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Novi i stari ratovi – organizovano nasilje u globalizovanoj eri
15.00 €

Novi i stari ratovi – organizovano nasilje u globalizovanoj eri

Author(s): Mary Kaldor / Language(s): Serbian

In the context of globalization, this book has shown that what we think of as war - that is to say, war between states in which the aim is to inflict maximum violence - is becoming an anachronism. In its place is a new type of organized violence or 'new wars', which could be described as a mixture of war, organized crime and massive violations of human rights. The actors are both global and local, public and private. The wars are fought for particularistic political goals using tactics of terror and destabilization that are theoretically outlawed by the rules of modern warfare. An informal criminalized economy is built into the functioning of the new wars.Kaldor's analysis offers a basis for a cosmopolitan political response to these wars, in which the monopoly of legitimate organized violence is reconstructed on a transnational basis and international peacekeeping is reconceptualized as cosmopolitan law enforcement. This approach also has implications for the reconstruction of civil society, political institutions, and economic and social relations.

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Keystone of the system. Old and new oligarchs in Ukraine
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Keystone of the system. Old and new oligarchs in Ukraine

Author(s): Wojciech Konończuk / Language(s): English

More than two years after the Maidan revolution, it is fully justified to say that the oligarchic system remains a key mechanism in Ukraine’s political and economic life. While it is true that the influence of the formerly most powerful oligarchic groups has eroded during this period, no such group except for the Family, i.e. the oligarchic circle centred around former President Yanukovych, has been eliminated. The oligarchs have been able to hold on to their influence thanks to the weakness of the government in Kyiv and the fact that they still possess powerful instruments to defend their positions, including dominance of the media and some strategic sectors of the economy. The main cause behind the persistence of the oligarchic system has been the decision taken by sections of the post-Maidan elite to enter into informal alliances with the oligarchs. At the same time, new political-business groups have started to emerge around the Ukrainian leadership, which can also be termed ‘oligarchic’. The oligarchs remains one of the crucial obstacles impeding the modernisation of Ukraine. Undermining their influence will depend on whether the present-day façade institutions can be replaced with institutions that are robust and independent, which is the most important objective of the reforms.

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Unity stronger than divisions. Ukraine’s internal diversity
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Unity stronger than divisions. Ukraine’s internal diversity

Author(s): Tadeusz A. Olszański / Language(s): English

Ukraine is deeply divided internally, although as a result of the changes that have taken place since its independence, the country’s internal divisions now have less and less to do with territorial divides, and the split into historical ‘sub-Ukraines’ has become less pronounced, especially for the younger generation. Ukraine is not a country of two competing regional identities, one in the west, the other in the east. The western identity, in which the unity of Ukraine is a key value, coexists with the multiple and diverse local patriotisms of the different regions in the east and the south of the country. The present protest movement has consolidated the country’s sense of unity. Its opponents have also been championing the indivisibility of Ukraine, even while they demanded a thorough decentralisation of the country, which was often mistaken for separatism. Russia has been stirring up separatist tendencies in Ukraine, but with little success. Crimea is an exception here, because in most respects it has remained unaffected by the dynamics of the social processes transforming mainland Ukraine – separatist tendencies are indeed deeply rooted in the peninsula.

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Turkey and the Kurdish problem
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Turkey and the Kurdish problem

Author(s): Krzysztof Strachota / Language(s): English

The Kurdish issue remains a serious challenge to the stability and security of both Turkey and much of the Middle East. Over the last ten years, however, the region has witnessed substantial major changes (including, Turkey’s socio-political transformation, and the wars in Iraq and Syria), which have altered the conditions under which the so-called ‘Kurdish problem’ has been approached.The new context has fuelled the ambitions, the potential, and the capacity to act not only within Turkey but also among the Kurdish people. Alongside the historically-motivated mutual distrust, hostility and repeated tensions, new opportunities for dialogue and effective cooperation have emerged between the Turkish state and the Kurdish people (particularly the Iraqi Kurds). // The situation in the region is dynamic and the geopolitical limitations faced by Turkey and the Kurds remain significant. It is therefore impossible to prejudge the future shape of the relationship between the two sides. Nonetheless, a notable breakthrough in Ankara’s approach to both the Turkish Kurds and the Middle East, coupled with the consolidation of the Kurds and a deep crisis in the region, indicate that the relations between Turkey, the Kurds and the Middle East will not return to the geopolitical paradigm which dominated much of the twentieth century.

