of the current cooperation systems and a consolidation of existing resources is feasible and should be considered.

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V4 Goes Global: Exploring Opportunities and Obstacles in the Visegrad Countries’ Cooperation with Brazil, India, China and South Africa

Author(s): / Language(s): English

Over the last few years, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia—comprising the Visegrad Group (V4)—have been developing the global dimension of their foreign policy and exploring economic opportunities in non-European markets. The financial and economic crisis in the EU, coupled with the strong growth in emerging economies, made diversification of exports a more attractive option than before. After two decades of internal transformation and a focus on Euro-Atlantic integration, the Visegrad countries also became more capable and more interested in looking for new partners beyond Europe and rebuilding old relationships that received less attention after 1989.

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Przyszłość partnerstwa UE–AKP po 2020 roku. Perspektywa Polski

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel,Damian Wnukowski / Language(s): Polish

W roku 2020 kończy się obowiązywanie umowy z Kotonu o partnerstwie między UE a grupą Afryki, Karaibów i Pacyfiku (AKP). W przeddzień rozpoczęcia negocjacji w ramach Unii Europejskiej na temat przyszłości relacji z 78 państwami AKP przedstawiamy raport PISM prezentujący główne założenia, cele i osiągnięcia obowiązującego porozumienia. Autorzy kreślą też możliwe scenariusze rozwoju partnerstwa po 2020 r. i opisują obecny stan debaty na ten temat w Europie, w tym wstępne stanowiska największych krajów Unii. Także w Polsce, która po raz pierwszy będzie miała wpływ na kształtowanie polityki UE w tym zakresie, potrzebna jest debata o roli krajów AKP w polityce zagranicznej.

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Russia under Sanctions: Assessing the Damage, Scrutinising Adaptation and Evasion

Author(s): Stanislav Secrieru / Language(s): English

The sanctions are not about democracy promotion in Russia, rather they aim to give a chance for a deeper democracy to take root and thrive in Ukraine, in tune with the popular demands expressed in 2013-2014. The sanctions do not seek to weaken Russia per se. Their reversibility shows that the main goal is to help Ukrainian statehood survive in the context of Russia’s military aggression. As the West has ruled out direct use of lethal means to protect Ukraine, the sanctions came to represent an efficient, low-cost tool to shelter Ukraine and constrain Russia’s power. It was pivotal that the West responded as it did in 2014. Had it delayed, the Russian aggression, unopposed, would have threatened not only Ukraine’s existence but some of its neighbours as well. In this case, the West would have been forced to design a response anyway, although one ultimately riskier and costlier.

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Międzynarodowa pomoc dla Ukrainy. Szanse dla polskich firm i organizacji

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel,Piotr Kościński / Language(s): Polish

The Ukrainian transformation triggered by the Maidan revolution has boosted development assistance for Ukraine offered by international and bilateral donors, including Poland. This opens more extensive funding opportunities for development projects and investments to Polish companies and organisations, but so far Polish entities have not seized the opportunities available. This publication presents the engagement of key donors in Ukraine and indicates how Polish companies and NGOs can launch new cooperation projects, taking advantage of additional financial resources to support the modernisation and development of Poland’s eastern neighbour.

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Putin for the fourth time. The state of and prospects for Russia (2018-2024)

Author(s): / Language(s): English

On 18 March 2018 Vladimir Putin was elected President of the Russian Federation for the fourth time, and at the beginning of May he will begin his next term, which, in accordance with Russian law, should last until 2024. During his rule, which started at the beginning of 2000, Putin and his associates have profoundly changed Russia, its economic and political system, and its foreign policy. This report is intended, firstly, to act as a summary of the results of Putin’s rule until now, in the areas of domestic policy, the economy and foreign policy, and the security and defence spheres related to these policies. Secondly, it aims to characterise the main challenges which the Russian authorities face on the threshold of Putin’s fourth term. Thirdly and finally, it will attempt to outline the prospects for the Kremlin’s policy, and offer forecasts of future developments in those areas in Russia.

