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China-Russia: Strategic Partners Strengthening Cooperation

Author(s): Agnieszka Legucka,Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English

The cooperation between China and Russia has strengthened in the face of the Russian aggression against Ukraine and the common goal of weakening the West. This was confirmed by Xi Jinping’s visit to Moscow, which ended on 22 March. Chinese economic and diplomatic support, but also dual-use technologies, makes it easier for Russia to wage war. This increases the need to intensify U.S. and EU efforts in providing assistance to Ukraine and supporting the implementation of the interests of the Global South, which are receptive to the anti-Western message of Russia and China.

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Ending the War in Sudan will be Difficult

Author(s): Jędrzej Czerep / Language(s): English

Fighting in Sudan between the regular army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has been ongoing since 15 April. The clashes are mainly taking place in the capital, Khartoum, and in the Darfur region, causing the destruction of infrastructure, a humanitarian disaster, and the displacement of the population. Although neither side has achieved military superiority or the support of the population, they are determined to continue fighting until the opponent is eliminated, which makes efforts to achieve a permanent ceasefire difficult. In the longer-term, international support for a political solution to the crisis should aim to restore civilian control of the state.

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China Trying to Gain Greater Influence in Central Asia

Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English

The China-Central Asia Summit held in Xi’an in May confirmed China’s desire to strengthen its presence in the region at Russia’s expense. Among the reasons is Central Asian states’ scepticism of Russian aggression in Ukraine. At the same time, China’s stronger political and security-sector involvement is expected to confirm its image as bringing stability to the international situation. To balance Russian-Chinese influence in Central Asia, the EU would be advised to accelerate the implementation of investment projects in the region and to intensify, together with the U.S., the dialogue with states there, especially on tightening sanctions against Russia.

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EU and NATO Countries Strengthen the Protection of Critical Infrastructure

Author(s): Filip Bryjka,Tomasz Zając / Language(s): English

New EU regulations on critical infrastructure could strengthen the resilience of the Member States to hybrid threats from Russia and China. The main challenge, however, will be to develop and implement precise standards for the protection of such infrastructure jointly with NATO. It will be necessary to exchange experience in this regard among states and on the state-private sector line. This may provoke resistance among some Member States reluctant to share sensitive information.

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Rapprochement with Russia, Alienated from the EU: AfD Congress Confirms the Party’s Radicalisation

Author(s): Łukasz Jasiński / Language(s): English

The June congress of Alternative for Germany (AfD) confirmed the growth of the party’s radical wing and its anti-system, populist character. The AfD’s proclamations of anti-EU views are accompanied by demands for close cooperation with Russia. In the coming months, the AfD leadership will seek to make political gains from growing fears of inflation and the energy crisis through social appeals.

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South Korea-NATO Cooperation Intensifies

Author(s): Oskar Pietrewicz / Language(s): English

The participation of South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol at the June NATO summit was an element of the Alliance’s deepening cooperation with its Asia-Pacific partners. Strengthening ties with NATO and its member states in areas such as cybersecurity and the defence industry serves to raise South Korea’s position as an actor contributing to international security. The country’s increasingly clear stand on the side of the U.S. in the rivalry with China and Russia, which are actively undermining the current international order, may coarsen its relationship with China and result in increasing tensions on the Korean Peninsula.

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What are the Prospects the U.S. Authorities will Designate Russia a State Sponsor of Terrorism?

Author(s): Andrzej Dąbrowski,Szymon Zaręba / Language(s): English

In July, Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi called on the U.S. Secretary of State to designate the Russian Federation as a state sponsor of terrorism. In response, Secretary Antony Blinken expressed scepticism as to whether such a step was needed, revealing differences between the administration and Congress on the issue. Including Russia on the list would have a number of legal and financial consequences, such as increased restrictions and opening a discussion on possible secondary sanctions against Russia.

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Ethiopia and Tigrayans Pursue a Complicated Peace

Author(s): Jędrzej Czerep / Language(s): English

The recognition by Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed that the use of force in Tigray province has been ineffective is, with international diplomatic efforts, conducive to ending the Ethiopian civil war. Preparations are underway to start direct talks between the central government and the Tigrayan leadership. EU and U.S. envoys primarily seek to unlock basic services from the Ethiopian government for the inhabitants of Tigray.

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Assessing the Perspectives on the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict

Author(s): Arkadiusz Legieć / Language(s): English

Another armed escalation between Armenian and Azeri forces, initiated by Azerbaijan, took place in Nagorno-Karabakh in early August this year. The country’s goal is to exert maximum political pressure on Armenia during two-track peace talks under the auspices of the EU and Russia. At the moment, there is no chance of resolving the conflict, as it would not benefit Azerbaijan, which is the stronger side of the conflict, nor Russia, which is using the situation in the NK to emphasise its role as a mediator and to get the U.S. and EU countries to resume political dialogue with it.

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Russia Recruiting Volunteers to Fight in Ukraine

Author(s): Filip Bryjka / Language(s): English

Since the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine, Russia has refrained from declaring a general mobilisation. It is trying to make up for the high losses of soldiers by, among other things, organising regional recruitment campaigns for volunteers. By the end of August this year, the authorities of the federation’s various entities are expected to have prepared around 34,000 new recruits for the fighting in Ukraine. In all likelihood, Russia will not be able to fully achieve this goal, and the formed battalions will not have significant combat value due to their poor level of training. Thus, they will probably suffer heavy losses, but the increasing number of casualties will not translate into a change in Russian tactics in Ukraine.

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Extended Nuclear Deterrence Capabilities Under Debate in the U.S.

