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Romania’s Relations with Ukraine: Cooperation Despite an Impasse

Author(s): Jakub Pieńkowski / Language(s): English

Since 2017, there has been an impasse in Romanian-Ukrainian relations caused by a bill limiting the language rights of national minorities in Ukraine, including Romanians. However, due to the fear of Russia’s aggressive policy in the Black Sea basin and despite negligible political contacts, the countries are developing defence and energy cooperation. Poland’s interest is in strengthening relations between Romania and Ukraine because it would have a positive impact on regional cooperation and the development of the Eastern Partnership.

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The Future of the Conflict in Yemen after the Change of U.S. Administration

Author(s): Sara Nowacka / Language(s): English

At the beginning of February, President Joe Biden announced the U.S. will end support for the coalition in Yemen led by Saudi Arabia and removed its foe, Ansar Allah, from the list of recognised Foreign Terrorist Organisations (FTO). Attempts to persuade the Arab coalition to withdraw from Yemen, together with the promise of maintaining the partnership with Saudi Arabia in other respects, may contribute to the signing of an effective ceasefire in Yemen and strengthen the peace process.

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“Trumpism”, the Long-Term Future of the Republican Party?

Author(s): Mateusz Piotrowski / Language(s): English

A lost presidency, the loss of the Senate majority, Trump’s attempts to challenge the election results, and his role in the Capitol riots on 6 January seem not to have dimmed the cooperation between the Republican Party and the former president. As a party, Republicans mostly rely on Trump and the pillars of his policy - “Trumpism”. Trump will strive to cement his position as the obvious candidate in the 2024 primaries, which may make Trumpism not a temporary phenomenon but one with a long-lasting impact on the Republican agenda, including in U.S. foreign and security policy.

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Prospects for Russia’s Policy Towards the South Caucasus

Author(s): Arkadiusz Legieć / Language(s): English

The priority of Russia’s policy towards the Caucasus is to maintain influence on the countries of the region, primarily through military instruments. Russia is striving to establish control over Nagorno-Karabakh (NK) using methods similar to the separatist republics of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, which will enable the Russian peacekeepers to remain in the NK after 2025. The EU and NATO’s priority in the Caucasus should be to counter Russia’s rapprochement with Turkey, which may limit the EU’s instruments in the region and adversely affect NATO cohesion.

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Syria: The End of Isolation? Arab States Seek to Normalise Relations

Author(s): Sara Nowacka / Language(s): English

In February, the Arab League (AL) re-opened the offices of one of its agencies in Syria, thus resuming activity in that country for the first time since the outbreak of the civil war in 2011. Most Arab states are now seeking to normalise relations with the Assad regime and criticise sanctions imposed by the U.S. and the EU against Syria, putting pressure on them to lift the restrictions. This position is conducive to the efforts of some EU countries, in particular Italy, which hosts a large number of Syrian refugees, to improve relations with Assad. This may contribute to a lack of consensus on EU policy towards Syria.

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Ukraine’s New Military Security Strategy

Author(s): Maciej Zaniewicz / Language(s): English

Ukraine’s new Military Security Strategy, adopted in March 2021, is based on the concept of comprehensive security. The potential for further Russian incursions is to be prevented by raising the costs of aggression through, among other things, the development of territorial defence forces, the modernisation of armaments, and the use of asymmetric defensive actions. The strategy sets achievable goals and its implementation will have a positive impact on Ukraine’s ability to defend itself against a massive Russian invasion. However, it will not prevent periodic escalations along the demarcation line in Donbas.

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Prospects for EU-UK Security Cooperation

Author(s): Aleksandra KOZIOŁ / Language(s): English

Brexit forced a re-definition of the rules under which EU-UK cooperation in the field of security should take place. However, a divergence of strategic interests may turn out to be apparent in the face of common challenges. The effectiveness of cooperation with the UK in the coming years will depend on the coherence of the EU position regarding the directions of involvement in foreign, security, and defence policy. They are to be determined by the ongoing work on the Strategic Compass.

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Sudan: Cooperation with the U.S. at Russia’s Expense

Author(s): Jędrzej Czerep / Language(s): English

In April, the Sudanese authorities ordered the suspension of the construction of a Russian naval logistics centre on the country’s Red Sea coast. The project was a cause for concern in the U.S., the EU, Saudi Arabia, and NATO. The Sudanese did not want to compromise American support for the country’s economic stabilisation, the scale of which gave the United States the advantage in its rivalry with Russia. The case also highlighted the growing regional importance of Sudan as it emerges from isolation.

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British Defence Strategy: Importance for NATO’s Eastern Flank

Author(s): Artur Kacprzyk,Wojciech Lorenz / Language(s): English

The United Kingdom has announced that it will strengthen its ability to shape global security and respond to threats from Russia. It intends to thoroughly modernise its military, although it also will permanently reduce its land forces. These changes may, in the long run, allow Britain to gain a force more effective on the modern battlefield, but before that happens, it may weaken British combat capabilities. Poland should look for new opportunities for cooperation with the UK to strengthen the common potential. A mutually beneficial form of cooperation could be Poland’s joining the UK-led Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF).

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United Opposition: The “Government of Change” Against Netanyahu

Author(s): Michał Wojnarowicz / Language(s): English

On 13 June, a coalition formed of eight opposition parties won a vote of confidence in the Knesset. This marks the loss of power by Benjamin Netanyahu, who was replaced as prime minister by Naftali Bennett. The new cabinet has a slim parliamentary majority and includes parties with a very diverse ideological profile, which will reduce its effectiveness and stability. In matters of security, the government will maintain the current policies, and in foreign affairs it will pursue an improvement in relations with the Biden administration and the EU.

