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Wagner Group Transforms in the Wake of the War in Ukraine

Author(s): Filip Bryjka / Language(s): English

Composed of mercenaries, the Wagner Group is being used by the Russian government to carry out operations in Ukraine and strengthen Russia’s influence in Africa and the Middle East. Its overt participation in the war in Ukraine has forced a change in the nature of the group from an elite unit carrying out special operations tasks to an organisation utilising mass conscription of convicts sent to the frontline. Russia bears the legal responsibility for the Wagner Group’s war crimes. To limit the group’s freedom of action, the EU and the U.S. should recognise it as a terrorist organisation and extend sanctions to its affiliates.

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In the Jumble of Priorities: French Defence Policy until 2030

Author(s): Łukasz Maślanka / Language(s): English

President Emmanuel Macron’s outline of the Military Programming Law (LPM) for 2024-2030, presented on 20 January, assumes a nominal 30% increase in spending compared to 2019-2025. While Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the need to prepare the armed forces for high-intensity combat are cited as the reasons, strengthening French partnerships in the Indo-Pacific, the Middle East, and the Mediterranean remain an even more important goal. Geographic location, nuclear deterrence, Germany’s Zeitenwende and Poland’s military ambitions mean that the French authorities do not consider the threat from Russia to be immediate.

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EU Smoothly Developing Military Mobility in Europe

Author(s): Aleksandra KOZIOŁ / Language(s): English

Democratic states can send military equipment to Ukraine faster thanks to EU military mobility, an initiative aimed at improving the transport of military personnel and assets across the continent. Unified military requirements as well as simplified transport procedures contribute to this. In response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the EU updated its directions for the development of military mobility. Implementation of the plans will, however, require increased financial outlays, especially for protecting transport infrastructure and supporting partners such as Ukraine and Moldova.

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Iran Continues Course as Half a Year of Protests Subside

Author(s): Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski / Language(s): English

The recent wave of protests in Iran is subsiding, decisively pacified by the security forces and lacking the emergence of opposition leaders. Because there is little chance that the authorities will implement any significant reforms, the conditions for another anti-system rebellion will remain in Iran. The need to strengthen and stabilise the Iranian regime will encourage it to further broaden partnerships with China and Russia.

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France’s Need to Be Different: Macron Policy Includes “Balancing Power”

Author(s): Łukasz Maślanka / Language(s): English

President Emmanuel Macron’s foreign policy, including in particular aid to Ukraine and the Indo-Pacific strategy, flows from an identical diagnosis with key NATO and EU allies of the international situation and threats. However, France’s actions are accompanied by the head of state’s rhetoric indicating the need to guard against unconditionally following U.S. policy and seeking a role for France and the EU as an independent actor and a “balancing power”. These statements, although partly conditioned by domestic policy needs, undermine France’s credibility and evoke associations with the concept of multipolarity and spheres of influence promoted by authoritarian powers.

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Using Frozen Russian Assets to Rebuild Ukraine: Possibilities for the EU

Author(s): Elżbieta Kaca / Language(s): English

The EU wants to finance the reconstruction of Ukraine, using for this purpose frozen Russian assets, among others. The European Commission proposes to improve the system of confiscation of private assets of sanctioned persons in case of criminal activity and to obtain income from the active management of immobilised Russian public assets. These solutions may yield limited results. To be more effective, the EU would have to reach an international agreement to confiscate the reserves of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation.

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Belarusian Foreign Policy Priorities Presents Challenges for Poland

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English

The signing of an agreement on the deployment of non-strategic Russian nuclear weapons on Belarusian territory is the realisation of one of the foreign policy priorities set out by Alexander Lukashenka in deepening the alliance with Russia. Belarus is also developing cooperation with other countries in Asia, the Middle East, and Africa. At the same time, it will continue to pursue a policy that is hostile towards Western countries, especially Poland, and towards Ukraine. Together with increasing military and special services cooperation between Belarus and Russia, this will raise additional challenges for NATO members, especially the Eastern Flank states, in deterrence and defence and building resilience to hybrid threats.

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Rivalry Flares between the Russian Army and the Wagner Group

Author(s): Filip Bryjka,Agnieszka Legucka / Language(s): English

The failures of the Russian armed forces in Ukraine have intensified disputes between Russian army leaders and the Yevgeny Prigozhin-led Wagner Group. Wagner has so far been useful in the fighting on difficult sections of the frontline in Ukraine, but it also has served the authorities by securing income and influence in Africa and the Middle East. Now, Vladimir Putin is diminishing Prigozhin’s achievements in Ukraine to prevent him from building an independent political position.

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Assessing the Potential of North Korean Ammunition and Weapons Deliveries to Russia

Author(s): Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski / Language(s): English

Military assistance from North Korea (DPRK) may partially meet Russia’s needs and help it in continuing the war with Ukraine. Its impact on the military situation depends on the continuity, quantity, and quality of supplies of ammunition and weapons. The developing secret military cooperation between the two countries demands the increased attention of Western intelligence services, publicising it on the international stage, and more active countermeasures by Ukraine’s partners.

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EU-South Korea Extend Cooperation Beyond the Economy

Author(s): Oskar Pietrewicz / Language(s): English

The 10th EU-Republic of Korea Summit, held on 22 May in Seoul, reaffirmed the importance of South Korea as a critical Asian partner of the Union. The meeting also signalled the growing importance of security issues in bilateral relations. South Korea shares the EU’s assessment of Russian aggression against Ukraine and intends to continue to support the invaded country, but not with supplies of military equipment for now. The announcement of a “green” partnership indicates both sides’ willingness to engage in other areas of cooperation, which also will benefit the development of Polish-South Korean relations.

