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The Impossible Equilibrium: France Manoeuvres between Duelling China Policies

Author(s): Amanda Dziubińska / Language(s): English

France’s policy towards China is based on opposing aspirations. On the one hand, President Emmanuel Macron is trying to maintain the possibility of developing cooperation with China, fearing a bipolar U.S.- Chinese rivalry. On the other, he seeks to protect French and European industries more effectively against unfair competition from China and opposes Chinese ambitions to dominate the Indo-Pacific. According to the French president, reconciling these goals is possible through more effective cooperation within the EU, although France’s aim to reduce the trade deficit puts it in the role of a competitor to other EU Member States. In the context of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Macron wants to use China as a means of pressure on Russia.

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North Korea Continues to Develop Its Nuclear Forces

Author(s): Oskar Pietrewicz / Language(s): English

North Korea is conducting further missile tests to check new types of weapons and increase the credibility of its nuclear deterrence. The adoption of a new nuclear doctrine that allows pre-emptive nuclear strikes also serves this purpose. North Korea is taking advantage of the period of tension between the U.S., Russia, and China, which prevent the UN Security Council from adopting further sanctions. In this situation, the U.S. and its allies should strengthen defence and deterrence capabilities against North Korea and set achievable goals to reduce the risk of escalation of tensions before possible negotiations.

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EU Development Cooperation Policy Faces Challenges Amid the War in Ukraine

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English

Russia’s aggression against Ukraine has caused a serious humanitarian crisis in Europe at a time when global aid needs are growing dramatically and are now at their highest in history. The EU’s strong support for Ukraine poses challenges to the EU development cooperation system and risks reducing the EU’s involvement in other developing countries. There is an urgent need to increase spending on EU development assistance, as well as to create new instruments and mechanisms. In this way, support for Ukraine will not limit the assistance needed for other countries, including strengthening their resistance to Russian influence.

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Germany Works Towards Independence from Russian Raw Materials

Author(s): Łukasz Jasiński,Zuzanna Nowak / Language(s): English

The failure of Germany’s now-discarded Eastern policy has forced it to take steps to increase its resilience to Russian pressure in the area of energy. The biggest and fastest changes are targeting the goal to become independent of Russian raw materials, especially gas. This has required Germany to change its approach to the use of LNG and nuclear power, among other energy sources. The crisis-related rise in energy prices is a major concern for the German public and is affecting the government’s ratings and bolstering the pro-Russian party Alternative for Germany (AfD).

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Sputnik V: research, production, vaccination campaign and export

Author(s): Iwona Wiśniewska,Jadwiga Rogoża / Language(s): English

In December 2020, Russia launched a mass-scale action for vaccinating its citizens with the domestically produced Sputnik V coronavirus vaccine. It was only on 2 February 2021 that the Gamaleya Institute, which developed the vaccine, announced the results of its phase-III clinical trials which showed that the vaccine’s efficacy rate was more than 91%. The way the Russian leadership reports on Sputnik V’s production and rollout is chaotic and the published data is incompatible and non-transparent. Only rough information has been shared regarding the number of vaccinations performed thus far: the Ministry of Health has failed to provide precise figures and, according to estimates by the Gamaleya Institute, the immunisation campaign has so far covered 1.5–2 million citizens. However, these figures are inconsistent with the data reported by the individual regions.

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Russia in the global ‘vaccine race’

Author(s): Iwona Wiśniewska,Jadwiga Rogoża / Language(s): English

During the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, Moscow has stepped up its activities in the global‘ vaccine race’ against SARS-CoV-2. So far Russia has registered two vaccines, which was announced by President Vladimir Putin himself. The presentation of Sputnik V, which the Russian government has branded as the ‘world’s first vaccine’, caused controversy from the very start, for both medical (as the clinical trial procedure was not completed) and ethical reasons (forcing ‘volunteers’ to take part in the tests). Foreign specialists, alongside the Russian medical community and the Russian public, have expressed scepticism about the insufficiently tested preparation. Despite this, the government is planning to carry out a mass campaign of public vaccination using Sputnik V and export this vaccine, mainly to developing countries.

