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Antiratni pokret u Bosni i Hercegovini devedesetih godina 20. stoljeća

Author(s): Edin Omerčić / Language(s): Bosnian

U tekstu će biti riječi o postojanju širokog kruga političke, intlektualne i kulturno-umjetničke opozicije koja je od kraja osamdesetih godina radila prije svega na iznalaženju rješenja izlaska iz jugoslovenske krize, potom na spriječavanju izbijanja ratnih sukoba, te na okončanju istih, odnosno kroz kulturno-umjetnički angažman tokom rata nastojala ukazati na stradanja civilnog stanovništva. Građom i izvorima koji se iznose i koriste u tekstu pokušava se tema osvijetliti iz više različitih perspektiva. U prvom dijelu teksta ukratko se izlaže kontekst u kojem su djelovale nenacionalističke organizacije i političke stranke, antiratna i građanska udruženja. Zatim će se ukazati na masovne antiratne proteste i na pojedinačne individualane pokušaje adaptacije stanovništva na novonastale ratne okolnosti.

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ZBORNIK RADOVA TREĆE AKADEMIJE POLITIČKE ODGOVORNOSTI

Author(s): Zlatiborka Popov Momčinović,Alen Kristić,Nasiha Pozder,Željko Ivanković,Dino Abazović,Drago Bojić,Sabina Čehajić-Clancy,Vjekoslav Domljan,Sarina Bakić,Ivan Šarčević / Language(s): Bosnian,Croatian,Serbian

Fondacija Boris Divković formirana je u ljeto 2013. godine u Sarajevu. Ideja osnivača je da se kroz rad Fondacije što veći broj mladih ljudi, kako u našoj zemlji tako i u regiji, upozna i uči odgovornoj političkoj teoriji i praksi. Iako Fondacija djeluje na socijalno liberalnim polazištima, odlučilo se ovim obrazovnim procesom obuhvatiti i mlade ljude koji su dijelom različitih organizacija, političkih ili nevladinih, drugačijih ubjeđenja, ali i one koji individualno žele unaprijediti svoja znanja o političkoj kulturi. Pitanje sprege morala i politike bilo je od velike važnosti za našeg kolegu Borisa Divkovića i upravo je jedna od prvih značajnijih aktivnosti Fondacije organizacija Akademije političke odgovornosti u kojoj su učestvovali mladi brojnih političkih orijentacija i profila. U novembru 2016. godine održana je treća Akademija političke odgovornosti, a zbog velikog interesa polaznika u maju ove godine organiziran je i njen drugi modul. Teme su obuhvatile: opšti pojam političke kulture, njen razvoj i važnost, dominantnu paradigmu regionalne političke kulture iz perspektive koncepcije svjetskog etosa, religiju kao podcjenjeno mjesto političke socijalizacije. Razgovarali smo o ekonomiji u području politike, kulturi sjećanja. Također, predstavljeni su globalni politički portreti ličnosti poput Vaclava Havela i Wangari Muta Maathai, te regionalni politički portreti kao što su: Zoran Đinđić, Vlado Gotovac, Bogić Bogićević I Boris Divković. Drugi modul išao je detaljno u političko-ekonomske paradigme sa stajališta svjetskog etosa, religiozne socijalne nauke, itd. Posebna pažnja posvećena je ekološkim temama.

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Protecția temporară a cetățenilor ucraineni, ca urmare a invaziei militare ruse din Ucraina

Author(s): Bianca-Ioana Petcu / Language(s): Romanian Publication Year: 0

Following the military invasion by the forces of the Russian army launched on 24.02.2022 in Ukraine, at the level of its neighboring states and beyond, there was a massive influx of people displaced from this country, the groups of people being made up both from Ukrainian citizens and and from citizens of other states that, at the time of the invasion, were living in or transiting Ukraine. This aspect determined the creation of a mechanism for quick and appropriate measures both at European and national level to manage this phenomenon. At the European level, on 04.03.2023, the Council issued the Decision (EU) 2022/382 and activated the temporary protection provided by Directive 2001/55/EC regarding the minimum standards for granting temporary protection, in the event of a massive influx of displaced persons, and the measures to promote a balance between the efforts of the member states to welcome these people and bear the consequences of this reception, all displaced persons from Ukraine, who entered the territory of the EU after 24.02.2022, benefiting from this measure. At the national level, on 18.03.2022, it was issued the Government Decision no. 367 regarding the establishment of conditions for ensuring temporary protection as well as for the modification and completion of some normative acts in the field of foreigners, which regulated the granting of temporary protection on the territory of Romania. Temporary protection is an emergency mechanism that applies in the event of a massive influx of people and aims to provide immediate and collective protection. The aim is to ease pressure on national asylum systems and allow displaced people to enjoy harmonized rights across the European Union.

