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Socijalni kapital

Author(s): Berto Šalaj / Language(s): Croatian

Knjiga Socijalni kapital: Hrvatska u komparativnoj perspektivi počela je nastajati kad sam 1998. primljen na Fakultet političkih znanosti Sveučilišta u Zagrebu kao znanstveni novak. Primljen sam na projekt “Politička kultura u Hrvatskoj” i, iako sam prije toga diplomirao na studiju politologije, tek tada sam dobio priliku da se na temeljit i sustavan način upoznam s konceptom političke kulture i s političko-kulturalnim pristupom u političkoj znanosti. Temeljna ideja toga pristupa može se sažeti u slijedećoj rečenici: demokracija ne može funkcionirati bez demokrata. Politička povijest, ali i suvremena politološka istraživanja, pokazuju nam da za stabilno i učinkovito funkcioniranje demokracije nije dovoljno uspostaviti demokratske institucije i institute, nego su potrebni i građani koji su internalizirali demokratske vrijednosti i obrasce ponašanja. Uvažavajući te uvide, u radu na projektu usredotočio sam se na procese kojima se politička kultura razvija, odnosno na procese političke socijalizacije, a unutar toga posebno na procese koji mogu potaknuti razvoj poželjnoga, demokratskog tipa političke kulture. Riječ je, dakle, o političkom obrazovanju, pa je i moja magistarska radnja tematizirala procese političkog obrazovanja u školama. Nakon toga moglo se očekivati da se i u doktorskoj disertaciji bavim tim temama.

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Srpski ratovi rečima 1844-2000. Fragmenti iz istorije političke propagande

Author(s): Mihailo Bjelica / Language(s): Serbian

Prvi moj zadatak u Institutu za novinarstvo bio je da analiziram sadržaj desetak vodećih jugoslovenskih listova prema projektu jednog apoljnjeg saradnika, metodologa, koji je prethodno bio na nekoj specijalizaciji u Americi. Koliko se sećam, glavno moje "otkriće" bilo je da se svi analizirani listovi uređuju po agitpropovskom šablonu - da veličaju politiku vladajuće partije i kritikuju svakog ko se ne slaže sa tom politikom. Novu fazu u mom istraživačkom radu predstavlja ulazak u istorijske arhive, a to se dogodilo krajem šezdesetih, kada sam prijavio doktorsku disertaciju pod nazivom "Počeci političke štampe u Srbiji 1834-1872". Prekopavajući staru arhivsku građu, ustanovio sam da su svi politički listovi onog vremena primali finansijsku pomoć iz državne ili neke druge kase, što znači da su bili u službi propagande. Rezultate istraživanja ubjavljivao sam u svojim knjigama i raznim zbornicima sa naučnih skupova. U poslednjoj deceniji dvadesetog veka Srbija je imala više nedaća nego mnoge evropske države za ceo vek: raspad SFRJ, rat u okruženju, pa rat na sopstvenoj teritoriji, međunarođne sankcije, hiperinfiacija, nezaposlenost, političke svađe i podele. To je i decenija žestokog medijskog rata koji je srpska vlast vodila protiv stranih država i domaće opozicije. [...]

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Volby do Poslanecké sněmovny 2013

Author(s): Otto Eibl,Miloš Gregor,Lenka Hrbková,Tomáš Maceček,Roman Chytilek,Peter Spáč,Vlastimil Havlík,Michal Nový,Kamil Gregor,Michal Pink,Petr Voda,Eva Kneblová,Jakub Šedo / Language(s): Czech

This paper offers a comprehensive look at the early parliamentary electionsof 2013. Analyzing the platforms of the individual political parties reveals increasing areas of commonality in their platform statements. This raises the question of whether it is still worthwhile to create and read such platforms. This is particularly true in view of the documented weakness of the relationship between Czech voters and political parties in general. Equally interesting is the contradiction between the meaning still accorded the platforms by voters, who may consider them an important factor in their decision-making process, and the details of the individual platforms themselves. It would appear that people tend to expose themselves only to those ideas with which they agree a priori. The level of exposure may then even end up strengthening their existing views (and this is also true for the opposite case: a confrontation with information which contradicts the original viewpoint may paradoxically strengthen that viewpoint).

