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Albania and NATO. Why we do need NATO?

Author(s): Maklen Misha / Language(s): English

Few issues interest the Albanians more than their country’s Euro-Atlantic integration. However, while accession to the EU must for the moment, remains a distant dream, in recent months expectations have been raised that Albania might receive an invitation to join NATO in the Summit of Bucharest due in April 2008. Several ministers have made declarations to that effect and the media has been quite active in discussing the possibility, too. If this indeed proves to be the case, it would be hard to explain the sense of accomplishment Albanians would feel at the realization of their dream. // Because of the proximity of the Summit of Bucharest and the expectations that prevail in Albania concerning its possible invitation to join NATO in July 2007, AIIS decided to conduct a survey with four elite groups of the Albanian society. These groups are involved in the integration process more actively and directly than the ordinary Albanians are. The rationale behind the choice of target groups was based on the belief that these groups because of their position in society and their ability to influence decision-making. Therefore, it is interesting to ascertain the level of expertise that they possess on the NATO integration process. Because these groups, by their very nature, play a primary role in shaping the attitudes and beliefs of the public as a whole, by shaping attitudes one can also expect to gain a sense of what the public as a whole thinks of these issues.

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The Regimental System and the Armed Forces of Bosnia and Herzegovina

Author(s): Elliot Short / Language(s): English

The regimental system is a method of military organisation developed by the British Army over the last 300 years, variations of which can be identified in the present-day armed forces of numerous Commonwealth states including Australia, Canada, India, Pakistan, and the United Kingdom (UK). Despite its widespread application and well documented history, however, any definition of the Regimental System must remain fluid. Socio-economic developments, coupled with advances in technology and military organisation, means that the parameters of what a regiment is – in terms of structure, composition, identity, and purpose – are constantly changing. David French, in his detailed study of military identities in the British Army, postulates that ‘the language of the “regiment” is so shot through with anomalies that to talk of a “regimental system” is itself almost a misnomer, for there was much about it that was anything but systematic.’1Perhaps the only consistent observation of the Regimental System focuses on its abstract, emotional appeal. When joining a regiment, a soldier enters a community which offers them an inspirational heritage, a legacy to defend, and the support of a “family” in a manner considerably more personal than the faceless bureaucracy of an army organised along the lines of the continental system. Such a dynamic, it is argued, fosters esprit de corps and boosts the morale of troops, ultimately leading to increased combat effectiveness and cohesion. Over 130 years after Edward Cardwell reformed the British Army and established the Regimental System, the model was applied to the newly integrated Armed Forces of Bosnia and Herzegovina (Bosna i Herzegovina, BiH; AFBIH), a military with no significant historical links to the British Army or the wider Anglosphere. This paper will offer an overview of the origins and development of the regimental system in a number of countries, explain how such a system came to be applied in BiH, and compare the application of the system in the AFBiH with other militaries which utilise it. The strengths and weaknesses of the regimental system in the AFBiH will then be considered, and the report will conclude with an analysis of how the regimental system could be reformed in order to strengthen the AFBiH.

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SO FAR FROM GOD, SO CLOSE TO RUSSIA: Belarus and the Zapad military Exercises

Author(s): Fredrik Wesslau,Andrew Wilson / Language(s): English

Fears that Russia may use Zapad 2017 as cover to carry out a hybrid operation in Belarus are overblown. Moscow has other levers with which it can coerce Minsk, and it neither needs nor is interested in another military adventure at the moment. // President Lukashenka realises that relying solely on Moscow is dangerous and wants instead to diversify his strategic options by inching closer to Europe. But there are limits to how much Lukashenka can, or even wants to, approach the West. His survival depends fundamentally on maintaining an economic lifeline to Moscow. He knows that taking significant amounts of Western money comes with requirements of structural reforms that would undermine the basis for his rule. // The European Union should support the gradual strengthening of Belarusian sovereignty, build further links, and step up engagement. This will bring Belarus closer to the West, as well as create more opportunities to influence Minsk on human rights and democracy. A policy of isolation would only push Belarus further into Russia’s tight embrace.

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Universal, selective, and lottery-based: conscription in the Nordic and Baltic states

Author(s): Piotr Szymański / Language(s): English

The Nordic and Baltic region is currently experiencing a significant expansion of conscription and reserve forces. In addition to accelerated military modernisation and the reinforcement of NATO’s north-eastern flank, enhancing mobilisation capacity has emerged as a key element in bolstering the defence capabilities of Nordic and Baltic states in response to an aggressive Russia.