Author(s): Artur Kacprzyk / Language(s): English

The U.S. Congress will likely reverse President Joe Biden’s decision to discontinue the development of a sea-launched nuclear cruise missile. While the U.S. is already planning to substantially enhance other capabilities to deter a nuclear attack on the allies, this missile could provide an additional hedge in an uncertain security environment in which the threat from Russia may grow further still. While the capability might strengthen deterrence of Russia, it would not replace NATO’s current nuclear capabilities in Europe as a means to demonstrate the resilience of the whole Alliance to nuclear threats.

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China Tightens Policy towards Taiwan

Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English

China treated the visit of Speaker of the House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan at the beginning of August as an expression of U.S. efforts to change the status quo in the region. The reaction of the Chinese authorities was calculated as a controlled escalation of tensions in the Taiwan Strait, but without the risk of direct military confrontation. Harsh rhetoric, military exercises around the island, and the limitation of dialogue with the U.S. confirmed the intention of China to take over Taiwan in the coming years. For the EU, this means the need to intensify support for Taiwan, including the development of political and economic contacts.

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Russia Blocks Consensus Outcome of the NPT Review Conference

Author(s): Łukasz Kulesa / Language(s): English

On 26 August, Russia blocked the adoption of the final document of the Tenth Review Conference of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). It opposed the proposed provisions regarding the threats to the security and safety of Ukrainian nuclear installations, in particular the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. Russia's decision has weakened the international non-proliferation regime. The course of the conference also showed increased divisions between nuclear states and their allies, and supporters of swift and complete nuclear disarmament.

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The EU and RES: From Fighting Climate Change to Fighting Russia

Author(s): Zuzanna Nowak / Language(s): English

Renewable energy sources (RES) are a key tool in EU climate policy. They can also be an important remedy to the problems of the shortage of energy resources and political abuses of control over them by producers and suppliers. However, at the current level of development of RES technologies, their use is associated with risks for energy security. For the EU, which wants to accelerate the development of its renewable energy potential in the wake of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, a simultaneous goal should be to reduce the vulnerability of the European energy market to renewable energy challenges, such as cyberattacks or lack of access to critical raw materials.

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EU Weighs Lessons of the Temporary Protection Directive for the Future of Asylum Policy

Author(s): Jolanta Szymańska / Language(s): English

In response to the mass of refugees following the Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the EU activated a 2001 directive to grant refugees from the latter country temporary protection on the territory of the Member States. The use of this instrument has provided an impetus for the bottom-up relocation of refugees within the EU and accelerated the delivery of assistance, avoiding overloading national asylum systems. Although the positive experiences with the application of the directive will be important for further work on the reform of the EU asylum system, it will not become the basis of a new solidarity mechanism in a crisis.

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Canada Confronts Challenges in Defence Policy

Author(s): Paweł Markiewicz / Language(s): English

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine further increased Canada’s support for Ukraine, which was already strong before the war. Despite previous resistance, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau decided to increase the defence budget and make new investments in military capabilities. However, the scale of challenges concerning technical modernisation of the Canadian Armed Forces means that strengthening the military presence in Europe will not be a priority for Canada. The country’s role in further strengthening the Eastern Flank, in accordance with decisions reached at the NATO Summit in Madrid, will likely be limited.

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Surviving by Minimalism: Slovakia’s V4 Presidency

Author(s): Łukasz Ogrodnik / Language(s): English

The Hungarian government’s reaction to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has undermined the trust of Poland, Czechia, and Slovakia. This limits political cooperation within the Visegrad Group (V4) and has a negative impact on its activities, including in the field of defence. Therefore, Slovakia, which on 1 July took over the year-long presidency of the V4, plans to focus on non-controversial topics such as transport, culture, and tourism. At the same time, it wants to be more actively involved in other platforms of regional cooperation, mainly the Slavkov Triangle.

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Countering Russian Disinformation about Ukraine in the EU

Author(s): Elżbieta Kaca / Language(s): English

Russia is actively conducting disinformation campaigns in the EU regarding its war in Ukraine, which may weaken the support for the latter country in some Member States in the long run. Although the EU is trying to counteract the messages, the challenges included the circumvention of sanctions by Russian media and the limited possibilities of controlling the activities of internet platforms. For Poland, it is important to further strengthen the EU’s ability to counter disinformation by, for example, expanding the East Strat-Com monitoring cell.

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In the Shadow of the War in Ukraine, Russia Holds Vostok 2022 Manoeuvres

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English

On 1-7 September, in Russia’s Far East (in the Eastern Military District), the largest military drills this year involving the Russian Armed Forces, Vostok 2022, took place. Because of Russia’s involvement in the armed conflict in Ukraine, the importance of the drills was to be much greater than in the previous edition in 2018. Russia’s goal was to show that its involvement in Ukraine has not adversely affected its operational capabilities and that it has an established network of military partners, including China and India. However, the course of the exercises showed that the losses in Ukraine have reduced the potential of the Russian Armed Forces, especially the Land Forces.

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China as a Challenge for NATO: Weighing Its Influence on the Collective Defence of the Alliance

Author(s): Wojciech Lorenz / Language(s): English

NATO has recognised China’s policies as a challenge to Euro-Atlantic security, an area which, according to the North Atlantic Treaty, is the Alliance’s primary responsibility. This designation allows for the strengthening of strategic relations between the U.S. and its European allies, on which the credibility of NATO’s collective defence depends. However, it will be necessary to clarify the division of responsibilities between the U.S. and other allies related to both the defence of the treaty area and wider international security in the face of threats from Russia and China.

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