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Russia’s best enemy. Russian policy towards the United States in Putin’s era

Author(s): Marek Menkiszak / Language(s): English

Relations between Russia and the United States are characterised by an asymmetry against Russia, whose expectations vis-à-vis the US remain unmet. The dynamics of Russia’s policy towards the US in the last sixteen years has been one of cyclic fluctuations. The recurrent scheme starts with a normalisation and positive developments in mutual relations at the onset of each new US president’s term, and end with an escalation of tensions and a crisis at the end of each presidency. Russia is too weak to be recognised by the United States as an equal partner or opponent, but too strong to be willing or able to accept the status of an inequitable, tactical ally of the US. Moreover, Moscow has hardly anything to offer the US in a positive sense, apart from possibly limiting the negative impacts of its policies on Washington’s interests. Making predictions about Russian-American relations at this moment is very risky. In the most likely scenario, the traditional pattern will again be repeated with Donald Trump’s new administration. However, that does not mean that Russia will inevitably suffer a strategic defeat, as Moscow may take advantage of the further weakening of the United States and the West.

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The Serbian Political Emigration in Western Europe 1945–1956

Author(s): Kosta Nikolić / Language(s): English

The book on the Serbian political emigration in Western Europe after World War II consists of two main parts. The first part is devoted to biography of General Miodrag Damjanović; second part explores the forming of the Serbian political emigration after the defeat of Serbian and Yugoslav anti-communist military forces at the end of the war. Political emigration occurred in Italy, Germany and Great Britain. Many of these people later moved to the United States of America and Australia. This book examines their lives. The biography of Miodrag Damjanović, a General in the Army of the Kingdom of Serbia, presents a life story of a Serbian officer, a representative of the military elite whose peak was reached just before WW II, only to experience a steep downfall that at the same time meant the destruction of their career, as well as of the society whose prisoners they were and whom they served faithfully.

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Светът през XX век

Author(s): Plamen Tzvetkov / Language(s): Bulgarian

Ignorance towards world history can lead to severe distortions in the national psyche. Even today, Bulgarians either rejoice as the greatest nation, surrounded by enemies, for some reason, or as a hopelessly lagging nation. The book offers the most fateful events and processes from the history of mankind in the twentieth century. During this century, people entered space, found the computer but at the same time faced the threat of nuclear self-destruction and were struck by a new type of plague known as AIDS. The planet became narrow. Clothing, life-style and food are uniform. The globalization, symbolized by both McDonald's fast food and Chinese restaurants, has its furious opponents, but also enthusiastic followers. Current Handbook aims to acquaint students with those historical events and processes in the history of Europe and the world in the twentieth century that directly impact human civilization, and the beginning of the 21st century. Therefore, the approach is not typical for historical science - events and processes are not chronologically but problem-based considered.

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THE USE OF GEO-TARGETING DURING ELECTIONS

Author(s): Nora Biteniece,Kristina Van Sant / Language(s): English

Internet users around the globe demand different information and experiences that correspond to their geography. The most immediate difference is language: people want news, entertainment and services in their own language. Other things that vary by geography are culture, currency, climate and consumer norms. Geo-targeting is a common tool for targeting information to a specific geographical area and is widely used in digital marketing, in combination with information gleaned from available user data about consumer preferences, to deliver location-specific content. Itis a cost-effective way to match information with consumers.

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RISKS AND VULNERABILITIES IN THE WESTERN BALKANS

Author(s): Rufin Zamfir / Language(s): English

The Western Balkans (WB) have come into the international spotlight as an arena for big power competition. In their foreign policy orientation, the region’s six countries — Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Serbia — all share Euro-Atlantic affiliations, although the degree of affiliation varies. Internally, functional and structural weaknesses — whether Albania’s legacy of an isolationist communist dictatorship or the consequence of the violent dissolution of Yugoslavia in the other countries—open doors for hostile foreign actors to project their influence. The environment is rife with ethnic tension, border disputes, and neighbourly disagreements. All of these countries are developing democracies that have yet to fully recover from the aftermath of the Yugoslav wars. Their Euro-Atlantic orientation is currently a matter of tense debate. While Albania, Montenegro and North Macedonia have become NATO members, Serbia oscillates between East and West, its EU candidate status notwithstanding. Although EU membership is still uncertain for the Western Balkan countries, all six have expressed their willingness to join the Union but are advancing down this path at different speeds.