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Washington Summit – NATO's anniversary in the shadow of the war

Author(s): Robert Pszczel,Piotr Szymański / Language(s): English

Three themes were dominant at the NATO Summit in Washington (9–11 July): the reinforcement of allied deterrence and defence, support for Ukraine, and cooperation with the partners in the Indo-Pacific. NATO continues to adapt its command structure and the process of force generation for new regional defence plans. The most significant decisions concerned aid for Ukraine. Although Kyiv is yet to receive an invitation to join NATO, its integration path was described as "irreversible".The decisions made at the summit regarding NATO's new role in supporting Ukraine are to serve as a "bridge" to eventual membership. These include NATO taking on tasks of coordinating military aid and the training of Ukrainian forces, along with a financial commitment of at least €40 billion annually for long-term support. Compared to previous documents, the allies have toughened their language on China in the Summit Declaration, identifying it as a decisive enabler of Russia’s war against Ukraine.

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How to win the war and join NATO? The key role of Ukraine’s partnership with the Alliance

Author(s): Robert Pszczel / Language(s): English

Ukraine’s defensive war is a struggle for high stakes: the existence of the Ukrainian state and the security of the entire Western world. The upcoming NATO summit in Washington, like the previous one in Vilnius, will not bring any breakthroughs regarding how quickly Ukraine joins the Alliance, or whether Kyiv receives a formal invitation. However, NATO is ready to increase its support for Ukraine significantly. The assistance package which has been prepared may prove to be an added value binding Ukraine more closely with the Alliance. This will create an opportunity for two goals to be achieved simultaneously: strategically strengthening Ukraine's military potential in its war against Russia, and preparing it for the requirements of future membership.

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NATO’s nuclear deterrence: is it time for change?

Author(s): Jakub Graca,Justyna Gotkowska / Language(s): English

NATO is in the process of adjusting its nuclear deterrence in response to the modernisation of Russia’s nuclear capabilities, the deployment of Russian tactical nuclear weapons near NATO’s borders, and the Kremlin’s increasingly aggressive rhetoric. However, the changes to NATO’s nuclear strategy, capabilities (aside from the ongoing modernisation of the US, UK, and French strategic forces), and strategic communication have so far been limited.Currently, there is no agreement on whether to further strengthen NATO’s tactical nuclear potential in Europe by expanding the nuclear sharing programme to include additional allies or by deploying nuclear-capable land-based missile systems in Europe. Nevertheless, it will be necessary to adapt NATO’s tactical nuclear potential further in the future as the US’s nuclear capabilities will be most likely adjusted to the growing challenges posed not only by Russia but also China. This may spur a discussion on the European allies increasing their participation in nuclear sharing program and on strengthening the roles of France and the UK in nuclear deterrence in Europe.

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Pax Ukrainica. Ukraine’s hopes and expectations ahead of the summit in Switzerland

Author(s): Krzysztof Nieczypor / Language(s): English

Much of Ukrainian diplomacy’s activity has been focused on efforts to persuade the world that it should support an end to the war with Russia on Ukraine’s terms. Since November 2022, Ukraine has primarily pursued this goal by promoting Volodymyr Zelensky’s Peace Formula, which consists of 10 points representing Ukrainian demands directly related to the ongoing conflict: the complete withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukrainian territory, Russia’s recognition of the inviolability of Ukraine’s borders, punishing those guilty of war crimes, and launching international action in the face of the threats with possible global consequences that exist in Ukraine. These include ensuring the safety of nuclear energy in the light of Russia’s occupation of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, and guaranteeing Ukrainian food exports via the Black Sea.

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The Israeli offensive in Rafah against the backdrop of a humanitarian disaster

Author(s): Marek Matusiak / Language(s): English

In the second week of May, Israel launched an invasion of the southern part of the Gaza Strip (the Rafah region) and resumed massive ground & air attacks in the north (including on the city of Jabalia). Since then, its army (the Israeli Defence Forces, IDF) has taken control of the border crossing with Egypt (which had hitherto been used as the main point for importing humanitarian aid) and began entering the city of Rafah itself. As a result, Israel now fully controls land access to Gaza, which it has consistently blocked since the start of the offensive.[1]

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On the warpath: the development and modernisation of the Baltic states’ armed forces

Author(s): Bartosz Chmielewski,Jacek Tarociński / Language(s): English

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 reinforced the sense of threat from Russia in the Baltic states, and spurred them to speed up the implementation of their national defence policies. Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia decided to boost their military spending and adapt their security objectives to the changing situation. The experience of the war in Ukraine and Russia’s crimes against the Ukrainian civilian population prompted the three countries to take steps aimed at ensuring that they could defend their entire national territories from day one of a possible attack. The new objectives of their security and defence policies are based on three pillars: achieving defence spending of at least 3% of GDP, securing the greater presence of allied forces, and fast-tracking technical modernisation combined with the development of their own armed forces and the expansion of their military infrastructure.

