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CSD Policy Brief No. 68: Monitoring Radicalisation and Extremism

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Over the last decade, radicalisation and extremism have become issues of particular concern for Europe. New risks of Islamist and far-right radicalisation have impelled the introduction of policies, the effects of which are only now being evaluated. As radicalisation that risks escalating into violence is more amenable to prevention than repression, having the capacity to detect early warning signs and trace the spread of extremist activity over time is critical. This brief outlines a set of methodologies for monitoring the risk of radicalisation and the trends in extremism based on an integrated approach to the indicators being monitored and the institutional mechanism doing the monitoring. These methodologies are designed to equip stakeholders – both governmental and non-governmental – with a tool which fuses a broad range of informational inputs; it will enable informed formulation of prevention and counter-radicalisation policies.

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Ръководство за наблюдение на принудително връщане

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): Bulgarian

The governance of migration flows largely depends on the development of an effective system for returning illegally staying foreigners. Forced return is seen as a "last resort" in the prevention of irregular migration and should be subject to the principles of proportionality and not exceeding reasonable force. In this regard, there is agreement that monitoring of return not only brings openness and clarity on the conditions and treatment, but represents an additional guarantee for the return of persons, including those with special protection needs. In this context, the introduction of an independent and effective monitoring mechanism is a key aspect for the development of the overall framework for forced return in accordance with Directive 2008/115/EC. The aim of the Handbook for forced return monitoring is to provide practical guidance and recommendations to independent observers and standardised report for forced return monitoring. This Handook is developed within the Annual Programme 2013 in scheme grants BG / RF (3) - 2013 "Forced return monitoring" by the Center for the Study of Democracy.

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Аналитичен доклад: Наблюдение на принудителното връщане в България

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): Bulgarian

The governance of migration flows largely depends on the development of an effective system for returning illegally staying foreigners. Forced return is seen as a "last resort" in the fight against illegal migration and should be subject to the principles of proportionality and not exceeding the reasonable force. In this regard, there is agreement that the monitoring not only brings openness and clarity on the conditions and treatment, but represents an additional guarantee for the return of persons, including those with special protection needs. In this context, the introduction of an independent and effective monitoring mechanism is a key aspect for the development of the overall framework for forced return in accordance with Directive 2008/115/EC. The aim of the developed Analytical report: Monitoring of the forced return in Bulgaria is to present an analysis on the existing legal and institutional framework in the area of forced return in Bulgaria and to make general recommendations for the development of a national mechanism to forced return monitoring. This Analytical report is developed within the Annual Programme 2013 in scheme grants BG / RF (3) - 2013 "Forced return monitoring" by the Center for the Study of Democracy.

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Bulgaria: National Energy Security Indicators and Policy Challenges (Country factsheet)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

The country factsheets present a critical review of the energy security governance in Bulgaria, Romania, Serbia and Ukraine, and map the main policy challenges faced by these countries in facilitating more transparent and data-driven decision making. The national and regional energy security of Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries has become a hot topic of discussion in the EU recently, focusing the attention of experts, policy makers, and the general public on ongoing and future energy projects but also on the features of energy governance in these countries. The fragile democratic traditions in the CEE countries, the existing networks of political protectionism and economic oligarchy, and the opaque business practices nurtured by corruption and links with organized crime, have been reinforced by the negative implications of Russian economic and geo-political influence. Russia has exploited its dominant position in the energy market and its long-term links with certain political and economic groups to shape political decisions across the region according to its own interests, but often to the detriment of the home country consumers. A major governance challenge for Bulgaria, Serbia and Ukraine is the lack of political agreement on a long-term national energy strategy with supporting financial instruments, which would lower the ad-hoc decision making, often related to suspicions of being influenced by private political and economic interests. Romania championed the group in terms of good energy governance due to the improved independence of the national energy regulator with the adoption of new legislation in 2012, as well as due to the continuing overall strong performance in the fight against corruption in the country. The governance of the state-owned energy enterprises in CEE is heavily influenced by political interference, distorting their investment independence and regulatory oversight. This is particularly visible in Bulgaria and Ukraine. The politically mandated downward pressure on electricity and gas prices in Bulgaria, Romania, and Serbia increases further the vulnerability of their energy sectors. The heavy dependence on a single source and route of gas supply is the major energy security risk for all countries. In Bulgaria and Ukraine, it is coupled with heavy dependence on oil import from the same country – Russia. While Romania, Bulgaria and Ukraine have undertaken diversification efforts, Serbia seems to favour the status quo, even at the expense of paying one of the highest wholesale prices of natural gas in Europe.