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EU Starts New Partnership Mission and Continues Support for Moldova’s Security

Author(s): Aleksandra KOZIOŁ,Jakub Pieńkowski / Language(s): English

The EU Partnership Mission in Moldova was launched in May 2023. Its aim is to protect the country from hybrid attacks by Russia conducted in parallel to its aggression against Ukraine. The mission provides strategic advice to Moldova’s pro-European authorities - the government of Dorin Recean from President Maia Sandu’s Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS). This complements the efforts of the EU and Member States in supporting the capacities of the Moldovan civilian security structures and armed forces. Such broad engagement will increase Moldova’s overall resilience to Russia’s actions and contribute to stabilising the EU’s eastern neighbourhood.

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Gauging the Potential of Heavy Weapons Deliveries For Ukraine from the Middle and Far East

Author(s): Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski / Language(s): English

Russia’s continuation of the war in Ukraine and partial mobilisation suggest it is prepared for a prolonged conflict. These actions also imply the increased need for continued deliveries of heavy weapons and artillery munitions for Ukraine. In light of the shrinking capabilities of the Central Europeans and limits of the production capacities of Western defence industry (including the U.S.), there is a necessity for additional sources of deliveries. These gaps might be filled by U.S. allies and partners in the Middle and Far East.

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Russia Threatens Ukraine with Nuclear Weapons

Author(s): Artur Kacprzyk / Language(s): English

Russian threats increase the risk of nuclear weapons being used against Ukraine, but it still appears to be remote. Such an attack most likely would be preceded by more direct signals than Putin’s ambiguous warnings. Although such a strike would not guarantee a Russian victory, Putin might still order it in an act of desperation. To counter this risk, Russia must be convinced that a nuclear attack on Ukraine will trigger a strong international response, including conventional military intervention by the U.S. and its allies.

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Sanctions Against Russia: EU Seeks Coordination to Limit Circumvention

Author(s): Elżbieta Kaca / Language(s): English

The Russian authorities are constantly trying to circumvent EU economic restrictions. They use various methods of concealing trade in sanctioned goods, especially crude oil, including through companies from non-EU countries. The challenge for the EU is how to minimise these practices, which are facilitated by the differences between the Member States in detecting and pursuing such infringements. The Union should adopt common standards in this area as soon as possible. In coordination with the G-7, the EU could also add foreign companies participating in the circumvention schemes to sanctions lists.

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National Security Strategy: U.S. Focuses on Relations with Asia and Europe

Author(s): Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski / Language(s): English

The latest U.S. National Security Strategy (NSS) points to the crucial importance of the Asia-Pacific region for U.S. interests and the stability of the international order. At the same time, one of the messages of this key document is reassurance of European allies regarding the American commitment to NATO and Euro-Atlantic security. The strategy traditionally puts an emphasis on the need for Europeans to strengthen the Alliance’s conventional capabilities.

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What are the Prospects for Restricting the Entry of Russians to the EU?

Author(s): Aleksandra KOZIOŁ / Language(s): English

A large number of Russian citizens have tried to enter EU territory since a mobilisation order was announced in their country. Member States, however, could not agree on the criteria for issuing visas. The Baltic states, Poland, and Finland settled on the strictest entry restrictions. Reaching consensus in the EU would be an important political signal to the Russian authorities. A coherent announcement on this issue could also shift the dissatisfaction of Russian society towards the elites responsible for the attack on Ukraine.

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Iran Assists Russia with Weapons - the Military and Political Consequences

Author(s): Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski / Language(s): English

Iran is strengthening its informal alliance with Russia despite its initially cautious position on the war against Ukraine. The use of Iranian drones by Russia has been confirmed multiple times, and there are increased signals about the delivery to Russia of ballistic missiles. These systems will marginally affect the unfavourable military situation for Russia, but they likely will increase damage to Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure and the risk of another refugee wave. In this context, there is an urgent need for assistance for Ukraine with counter-drone and missile defences, as well as a change of EU policy towards Iran on the issues of non-proliferation, its nuclear programme, and the internal situation.

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Economy and Security are Keys to Türkiye - Russia Partnership

Author(s): Aleksandra Maria Spancerska / Language(s): English

Since the beginning of the Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has been the only NATO leader to hold regular meetings with Russia’s Vladimir Putin. Türkiye has attempted to mediate between Russia and Ukraine, is a party to the grain agreement, and has acted as an intermediary in the exchange of prisoners of war. However, Türkiye’s failure to join the sanctions imposed on Russia in connection with the invasion of Ukraine weakens solidarity within the North Atlantic Alliance, but at the same time keeps open the possibility of exerting influence on Russia.

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After the Danish Early Elections: Frederiksen Seeks a Broad Coalition

Author(s): Veronika Jóźwiak / Language(s): English

The outcome of the general elections in Denmark on 1 November marks a continuation of existing policies that have led to landmark security and defence decisions in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Converging threat perceptions and the launch of the Baltic Pipe’s receiving terminal in Nybro - crucial to Polish energy security - could be the basis for an expanded partnership between Poland and Denmark.

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Preparing for Russian Hybrid Activities Against NATO and EU Countries

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English

In pursuit of its goals in Ukraine, Russia will intensify hybrid activities, including information warfare, cyber-attacks, or acts of sabotage against the critical infrastructure of NATO and EU countries. These actions are intended to increase fear in the European public about an uncontrolled escalation of the conflict and further deterioration of the economic situation. In this way, Russia seeks to weaken Allied unity, which is necessary to continue the support for Ukraine, implement new strategies of the Alliance and the EU, and react quickly to emerging threats. The importance of building state and societal resilience at the level of individual states and both NATO and the EU is growing.

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