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UNIFYING THE KOSOVAR FACTIONS: The Way Forward (ICG Balkans Report N°58)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

The Kosovo peace talks, held at Rambouillet (France) under the auspices of the sixnation Contact Group, have been suspended until 15 March 1999 after a provisional agreement was reached on granting substantial autonomy for Kosovo. However, neither the Kosovo Albanians nor Serbian delegates have yet signed the draft peace accord, which calls for a NATO peacekeeping mission in Kosovo, and in which the "final status" issue has been deliberately fudged. The immense complexities of the Kosovo question were dramatically illustrated at Rambouillet by the last-minute refusal of the Albanian delegation to sign the accord, due to pressure from a hardline faction of the Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA) which refused to attend the talks.

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KOSOVO: THE ROAD TO PEACE. Critical Implementation Issues and a "Who's Who" of Key Players

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

While last spring saw conflict erupt in Kosovo's central Drenica region when Serbian security forces attacked and killed residents of the villages of Prekaz and Likoshan, this spring brings the possibility of peace. The proposed deployment of a 28,000-strong international force for Kosovo will dramatically and immediately halt the sporadic low-intensity battles between Serbian security forces and ethnic Albanian rebels that have displaced 300,000 people. This peace will allow refugees to return to their homes, and provide the day-to-day sense of security on the ground that will enable Kosovo's transition to self-government.

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MACEDONIA UPDATE: Challenges and Choices for the New Government (ICG Balkans Report N°60)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

This latest ICG report on Macedonia was written during March, as the new humanitarian catastrophe in neighbouring Kosovo unfolded and reached a new scale. Because of the recent events in Kosovo and the region at large, parts of this report have been overtaken by new developments. In particular, this concerns issues relating to the amount of aid reaching Macedonia, actions taken to alleviate the refugee situation in Macedonia and, most importantly, the Government’s ability to deal with the increasing number of refugees. Indeed, events in the last few days may well have reached a point beyond the Government’s capacity to respond. On the whole however, the analysis and conclusions of this report are still valid and still merit consideration despite the fact that local and international attention is now focusing on developments in Kosovo and their effect on neighbouring countries

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WAR IN THE BALKANS: Consequences of the Kosovo Conflict and Future Options for Kosovo and the Region (ICG Balkans Report N° 61)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

NATO’s strategy in the war with Yugoslavia over Kosovo isn’t working. As the Alliance’s bombing campaign enters its fourth week, it is Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic who is still winning the political game. Western governments have fallen into a humanitarian trap – concentrating on the hundreds of thousands of refugees expelled from Kosovo while failing to address the appalling human tragedy still going on inside the province. The present paper, prepared by International Crisis Group (ICG) analysts in Belgrade, Skopje, Tirana, Sarajevo, Washington DC, and Brussels, summarises the situation on the ground throughout the Balkans in the wake of recent events and examines the difficult choices facing Western leaders. It concludes with a comprehensive statement of policy recommendations designed to contribute both to a solution to the immediate crisis and to longerterm regional stability.

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REPUBLIKA SRPSKA – POPLASEN, BRCKO AND KOSOVO: Three Crises and Out? (ICG Balkans Report N° 62)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

The early part of 1999 has been turbulent for Republika Srpska. Political life has been unsettled by three separate and hardly-related crises: the decision of the High Representative to remove from office the RS President Nikola Poplasen; the decision of International Arbitrator Roberts Owen to give the municipality of Brcko neither to RS nor to the Federation but to both as a condominium; and the NATO air-strikes on the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (FRY). Either of the first two issues alone would have been ordinary daily business in the bad-tempered world of Bosnian politics. The two together could probably have been handled. But RS reactions to NATO action in FRY, coming on top of the excitement already created by previous events, have raised tensions to very high levels. Numerous peaceful demonstrations have turned violent, and international organisations – usually the target of the demonstrations – have withdrawn most of their personnel. There are still elements in RS ready and willing to use violence to promote political objectives, and the current climate offers them fertile soil. The beleaguered authorities in Belgrade have every reason to foster a diversion in Bosnia to give the international community another problem besides Kosovo to worry about. The present moment could be the most dangerous for the Dayton Peace Agreement since it was signed in 1995.

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MILOŠEVIĆ’S AIMS IN WAR AND DIPLOMACY (ICG Balkans Report N° 65)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

This report, prepared by ICG’s Belgrade-based analyst, looks back on an extraordinary two months of war and diplomacy in the Balkans. It argues that Milosevic, while not actively willing NATO bombing, was prepared for that eventuality3 and examines how he has used it to his advantage. The start of NATO’s air campaign on 24 March 1999 provided Milosevic with the cover to unleash his own ground war within Kosovo. Within hours of the first NATO missiles being fired, Yugoslav forces, including paramilitaries, embarked on the most vicious and extensive campaign of ethnic cleansing seen in Europe since World War II. An estimated 88 percent of the Kosovo population have been driven from their homes, the bulk forced to seek refuge outside of Yugoslavia. For the first three weeks of NATO air strikes, Milosevic sought to shore up his position at home, assuming sweeping war-time powers, refusing to countenance any concessions to NATO’s demands and riding a wave of nationalist resentment directed against the West. During this phase of the conflict, Milosevic strove to emphasise that the Serbs was not alone in the world, holding out the prospect of Serbia’s allies, in particular Russia, intervening militarily to protect the country from attack. Much play was made of remarks by Russian President Boris Yeltsin and members of the Russian legislature that NATO’s action risked triggering a new world war.