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Facing another Zeitenwende. How Germany could react to a possible victory for Trump

Author(s): Lidia Gibadło / Language(s): English

The news that Donald Trump is almost certain to be the Republican Party’s presumptive presidential nominee has sparked a debate in Germany about the country’s future cooperation with the US. At present, concern about sustaining American military engagement in Europe, including the continuation of aid to Ukraine, is the predominant topic in this debate. However, there are more challenges to come: Germany is also worried that the US will start criticising it again for its trade surpluses and underinvestment in the Bundeswehr.

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On the threshold of a third year of war. Ukraine’s mobilisation crisis

Author(s): Jakub Ber / Language(s): English

At the end of 2023 the Ukrainian army was facing a serious crisis involving manpower shortage, aside from the even more serious problem posed by the shortfall of weapons and ammunition. This is particularly evident as regards the infantry, which has formed the backbone of the forces fighting against Russia and has suffered the most severe losses. The majority of volunteers enlisted in the first months of the war, while opportunities to recruit thousands of new ones have now been exhausted. Although a mobilisation process has been underway since spring 2022, due to the present legal and organisational constraints it is selective in nature, and has proved unable to meet the needs of the armed forces in terms of unit replenishment and rotation. These problems are further aggravated by the soldiers’ high average age (around 40); this translates into poor physical condition & health, and they lack the stamina to withstand the hardships of gruelling trench warfare. In some aspects, the causes of the crisis involve the army itself, and result from many years of neglect and irregularities affecting the military draft centres. However, the main factor hindering the improvement of the situation has been political.

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UK Signs Security Agreement with Ukraine

Author(s): Daniel Szeligowski / Language(s): English

During his visit to Kyiv on 12 January, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak signed a bilateral agreement on security cooperation between the United Kingdom and Ukraine with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. The UK is the first of the G7 countries to enter into such an agreement with Ukraine, pledging long-term support in the fight against Russia. While accession to NATO is what Ukraine is aiming for, agreements with G7 countries may in future become a necessary alternative for Ukraine to ensure its security versus membership of the Alliance.

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NATO Countries Respond to Russia's Instrumentalisation of Migration

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English

The use of migration as an instrument of influence will continue to be one of the most important types of hybrid action used by Russia against the countries on NATO’s Eastern Flank in upcoming years. It is therefore in their interest to develop a common approach to such threats. Enhanced cooperation, including counter-intelligence, speed of action, and demonstration of determination to defend their borders, including the threat of complete closure, will be important elements of it.

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Gaza War Burdens Vulnerable Situation in Lebanon

Author(s): Sara Nowacka / Language(s): English

Hezbollah is using the Gaza war to step up pressure on Israel in existing territorial disputes. At the same time, Lebanese opposition to their country’s inclusion in the war with Israel is prompting Hezbollah to become less involved. However, this may change if there are additional Israeli attacks beyond the border territories.

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Canada Seeking New Forms of Assistance to Ukraine

Author(s): Paweł Markiewicz / Language(s): English

Challenges related to weapons types and arms production for Canada’s Armed Forces, as well as a growing internal political debate, means that further aid to Ukraine will likely decrease over the next several years. Canada will likely compensate for this by modifying its strategy towards Ukraine to long-term engagement while increasing its involvement in NATO.

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Türkiye Approves Sweden's Accession to NATO

Author(s): Aleksandra Maria Spancerska / Language(s): English

On 23 January, after a bilateral crisis that lasted from May 2022 to the new year, the Turkish parliament finally approved Sweden’s membership of NATO. In unlocking the enlargement, Türkiye expects more political and security support from the other NATO members, primarily the U.S.

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EUROPEAN DEFENCE: WHY NOT THE TWELVE ?

Author(s): Nicole Gnesotto / Language(s): English

When the Institute for Security Studies was established in July 1990, it took as one of its primary tasks work on the definition of a European security identity. The present paper by Nicole Gnesotto was first discussed in an early form at a seminar held here on 13 November 1990. Since then there has been considerable debate, both at the Rome summit, the opening meetings of the Intergovernmental Conference and the WEU Ministerial Council. I believe that publication of Nicole Gnesotto's paper in its revised form will make a valuable contribution to this continuing debate. The Institute hopes to continue to play an active part in the debate on this subject, and we believe that this analysis of the problems involved and the positions adopted deserves a wider circulation than it has had so far.

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POLITIČKA ANALIZA: Proširenje NATO-a na Bosnu i Hercegovinu (Korak ka stabilnosti ili Ne računaj NATO)

Author(s): Z. Kulundžić,A. Kapetanović,Davor Vuletić,Mirza Kušljugić,Dževad F. Sarajlić,Zlatko Dizdarević / Language(s): Bosnian

The purpose of this analysis is not to theoretically elaborate the concept of the NATO alliance and all its military and civilian aspects, but to determine the elements of the true political determination of Bosnia and Herzegovina for membership in that alliance, the causes of politicization that led to a halt in the accession process, the hostage situation of the authorities in BiH. institution and geopolitical consequences of non-membership of Bosnia and Herzegovina in NATO for regional stability.

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