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Turcja i węzeł kurdyjski
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Turcja i węzeł kurdyjski

Author(s): Krzysztof Strachota / Language(s): Polish

Kwestia kurdyjska stanowi wciąż wyzwanie dla stabilności i bezpieczeństwa zarówno Turcji, jak i znacznej części Bliskiego Wschodu. Jednocześnie jednak trwające od dekady zasadnicze przewartościowania w regionie (m.in. transformacja Turcji, wojny w Iraku i Syrii) zmieniły uwarunkowania, w jakich tzw. problem kurdyjski dotychczas funkcjonował.Na fali przemian m.in. znacząco wzrosły ambicje, potencjał i możliwości działania nie tylko Turcji, ale też Kurdów. Obok ugruntowanej historycznie wzajemnej nieufności i wrogości oraz kolejnych napięć wyraźnie zarysowały się – co stanowi istotne novum – pola i gotowość do dialogu oraz efektywnej współpracy Turcji i Kurdów (przede wszystkim irackich). // Sytuacja w regionie jest dynamiczna, a ujawnione w ostatnim czasie ograniczenia Turcji i Kurdów znaczne, nie można więc przesądzać przyszłego kształtu relacji. Jednak swoisty przełom w myśleniu tureckim o Kurdach i Bliskim Wschodzie, konsolidacja Kurdów i głęboki kryzys w całym regionie wskazują, że relacje w trójkącie Turcja–Kurdowie–Bliski Wschód nie powrócą do schematów funkcjonujących w XX wieku.

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Sułtani swingu. Turcja wobec integracji z Unią Europejską
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Sułtani swingu. Turcja wobec integracji z Unią Europejską

Author(s): Szymon Ananicz / Language(s): Polish

Turcja, mimo coraz częstszego stosowania nieprzyjaznej wobec Unii Europejskiej retoryki i coraz wyraźniejszej asertywności w relacjach z Brukselą, w perspektywie najbliższych lat będzie się opowiadała za kontynuacją procesu integracji z UE. Impas w procesie akcesyjnym jest dla rządu Recepa Tayyipa Erdoğana powodem głębokiej irytacji. Niemniej dla rządzącej partii AKP znacznie mniej korzystnym scenariuszem byłoby ewentualne zerwanie rozmów akcesyjnych. Władze liczą przede wszystkim na podtrzymanie procesu negocjacyjnego, a nie na pełne członkostwo. // Za działaniami rządu Erdoğana na rzecz utrzymania procesu akcesyjnego przemawiać będzie świadomość, że ma on dla AKP ważne znaczenie w polityce wewnętrznej i gospodarczej, a także – choć w znacznie mniejszym stopniu – w polityce zagranicznej. Przydatność procesu integracji do celów polityki wewnętrznej będzie skłaniała władze Turcji, by unikać kryzysów w relacjach z UE, a jeśli się pojawią, łagodzić je.

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On the periphery of global jihad. The North Caucasus: the illusion of stabilisation
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On the periphery of global jihad. The North Caucasus: the illusion of stabilisation

Author(s): Maciej Falkowski / Language(s): English

The situation in the North Caucasus has stabilised, in comparison with previous years, mainly as regards the activity of the Islamic military underground. This is an effect of ideological changes among the militants which have led to a dilution of the Caucasian armed struggle and its marginalisation in global jihad, since top priority has been granted to the Middle Eastern front. The factors which have contributed to this stabilisation are the organisational crisis in the Caucasus Emirate and the outflux of militants to the Middle East, as well the successful ‘carrot and stick’ policy adopted by Moscow. However, the partial stabilisation in the Caucasus is inherently precarious, being a contingent outcome of the situation rather than the result of systemic change. The region’s pressing problems remain unresolved; and these problems are generating chronic instability and cauing the Caucasus to drift away from Russia in civilisational terms. An economic or political crisis in the Russian Federation may result in the conflicts in the Caucasus unfreezing, including a reactivation of the idea of Chechen independence as well as the idea of the Caucasus Emirate, which is a part of global jihad.

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The Middle East in the shadow of the Islamic State
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The Middle East in the shadow of the Islamic State

Author(s): Krzysztof Strachota / Language(s): English

One year on from the victorious offensive and announcement of the caliphate, Islamic State is gaining strength as a terrorist organisation which has an army and a para-state of its own. This is breaking apart the fragile order in the Middle East. The world is fascinated with the phenomenon of Islamic State, failing to notice that the Middle East is going through a crisis – and this is the main challenge. IS is an embodiment of the region’s problems and one of its symptoms but it is not the cause of them. The Middle East as we know it is ceasing to exist; borders and countries are vanishing (Iraq and Syria), new para-state entities are coming into existence, new players are entering the stage (from IS to Kurds), and a generation who do not know the old order and are searching for new radical ideas and recipes are growing up. The melting of the Western/US security umbrella stimulates the regional proxy war and regional powers’ (Iran and Turkey) attempts to fundamentally change the post-colonial order. For the West, the concerns about Islamic State are a shadow of the concerns about the future of the Middle East as a whole and the awareness that neither the hard methods (interventions in Iraq) nor the soft methods (promotion of Western values and development model) used in this region over the past few decades are currently working.