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Ukraine’s presidential elections, 2019- The main candidates

Author(s): Tadeusz Iwański,Krzysztof Nieczypor / Language(s): English

For the first time in the history of independent Ukraine, seven months before the presidential election, it is difficult to determine not only who the most likely winner will be, but also which two candidates will make it into the second round. A victory for any politician in the first round (31 March 2019) now seems out of the question. Opinion polls unequivocally indicate that Yulia Tymoshenko enjoys the greatest support. At the same time, over 20% of voters do not know or do not want to disclose who they will vote for; over 10% would choose someone who is not included in the polls, and almost half would look for an alternative among new candidates. The main contenders, apart from the pro-Russian candidates, basically do not differ in their views on which way Ukraine should develop strategically. Each of them has declared their support for Ukraine's integration with the EU and NATO, the continuation of reforms, and political and economic modernisation similar to the Western model. The public's great demand for new faces and people who have not been compromised by politics, the low support for the current main presidential candidates, and the high percentage of voters who have not yet decided who they will vote for, mean that the final winner of the election could be decided by unexpected events - scandals, catastrophes, the intensification of military activities in the Donbass, etc. - which could take place or be provoked in the period directly preceding the election.

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Wielka gra wokół Turkmenistanu

Author(s): Maciej Falkowski,Aleksandra Jarosiewicz / Language(s): English,Polish

The rise of a new leader of the state of Turkmenistan – President Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov, who became ruler of the central Asian state after the 21-year rule of Saparmurad Niyazov, the self-proclaimed Turkmenbashi, who died on December 21, 2006 – has initiated changes in Turkmenistan’s political life. The new president has broken with the previous policy of self-isolation, and has directed the country towards openness to the outside world. Opportunities have thereby arisen for competitors in the ‘Great Game’, to gain political influence in Turkmenistan and access to hitherto unexploited Turkmen deposits of gas and oil. A new stage in the Great Game, which has been played for influence in Central Asia and control of access to its energy resources for many years, can thus be said to have been launched, and Turkmenistan has become the main setting for it. The major actors involved are Russia, the United States, China and the European Union.

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The Subnational Dimension of EU-China Relations

Author(s): Tomasz Kamiński,Adriana Skorupska,Justyna Szczudlik / Language(s): English

This report is the result of a three-year project conducted by the Faculty of International and Political Studies at the University of Łódź and the Polish Institute of International Affairs and funded by the National Science Centre. The aim of the project was to understand the role of cooperation between European and Chinese regions in the politics of the European Union as regards China. The study involved the phenomenon of paradiplomacy, i.e., relations of international subnational entities whose goal is to achieve economic, cultural, and political benefits. It is assumed that the growing independence of local governments brings new challenges to the foreign policy of the state. The report presents the specificity of relations with China at the subnational level of the six largest EU countries in terms of population: Germany, France, Spain, Poland, Italy, and the UK. It also analyses selected case studies of European regions cooperating with Chinese partners. The text also includes references to relations between the European Union and China. The conclusions are based on the analysis of the selected countries and cannot always be generalised to the entire European Union.

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The Subnational Dimension of EU-China Relations

Author(s): Tomasz Kamiński,Adriana Skorupska,Justyna Szczudlik / Language(s): Polish

Raport jest wynikiem trzyletniego projektu prowadzonego przez Wydział Studiów Międzynarodowych i Politologicznych Uniwersytetu Łódzkiego oraz Polski Instytut Spraw Międzynarodowych i finansowanego przez Narodowe Centrum Nauki. Celem projektu było zrozumienie roli, jaką odgrywa współpraca między regionami europejskimi i chińskimi w polityce Unii Europejskiej wobec Chin. Badaniu poddano zjawisko paradyplomacji, czyli relacji międzynarodowych podmiotów subpaństwowych, których celem jest osiągnięcie gospodarczych, kulturowych i politycznych korzyści. Przyjmuje się, że rosnąca niezależność samorządów stawia nowe wyzwania wobec polityki zagranicznej państwa. Raport przedstawia specyfikę relacji z Chinami na poziomie subpaństwowym sześciu największych pod względem ludności państw UE: Niemiec, Francji, Hiszpanii, Polski, Włoch i Wielkiej Brytanii. Analizuje także wybrane studia przypadków regionów europejskich współpracujących z chińskimi partnerami. W tekście znajdują się też odniesienia do relacji Unii Europejskiej z ChRL. Ponieważ podstawą wniosków jest analiza wybranych państw, nie zawsze można je uogólniać na całą Unię Europejską.