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Coronavirus test for military organisation in Russia

Author(s): Jolanta Darczewska / Language(s): English

The Kremlin defines the role of the Russian Federation as a superpower in the international arena in terms of the strength it can bring to bear due to its resources, and this is the backdrop for the Kremlin’s plans to integrate the capacities of the ‘forces ministries’ into a coherent state military organisation. The system, which was created to mobilise the various resources, and develop a capacity for them to be used flexibly to further Russia’s strategic political goals, has also been put to the test in the current epidemiological crisis. One form in which this has manifested itself is marginalisation of the Ministry of Emergency Situations (EMERCOM), which officially is in charge of coordinating crisis response operations.

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The Kurdish Question Dominates Turkish Policy in the Wake of the Istanbul Bombing

Author(s): Aleksandra Maria Spancerska / Language(s): English

On 13 November, a bomb exploded in Istanbul. In retaliation, Türkiye carried out air strikes against the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and its affiliates in Iraq and Syria. The public’s sense of a renewed internal threat resulted in a drop in support for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. Possible Turkish ground operations in northern Syria may complicate the continuing fight against ISIS.

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U.S. Releases 2022 Nuclear Posture Review

Author(s): Artur Kacprzyk / Language(s): English

Despite Joe Biden’s election promise to reduce the salience of nuclear weapons in U.S. security strategy, his administration is not making fundamental changes to U.S. nuclear policy. It is continuing the modernisation of the nuclear arsenal, including forces important for deterring Russia from aggression against NATO. Biden wants to, however, cancel the work on a sea-launched cruise missile that would broaden such options. It is unclear whether, in potential arms control talks, the current U.S. administration will uphold the postulate of limiting shorter-range Russian nuclear weapons, which is important for Poland.

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The Schengen Zone: While Croatia Joins, Further Enlargement Faces Challenges

Author(s): Jolanta Szymańska / Language(s): English

In December, EU interior ministers unanimously supported the expansion of the Schengen zone to include Croatia. At the same time, the Council did not agree on the membership of Romania and Bulgaria. The former was opposed by Austria, and the latter by both Austria and the Netherlands. Although Croatia’s smooth integration into Schengen may weaken the arguments of sceptics of further enlargement, without deep reforms of the entire system and the EU’s migration policy, it will be very difficult to obtain consent for membership of other candidates.

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Prospects Dim for Settling the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict

Author(s): Wojciech Wojtasiewicz / Language(s): English

Despite the intensification of talks between Armenia and Azerbaijan on settling the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, no breakthrough has been achieved. The leaders of the countries, respectively, Nikol Pashinyan and Ilham Aliyev, declare their willingness to reach an agreement, but have not come to terms on any major issue. The future status of Nagorno-Karabakh, guarantees for Karabakh Armenians, and the course of the Armenian-Azerbaijani border remain unresolved, raising fears of a renewed war.

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Russia Demands Security Guarantees from the U.S. and NATO

Author(s): Agnieszka Legucka / Language(s): English

On 10 December, the Russian Foreign Ministry issued a statement on the dialogue with the United States and other Western countries regarding security guarantees. The statement has an accusatory and provocative tone, and in it Russia makes a number of demands on the “collective West”. Poland can support the diplomatic efforts while also indicating that entering into negotiations with Russia on the terms it proposes would be detrimental to European security.

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Omicron: No Global Solidarity on the Pandemic

Author(s): Jędrzej Czerep / Language(s): English

Immediately after the World Health Organisation (WHO) announced a new coronavirus “variant of concern” called omicron on 26 November, more than 50 countries blocked travel to and from South Africa and neighbouring countries. WHO, African states, and the UN Secretary-General have accused the rich northern states of the selective use of inadequate measures that harm southern countries. To end the pandemic, it will be necessary to reduce the growing discrepancy between the northern and southern states through a solidarity-based approach to the fight against COVID-19.