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Prospects for V4-Japan Cooperation

Author(s): Veronika Jóźwiak / Language(s): English

Japan is updating and strengthening the political dimension of its cooperation with the countries of the Visegrad Group (the V4 - Czechia, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia). It was prompted by China’s growing involvement in the Balkans and the EU’s preparation of its Indo-Pacific strategy. In both cases, Japan counts on the support of the V4, which would benefit from tightening multidimensional cooperation with an Asian partner that does not raise objections in the EU. However, the V4 members’ inconsistent approaches to China may undermine the coordination of the political dialogue between Japan and the Visegrad states, although it is unlikely to have a negative impact on economic cooperation.

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Lithuania’s Plans to Strengthen Security Policy

Author(s): Kinga Raś / Language(s): English

The Lithuanian government has announced increased security activities related to its desire to improve the country’s defence capabilities and various responses to new conditions, which include the change of U.S. president, EU defence policy, and Russia’s actions against Belarus and Ukraine. The intensification of Lithuania’s security efforts has the potential to strengthen the bilateral cooperation with Poland.

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Ukraine’s Policy Towards Turkey

Author(s): Maria Piechowska / Language(s): English

The current revival of Ukrainian-Turkish contacts stems from Ukraine’s efforts to win over Turkey as an economic and defence partner in the face of Russian aggression. Both countries share the common goal of limiting Russian domination in the Black Sea. Turkey supports Ukraine’s territorial integrity and stands up for the Crimean Tatars, persecuted by Russia. Close bilateral relations may make Turkey - after the EU and the U.S. - one of Ukraine’s most important partners. However, the intensity of the political dialogue will depend on the state of Russian-Turkish relations.

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Defender Europe 21: Importance of the Military Exercises for Defence and Deterrence in Europe

Author(s): Wojciech Lorenz / Language(s): English

During the Defender Europe 21 exercises, U.S. troops tested a new concept of multi-domain operations, which is to provide them with an operational advantage over Russia and China. Continuing exercises with NATO allies is one of the main ways of developing defence and deterrence capabilities in Europe in the long term. Given the likely cuts in U.S. defence spending, NATO should increase its common military budget and allocate some funds to regular, large-scale exercises with significant U.S. involvement.

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The Biden Administration’s Vision of North Korea Policy

Author(s): Oskar Pietrewicz / Language(s): English

The main goal of U.S. policy towards North Korea remains the complete denuclearisation of the Korean Peninsula. The Biden administration intends to implement it by continued sanctions pressure, direct negotiations with North Korea, and coordination of actions with allies and other countries. The flexibility of the U.S. approach suggests its readiness to initiate talks aimed at freezing and limiting the North Korean nuclear programme. However, the vague nature of the American declarations and the expectant attitude towards North Korea pose the risk of maintaining the deadlock in the U.S.-North Korea talks and the further development of the North Korean nuclear and missile potential.

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Perspectives on the Introduction of a European Digital Identity

Author(s): Stefania Kolarz / Language(s): English

The European Commission’s (EC) proposal to introduce a European Digital Identity (eIDA), enabling electronic confirmation of personal data, is the next step in the development of the EU digital market. The eIDA is intended to increase trust among users of electronic services and may facilitate and speed the flow of documents between EU countries. Challenges include ensuring compatibility and the security of systems operated by individual Member States.

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Germany-U.S. Relations: A Return to the Strategic Partnership

Author(s): Lidia Gibadło,Mateusz M. Piotrowski / Language(s): English

Since Joe Biden’s presidency began, Germany’s relationship with the United States has improved. The U.S. made significant concessions, primary among them agreeing to the construction of the Nord Stream 2 (NS2) gas pipeline. This is a new opening for the U.S. in the bilateral relations and sets the foundations for the reconstruction of the strategic partnership with Germany that Biden sees as necessary to implement U.S. policy towards a post-Brexit Europe. However, the possible reluctance of the next German government to adopt a more confrontational policy towards China could be a challenge to that goal.

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A New Impulse for the Development of Military Mobility in the EU

Author(s): Aleksandra KOZIOŁ / Language(s): English

In May, the Council of the EU agreed that Canada, Norway, and the U.S. can join the EU’s Military Mobility project. This is the first decision to allow third countries to participate in Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO). The political impulse has the potential to improve the speed and flexibility of the deployment of military forces within the EU. However, a coherent approach by the EU and NATO should be maintained and joint investments in transport infrastructure increased.

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Jordan’s Political Strengthening: Regional and International Context

Author(s): Sara Nowacka / Language(s): English

The July meeting of U.S. President Joe Biden and Jordan’s King Abdullah II was a manifestation of the improvement in relations between the two countries. Abdullah’s distinction as the first Arab leader Biden met since becoming president confirms the shift in U.S. Middle East policy from the previous administration’s, which enhanced the kingdom’s destabilisation. Jordan’s stability is crucial for the EU to maintain its influence on the security situation in its immediate neighbourhood.

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The Potential Threat of the Ties between the Taliban and Al-Qaida

Author(s): Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski / Language(s): English

The collapse of Afghanistan’s government and security forces might increase the terrorist threat to the U.S. and Europe. During the period before 11 September 2001, the leaders of Al-Qaida and the Afghan fundamentalists cooperated closely. According to UN estimates, there are currently between a few hundred to a thousand members of Al-Qaida in Afghanistan. Despite weakening since the death of Osama bin Laden, Al-Qaida in future might use Afghanistan to regroup and as a safe haven.

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