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TOWARDS RULE OF LAW IN THE DIGITAL ENVIRONMENT

Author(s): Filippo Raso,Vineta Mēkone / Language(s): English

This report summarizes an invite-only workshop held in Riga, Latvia on 12 December 2018 that focused on exploring which legal and ethical principles can promote the safety and reliability of the digital environment and reduce its risks to democracy worldwide.

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Democracy at Risk. The Growth of Nationalism and Extreme Right Parties as Threat to the EU

Author(s): Ewa Rokicka,Jeremy Leaman,Dieter Eißel / Language(s): English

The book analyses the threats to democracy that are associated with the rise of extreme-right parties and xenophobia in European Union countries. The authors show that the growing distrust towards democratic institutions and the increasing strength of populism and nationalism are connected with persistent inequalities and the malign focus on immigrants as scapegoats for the misery. Case studies from Germany, Great Britain, and Poland examine the details of the anti-democratic movements in these countries. They demonstrate the real threats to democracy and peaceful coexistence, and to the very future of the European project, its principles of solidarity and its political ambitions of convergence through mutual support. The reader will find in the book extensive empirical material outlining the situation in the European Union, along with proposals for solving the region’s social, economic and political dilemmas, for reversing the trends of fragmentation and for revitalising Europe’s democratic culture.

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Simpozij - Menadžment u zdravstvu s posebnim osvrtom na kardiovaskularne bolesti

Author(s): / Language(s): English

The Committee for Cardiovascular Pathology of the Department of Medical Sciences of the Academy of Sciences and Arts of Bosnia and Herzegovina over the past years organized following symposiums which resulted with publications of the Academy of Sciences and Arts of Bosnia and Herzegovina (ANUBiH): 1. Symposium: “I work with heart”, ANUBiH, 2010; 2. International Symposium “Pulmonary Artery Hypertension”, ANUBiH, 2011, Book no: CXXXIX/39; 3. Symposium: “The Risk Factors for Development of Cardiovascular Diseases”, ANUBiH, 2011, Book no: CXLI/40; 4. Symposium: “Congenital Heart Defects”, ANUBiH, 2012, Book no: CL/42; 5. International Symposium: “Perspectives in Paediatric Cardiology” (Dubrovnik), ANUBiH, 2012, Book no: CLI/43; 6. Symposium: “Rhythm disturbances in children and adults”, ANUBiH, 2013; 7. International Symposium: “Acquired Heart Disease”, ANUBiH, 2014, Book no: CLVIII/45; 8. International Scientific Symposium: “Fetal medicine: from Leonardo da Vinci up Today”, ANUBiH, 2015, Book no: CLIX/46; 9. International Symposium: “Mitral Valve Diseases in Children and Adults”, ANUBiH, 2017, Book no: CLXVIII/49...

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Pretpostavke i pravci unapređenja kvalitete života i kreiranja stimulativnog okruženja za povratnike

Author(s): Muris Čičić,Mirko Pejanović,Lejla Turulja,Maja Arslanagić-Kalajdžić,Selma Kadić-Maglajlić,Melika Husić-Mehmedović,Amra Avdagić / Language(s): Bosnian,Croatian,Serbian