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Bliski Wschód w cieniu Państwa Islamskiego
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Bliski Wschód w cieniu Państwa Islamskiego

Author(s): Krzysztof Strachota / Language(s): Polish

Po roku od zwycięskiej ofensywy i ogłoszeniu kalifatu Państwo Islamskie krzepnie jako organizacja terrorystyczna mająca armię i parapaństwo, a tym samym kruszy się wątły porządek na Bliskim Wschodzie. Świat fascynuje się fenomenem Państwa Islamskiego, nie zauważając, że Bliski Wschód przeżywa kryzys i właśnie to jest zasadniczym wyzwaniem. PI jest uosobieniem i jednym z przejawów, a nie przyczyną problemów regionu. Bliski Wschód, jaki znamy, przestaje istnieć; zanikają granice i państwa (Irak i Syria), powstają nowe twory parapaństwowe, pojawiają się nowi gracze (od PI po Kurdów), rośnie pokolenie nieznające starego porządku i poszukujące nowych, radykalnych idei i recept. Zanikanie zachodniego/amerykańskiego parasola bezpieczeństwa stymuluje regionalną proxy war i próby gruntowej zmiany postkolonialnego porządku przez regionalne mocarstwa (Iran, Turcję). // Dla Zachodu obawy o Państwo Islamskie, to cień obaw o przyszłość całego Bliskiego Wschodu oraz świadomość, że używane w ostatnich dekadach wobec regionu zarówno twarde (interwencje w Iraku), jak i miękkie (promocja zachodnich wartości i modelu rozwoju) metody nie działają.

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INTERNATIONAL SCIENTIFIC CONFERENCE STRATEGIES XXI 

“ROMANIA CENTENARY”
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INTERNATIONAL SCIENTIFIC CONFERENCE STRATEGIES XXI “ROMANIA CENTENARY”

Author(s): Doina Muresan,Ioan Crăciun,Ion Roceanu / Language(s): English

The National Defence College is a unique discussion environment that is widely appreciated at the national and international level. Therefore, we have invited to these debates some notorious academic personalities who – we believe – have managed to transform the scientific communication session Romania Centenary into a milestone of the year 2018.This volume is structured into three chapters that reflect the objectives that had been established by the time we initiated this endeavour. The volume is opened by the chapter 1st of December 1918 – 100 Years Since Building the National State. The section has the ambition to revive the spirit of 1918 and to invigorate the speech related to the role that the civil society and the military had in forging the national unitarian state

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Zov rata u Siriji i bosanskohercegovački kontingent stranih boraca : istraživački projekt
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Zov rata u Siriji i bosanskohercegovački kontingent stranih boraca : istraživački projekt

Author(s): Vlado Azinović,Muhamed Jusić / Language(s): Bosnian

Povratnici s ratišta u Siriji i Iraku – iskušani u borbama, vješti u rukovanju oružjem i eksplozivom, i ideološki motivirani – općenito se smatraju izravnom prijetnjom ne samo po sigurnost Bosne i Hercegovine nego i po regionalnu i međunarodnu sigurnost jer se vjeruje da bi se nakon povratka u matičnu zemlju mogli priključiti već postojećim mrežama ideološki radikaliziranih osoba i zajednica ili uspostaviti nove. Smatra se također da bi se takve osobe mogle angažirati u procesu radikalizacije i vrbovanja novih boraca za sukobe u Siriji i Iraku ili da bi njihova znanja i iskustvo mogli biti privlačni nekoj od organiziranih kriminalnih skupina.

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Russia’s Middle Eastern policy. Regional ambitions, global objectives
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Russia’s Middle Eastern policy. Regional ambitions, global objectives

Author(s): Witold Rodkiewicz / Language(s): English

The Russian military intervention in Syria began in autumn 2015 and was met with a wave of comments claiming that Russia had regained its global power position in the Middle East. The purpose of the present paper is to identify the nature of Russia’s position as a power in the Middle East and to trace the motives guiding the Kremlin’s Middle Eastern policy. The first part attempts to identify the place Middle Eastern policy occupies in the Kremlin’s overall foreign policy and Moscow’s priorities in the region. The second part describes the evolution of post-Soviet Russia’s Middle Eastern policy, pointing to its growing involvement in the region on the one hand, and the instrumental nature of that involvement on the other. Because the Russian military intervention in Syria has been the central element of Russia’s Middle Eastern policy since the autumn of 2015, the third part is devoted to analysing the reasons for and objectives of that intervention. Parts four and five delve into Russia’s policy towards the countries it considers its most important regional partners, i.e. Turkey and Iran. Part six attempts to analyse the instruments with which Russia has built its position in the region and to assess the outcomes of its Middle Eastern policy and the challenges ahead of that policy.