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Turcja w procesie przemian: wnioski dla strategii UE

Author(s): Karol Wasilewski / Language(s): Polish

Od 2013 r. tureccy politycy intensywnie głoszą nadejście „nowej Turcji”. W ich przekonaniu zmiany, które Partia Sprawiedliwości i Rozwoju (Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi, AKP) zaczęła wprowadzać po objęciu władzy w 2002 r., mają ostatecznie doprowadzić do radykalnej odmiany oblicza państwa. W 2023 r. – a więc w stulecie istnienia – Republika Turcji, silna, stabilna i „pewna siebie”, zdolna kształtować sytuację w regionie, ma być jednym z ośrodków nowego, wielobiegunowego ładu międzynarodowego. Wprowadzenie systemu prezydenckiego wskutek referendum z 16 kwietnia 2017 r. stanowi kolejny krok, a zarazem nowy impuls, w tym kierunku. Te pomysły – i niełatwe uwarunkowania, w jakich są realizowane – powodują, że od dłuższego czasu Turcja nie znika z czołówek gazet na całym świecie. Badacze i analitycy zastanawiają się, jakie będzie to nowe oblicze Republiki Turcji. Czy nadal będzie świeckim państwem, zorientowanym na integrację ze strukturami zachodnimi? Czy też reformy wewnętrzne stanowią zapowiedź nieuniknionego, radykalnego zwrotu w polityce zagranicznej? Jaką strategię wobec takiej Turcji powinna przyjąć Unia Europejska?

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Options for Transparency and Confidence-Building Measures Related to Non-Strategic Nuclear Weapons in Europe: Cost-Benefit Matrix

Author(s): Jacek Durkalec,Andrei Zagorski / Language(s): English

On 20–21 February 2014 in Warsaw, the Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM) in cooperation with the Institute of World Economy and International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences (IMEMO RAN) organised the workshop: Transparency and Confidence-Building Measures Related to Non-Strategic Nuclear Weapons in Europe: Cost-Benefit Matrix. The workshop sought to advance the informal dialogue on information-sharing and transparency and confidence-building measures (TCBMs) regarding non-strategic nuclear weapons (NSNW) in Europe. The idea behind the workshop was based on the concept of a Joint TCBM Cost-Benefit Matrix, outlined in the final report of the 2013 Warsaw Workshop: Prospects for Information-Sharing and Confidence-Building on Non-Strategic Nuclear Weapons in Europe.

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Teoretičari klasične geopolitike - ciklus predavanja

Author(s): Filip Kovačević / Language(s): Montenegrine

Kraj hladnog rata označio je povratak geopolitike kao discipline. Od kada je taj povratak najavio francuski teoretičar Iv Lakost, u prvom broju geopolitičkog časopisa ,,Herodot“, u međuvremenu geopolitika je dobila na značaju. Na izvjestan način, geopolitika je ušla u modu, široko upotrebljavana u medijskom, političkom i akademskom svijetu. Iako se radi o klasičnoj disciplini duže istorijske tradicije, geopolitika je imala i svoj sumrak, postajući i svojevrstan tabu između kraja Drugog svjetskog rata i završetka Hladnog rata 90-ih godina prošlog vijeka. Naime, riječ geopolitika bi u navedenom periodu jako asocirala na režime totalitarnog karaktera, posebno nacizma. Jedan od najistaknutijih teoretičara geopolitike XX vijeka general Karl Haushofer, osnivač i direktor Minhenske škole i uticajnog časopisa “Zeitschrift fur Geopolitik”, smatran je za doktrinarnog inspiratora ekspanzionizma Hitlerovog Trećeg rajha. Međunarodni sistem zasnovan na dogovoru velikih sila na Jalti 1945. godine o podjeli sfera uticaja je donio hladni rat i u njemu paradoksalna ,,pravila i izvjesnosti“, uz ravnotežu snaga i straha od nuklearnog rata, kontrolisane sukobe na periferiji, propagandno takmičenje u kojem je geopolitičko promišljanje zamijenjeno oštrim ideološkim generalizacijama Istok - Zapad, komunizam - kapitalizam, sloboda - totalitarizam, zlo - dobro.