Cilj Studije Pretpostavke i pravci unapređenja kvaliteta života i kreiranja stimulativnog okruženja za povratnike jeste analiza ukupnog zadovoljstva građana BiH kvalitetom života, te općeg blagostanja, kao i dovođenje rezultata u kontekst emigracijskih aspiracija i želje za napuštanjem zemlje. Pored toga, obzirom na stanje izazvano pandemijom COVID-19, studija adresira i pitanje uticaja pandemije na kvalitet života i opće raspoloženje građana BiH. Studija sadrži analizu stavova građana BiH o nekoliko dimenzija kvaliteta života koja je bazirana na namjenski prikupljenim primarnim podacima iz 2020. godine na uzorku opće populacije BiH te povratnika u BiH (oni koji su živjeli van BiH i vratili se u proteklih 10 godina). Na bazi prikupljenih I analiziranih podataka, te u skladu s literaturom, studija predlaže mjere koje su najčešće relevantne na nižim nivoima vlasti (npr. lokalni ili kantonalni), budući da se temama kvaliteta života i povratka najčešće bave ti nivoi vlasti. Tako da se predlaže tzv. top-down pristup u kojem će se mjere spuštati s nacionalnog ili entitetskih nivoa, za unaprijed definisanu i planiranu svrhu, na kantonalni, odnosno lokalni nivo. U Studiji je prepoznata važnost posebnog tretmana i kreiranje posebnih mjera kojima će se targetirati mladi kada su u pitanju emigracije. Uslijed permanentne krize u socijalnom i političkom razvoju bosanskohercegovačkog društva i države, populacija mladih se nalazi u veoma nepovoljnom socijalnom, ekonomskom i psihofizičkom stanju. Zbog toga je kod mladih, više nego kod drugih društvenih skupina, izražena motivacija za emigriranje u evropske države, članice Evropske unije. U Studiji su izdvojene mjere koje se odnose na mlade, kao što su: praksa podrške poduzetništvu mladih, subvencioniranje rješavanja stambenog pitanja mladih, stipendiranje đaka u srednjim školama i studenata na visokoškolskim ustanovama, politike kreditiranja studenata pod povoljnim uslovima.

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Osnaživanje uloge rada s mladima u sprječavanju zamiranja gradova. Priručnik za rad s mladima u zamirućim gradovima

Author(s): Cristina Bandeira,Moritz Borchardt,Nikola Buković,Adriana Gomes,Jorge Gomes,Élia Henriques,Petra Jakovina,Ana Lancha Montes,Elena Mena Sánchez,Edite Pereira,Tristán Pertiñez Blasco,Daniel Pittl,Ammalia Podlaszewska / Language(s): Croatian

Mnogo toga je već napisano o uzrocima i posljedicama zamiranja gradova, kao i o politikama i strategijama planiranja. Međutim, razina kvalitete informacija koje se tiču transnacionalne perspektive nije posebno visoka, s obzirom na to da su dosadašnje studije bile više usredotočene na velike gradove i baratale s empirijskim podacima koji su u drugi plan stavljali kontekstualni utjecaj na lokalnu dinamiku (Wolff, Wiechmann; 2017). Zamirući grad je grad koji je doživio gubitak stanovništva, pad zaposlenosti i društvene probleme koji su simptomi strukturne krize (Martinez-Fernandez; 2012). To pokazuje koliko je proces zamiranja složen te stoga zahtijeva detaljnije objašnjenje čimbenika koji ga potiču. Čini se kako je presudni faktor za napuštanje mjesta prebivališta, ideja kako u njemu za određenu osobu nema perspektive.

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Chinese Arctic Narratives: How Chinese Media is Approaching the Nordic-Arctic States

Author(s): Viesturs Bērziņš / Language(s): English

The world we live in is constantly changing. As Heraclitus once famously stated: ‘The only thing constant is change itself’. History has shown us that certain geographical regions can suddenly become the centre of attention. A territory that has caught international attention recently is the Arctic. A frozen, fairly untamed area that is mostly known for glaciers, polar bears, and endless wilderness is starting to emerge as a centrepiece of the global agenda. Minerals, vast waters for fishing and shipping, as well as strategic importance are some of the Arctic’s key points of attraction. Many states have expressed interest in extending their reach and developments in the Arctic. Yet, one of the states that is actively participating in Arctic endeavours is attracting more scholarly attention than the others – China. Not only is it located nearly 1500 kilometres away from the Arctic Circle, it also has one of the fastest growing economies in the world. This has led some experts to wonder whether it is possible for Arctic states to remain in complete control of the contested region. China’s interest in the region has resulted in it becoming one of thirteen observer states of the Arctic Council. The organisation can be considered the de facto most important intergovernmental forum for Arctic affairs.