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The End of the Mueller Investigation and Its Implications for U.S. Domestic and Foreign Policy

Author(s): Mateusz Piotrowski / Language(s): English

According to the U.S. attorney general, Special Counsel Robert Mueller found no evidence that President Donald Trump or his campaign staff cooperated with Russia during the 2016 U.S. presidential election. Therefore, the Democrats’ goal will not be impeachment but to create a message about Trump’s unworthiness for re-election. This will be facilitated by the investigations initiated by them in congressional committees, and by other probes carried out by the U.S. judicial system. Trump will try to limit their effect by seeking successes in domestic and foreign policy, although no breakthrough in relations with Russia is to be expected.

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Próby wywierania wpływu przez Rosję na wybory prezydenckie we Francji

Author(s): Łukasz Jurczyszyn / Language(s): Polish

Rosja zbudowała we Francji sieci politycznego, gospodarczego i medialnego wpływu oddziałujące na znaczną część francuskiej elity i opinii publicznej. Wykorzystuje je w trwającej kampanii prezydenckiej, aby wesprzeć polityków przychylnych polityce rosyjskiej. Testem na ich skuteczność okażą się próby osłabienia pozycji zyskującego w sondażach socjalliberalnego kandydata Emmanuela Macrona, którego wybór byłby najmniej korzystny dla Rosji.

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DAYTONSKI MIROVNI SPORAZUM I BUDUĆNOST BOSNE I HERCEGOVINE

Author(s): / Language(s): Bosnian,Croatian,Serbian

Dvadeset prvog novembra 2015. godini navršilo se 20 godina od potpisivanja Daytonskog mirovnog sporazuma. U želji da ispune svoju društvenu i naučnu misiju dva odjeljenja Akademije nauka i umjetnosti Bosne i Hercegovine, Odjeljenje društvenih i Odjeljenje humanističkih nauka, inicirala su održavanje naučnog simpozija na temu Daytonski mirovni sporazum i budućnost Bosne i Hercegovine. Naučni simpozij je održan 19. novembra/studenoga 2015. godine u Akademiji nauka i umjetnosti Bosne i Hercegovine. Njegov koncept ustanovljen je u okviru Odjeljenja društvenih nauka i Odjeljenja humanističkih nauka. Prema njemu oblikovane su četiri tematske cjeline za koje su pozvani autori pripremili ukupno 19 referata. Dva referata su pripremljena iz oblasti istorijskih, četiri iz pravnih, pet iz ekonomskih te osam iz oblasti politološko-socioloških nauka i međunarodnih odnosa. Svi pripremljeni i izloženi referati predstavljaju rezultate pojedinačnog naučnog istraživanja složenog kompleksa pitanja koja se odnose na istorijski kontekst u kome je potpisan Daytonski mirovni sporazum i na njegovu primjenu u socijalnoj i političkoj zbilji tokom proteklih 20 godina.

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China's Influence in the Nordic-Baltic Information Environment: Latvia and Sweden

Author(s): / Language(s): English

Given its rapid economic growth and expanded geopolitical ambitions, China’s influence projection has grown globally. The World Economic Forum projected that China may overtake the U.S. as the world’s largest economy by 2024. The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), aimed at optimising and expanding China’s economic cooperation with the Eurasian continent, makes Europe a prime destination for Chinese investment. Countries in Europe have largely treated economic cooperation with China as an opportunity, and the Nordic-Baltic region (NB8) has not been an exception to this trend. However, several European countries have grown apprehensive regarding China’s intents, as economic cooperation has become a backdrop to undesirable political influence via bilateral and multilateral fora. At the same time, buoyed by pride from its rapid economic growth, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has become more assertive in defending its national interests, including in the South China Sea region and in response to Western critics of China’s expansionist foreign policy, undemocratic practices and human rights violations. In reaction to these developments, a growing number of European countries have started to look at China’s activities as a challenge or threat to national security. This shift has also become increasingly visible among the countries of the Nordic-Baltic region.

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China: the consequences of the ‘zero COVID’ strategy

Author(s): Michał Bogusz / Language(s): English

In the first half of 2020, it seemed that, with its ‘zero COVID’ strategy, China had outperformed many other countries in its efforts to contain the pandemic. Two years on, when COVID-19 is no longer a critical issue for most of the world, the pandemic situation in China, whose population has not acquired collective immunity, is becoming increasingly difficult. Furthermore, the economy is grappling with challenges that the rest of the world has largely moved on from and is facing new ones arising from the Russian invasion of Ukraine. At the same time, the fight against coronavirus has become politicised and has largely become stripped of its health dimension. China is sinking deeper and deeper into self-isolation, which is beginning to have a negative impact on its international environment, and the continuation of its ‘zero COVID’ strategy is destabilising the global economic system by disrupting supply chains.