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Romania: National Energy Security Indicators and Policy Challenges

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

The country factsheets present a critical review of the energy security governance in Bulgaria, Romania, Serbia and Ukraine, and map the main policy challenges faced by these countries in facilitating more transparent and data-driven decision making. The national and regional energy security of Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries has become a hot topic of discussion in the EU recently, focusing the attention of experts, policy makers, and the general public on ongoing and future energy projects but also on the features of energy governance in these countries. The fragile democratic traditions in the CEE countries, the existing networks of political protectionism and economic oligarchy, and the opaque business practices nurtured by corruption and links with organized crime, have been reinforced by the negative implications of Russian economic and geo-political influence. Russia has exploited its dominant position in the energy market and its long-term links with certain political and economic groups to shape political decisions across the region according to its own interests, but often to the detriment of the home country consumers. A major governance challenge for Bulgaria, Serbia and Ukraine is the lack of political agreement on a long-term national energy strategy with supporting financial instruments, which would lower the ad-hoc decision making, often related to suspicions of being influenced by private political and economic interests. Romania championed the group in terms of good energy governance due to the improved independence of the national energy regulator with the adoption of new legislation in 2012, as well as due to the continuing overall strong performance in the fight against corruption in the country. The governance of the state-owned energy enterprises in CEE is heavily influenced by political interference, distorting their investment independence and regulatory oversight. This is particularly visible in Bulgaria and Ukraine. The politically mandated downward pressure on electricity and gas prices in Bulgaria, Romania, and Serbia increases further the vulnerability of their energy sectors. The heavy dependence on a single source and route of gas supply is the major energy security risk for all countries. In Bulgaria and Ukraine, it is coupled with heavy dependence on oil import from the same country – Russia. While Romania, Bulgaria and Ukraine have undertaken diversification efforts, Serbia seems to favour the status quo, even at the expense of paying one of the highest wholesale prices of natural gas in Europe.

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Миграция и вътрешна сигурност. Предизвикателствата пред миграционните политики на Европейския съюз и България

Author(s): Denislava Simeonova / Language(s): Bulgarian

Traditionally, migration processes are examined in the context of the labor market, humanitarian crises or social integration. The present study reveals a new dimension of migration which is considered one of the new security risks. The first chapter of the paper defines the various forms of migration with a focus on the consequences of illegal immigration. The second part discusses immigration as a threat to the public order and societal security in the EU member states and looks into the main stages of development of an EU immigration policy. After a review of the most important political and legal documents of the EU since the 80s, the study concludes that despite the active work of both the member states and the European Commission, currently a common European policy in the field of immigration does not exist. Further, the study examines the new trends in migration to the EU and the challenges to the establishment of a European “area of security, freedom and justice”, such as the anti-terrorism measures and the need for “replacement migration” due to the demographic changes. The third chapter is dedicated to Bulgaria as a country of origin and transit for immigrants to the EU. The main conclusion is that Bulgarian citizens represent a small percentage of the total number of immigrants in the EU and do not put its integrity and social security at risk. Particular attention is paid to the achievements of Bulgaria in harmonizing its immigration legislation with the “acquis communautaire” as well as to the need of further institutional and legislative improvements. The study also touches upon the following issues: • Who are the immigrants in the European Union and do they pose a risk to the internal order and safety of the European citizens? • Is the post-enlargement “immigrant wave” realistic? • What is EU’s reaction to the immigration from third countries? • What is the Bulgarian immigration policy with regard to the future external border of the EU? • What are the “pushing” factors for the Bulgarian immigrants to the EU? • How the EU countries treat Bulgarian immigrants?

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Counter-Terrorism Measures of the Republic of Bulgaria. Implementing United Nations Resolutions Against Terrorism

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

The CSD and Ministry of Foreign Affairs collected the main official documents related to the suppression of terrorism which had been adopted by the Bulgarian government and the UN Security Council. It provided a basis for discussion at the regional policy forum International Cooperation in Countering Terrorism held on June 27, 2002 in Sofia.

