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Ukraine Seeking to Narrow Long-Range Missile Gap

Author(s): Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski / Language(s): English

Ukraine has negligible capabilities for missile strikes at ranges greater than 100 km. This gap in Ukrainian offensive systems slows the conduct of counter-offensives and will hinder its strategic isolation of Crimea, as well as defence and deterrence in the future. Filling this gap requires decisions by Ukraine’s main partners on supplying it with, primarily, ATACMS and Taurus missiles.

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NATO Vilnius Summit Focused on Ukraine, but Still No Invitation

Author(s): Wojciech Lorenz / Language(s): English

Ukraine was not invited to join NATO at the Alliance’s most recent summit, which was supposed to guarantee its accession to the Alliance after the end of the war with Russia. However, it can count on bilateral long-term security commitments from the G7 countries. NATO, for its part, has taken decisions to ensure long-term practical support for Ukraine and to increase its chances for membership. The main challenge for Ukraine will be to convince the Biden administration that NATO enlargement is less risky and less costly than bilateral security commitments.

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Putin Begins Dismantling Prigozhin’s “Empire”

Author(s): Jędrzej Czerep,Agnieszka Legucka / Language(s): English

The consequence of Yevgeny Prigozhin’s mutiny will be the seizure of some of his assets by President Vladimir Putin’s trusted people. Prigozhin has carried out many activities useful to the Russian power elite, both in Russia and abroad. Thanks to the Prigozhin-led Wagner Group, Russia has been consolidating its influence on the African continent and enjoying some military success on the Ukrainian front. NATO countries can benefit from the weakening of the Wagner Group, but Poland should also prepare for hybrid actions by the mercenaries from Belarusian territory.

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End of Illusions in Relations between China and Central Europe

Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English

As a result of the Russian aggression against Ukraine, there is currently no possibility of improving relations between China and most Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries. The reasons are China’s strategic partnership with Russia and the undermining by both countries of the key role of the U.S. and NATO for European security. China is trying to limit the potential negative effects for itself of the policies of the CEE countries, which, after turning back the Russians, want to strengthen transatlantic cooperation and tighten the EU approach towards China.

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What is the Present and Future of Poland’s Cooperation with Taiwan?

Author(s): Justyna Szczudlik / Language(s): English

In recent years, Poland has been strengthening its relations with Taiwan. These activities are in line with the deepening cooperation between Taiwan and the EU and some of its Member States, mainly from Central Europe. The rationale is the growing international importance of the island, including its role in global supply chains and international security. Although the intensification of bilateral cooperation is conducted cautiously, it may result in increased tensions in Poland-China relations.

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Russian Aggression Speeding up Changes in Religious Situation in Ukraine

Author(s): Maria Piechowska / Language(s): English

The Russian invasion of February 2022 resulted in an increase in religiosity in Ukraine. The socio-political position of the currently largest autocephalous Orthodox Church of Ukraine (OCU) in terms of number of believers has strengthened. It plays a major role in sustaining Ukrainian morale. At the same time, the Ukrainian Orthodox Church-Moscow Patriarchate (UOC-MP) is losing importance and its pro-Russian activities are not translating into a lowering of the resilience of Ukrainian society.

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Turkish Diplomacy Utilises Transactionalism in EU, U.S. Relations

Author(s): Aleksandra Maria Spancerska / Language(s): English

On 10 July, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan agreed to submit a protocol to the Turkish parliament approving Sweden’s membership of NATO and pledged to revive discussions on Türkiye’s accession to the European Union. The return to a pro-Western narrative and attempts at a new opening in relations with the EUand the U.S. are mainly motivated by the economic factor. At the same time, the Turkish authorities continue their transactional approach to foreign policy, which translates into a desire to maintain good relations with Russia.

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The New German Government on Participation in NATO Nuclear Sharing

Author(s): Artur Kacprzyk / Language(s): English

Germany’s new ruling coalition declares the country’s continued participation in an arrangement on hosting U.S. nuclear bombs, and the replacement of German aircraft to deliver the weapons. Discussion on procurement of the planes might be difficult, however, due to criticism in Germany of nuclear weapons and nuclear sharing by numerous parliamentarians from the coalition parties and possible disputes over the choice of specific aircraft. A delay in the entry into service of the new planes would risk reviving the debate on Germany’s involvement in nuclear sharing.

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Closer to France: Hungary and the EU after Chancellor Angela Merkel

Author(s): Veronika Jóźwiak / Language(s): English

The establishment of a new coalition government in Germany may give rise to greater involvement of the Hungarian government in bilateral relations with France and the French vision of the EU’s development. By working more closely with France, especially in European defence policy, Hungary can counterbalance its weak position in the Union stemming from disputes over the rule of law. At the same time, Hungary can pursue its political goals, such as establishing a new dialogue between the EU and Russia in the current political conditions.

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The CSTO Operation in Kazakhstan

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English

On 5 January, in response to mass anti-government protests, the president of Kazakhstan asked the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) for help. All member states responded positively and the organisation launched its first mission of this kind. For Russia, the mission had significant political and military importance and was an opportunity to demonstrate the CSTO’s potential to conduct military operations in the post-Soviet area.