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Sweden and Finland on the threshold of NATO membership

Author(s): Justyna Gotkowska,Witold Rodkiewicz / Language(s): English

On 17 May, the foreign ministers of Sweden and Finland signed their applications to join the North Atlantic Alliance, and these were officially submitted to NATO in Brussels a day later. This marked the end of a process of revolutionary speed to form internal political consensus, fundamentally changing the security policy of the two hitherto non-aligned states. The brutal Russian invasion of Ukraine caused a sudden change in public opinion in Finland, which influenced the position of the Finnish political parties. The expected turnaround in Helsinki’s security policy in turn influenced the stance of Sweden’s governing Social Democrats. During the accession process Sweden and Finland, with the help of the NATO member states, will have to remove Turkey’s objections to their NATO membership and be prepared for Russian retaliatory actions.

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Zelensky vs. Akhmetov – a test of strength

Author(s): Tadeusz Iwański,Sławomir Matuszak / Language(s): English

In November, an open conflict broke out between President Volodymyr Zelensky and Ukraine’s richest businessman, Rinat Akhmetov. The main cause was Zelensky’s signing of the so-called law on oligarchs. In response, Akhmetov’s television channels, including the most popular one in Ukraine, began to ruthlessly attack the president and to promote his political rivals, in particular the former chairman of the Verkhovna Rada, Dmytro Razumkov, who had been dismissed a few weeks earlier and who until recently had been one of the key representatives of the ruling camp, a person with high public support. In response, Zelensky publicly suggested that Akhmetov was involved in an allegedly prepared state coup and that his entourage was dragging him into a war against Ukraine. Meanwhile, the President’s Office stepped up actions against his business.

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Pressure being stepped up cautiously: the EU’s and US’s sanctions against Belarus

Author(s): Kamil Kłysiński / Language(s): English

The rigged presidential election held in Belarus on 9 August 2020 and the brutal crackdown on the participants of post-election demonstrations triggered immediate criticism from the leaders of EU member states. These developments, combined with Alyaksandr Lukashenka’s unwillingness to engage in a dialogue with the opposition, resulted on 19 August 2020 in the EU deciding to prepare a set of sanctions involving a ban on more than 30 representatives of the regime entering the EU and freezing their assets. Due to the absence of unanimity among the EU member states, the sanctions were only imposed on 2 October 2020, when the US introduced its belated and mild visa restrictions. In Belarus, the crackdown continued, which prompted the EU to adopt, in November and December 2020, another two packages of sanctions (the latter targeting seven Belarusian businesses and other entities). The restrictions imposed by the EU and the US, albeit belated and cautiously approached, should be viewed as a symbolic gesture of disapproval which poses no direct threat to the regime, but which serves as a semblance of moral support for the rebellious majority of Belarusian society. In addition, in August 2020 the EU announced its assistance programme for the empowerment of civil society in Belarus.

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Zelensky’s Ukraine: the mechanisms of power are failing

Author(s): Sławomir Matuszak / Language(s): English

President Volodymyr Zelensky gained full power under a year and a half ago, but it is already becoming increasingly difficult for him to implement his declared political goals. This is due to the increasingly weak control he wields over his own Servant of the People party, his incompetent choice of collaborators and, more broadly, his lack of a comprehensive vision of reforms. Since the government reshuffle in March 2020, Zelensky has abandoned his plan to carry out a comprehensive reconstruction of Ukraine’s political elite by replacing its main figures with untainted ‘new faces’. This is what he had promised to his voters. However, he has failed to find an effective mechanism for selecting suitable candidates for key positions, which negatively affects the process of reforms being implemented. Servant of the People de facto losing its parliamentary majority, which had previously enabled it to independently enact laws, forces this party’s representatives to constantly strive to reach agreements with other parliamentary groups and groups of influence. This is yet another factor undermining the effectiveness of actions carried out by the Ukrainian leadership. Moreover, there are constantly more indications that corruption is being tolerated and there has been a return to the direct control of law enforcement bodies. This, in turn, reinforces the feeling that in his governance style and practice, ‘anti-system’ Zelensky is increasingly resembling his ‘pro-system’ predecessors.