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Bliskowschodnia polityka Rosji. Regionalne ambicje, globalne cele
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Bliskowschodnia polityka Rosji. Regionalne ambicje, globalne cele

Author(s): Witold Rodkiewicz / Language(s): Polish

Rosyjska interwencja wojskowa w Syrii, rozpoczęta jesienią 2015 roku, wywołała falę komentarzy głoszących, że Rosja odzyskała pozycję wielkiego mocarstwa na Bliskim Wschodzie. Celem niniejszego tekstu jest po pierwsze ustalenie, na czym polega rosyjska mocarstwowość na Bliskim Wschodzie, a po drugie rekonstrukcja motywów, jakimi kieruje się Kreml w swojej polityce bliskowschodniej. Pierwsza część pracy stanowi próbę określenia miejsca polityki bliskowschodniej w globalnej polityce zagranicznej Kremla oraz zidentyfikowania rosyjskich priorytetów w regionie. Część druga pokazuje ewolucję polityki bliskowschodniej postsowieckiej Rosji, zwracając uwagę z jednej strony na jej rosnące zaangażowanie w regionie, a z drugiej na instrumentalny charakter tego zaangażowania. Ze względu na to, że od jesieni 2015 roku interwencja wojskowa w Syrii stała się centralnym elementem rosyjskiej polityki na Bliskim Wschodzie, analizie jej przyczyn i celów jest poświęcona część trzecia tekstu. W części czwartej i piątej analizowana jest polityka Rosji wobec dwóch najważniejszych z jej punktu widzenia regionalnych partnerów – Turcji i Iranu. Część szósta to próba charakterystyki instrumentów, za pomocą których Rosja zbudowała swoją pozycję w regionie, a także dokonania bilansu rosyjskiej polityki bliskowschodniej i identyfikacji wyzwań, które przed nią stoją.

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The best army Ukraine has ever had. Changes in Ukraine’s armed forces since the Russian aggression
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The best army Ukraine has ever had. Changes in Ukraine’s armed forces since the Russian aggression

Author(s): Andrzej Wilk / Language(s): English

In the spring and summer of 2014, for the first time in its history, the Ukrainian army faced the necessity of military involvement to defend its state. After initially failing to engage in action with the enemy – in the form of irregular armed formations, sent from the territory of Russia, which rapidly took over Crimea – and faced with the threat of Ukraine losing the entire eastern and southern part of the country and real, direct aggression from Russia, it launched military action against the so-called separatists. Initially, the Ukrainian armed forces’ actions in the Donbas were carried out on a small scale and were irregular in nature, based on reacting to the enemy’s activity. Along with the systematic increase in the separatists’ potential (thanks to Russia), as well as the direct involvement of the Russian Federation’s armed forces at a critical period in August 2014, the Ukrainian army’s operations took on a regular character, and the entire military potential of Ukraine was involved in defending the territorial integrity of the state. The military activity in the Donbas carried out at that time, and to varying degrees of intensity in the following months, highlighted the Ukrainian army’s weaknesses, as well as its total inability to implement its constitutional duties. This forced the government in Kyiv to take real action to clean up the country’s armed forces.

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Czym jest PESCO? Miraże europejskiej polityki bezpieczeństwa
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Czym jest PESCO? Miraże europejskiej polityki bezpieczeństwa

Author(s): Justyna Gotkowska / Language(s): Polish

Aktywowanie mechanizmu stałej współpracy strukturalnej (tzw. PESCO) w grudniu 2017 roku zwieńczyło debaty i działania z zakresu wzmacniania wspólnej polityki bezpieczeństwa i obrony UE. Wypracowanie kompromisu dotyczącego PESCO pokazało strategiczne rozbieżności pomiędzy Francją, Niemcami a państwami wschodniej flanki UE w zakresie percepcji wyzwań i zagrożeń, wizji rozwoju polityki bezpieczeństwa UE oraz przyszłości relacji transatlantyckich. Zaś zachodnioeuropejskie debaty wokół PESCO unaoczniły stopień oderwania politycznych narracji od wojskowej rzeczywistości.

