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Online Warfare: Russian Policy on International Information Security

Author(s): Agnieszka Legucka / Language(s): English

Russia in April this year updated its policy on international information security (IIS). Compared to the previous version of the document from 2013, Russia points to the possibility of an interstate conflict as a result of activities in cyberspace. Russia also promotes the concept of “sovereign internet” and aims to increase its influence in the field of global regulations concerning the development of the network. The publication of the document confirms the priority for information security in the national security strategy and in the foreign policy of the Russian Federation.

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Strengthening the EU’s Role in Cybersecurity

Author(s): Aleksandra KOZIOŁ / Language(s): English

The ongoing pandemic has increased the use of digital technologies and intensified the threats they pose. Therefore, the EU faces the need to strengthen its ability to detect and respond to hostile cyber activities. New initiatives should, above all, improve the cooperation of EU institutions with Member States and private entities. However, their effectiveness will be limited by low and dispersed financing.

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The Central Five: Wrapping Up the Forum’s First Year

Author(s): Łukasz Ogrodnik,Tomasz Żornaczuk / Language(s): English

The cooperation platform Central Five (C5), involving the ministers of foreign affairs of Austria, Czechia, Slovenia, Slovakia, and Hungary, launched in June 2020, was intended to improve coordination related to the COVID-19 pandemic. The annual functioning of the Central Five shows, however, that the cooperation has been extended to new topics and partners in the “C5+” formula. It is in Poland’s interest that the issues discussed within the Central Five become the subject of closer consultations in the Visegrad Group, and that Czechia, Slovakia, and Hungary are not involved in the work of the C5 at the V4’s expense.

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Belarus and Russia: Accelerated integration

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English

Over the past few months, Belarus and Russia have stepped up talks on the conditions for further integration. Russia wants to take advantage of Belarus’ international isolation after the rigging of last year’s presidential elections as that country is increasingly dependent on it. The deepening integration of the countries will not only reduce Belarus’ sovereignty, but will have consequences for regional security.

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Development and Budgeting of U.S. Hypersonic Defence Projects

Author(s): Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski / Language(s): English

In parallel to the development of hypersonic weapons, the Americans are also researching active defences against this kind of threat. So far, the Pentagon has revealed few of its hypersonic defence (HD) projects, although the U.S. Congress each year has increased funds for these efforts. The first generation of HD systems will force a choice between the most effective systems and the use of elements of “classic” missile defence. The resulting increased deterrence potential of the U.S. in Asia and Europe might be favourable for its allies, which have no real capabilities to build indigenous, holistic, and integrated HD systems.

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Implications of Nord Stream 2’s Completion for Ukraine

Author(s): Bartosz Bieliszczuk,Maciej Zaniewicz / Language(s): English

Commissioning of the Nord Stream 2 (NS2) gas pipeline will lead to a halt in the transit of Russian gas to the EU via Ukrainian territory, which will have a negative impact on Ukraine’s security and fiscal situation. Germany, the main promoter of NS2 in the EU, managed to persuade the U.S. administration to allow the project to be finalised in exchange for promises of German-American support for Ukraine. The real aim of the German initiative, however, is to defuse the controversy surrounding NS2 rather than to provide tangible support for Ukraine. The planned compensation does not adequately consider the security implications for the country of the construction of the pipeline.

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Canada’s Transatlantic Agenda

Author(s): Paweł Markiewicz / Language(s): English

Canada is strengthening its economic and security relations with Europe. The search for new areas of cooperation with the European Union (EU) is linked to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s plans for rebuilding the economy in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. This is an element of a broader strategy that seeks to tighten transatlantic relations and assist democratic partners in their long term rivalry with China and Russia. Common positions on climate issues, technological development, and defending civil rights will foster deeper strategic cooperation.

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Prospects for U.S.-EU Tech Cooperation

Author(s): Marta Makowska,Paweł Markiewicz / Language(s): English

The European Union is strengthening tech cooperation with the United States through the recently appointed Trade and Technology Council, among others. New transatlantic projects and greater coordination in areas such as artificial intelligence (AI), securing supply chains, and cybersecurity are elements of a broader strategy aimed at competing with China on technology. The biggest challenge for the EU and U.S. will be in coordinating their policies towards large tech companies, including planned European competition legislation for the digital market that will impact American firms.

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A Year Later: Status and Perspectives on Israeli-Arab Normalisation

Author(s): Michał Wojnarowicz / Language(s): English

Israeli-Arab normalisation launched in August 2020 has proved to be a stable process so far. Relations are deepened by the interest of the parties despite changing conditions (e.g., the new government in Israel and the U.S.) or the escalation of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The future of the process remains dependent on U.S. policy towards the region and the scale of support for the new Israeli government.

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Cautious Triumphalism: China on Afghanistan

Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English

The Taliban takeover of Afghanistan and the end of the U.S. military mission is being used by China as evidence of the failure of American interventionism. Chinese propaganda emphasises the advantage of its own model of relations with other countries, marked by the declared lack of interference in their internal affairs. The Chinese authorities do not want to engage economically in Afghanistan for the time being, as they do not believe that the Taliban will provide efficient administration or security for possible investments. China instead will focus on political support and limited humanitarian aid in cooperation with regional countries, as well as with the EU.