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ZMIERZCH LIBERALNEGO PORZĄDKU MIĘDZYNARODOWEGO 2011–2021

Author(s): Roman Kuźniar / Language(s): Polish

Książka jest autorską fotografią ostatniej dekady w stosunkach międzynarodowych, w szczególności opisuje proces zmierzchu liberalnego porządku międzynarodowego. Jego narodziny i rozwój były przedmiotem wydanej w 2011 roku innej książki Romana Kuźniara Pozimnowojenne dwudziestolecie, choć wtedy jeszcze nie posługiwano się powszechnie pojęciem „liberalnego porządku”. Dekada zmierzchu obejmuje zasadniczo okres od zachodniej interwencji w Libii w 2011 roku po upadek Kabulu w końcu 2021 roku. Prezentacja życia międzynarodowego w tym czasie jest zatem nieco skrzywiona pod kątem lepszego ukazania schorzeń wewnętrznych, na które okazał się podatny liberalny porządek, błędów Zachodu w stosunkach zewnętrznych, jak i wzrostu potencjału mocarstw kontestujących ten porządek. Przy wszystkich zasługach, jakie liberalny porządek oddał życiu międzynarodowemu, okazał się fazą w ewolucji ładu międzynarodowego. Co po nim nastąpi i kiedy to się definitywnie stanie – jeszcze nie wiemy.Książka z pewnością będzie pożyteczna tak dla studentów różnych kierunków nauk politycznych, jak i dla wszystkich zainteresowanych współczesną problematyką międzynarodową.

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A TULAJDONVÁLTÁS FOLYAMATA ROMÁNIA GAZDASÁGI ÁTALAKULÁSÁBAN

Author(s): Árpád Szabó / Language(s): Hungarian

Beginning with the middle of the XX. century, the majority of the Central and East European population has lived most of its life subjected to the experiments of a political, economical and social environment ─ which finally proved itself to be totally unsuccessful. Subsequent to World War II, the Central and Eastern European countries got under the influence of the Soviet Union and were compelled to live and coexist with that system. The system itself bore a different name in almost every country, but there were, nevertheless, some mutually characteristic features. The socialist system collapsed between 1989 and 1991. Many things have changed ever since. During the last two decades most of the countries in the region have become members of the NATO, and the European Union. From political point of view, there is political partition with due and democratically elected parliaments and governments. When choosing my research subject, I have chosen to look into the Romanian process of change of property, focusing on the process of privatization. Though only a few, in comparison with the other Central and Eastern European countries, but there have already been elaborated comprehensive studies [Earle-Sapatoru, 1993; Earle-Telegdy, 1998; Negrescu, 2000; Telegdy, 2001]. Therefore, I am not going to analyse in detail the process itself. My book consists of three major units. I define the basic terms and I present the hypotheses of the research in the first part of the first unit. In the second part of the first unit I make an overview of the international literature dealing with the economic transition in Central and Eastern Europe, and especially with the early premises of privatization. The second unit compares the features of transition in Romania and Hungary, the two countries being part of the same region. The third unit of the book deals with the privatization of agriculture and consists of three chapters. These chapters describe the impact of privatization on the land-structure, the agricultural machinery and the agricultural production. The research of the privatization in agriculture was financed by the Hungarian Academy of Sciences and it was a part of a larger strategic research programme called "The privatization of Agriculture in Transylvania". I have done my part of research together with students both from the Babeș─BolyaiUniversity of Cluj and Sapientia University. The book is concluded with the due findings of my research followed by the list of references.

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