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Options for Transparency and Confidence-Building Measures Related to Non-Strategic Nuclear Weapons in Europe: Cost-Benefit Matrix
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Options for Transparency and Confidence-Building Measures Related to Non-Strategic Nuclear Weapons in Europe: Cost-Benefit Matrix

Author(s): Jacek Durkalec,Andrei Zagorski / Language(s): English

On 20–21 February 2014 in Warsaw, the Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM) in cooperation with the Institute of World Economy and International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences (IMEMO RAN) organised the workshop: Transparency and Confidence-Building Measures Related to Non-Strategic Nuclear Weapons in Europe: Cost-Benefit Matrix. The workshop sought to advance the informal dialogue on information-sharing and transparency and confidence-building measures (TCBMs) regarding non-strategic nuclear weapons (NSNW) in Europe. The idea behind the workshop was based on the concept of a Joint TCBM Cost-Benefit Matrix, outlined in the final report of the 2013 Warsaw Workshop: Prospects for Information-Sharing and Confidence-Building on Non-Strategic Nuclear Weapons in Europe.

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CAMOUFLAGE FOR THE DIGITAL DOMAIN
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CAMOUFLAGE FOR THE DIGITAL DOMAIN

Author(s): Sebastian Bay,Michael Bátrla,Henrik Twetman / Language(s): English

The digital environment is an increasingly important dimension of the contemporary battle space. While we have been focusing our attention on cyber-threats and systemic resilience, less attention has been paid to challenges arising from the malicious use of openly available digital information regarding military organisations. An adversary does not need significant resources or advanced cyber capabilities to pose a threat in the digital domain, when social media and digital technologies are easily accessible, providing information and infrastructure that can be exploited by anyone with access to a computer and an internet connection. For example, open-source methods can be used to geolocate military units, social media can be used to augment influence activities, and social data can be scraped for valuable intelligence.

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Exercise Kavkaz 2020 – A Final Test of Russian Military Reform?
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Exercise Kavkaz 2020 – A Final Test of Russian Military Reform?

Author(s): Daivis Petraitis,Vira Ratsiborynska,Baris Kirdemir,Valeriy Akimenko / Language(s): English

The year 2020 was one of tectonic geopolitical shifts. Strategic competition between Russia and the West intensified, while the COVID-19 pandemic had major strategic implications globally and affected the state of international affairs. In 2020 Russia conducted Kavkaz 2020, a major exercise from its annual cycle, which aimed to convey the Kremlin’s ability to adapt to changing conditions of warfare and to project and integrate military power. In a period of international turmoil and economic recession linked to the effects of the pandemic, Kavkaz 2020 was a cornerstone of Russia’s campaign to leverage its annual training programme, display military power and upgraded military capabilities to its allies, partners and neighbours, as well as to demonstrate operational readiness to its potential adversaries. Messages communicated before and during Kavkaz 2020 demonstrated how Russia could use its military element of state power to achieve the geopolitical or political objectives Kremlin desires in the European information space.

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The Commentaries – Volume 1, 2021
4.50 €

The Commentaries – Volume 1, 2021

Author(s): / Language(s): English

The Commentaries is a journal that publishes analysis, evaluations and assessments of contemporary developments in Turkey, Turkey’s role in the MENA region, and Turkey-EU relations. It does so for a broad audience of scholars, policy-makers, professionals and students. The aim of the commentaries is to draw attention to current advances, discuss policies and practices, and to stimulate critical discussion and theoretical reflection. The Commentaries is an initiative of the European Union Turkey Civic Commission (EUTCC). However, views expressed in The Commentaries do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the EUTCC (EU-Turkey Civic Commission) nor its members. Submissions to The Commentaries are reviewed by the editorial board. Commentaries are published online. Print copies of The Commentaries are published on a yearly basis.

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Global Maritime Geopolitics
12.00 €

Global Maritime Geopolitics

Author(s): / Language(s): English

States must develop new approaches, maritime policies, strategies and tactics to cruise through contemporary maritime politics. Soft power, as well as economic, commercial, and logistics factors are of critical importance in establishing marine power. It is critical to promote maritime-related products such as films, serials, literature and art, maritime journalism, and maritime photography as part of governmental policies. Marine and maritime security challenges are becoming more important in today’s world. As a result of all these developments, the preparation of a multidimensional and comprehensive work on the oceans and seas at the global level has been brought to the agenda. Our book has been written to elucidate these concerns and contribute to this important scholarly and policy field. This book can also be useful for wider audiences as a comprehensive volume on maritime geopolitics covering many cases from around the world and discussions from Turkish perspectives.

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