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Taliban Takeover of Afghanistan: Consequences for NATO

Author(s): Wojciech Lorenz / Language(s): English

The Taliban takeover of Afghanistan will not change NATO’s overall threat perception, which will be shaped mainly by the military threat from Russia, challenges related to the rise of China, and instability in Europe’s neighborhood. Criticism of NATO may, however, influence discussions on a new strategy, which should facilitate adaptation of the Alliance to new threat assessment. There will be increased pressure on the development of crisis-response capabilities within the coalition of the willing and the European Union.

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The Fall of Afghanistan: The Biden Administration’s First Crisis

Author(s): Mateusz Piotrowski / Language(s): English

The chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan sparked the first major crisis of confidence in President Joe Biden and his administration, both in the U.S. and internationally. It has affected the administration’s relations with Democrats in Congress, whose confidence in the president has weakened. This narrows the president’s freedom to conduct foreign policy. At the same time, the way the U.S. withdrew from Afghanistan will be used by its rivals to undermine American guarantees to Allies and the U.S. standing in the international arena.

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Consequences of the Duma Elections on Russia’s Domestic and Foreign Policy

Author(s): Agnieszka Legucka / Language(s): English

The course and results of the elections to the State Duma indicate a strengthening of Russia’s authoritarian regime and, at the same time, show the growing crisis of legitimacy for President Vladimir Putin. The response of the Russian authorities will be further centralisation of power and repression of citizens. Despite Russians’ growing economic difficulties, the macroeconomic situation will remain stable, which is crucial for the ruling elite. In foreign policy, Russia may more frequently use military activity (including in Ukraine), escalating tensions and hybrid actions against some EU states and the U.S.

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ASEAN in U.S. Foreign Policy

Author(s): Damian Wnukowski / Language(s): English

In recent months, the U.S. has sought to strengthen relations with ASEAN countries, as evidenced by President Joe Biden’s participation in the U.S.-ASEAN virtual summit and by the defence secretary’s and vice president’s visits to the region. The U.S. wants to strengthen its position in the Indo-Pacific and limit China’s influence in the region. Key for the U.S. will be to present a comprehensive and long-term offer to the ASEAN members, for example, in the security and economic spheres. The EU can expand on the U.S. approach to broader cooperation in areas that are important to it, such as the stability of sea routes.

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Possibilities of Halting Oil and Gas Transit via Belarus

Author(s): Maciej Zaniewicz / Language(s): English

On 11 November, Alexander Lukashenka threatened to halt gas transit to the EU, and then on 17 November Belarus restricted oil shipments to Poland due to unplanned maintenance. These actions are intended to discourage the EU from imposing further sanctions on the Belarusian regime over the border crisis it has caused. Concessions by the EU would be seen as weakness and provoke Belarus to escalate the situation on the border. Threats to stop the supply of gas, and possibly oil, by Belarus to the EU are very unlikely to materialise.

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The Moldovan Gas Crisis: Causes and Consequences

Author(s): Jakub Pieńkowski,Maciej Zaniewicz / Language(s): English

In October, Russia created an energy crisis in Moldova to stop the reform of its gas sector and to undermine public trust in its pro-EU authorities. Moldova survived the crisis with the support of the EU and Ukraine. On 29 October, however, Moldova concluded a new five-year gas supply contract with Gazprom at the cost of postponing energy market reforms. Poland and Moldova’s EU allies can use this time to help immunise the local energy sector against further politically motivated Russian pressure.

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Ukraine’s Foreign Policy Strategy

Author(s): Maria Piechowska / Language(s): English

The president of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, approved in August this year the first Foreign Policy Strategy in the country’s history. According to the document, Ukraine’s main goal is membership in the EU and NATO and an end to the conflict with Russia. Like in the National Security Strategy, Ukraine included Poland in the second group of strategic partners. Cooperation with Poland is to be deepened and developed, not only bilaterally but also as part of multilateral formats in the region.

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Strategic Patience: French Interests and the Dialogue with Russia

Author(s): Łukasz Maślanka / Language(s): English

Concerns about Mali’s plans to invite the private military company Wagner Group for security operations, the forced migration hybrid attack by Belarus on the EU’s borders, and the aggravation of the situation in eastern Ukraine have renewed a discussion in France on relations with Russia. Despite warnings from some experts, President Emmanuel Macron believes that direct dialogue with Russian President Vladimir Putin is the only way to resolve the disputes. The French authorities are avoiding a more resolute policy towards Russia, fearing the reaction of the pro-Russia opposition, the weakening of France’s position towards the U.S., and the growing importance of NATO.

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Russian and Belarusian Disinformation and Propaganda in the Context of the Polish-Belarusian Border Crisis

Author(s): Filip Bryjka,Agnieszka Legucka / Language(s): English

Russia and Belarus are consistent in their narrative regarding the recent border crisis. They accuse EU and NATO members, mainly Poland and Lithuania, of failing to respect international law and lacking humanity. This is aimed at discrediting Euro-Atlantic structures and weakening Polish and Lithuanian influence on NATO and EU eastern policy. The Belarusian-Russian propaganda particularly invokes charges of hypocrisy and “double standards” on the part of the EU, which challenges the management and resolution of the border crisis.

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U.S. Nuclear Industry: Domestic and International Challenges

Author(s): Bartosz Bieliszczuk / Language(s): English

The U.S. nuclear industry for years has been stalled by competition from cheaper energy sources, the high costs of new investments, and other factors. At the same time, China and Russia have been actively supporting the foreign expansion of their nuclear companies. The U.S. is concerned with the political and economic leverage related to such investments. American leaders plan to restore the position of the U.S. nuclear industry and counter the influence of Russia and China, deemed rivals. These issues are delineated in the new nuclear strategy released in April 2020.

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