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Disinformation in Democracies: Improving Societal Resilience to Disinformation

Author(s): Jon Hassain / Language(s): English

The Covid-19 pandemic has resulted in an array of counter-disinformation communication challenges. In response to this, individuals, governments, civil society, and commercial actors have adapted and evolved their own communications to provide us with tools to fight this ‘infodemic’. This report shares examples of innovative solutions, and hopes to encourage readers to think differently about their own communication challenges. Seven case studies have been selected and described as concisely as possible. Think inspirational coffee table book as opposed to a lengthy academic tome. Case studies presented in this article are notable not only for the interventions themselves, but how their underlying policies and conceptual frameworks allowed them to come to fruition. For example, the Finnish case study, a collaborative social media campaign, demonstrates how government policy can enable a whole-of-society approach to psychological resilience.

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ZAPAD 2021 Communication analysis: messages, narratives, (dis)information

Author(s): Valeriy Akimenko,Daivis Petraitis,Viktoras Daukšas,Balys Liubinavičius / Language(s): English

On 10-16 September 2021, Russia conducted the formal part of ZAPAD 2021, one in a cycle of annual military exercises which represent the culmination of training by the Russian Federation Armed Forces in a given year. As ‘Zapad’ (the Russian word for ‘west’) suggests, the exercise is centred on what Russia calls the Western strategic sector or ‘direction’. ZAPAD 2021 included Belarus. Accordingly, it was termed ‘a joint strategic exercise’, primarily to emphasise the participation of Belarus as well as that of the Russia-controlled Collective Security Treaty Organisation. ZAPAD 2021 was preceded by weeks of preparatory and associated exercises, and, as repeatedly emphasised by Russia, involved as many as 200,000 troops, drawn predominantly from Russia. ZAPAD 2021 included a powerful communication campaign in the form of messages and narratives, which this study identifies, explores, and explains. This study consists of two separate but interconnected parts: Part I looks at the exercise from the perspective of what the exercise signalled, both explicitly and implicitly. It deconstructs and groups these messages and narratives.

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Israel’s Palestinian Challenges: The State’s Identity, a Leadership Crisis and the “new” Middle East

Author(s): Karolina Zielińska / Language(s): English

The conflict with the Palestinian side is a long‑term existential challenge for Israel. It plays out on four levels: territory; population; national aspirations and identity; security. Each of them generates conditions that make a resolution of the dispute or its absence decisive for the future character of this state in terms of its ethnicity (will the majority of the population still be Jewish?) and political system (will it remain a democracy?), as well as its external and internal security. At the same time, the Palestinian question remains a matter of concern for the international community – particularly public opinion – which makes it a major issue in Israel’s international relations.

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The Beijing-Moscow Axis. The Foundations of an Asymmetric Alliance

Author(s): Michał Bogusz,Jakub Jakóbowski,Witold Rodkiewicz / Language(s): English

Never in history have relations between Moscow and Beijing been as close and warm as they are today. This rapprochement has been produced by three decades of consistent efforts by the political leaderships of Russia and China to strengthen mutual ties and deepen their cooperation in politics, military affairs, economy and ideology. The relationship that has emerged can be called an informal alliance. This alliance is based on the deep conviction shared by the Chinese and Russian ruling elites of the fundamental coincidence of their strategic interests and the ideological proximity between their authoritarian regimes. Hence, the nature of this alliance goes well beyond mere tactical expediency, even if it is not devoid of internal tensions.

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The Gordian Knot of the Caucasus. The Conflict Over Nagorno-Karabakh

Author(s): Wojciech Górecki / Language(s): English

The conflict over the state affiliation of Nagorno‑Karabakh, which has been ongoing since 1987 (and led to full‑scale war in 1992–94) has determined Armenia and Azerbaijan’s post‑Soviet history. It remains the greatest security challenge for both states, and still has a serious impact on their entire foreign and domestic policies. In both states the conflict has brought political elites to power who in the case of Armenia ruled the state until 2018, and in the case of Azerbaijan are still in power, and who have pre‑determined the homogenous nature of both Azerbaijan’s and Armenia’s societies. This latter is a result of mass expulsions and forced migrations, as well as intensive propaganda presented by both governments, who have exploited the struggle for Nagorno‑Karabakh in their state‑building narratives and have deliberately cultivated the images of their mutual enemy.