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The controversial US withdrawal from the Iranian nuclear deal and its international consequences

Author(s): Miroslav Tůma / Language(s): English

On May 8, 2018, US President Donald Trump went through with his threat and, this time, has not submitted his certification of the implementation of the Iranian nuclear agreement to the US Congress for approval. According to Trump, the document is the “worst deal” of Obama Democratic administration. He made his negative decision despite Iranʼs positive performance in the inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

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Is There a Threat of a Repeated Deployment of Nuclear “Eurorockets” From the Cold War Period in Europe?

Author(s): Miroslav Tůma / Language(s): English

Will the U.S. unilateral withdrawal from the American-Soviet INF Treaty of 1987 become a possible reality? The Treaty prohibits ground-launched shorter and the middle-range missiles (500–5,500 kms) with nuclear or conventional warheads. The Treaty´s security significance and its main parameters, the legal framework of the withdrawal and the reasons of both parties for accusing each other of violating the Treaty, are discussed in the article as well. In its conclusion the article, among other things, explains the context of the possible termination of the Treaty, and its consequences for the U.S.-Russia arms-control architecture.

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The crucial and fateful nuclear-arms dilemma

Author(s): Miroslav Tůma / Language(s): English

Nuclear weapons are an existential threat to humanity, as are the increasingly intense manifestation of climate change. The Reflection describes more broadly the main risk factors of this threat, including artificial intelligence (AI). In this context, it highlights the impasse which the US-Russian arms control process and strategic dialogue have reached as a result of their strained relations and the ongoing war in Ukraine. It also analyses the expected developments in the nuclear weapon field, taking into account the US Pentagon’s warning about the possible growth of China’s nuclear arsenal. In particular, it concludes by noting the main dilemmas for further development in this area: either the initiation of arms control and risk reduction negotiations by the major nuclear powers or the growing spiral of a costly and security-risk-laden nuclear arms race. The possibility of an ethical and moral commitment by the five permanent members of the UN Security Council, the so-called P5 (the US, Russia, China, France and the UK), to “responsible nuclear behaviour“, which is promoted by the US administration, appears as a temporary solution to this security crisis.

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Scénáře světové politiky 2012–2013

Author(s): Tomáš Weiss,Vít Střítecký,Lucia Najšlová,Petr Kratochvíl,Michal Kořan,Nik Hynek,Vladimír Handl,Rudolf Fürst,Jan Eichler,Mats Braun,Vít Beneš / Language(s): Czech

The document presents a collection of speculative scenarios for world politics in 2012-2013, employing a scenario-building method to enrich foreign policy debate. It discusses the potential impacts of various global and regional developments on the Czech Republic and the EU, including fiscal pacts, the role of Germany in the Eurozone, Central European dynamics, EU relations with Turkey and China, the aftermath of American elections, the Iranian crisis, the situation in Afghanistan, the Asia-Pacific region, and Russian elections. The scenarios are not precise forecasts but internally consistent hypotheses that connect actors with future effects, aiming to capture key dynamics and possible consequences of otherwise conceivable actions.

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World Politics: Scenarios 2012–2013

Author(s): Vít Beneš,Mitchell Belfer,Mats Braun,Jan Eichler,Rudolf Fürst,Vladimír Handl,Nik Hynek,Michal Kořan,Petr Kratochvíl,Lucia Najšlová,Vít Střítecký,Tomáš Weiss / Language(s): English

Scenario building was first introduced in the U.S. security community in the 1950s. In RAND projects, “scenarios” (with the term consciously borrowed from the Holywood film industry to emphasize their storytelling character) evolved into a sophisticated auxiliary means of political decision-making. The method was thus born from the spirit of the Cold War, yet soon it found its way into the private sector, where it has served to manage corporate risk. More recently, scenarios witnessed a rise in popularity also in the think tank community as outcomes relevant for policy makers due to their potential to bridge theoretical knowledge with the needs of political practice (early warning potential) and as a means of broadening and deepening the space for public debate about global politics.