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Transit migration in Bulgaria

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

The Working Party on Information of the Vienna Group, at its meeting of 17 February 1993, discussed the Feasibility Study on the Establishment of a Migration Information System submitted by IOM and recommended that IOM should start implementing such a program. Two substantial migration flows to Western Europe cross Bulgaria. The first one is made up of migrants from the Middle East who intend to migrate to Central and Western Europe (above all Germany and Austria). The flow that previously passed through former Yugoslavia has now been largely re-oriented through Romania. A second flow comes from the Newly Independent States (NIS) and Romania, crossing Bulgaria and entering Greece.

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ГРАЖДАНИ ОТ ТРЕТИ ДЪРЖАВИ В БЪЛГАРИЯ. ПИЛОТНО ИЗСЛЕДВАНЕ ЗА МОНИТОРИНГ НА СОЦИАЛНО - ДЕМОГРАФСКИЯ СТАТУС И НАГЛАСИТЕ НА ГРАЖДАНИ ОТ ТРЕТИ ДЪРЖАВИ

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): Bulgarian

This presentation is part of the project "Creating a methodology and conducting a pilot study to monitor the socio-demographic status and attitudes of third-country nationals BG EIF 2008 / 02-05" on Component 5: Support for analyzes and studies to expand of existing databases and represents "Action 11: Dissemination of results - production of a presentation with the main results"

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Политически брифинг № 58 на CSD: ПРОЗРАЧНОЕ УПРАВЛЕНИЕ И ЭНЕРГОБЕЗОПАСНОСТЬ В ЦЕНТРАЛЬНОЙ И ВОСТОЧНОЙ ЕВРОПЕ

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): Russian

The national and regional energy security of Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries has become a hot topic of discussion in the EU recently, focusing the attention of experts, policy makers, and the general public on ongoing and future energy projects but also on the features of energy governance in these countries. The interruption of gas supplies to Europe as a result of the Russian-Ukrainian pricing dispute in 2009, the continuing Russian-Ukrainian crisis after the annexation of Crimea, and the EU-Russia controversies regarding the South Stream pipeline project, as well as Gazprom’s non-compliance with the EU regulations in several anti-trust cases in the past few years are the major cornerstones that shape the CEE energy security framework and policy options as the region remains heavily dependent on Russian oil, gas, and nuclear technology. At the same time, the fragile democratic traditions in the CEE countries, the existing networks of political protectionism and economic oligarchy, and the opaque business practices nurtured by corruption and links with organized crime, have been reinforced by the negative implications of Russian economic and geo-political influence. Russia has exploited its dominant position in the energy market and its long-term links with certain political and economic groups to shape political decisions across the region according to its own interests, but often to the detriment of the home country consumers. The current review of energy security risks in four selected CEE countries, two energy poor – Bulgaria and Serbia, and two energy-resourced– Romania and Ukraine, assesses the factual situation per se and the transparency and accountability of energy policy governance in the region.

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ДОБРО УПРАВЛЕНИЕ И ЕНЕРГИЙНА СИГУРНОСТ В БЪЛГАРИЯ. Policy Tracker: Енергийната политика на ЕС и Русия – предизвикателства и перспективи при спирането на газопровода „Южен поток“

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): Bulgarian

The present paper aims at tracking the development of the South Stream gas pipeline project from the perspectives of the EU and Russia, and in the context of the common EU external energy policy. The EU-Russia energy dialogue has become increasingly complicated since the two natural gas crises in 2006 and 2009, when the gas supply was cut for about two weeks due to a gas pricing dispute between Russia and Ukraine. Until then the energy relations between Europe and Russia have run smoothly as Gazprom had been perceived as a reliable supplier operating under long-term, oil-indexed contracts providing predictability of supplied volumes and prices. For producers such as Russia operating in a glut market, the most important goal was to preserve their market share in Europe. An eventual supply disruption would discredit suppliers and will push consumers look for more viable alternatives.

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Risks of Islamist Radicalisation in Bulgaria: A Case Study in the Iztok Neighbourhood of the City of Pazardzhik

Author(s): Mila Mancheva,Rositsa Dzhekova / Language(s): English

In the context of the escalation of extremist Islamist violence in many EC countries today, the issue of the risks of home grown Islamist radicalization in Bulgaria is the subject of heated public debates. Preventing and studying (Islamist) radicalization has become a priority in Europe, giving rise to wealth of publications that explore its motives and causes as well as the processes whereby individuals and groups come to espouse extremist ideas and engage in violent actions. Such studies are lacking in Bulgaria while worries about the potential influence that international terrorist organisations and the related Islamist extremist ideologies could exert in the country are rising. This working paper presents the results from a qualitative study aiming to attain understanding about the vulnerabilities to Islamist radicalisation among a group of inhabitants of the “Iztok” neighborhood of the city of Pazardjik who are considered at risk. The study explores the root causes and the social meaning of the adoption of Salafi interpretations of Islam on the part of sub group local Roma and the root causes and the social meaning of certain manifestations of sympathy with radical Islamist ideas and organisations among some members of the group. Careful attention is paid to the factors and channels through which the two processes are fostered. A discussion is provided to the issue of the vulnerabilities to potential radicalisation among members of the group of Roma professing Salafi interpretation of Islam.