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The Long Shadow of the Treaty of Trianon. Hungary’s Struggles With the Past

Author(s): Andrzej Sadecki / Language(s): English

The 1920 Treaty of Trianon, which sealed Hungary’s loss of a third of its territory, is perceived as the country’s greatest national tragedy. The breakup of the multi-national Kingdom of Hungary, as a result of which large Hungarian-speaking populations found themselves in neighbouring countries, was a pivotal event which influenced Hungary’s national identity as well as its internal and foreign policies for the next one hundred years. Hungary responded to the Treaty of Trianon by developing various concepts to reclaim the lost territories, but also with efforts to build good relations with neighbours and develop policies towards the Hungarian minorities in other countries.

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National Leader Heydar Aliyev in the 100th Anniversary: Investigation in the Context of Turkey-Azerbaijan Relations

Author(s): / Language(s): Turkish,English,Azerbaijani

Tarixin ixtiyarı dövrlərində hər bir xalqın tarixi taleyində şəxsiyyətlərin, liderlərin rolu əvəzsizdir. Azərbaycan xalqının tarixi talehinin XX yüzilin son 30 ilinə və XXI yüzilin əvvəlinə təsadüf edən tarixi və taleyi ümummilli lider Heydər Əliyev şəxsiyyəti və onun əzəmətli ideyaları üzərində qərar tutur. Türkiyə - Azərbaycan dostluğunun-qardaşlığının tarixi kökləri, mədəni bağlarının tarixi qədimdir. Azərbaycan ikinci dəfə öz müstəqilliyini bərpa etdikdən sonra, xüsusilə Heydər Əliyevin 1993-cü ilin iyununda ikinci dəfə siyasi hakimiyyətə qayıdışından sonra Azərbaycanın beynəlxalq münasibətlər sistemində özünəməxsus yer tutmasında və dünya siyasi proseslərinə inteqrasiyasında balanslaşdırılmış, düşünülmüş bir sistem formalaşdırıldı. Türkiyə Cümhuriyyəti ilə münasibətlərin daha yüksək səviyyədə və etibarlı təməllər üzərində qurulmasına çox böyük önəm verməsi idi. Heydər Əliyev ölkəmizin Türkiyə ilə münasibətlərə necə böyük önəm verdiyini ilk günlərdən bəyan edərək deyirdi ki, bizim ölkəmiz-Türkiyə Cümhuriyyəti və Azərbaycan Respublikası dost-qardaş ölkələridir. Xalqlarımızın birliyi, qardaşlığı və dostluğu əsrlərdən- əsrlərə keçərkən formalaşmış və yeni mərhələsinə çatmışdır. Həm XX yüzilin əvvəllərində həm də sonunda Azərbaycanın müstəqilliyini ilk dəfə Türkiyə tanımışdır. Böyük öndər Mustafa Kamal Atatürkün: “Azərbaycanın sevincisevincimiz, kədəri- kədərimizdir”. Ulu öndər Heydər Əliyevin: “Bir millət, iki dövlət” tezisləri milli-mənəvi dəyərlərimizin tarixən, ortaqlığını, xalqlarımızın mədəniyyətinin, incəsənətinin, musiqisinin, bütövlükdə mənəvi dünyasının bir-biri ilə təbii tarixi qarşılıqlı əlaqədə olduğunu da əks etdirir. Müstəqil dövlətçiliyimizi möhkəm dayaqlar üzərində qurub yaratmaqla yanaşı, Heydər Əliyev azərbaycançılıq ideyasını da dövlətçilik müstəvisinə gətirib onu milli məfkurəyə çevirdi. Qeyd edək ki, Heydər Əliyevin irəli sürdüyü azərbaycançılıq məfkurəsi heç də ümumtürk mənsubiyyətini inkar etmirdi, əksinə türkçülüyün müxtəlif coğrafi-siyasi mənalarda özünəməxsus milli formada, vətən və milli dövlət müstəvisində yeni mənzərəsini ortaya qoyurdu. Hal-hazırda Azərbaycan Respublikası ilə Türkiyə Cümhuriyyəti arasında əsası Ulu Öndər Heydər Əliyev tərəfindən qoyulmuş qardaşlıq münasibətləri özünün ən yüksək mərhələsindədir. Bu isə Prezident İlham Əliyevin və Türkiyə Cümhuriyyətinin prezidenti Rəcəb Tayyib Ərdoğanın müdrik və uzaqgörən siyasətinin birbaşa nəticəsidir. Azərbaycan ikinci Qarabağ savaşında da qardaş Türkiyənin mənəvi dəstəyini heç bir zaman unutmayacaq. Azərbaycan-Türkiyə münasibətləri zamanın çətin sınaqlarından keçərək, öz doğruluğunu, zəruriliyini, gərəkliyini, perspektivliyini, həyatiliyini nümayiş etdirməklə etnik kökləri, dili və mənəviyyatı, adət-ənənələri bir olan xalqlarımızın birliyinin və birlikdə inkişaf və tərəqqisinin təməl daşıdır. Ulu öndərin hər zaman qeyd etdiyi, Azərbaycan-Türkiyə dostluğu və qardaşlığı sarsılmazdır, əbədidir və xalqlarımızın qarşılıqlı inkişafı və tərəqqisinin hərəkətverici qüvvəsidir. Bu toplunun hazırlanmasının təşəbbüskarları, kitabda yazısı olan həmkarlarımızın da əməyi yüksək dəyərləndirilməlidir.