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UK Policy towards Russia

Author(s): Aleksandra KOZIOŁ / Language(s): English

The UK has a two-pronged policy towards Russia: deterrence and containment, and limited dialogue. The improvement of relations is hampered by divergent positions on the war in eastern Ukraine and the crisis in Belarus, as well as Russia’s aggressive actions such as the chemical attack on British territory and cyberattacks. The UK will continue to insist on respect for international law, which will be a condition of any change in its position towards Russia. It is in Poland’s interests to work closely with the British, for example in increasing the defence capabilities of NATO’s Eastern Flank.

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NATO on the Road to a New Strategy

Author(s): Wojciech Lorenz / Language(s): English

During the meeting of NATO foreign ministers on 2–3 December 2020, a group of experts presented the report “NATO 2030. United for a New Era” about strengthening the political dimension and consultation mechanisms of the Alliance. The report indicates a possible consensus on the expansion of the Alliance’s tasks, including on a common policy towards China. The document increases the chances that the allies will decide to start work on a new NATO strategy.

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New EU Counter-Terrorism Agenda

Author(s): Aleksandra KOZIOŁ / Language(s): English

In December 2020, the European Commission adopted the Counter-Terrorism Agenda. It enhances coordination of counter-terrorism activities at the EU level and assumes a strengthening of the competences of Union bodies, such as Europol. Although the document properly identifies threats, controversy has arisen over the rules under which states should remove hate speech and terrorist content from the internet. An additional challenge is how to increase the effectiveness of preventing social radicalisation.

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Closing Ranks: Finland and Nordic Cooperation

Author(s): Veronika Jóźwiak / Language(s): English

Finland aims to ensure that the N5, the group of Nordic countries, will form the most integrated region in the world by 2030. This is part of Finland’s foreign and security policy response to the changing operating environment involving global challenges, problems with EU cohesion on basic issues, and the deteriorated security situation in the immediate vicinity of the country. To achieve this goal, Finland will use Nordic cooperation platforms, including the Nordic Council of Ministers (NCM), the work of which the country coordinates in 2021.

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The Missile Threat from North Korea and the U.S. Homeland Defence

Author(s): Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski / Language(s): English

Since 2012, North Korea has been progressing with different types of long-range ballistic missiles and their successful tests of them are a determinant in the U.S. missile defence plans for the continental United States, Hawaii, and overseas territories. One of most important recommended solutions by the Pentagon to these growing threats is the concept of a “layered” approach to homeland missile defence. The Joe Biden administration is expected to comprehensively review the concept and any actions would have a distinct effect on U.S. deterrence of North Korea and bilateral relations with China and Russia. It also will be important also for American allies in Europe.

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Artemis Accords: Towards New Rules for the Exploitation of Space

Author(s): Mateusz Piotrowski,Szymon Zaręba / Language(s): English

The Artemis Accords proposed by the U.S. are intended to develop new rules for the peaceful use of space, especially in terms of the extraction of mineral resources. However, the shape of some of the solutions will only be definitively established in practice. The degree of international acceptance will determine the success of the agreement, but is uncertain because of the reluctance of China and Russia to criticise the initiative as a unilateral imposition of standards by the U.S. For Poland, which is involved in NASA programmes and interested in closer bilateral cooperation with the space agency, joining the agreement may prove beneficial.

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Main Assumptions of the New U.S. Administration’s National Security and Foreign Policies

Author(s): Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski / Language(s): English

On 3 March, the White House published the Interim National Security Strategic Guidance (INSSG). It presents the main assumptions of administration policy ahead of the publication of the next U.S. National Security Strategy (NSS). The release of the INSSG was accompanied with a speech by Secretary of State Antony Blinken on foreign policy during Joe Biden’s presidency. The document and speech stress a clear departure from Donald Trump’s “America First” line, stressing protection of democratic values and signalling the most important strategic issues for U.S. allies, partners, and rivals.

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