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Енергийният сектор на България: основни проблеми в управлението

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): Bulgarian

The report analyses the major governance issues of the energy sector in Bulgaria, as well as the common energy crimes. It makes an overview of the 2020 Strategy and presents a recommended governance approach. The Bulgarian energy sector is key for the future development of the country’s economy. For the past decade energy exports and imports formed on average 12% (16% in 2008) and 21% (22% in 2008) of the value of the country’s outgoing and incoming trade flows respectively. Every fourth public procurement contract is concluded in the energy sector, making it one of the biggest taxpayers’ money spenders in the country. In 2008, in a single year, the Bulgarian government committed to energy projects, requiring budgetary investments equal in value to the whole EU funds support for the country for the current European seven year budget period 2007 – 2013.

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ЖЕРТВИТЕ НА ПРЕСТЪПНОСТТА СРЕД НАСЕЛЕНИЕТО И БИЗНЕСМЕНИТЕ В БЪЛГАРИЯ

Author(s): Boyan Stankov / Language(s): Bulgarian

In 2000 Bulgaria conducted a survey of crime victims among the population and business people on the initiative of the Turin-based UN Interregional Crime and Justice Research Institute (UNICRI), using its methods (the ICVS 2000 and ICBS 2000 questionnaires, face-to-face interviews). The survey was carried out in Sofia. Overall, 1,505 people were willing to participate out of a sample of 1,700, and 532 business people out of a sample of 550. Data collection and processing was assigned to Vitosha Research, a joint contractor of Gallup Hungary. Dr Boyan Stankov was national coordinator of the survey.

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Građanska čitanka

Author(s): Aleksandar Saša Zeković,Nikola Đurašković / Language(s): Montenegrine

Autori su u knjizi obuhvatili sve bitne i značajne pojmove, kategorije i institucije građanskog društva. U prvi deo knjige, u obliku eseja, uvrstili su pojmove, kategorije i institucije koje predstavljaju preduslove, uslove i principe dobro uređenog i razvijenog građanskog društva. Obrađena je demokratija kao vladavina koja odgovara i omogućava građansko društvo, lokalna samouprava na kojoj se temelje savremene demokratije i koja je od svih vlasti najbliža građanima i policija kao značajan i osetljiv organ bezbednosti zadužen za održavanje i garantovanje javnog reda i mira. Od uslova za utemeljenje građanskog društva autori su obradili ljudska prava na kojima se temelji građansko društvo i koja su smisao građanskog života, tržišnu privredu koja omogućava zdravu i ravnopravnu utakmicu u ekonomskom životu i nevladine organizacije kao udruženja koja neposredno artikulišu različite potrebe i interese pojedinaca i posebnih društvenih grupa. Takođe su obrađeni principi na kojima se zasniva građansko društvo - antimilitarizam, ravnopravnost polova, otklanjanje barijera za sve koji su u bilo kojem nepovoljnom položaju i suočavanje s prošlošću kao mogućem izboru nesporazuma u sadašnjosti i budućnosti.

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Gestionarea afluxului de refugiați în contextul crizei din Ucraina și impactul asupra Ordinii și Siguranței Publice

Author(s): Iulian Andon / Language(s): Romanian,French Publication Year: 0

Cet article vise à présenter les enjeux de la gestion de l'afflux de réfugiés dans le contexte de la crise en Ukraine et l'impact sur l'ordre et la sécurité publics. L'essence de la gestion du phénomène dans de telles situations réside dans la réaction rapide et appropriée aux événements qui menacent. Par conséquent, on peut dire que la gestion des situations de crise comprend l'ensemble des mesures adoptées à tous les niveaux du gouvernement, y compris les ministères, les conseils départementaux et locaux, afin d'assurer et de renforcer l'ordre et la sécurité publics. De ce fait, nous examinerons les causes de l'augmentation des valeurs de trafic aux points de passage frontaliers de l'État, les mesures adoptées dans le plan opérationnel afin de gérer l'afflux de réfugiés et l'impact sur l'ordre et la sécurité publics.