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G20 Ülkeleri İçin Finansal Baskının Ölçülmesi ve Finansal Baskı Yayılım Etkisinin İncelenmesi

Author(s): Hande Çalişkan Terzioğlu / Language(s): Turkish

The study aims to calculate a financial stress index for the G-20 countries, which are of great importance for the global economy, and to examine the transmission of financial stress between the countries in question. In this context, the study aims to reveal the vulnerability and stability of G-20 economies against external financial stress shocks. The financial stress index for each country is calculated by considering five sub-market indicators (monetary, bond, stock exchange, foreign exchange, and banking sector). Accordingly, whether the financial stress indices are sufficient to track recessions has been evaluated from a historical perspective. Then, by considering the integration among countries, the financial stress transmission relationship between the countries is examined between 2006 and 2020 by using the dynamic connectedness analysis suggested by Diebold and Yilmaz (2012). Accordingly, it is determined that the financial stress in these countries increased during the crisis periods. Empirical results show the financial stress transmitter and receiver countries during financial crisis periods. According to the net directional spillover analysis results, as financial stress receiver, while Indonesia ranks first among the countries in question, Japan ranks last. On the other hand, as financial stress transmitter, while the UK ranks first among the countries in question, Argentina ranks last. Finally, while the net spillover analysis results highlight the UK, the US, and France as the most important countries that transmit financial stress to the rest of the countries, Argentina, Turkey and Indonesia are determined the countries that most important financial stress receiver.

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Seeking Legitimacy: Considerations for Strategic Communications in the Digital Age

Author(s): Emily Harding,Harshana Ghoorhoo,Julia Dickson / Language(s): English

While the Soviet Union in particular developed well-honed strategies for propaganda during the Cold War, the last ten years have seen an explosion in the speed and reach of a new breed of disinformation. Messages now travel far and wide on social media at the speed of thought, as people look to Twitter and TikTok for news. Governments find themselves attempting to sort out which stories will pass and which stories will stick, as they struggle to bet limited resources against emerging problems. Democracies are particularly vulnerable to disinformation because laws are designed to protect free speech, not to protect the state from speech. Propaganda spreads easily across borders in the digital age. One recently uncovered web portal served multiple potential sympathizers in several languages; it provided pro-Kremlin activists from many countries with templates for letters opposing the destruction of Soviet monuments, including offers to help write and translate the letters into English and French. By one estimate, dozens of well-crafted pieces of pro-Kremlin disinformation appear every week—more than any country can handle alone.

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