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Scénáře vývoje mezinárodního bezpečnostního prostředí (2020)

Author(s): Vít Beneš,Mats Braun,Marek Čejka,Tomáš Dopita,Jan Eichler,Rudolf Fürst,Vladimír Handl,Michal Kořan,Petr Kratochvíl,Vít Střítecký,Lukáš Tichý / Language(s): Czech

The document discusses the complexity of the global security environment and the emergence of hyper-risks due to interconnected anthropogenic systems. It suggests increasing resilience against hyper-risks by dividing existing systems into smaller units and creating circuit breakers to prevent cascading global reactions. The publication explores creative thinking about the future without precise probabilistic predictions, acknowledging the sudden and unexpected nature of significant events in complex systems, famously termed "black swans" by Nassim Taleb. It also examines geopolitical risks, the relative decline of US power, and the potential for a G-zero World scenario. The project's methodology is based on the complexity of the security environment, rejecting precise probabilistic forecasts and instead offering internally consistent hypotheses about future developments to aid in strategic thinking.

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Scénáře vývoje mezinárodního bezpečnostního prostředí (2017)

Author(s): Vít Beneš,Mats Braun,Marek Čejka,Tomáš Dopita,Jan Eichler,Rudolf Fürst,Vladimír Handl,Michal Kořan,Petr Kratochvíl,Vít Střítecký,Lukáš Tichý / Language(s): Czech

Držíte v rukou závěrečnou studii vznikající v rámci projektu TA ČR Scénáře mezinárodního bezpečnostního prostředí. Uzavírá se jí tříletý cyklus kolektivních spekulací týmu soustředěného v Ústavu mezinárodních vztahů o možnostech vývoje tohoto prostředí. Projekce, které vznikly jako výstupy těchto spekulací, nemají ambici být přesnými předpověďmi. Vysoká komplexita mezinárodního bezpečnostního prostředí jako systému, kde dochází k dynamické interakci množství předem daných skutečností, hybných sil a kritických neznámých, možnost takové předpovědi téměř vylučuje. Naše scénáře sledují jiný cíl: kombinací prediktivního (jaká budoucnost bude) a explorativního (jaká budoucnost může být) přístupu a záměrnou vícečetností podobně pravděpodobných projekcí vývoje v každém sektoru bezpečnostního prostředí být nástroji tvořivého promýšlení možných budoucností, rozšiřování horizontu úvah o tom, jak přispět k naplňování jejich z hlediska české zahraniční politiky nejvýhodnějších variant a zkoušení zažitých předpokladů o tom, co bezpečnostním prostředím, ve kterém se Česká republika nachází, hýbe.

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České balancování Čínské a Tchajwanské agendy: Improvizací netřeba

Author(s): Rudolf Fürst / Language(s): Czech

The contradictions surrounding the terminated Prague-Beijing treaty and the planned trips of Senate Presidents Jaroslav Kubera and his successor Miroslav Vystrčil to Taiwan have unexpectedly problematicized the view of Czech policy balancing between Taiwan and China. Will our Taiwanese contacts disrupt relations with the politically more important China and damage our economic interests in the PRC? The well-managed practice of simultaneously balancing Czech interests in Taiwan and China, lasting over two decades, has unexpectedly become complicated and has become the subject of sharp disputes about supporting Taiwan and defending national dignity from pressure from the Chinese embassy. The following text recaps the experience of the Czech Republic's dual diplomacy towards the PRC and Taiwan and identifies a crisis of confidence in the use of options that are easily offered, that have proven successful, and that the Czech Republic learned to manage already in the 1990s. The escalation of the Czech domestic debate is observed in connection with the split in Czech policy towards China and its domestic politicization. Taiwan has become another example of how the Czech public debate in mediatized abbreviations shifts to identity stories that distract attention from the essence, which is the common pragmatic need of the state's foreign policy. The conclusion recommends a return to proven practice and consideration of strengthening the positions of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the government, which should not be exposed to the role of bystanders. Visits by Czech state representatives to Taiwan at the highest level - the President, Prime Minister, line minister and chairmen of both chambers of the Parliament of the Czech Republic - for substantive and relevant reasons, it is not necessary to reject them a priori, but to proceed with them as exceptional steps subject to the consensus of politically responsible actors. In this context, the trip of the President of the Senate to Taiwan is insufficiently justified.

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