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Kyrgyzstan in the aftermath of revolution

Author(s): Krzysztof Strachota,Mariusz Marszewski / Language(s): English

On 15 October Kyrgyzstan’s president, Sooronobay Jeenbekov, resigned from his position and his duties were taken over by the opposition leader, Sadyr Japarov. The change in power was brought about by large-scale protests which broke out on 5 October, the day after the election; subsequently the protesters took over the main buildings of the central administration in Bishkek and released opposition leaders who had been imprisoned (among them Japarov). The demonstrations, which were forceful but not long-lasting, resulted in a compromise of sorts which led to changes in the highest state positions, the announcement of an early presidential election and a rerun of the parliamentary election.

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Russia on the US presidential elections. Neutrality, with a slight tilt towards Trump

Author(s): Witold Rodkiewicz / Language(s): English

Russia’s ruling elite believes that the outcome of the US presidential elections will have only a negligible impact on Washington’s policy towards Moscow, because the American establishment is convinced that Russia under Vladimir Putin has consistently pursued an anti-American policy. In Russia’s view, each candidate has both strong and weak points, but in the end the Kremlin would prefer to see Donald Trump remain in the White House. To this end, Moscow has been active – particularly in the sphere of propaganda – with the aim of weakening Joe Biden’s candidacy and stoking domestic tensions in American society. However, the scope of Russia’s activity seems more limited compared to the previous electoral campaign. However, Moscow is likely to step up its activities should a political conflict emerge over the outcome of the election. A victory for the Democratic presidential candidate will result in revisions in US policy towards Russia. The incoming Biden administration can be expected to combine tough rhetoric on its divergences with Russia in the field of values with attempts to find areas where their interests converge and where cooperation can take place (such as arms control, the resolution of regional conflicts and the fight against terrorism), complemented by efforts to coordinate the West’s policy towards Russia.

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Vilnius cancels Lukashenka. Lithuania’s policy on the Belarus crisis

Author(s): Joanna Hyndle-Hussein / Language(s): English

The Lithuanian government has not recognised the legality of the election of Alyaksandr Lukashenka as President of the Republic of Belarus, and it now regards the opposition as their main partner. Lithuania has taken on the role of spokesperson for the opposition’s interests, a move which has put an end to Vilnius’s cooperation with the Belarusian dictator. Lithuania attaches particular importance to maintaining ties with Belarusian citizens, on the one hand by providing support to the victims of repression, and on the other by ensuring that social and economic contacts between the two countries are maintained.

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The grand coalition government in Israel. New faces of the political crisis

Author(s): Karolina Zielińska / Language(s): English

After three rounds of early parliamentary elections in Israel, in May 2020 a grand coalition government was sworn in. The parties that make it up belong to a block of conservative and religious groups centred on the Likud bloc of Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, together with the centre-left bloc associated with the Blue and Whites led by Binyamin Gantz. However, the appointment of a government does not mean the end of the political crisis. Uncertainty about the intentions of the central figure on Israel’s political scene, Prime Minister Netanyahu, continues. It is not clear whether he will hand over office to Gantz in November 2021 in accordance with the coalition agreement, or how he intends to deal with the trial that has just started in which he has been charged with corruption. Moreover, the ruling coalition has already been shaken by conflicts, a situation which has been exacerbated by the presence in the Knesset of an opposition which is strong and has been gaining increasing support in the polls. Matters have also been made more difficult by the challenges connected with the second wave of theCOVID-19 pandemic, as well as the country’s economic problems and the protests they have motivated.

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A friend in need. Russia on the protests in Belarus

Author(s): Katarzyna Chawryło (Jarzyńska),Jadwiga Rogoża,Piotr Żochowski / Language(s): English

Due to the dynamic and surprising development of events in Belarus, Russia’s previous tactic –weakening Alyaksandr Lukashenka’s position in order to force further integration with Russia – has had to change. Moscow’s restrained public reaction to the result of the Belarusian elections and Lukashenka’s appeals for help may suggest that in the face of mass protests, the wave of strikes and the initial signs that the ruling elite in Belarus is starting to break up, the Kremlin is considering the various scenarios in the neighbouring republic, including Lukashenka’s possible resignation. Moscow’s support is of key importance for the Belarusian regime, but Russia’s readiness to grant that support to Lukashenka – a difficult partner who now faces the threat of losing power – although considerable, does not seem unconditional. The scope and form of any such support will be the subject of the Kremlin’s calculations; these will be based both on how events in Belarus develop further, and on assessing the potential gains and losses for Moscow in the context of its relations with Minsk, the internal situation in Russia itself, and the attitude of the West. In the short term, Moscow is likely to try, both overtly and covertly, to prevent the uncontrolled collapse of the Belarusian regime, while sounding out possible replacements for Lukashenka and the political consequences thereof. Russia’s priority remains obtaining guarantees that the integration of both countries will be further deepened and Russia’s long-term interests respected.