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Prospects for Kazakhstan’s Internal and Foreign Policy

Author(s): Arkadiusz Legieć / Language(s): English

The largest anti-government protests in Kazakhstan’s history have weakened the stability of the regime and its international position. President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev used suppression of the demonstrations to seize full power in the state and remove the influence of Nursultan Nazarbayev, who had been controlling things behind the scenes. He turned to military support from the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO), which will increase Kazakhstan’s dependence on Russia and permanently limit its room for manoeuvre in foreign policy, hampering its relations with the EU and the U.S.

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Humanitarian Catastrophe in Afghanistan: A Crisis by Choice

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English

One of the world’s most serious humanitarian crises is taking place in Afghanistan and it is largely the result of flawed assumptions of Western policy following the Taliban’s seizure of power. The West’s suspension of development aid has led to the collapse of the economy and to hunger for millions of Afghans. Instead of forcing the Taliban to respect human rights, the actions will have the opposite effect - a humanitarian catastrophe, mass migration, and a failed state. The European Union may soon face these effects directly, so it should take steps to resume development cooperation and avert the worst-case scenario.

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Türkiye on Sweden’s and Finland’s Membership in NATO

Author(s): Aleksandra Maria Spancerska / Language(s): English

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan of Türkiye is threatening to veto Sweden’s and Finland’s membership application to NATO. He seeks to divert attention from the economic situation in the country and aims to mobilise the conservative-nationalist part of the electorate before the elections in 2023. The arguments of Turkish decision-makers show that the ruling coalition prioritises self-interest over Alliance cohesion even in the face of the Russian threat. The transactional attitude of Turkish decision-makers in the long term will strain Türkiye’s reputation and allied credibility in NATO.

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The Impact of Finland’s and Sweden’s Accession to NATO on the Security of the Alliance

Author(s): Wojciech Lorenz / Language(s): English

The accession of Finland and Sweden to NATO will increase the Alliance’s ability to conduct collective defence missions in the Baltic Sea region and to deter Russia. Therefore, the gains from the enlargement of the Alliance will far exceed the costs, which may include the need to create a new command responsible for missions on the Northern Flank of NATO. However, Türkiye’s opposition may prolong the accession process and increase the risk associated with the intensification of Russia’s provocative actions against the candidates.

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U.S. Increases Military Presence in Europe

Author(s): Artur Kacprzyk / Language(s): English

In the face of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the U.S. has substantially increased its military presence in Europe, including on NATO’s Eastern Flank, although most of the additional deployments have been so far of a temporary nature. Itis not clear whether the U.S. will opt to significantly strengthen its forces in Europe in the long term over the state in late 2021, given that Russia is being weakened by the war and NATO members announcing increased defence investments. Without substantial U.S. involvement, however, it will not be possible to adequately enhance NATO’s deterrence and defence against Russia, which will be determined to rebuild its armed forces.

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Problems and Capability Gaps in Military Aid for Ukraine

Author(s): Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski / Language(s): English

International support for Ukraine has played an important role in preserving its independence, but is still not enough to stop the Russian offensive in Donbas. With the current high-intensity conflict, military supplies to Ukraine are not at the necessary level and not arriving on time. Many political, administrative, and technical issues are slowing down necessary military aid. Western partners might turn to much better, already available options to replace Ukraine’s damaged and lost heavy weapons, while also supporting the countries of Central Europe.

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Romania’s Support for Ukraine Clear but Restrained

Author(s): Jakub Pieńkowski / Language(s): English

Although Romania is among the countries of NATO’s Eastern Flank most fearful of Russian aggression, it pursues a policy of wait and see on the war in Ukraine. It supports the latter politically but has given only symbolic military aid. It is in Poland’s interest to persuade Romania to increase its support for Ukraine to help it fight off the Russian aggression, which could also contribute to a lasting increase in trust between Poland and Romania that in turn could foster post-war cooperation in the region.

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ISIS Increasingly Eyes Sub-Saharan Africa

Author(s): Jędrzej Czerep / Language(s): English

Sub-Saharan Africa is becoming a priority for ISIS, which seeks to strengthen its potential and propaganda in the region where the terrorist organisation has staged the most attacks in recent months. The increasing ties between Sub-Saharan militant groups and ISIS Central, in conjunction with the weakening military involvement of France in the region, will make it difficult to combat terrorism. It will also increase the threat to European entities in the region, but not Europe itself.

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Ethiopia and Tigrayans Pursue a Complicated Peace

Author(s): Jędrzej Czerep / Language(s): English

The recognition by Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed that the use of force in Tigray province has been ineffective is, with international diplomatic efforts, conducive to ending the Ethiopian civil war. Preparations are underway to start direct talks between the central government and the Tigrayan leadership. EU and U.S. envoys primarily seek to unlock basic services from the Ethiopian government for the inhabitants of Tigray.

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China: the consequences of the ‘zero COVID’ strategy

Author(s): Michał Bogusz / Language(s): English

In the first half of 2020, it seemed that, with its ‘zero COVID’ strategy, China had outperformed many other countries in its efforts to contain the pandemic. Two years on, when COVID-19 is no longer a critical issue for most of the world, the pandemic situation in China, whose population has not acquired collective immunity, is becoming increasingly difficult. Furthermore, the economy is grappling with challenges that the rest of the world has largely moved on from and is facing new ones arising from the Russian invasion of Ukraine. At the same time, the fight against coronavirus has become politicised and has largely become stripped of its health dimension. China is sinking deeper and deeper into self-isolation, which is beginning to have a negative impact on its international environment, and the continuation of its ‘zero COVID’ strategy is destabilising the global economic system by disrupting supply chains.

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