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Geografia omuciderilor în spațiul rural românesc (2011-2020)

Author(s): Octavian Groza,Vicenţiu-Robert Gabor / Language(s): Romanian Publication Year: 0

Consisting of extremely violent and seemingly random events, the phenomenon of homicides is often considered a sign of social pathology and thus the spatial dimension that it can acquire through the various processes that lead to its territorial rooting is lost sight of. Our research is focused on discovering the geographical dimensions of this phenomenon within the Romanian rural spaces. The choice of the rural area is not accidental: between 2011 and 2020 more than 62.5% of homicides were recorded in this environment, which, according to the official statistics of the 2021 census, amounts to only 47.8% of the total population. Noticing the spatial differentiation of the phenomenon allows, on the one hand, to support the construction of public prevention policies, and on the other hand, it allows the initiation of a reflection on the efficiency of the geographical distribution of the means available to the institutions charged with the administration of various operational aspects related to homicides.

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Scénáře světové politiky 2012–2013

Author(s): Tomáš Weiss,Vít Střítecký,Lucia Najšlová,Petr Kratochvíl,Michal Kořan,Nik Hynek,Vladimír Handl,Rudolf Fürst,Jan Eichler,Mats Braun,Vít Beneš / Language(s): Czech

The document presents a collection of speculative scenarios for world politics in 2012-2013, employing a scenario-building method to enrich foreign policy debate. It discusses the potential impacts of various global and regional developments on the Czech Republic and the EU, including fiscal pacts, the role of Germany in the Eurozone, Central European dynamics, EU relations with Turkey and China, the aftermath of American elections, the Iranian crisis, the situation in Afghanistan, the Asia-Pacific region, and Russian elections. The scenarios are not precise forecasts but internally consistent hypotheses that connect actors with future effects, aiming to capture key dynamics and possible consequences of otherwise conceivable actions.

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World Politics: Scenarios 2012–2013

Author(s): Vít Beneš,Mitchell Belfer,Mats Braun,Jan Eichler,Rudolf Fürst,Vladimír Handl,Nik Hynek,Michal Kořan,Petr Kratochvíl,Lucia Najšlová,Vít Střítecký,Tomáš Weiss / Language(s): English

Scenario building was first introduced in the U.S. security community in the 1950s. In RAND projects, “scenarios” (with the term consciously borrowed from the Holywood film industry to emphasize their storytelling character) evolved into a sophisticated auxiliary means of political decision-making. The method was thus born from the spirit of the Cold War, yet soon it found its way into the private sector, where it has served to manage corporate risk. More recently, scenarios witnessed a rise in popularity also in the think tank community as outcomes relevant for policy makers due to their potential to bridge theoretical knowledge with the needs of political practice (early warning potential) and as a means of broadening and deepening the space for public debate about global politics.

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Drawing the Links to Human Rights and Investing in People

Author(s): Maja Bjeloš,Marija Pavlović / Language(s): English

Cybercrime and cybersecurity have become critical issues in Serbia, reflecting a global trend of increasing cyber threats. In 2020, Serbia experienced approximately 26 million significant cyberattacks, including unauthorized data collection and intrusions into ICT systems. Citizens also faced severe violations of privacy, an uptick in attacks on human rights defenders, and challenges related to emerging technologies like biometric surveillance. Public concerns highlight the risk of these technologies being misused against citizens amid democratic backsliding. Recent incidents, such as internet fraud targeting major institutions and a cyberattack on Serbia's cadastre, underscore the urgent need for robust cybersecurity measures. Despite advances in the legal framework—anchored by the 2016 Law on Information Security and aligned with EU standards—implementation lags behind the evolving threats. Serbia’s cybersecurity landscape includes provisions for protecting critical infrastructure and digital networks while addressing cybercrime through international conventions like the Budapest Convention. The Belgrade Centre for Security Policy conducted a baseline analysis and interviews with stakeholders in early 2022 to evaluate the effectiveness of Serbia’s institutional and legal response to cybersecurity challenges. Although the country has made significant progress in legislative development, the enforcement of these measures remains insufficient to address the growing complexity of cyber threats. The report emphasizes the necessity for the state to uphold human rights and the rule of law while enhancing its capacity to combat cybersecurity risks effectively.

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