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DRUGA MEĐUNARODNA NAUČNA KONFERENCIJA - “POSLJEDICE GENOCIDA NAD BOŠNJACIMA U SREBRENICI”: SOCIJALNI, EKONOMSKI, POLITIČKI, DEMOGRAFSKI I KULTURNI RAZVOJ SREBRENICE (1995‒2022) - POTOČARI, 12. OKTOBAR 2023. GODINE

Author(s): / Language(s): Bosnian

Dvadeset i osam godina nakon počinjenog genocida nad Bošnjacima u Republici Bosni i Hercegovini, koji je kulminaciju imao u Srebrenici i oko nje, na prostoru tzv. sigurne zone Ujedinjenih nacija, u julu 1995. godine, i danas su evidentne posljedice u socijalnom, ekonomskom, demografskom, kulturnom i svakom drugom razvoju Srebrenice i okoline. Agresija na Republiku Bosnu i Hercegovinu od 1992. do 1995. godine i počinjeni genocid nad Bošnjacima ostavili su nesagledive posljedice gotovo u svim aspektima rada i življenja. Te posljedice posebno su indikativne na prostoru Srebrenice, koja se i nakon dvadeset i osam godina od agresije i genocida suočava s problemom razvoja i opstanka povratničkog bošnjačkog stanovništva. Počinjeni zločin genocida nad Bošnjacima u Srebrenici doveo je do dugoročnih socijalnih, ekonomskih, demografskih i kulturnih posljedica za život ljudi nakon agresije. Prva posljedica je radikalno smanjenje stanovništva, koje je s 37.382 u predratnom vremenu spalo na 13.409 osoba u cijeloj općini Srebrenica. U gradu Srebrenica i u mjesnim područjima općine Srebrenica tokom rata je uništena privreda i komunalna infrastruktura. Uništeni su gotovo svi kulturni i prateći objekti. Proces obnove u navedenim aspektima, iako se odvija uz pomoć međunarodnih organizacija, nije uspješno završen.

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Can the Possible Non-extension of the New START Treaty Influence the Strategic Stability in the Use of the Outer Space Domain?

Author(s): Miroslav Tůma / Language(s): English

If Trump’s administration refuses the Russian President Vladimir Putin’s offer to extend the validity of the last US-Russian arms-control treaty – the New START Treaty – it could have many negative consequences. A lot of arms-control experts, including the former US and Russian Ministers of Foreign Affairs Madeleine Albright and Igor Ivanov, as mentioned in their February declaration, stressed their support of the Treaty’s extension. The New START Treaty, which restricts the number of deployed strategic nuclear weapons, will expire in February 2021 but its wording enables its extension for five years more. Concerns related to the negative consequences of non-extension of the Treaty include, among others, that there could be a suppression of the strategic stability in the use of the space domain as a result of the end of the Treaty’s complex and intrusive verification system. The potential demise of the Treaty would have various negative impacts; besides the end of notifications, the exchange of telemetric and information data, on-site inspections etc., in connection with this the Treaty’s non-extension would especially have an effect on the binding principle of mutual non-interference with the national technical means (NTMs) of verification of the other party.

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Democratic Participation, Integration, and Trust within the Visegrád Group: Twenty years since European Union Integration

Author(s): Henry Barrett / Language(s): English

The development of the European Union (EU) in the 21st century has been marked by notably transformative events, increasing at a seemingly exponential rate; the Great Recession of 2008, the Eurozone debt crisis of 2010, the migrant crisis of 2015, Brexit in 2016, rule of law backsliding escalating in 2018, the Covid-19 Pandemic of 2020, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Despite the punditry’s1 cyclically2 mimetic3 declarations that the European project faces its decisive breaking point and imminent collapse, the political union has consistently endured. Certain pockets of EU Member States have responded to these various crises by operating within distinct social, economic, and historic cohorts. One key manifestation of this “minilateralism”4 among EU Member States is the Visegrád Group (V4)—composed of Czechia, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia. There exist other alliances within the EU Member States—Benelux, the EU Three, or the Weimar Triangle. However, the V4 stands out in 2024 as a particularly notable grouping of EU Member States for a host of reasons. Considering this year is the 20th anniversary of EU enlargement to these countries, it is a particularly auspicious time to assess their current state of integration into the EU project.

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