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MACEDONIA: TOWARDS DESTABILISATION? The Kosovo crisis takes its toll on Macedonia (ICG Report N° 67)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Since NATO bombing of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia began on 24 March 1999, Macedonia has been in an extremely vulnerable frontline position, facing an unmanageable influx of refugees from Kosovo, the prospect of economic collapse and volatile domestic interethnic relations. This report, prepared by ICG’s field analyst in Skopje, gives a candid assessment of the current situation in Macedonia and pinpoints the threats to the country’s stability that have arisen out of the Kosovo conflict.

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THE NEW KOSOVO PROTECTORATE (ICG Balkans Report N°69)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

The ICG Balkans Report N°66, “Kosovo: Let’s Learn from Bosnia”, of 17 May 1999 looked at how experience in Bosnia could be useful in Kosovo, and also at the extent to which the Rambouillet agreement of 23 February 1999 resembled the Dayton agreement of 21 November 1995. Now, following the campaign of NATO air strikes against Yugoslavia, a new framework of military and civilian involvement in Kosovo has been established by means of UN Security Council Resolution 1244 of 10 June 1999. This mechanism ensures the legality of the operation and contents the Russians and Chinese. It has also left the UN in charge of civilian implementation.

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REPUBLIKA SRPSKA IN THE POST-KOSOVO ERA: Collateral Damage and Transformation (ICG Report N° 71)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Repercussions from Kosovo continue to shake Republika Srpska (RS), and may prove a catalyst for further transformation and reform. The war’s collateral damage included severance of trade ties with the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (FRY); a dramatic rise in unemployment; a sharp drop in production and state revenues; and a tide of Serbian refugees from FRY into RS. Despite this the security situation, which looked dangerous at the beginning of April, did not deteriorate out of control, and the government in Banja Luka was able to stabilise its position and survive. The government itself deserves credit for keeping its head throughout the crisis. The international community, especially OHR and the US government, did good work behind the scenes keeping the ruling Sloga coalition together. And a generally well-judged and lowkey response by SFOR managed to strike a balance between preserving security and not provoking incidents by its own actions. As Republika Srpska enters the post-Kosovo era it faces a crossroads, both economically and politically. RS now can move forward towards an integrated European future as part of BiH. Or it can move backwards, towards economic, social and political misery.

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IS DAYTON FAILING? Bosnia Four Years After The Peace Agreement (ICG Balkans Report N°80)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

In anticipation of the fourth anniversary on 21 November 1999 of the signing of the Dayton Peace Accords, this report presents a detailed analysis of the agreement and the future of the Bosnian peace process. The report assesses efforts to implement the agreement annex by annex, identifying obstacles to continued progress and setting out key choices facing international policymakers. A traditional peace treaty consists of a cease-fire and arms reduction and boundary demarcation agreements. Dayton went far beyond these goals to create a state, comprised of two multi-ethnic entities. Dayton's aim was to not only stop the fighting, but to reverse ethnic cleansing and provide a blueprint for a new, unified country.

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ALL QUIET ON THE SERBIAN FRONT? (ICG Balkans Report N° 81)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

The conclusion of this report, which begins with a journey through recent history, is that an effective strategy vis-à-vis Milosevic must be predicated on a much better understanding of how the dictator plays politics. In the absence of international resolve to liquidate his tenure and his leadership, the first and last recommendation is linked to the observation that the international community IC become more adept at deciphering the dictator’s political chess game. From there, the IC must have a clearer picture of how it wants to cope with the dictatorship. If the aim is merely to unseat him, and to enhance the chances of the reformist opposition, then concrete steps must be taken to avoid open and public linkages with the opposition that will yield only propaganda dividends for the dictatorship.

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ALBANIANS in SERBIAN PRISONS. Ksosovo’s unfinished Business. (ICG Balkans Report N° 85)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

While the international community does not itself have the capacity to free these prisoners, it must find ways to exert maximum pressure on Milošević to order their release. Thousands of Albanian lives are at stake: reports from recently released prisoners and from family members make clear that the prisoners' conditions in the Serbian facilities are appalling, their health has been severely compromised, they are routinely subjected to mistreatment and torture, and their trials are travesties. In addition, many prisoners’ families have been effectively ransomed by Serbian lawyers, who have promised to secure the release of prisoners for sums ranging from 10,000 to 50,000 DM. The emotional and material strain on prisoners' families contributes to Kosovo's continuing unrest and to the immense frustration Kosovars feel toward the international agencies which, in part out of a dearth of options to pursue, have not made a top priority of locating the prisoners or advocating on their behalf. // In this paper ICG attempts to clarify the somewhat complex situation with regard to the Albanian prisoners, to make available first-hand information about Serbian prison conditions gathered in interviews with ex-prisoners and prisoners' family members, to elucidate the pertinent legal issues, and to propose a series of measures that governments and non-government organisations might take toward identifying the prisoners and securing their release.

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WHAT HAPPENED TO THE KLA / UCK? (ICG Balkans Report N° 88)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

The end of the war over Kosovo brought the transformation of the guerrilla army that started it. The Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA – or UÇK in the Albanian acronym) has been formally demilitarised, but in various manifestations it remains a powerful and active element in almost every area of Kosovo life. Some welcome its continued influence; others fear it; many are concerned about it. This report focuses on the period since mid-1999, after the NATO-led Kosovo Force (KFOR) was deployed and the United Nations Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK) was installed. It traces the nature and extent of the influence the KLA still wields; evaluates that influence and the way the international community, through UNMIK and KFOR, has dealt with it; and suggests how it might be dealt with in future.

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SERBIA'S GRAIN TRADE: Milosevic's hidden Cash Crop (ICG Balkans Report N° 93)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

In recent months the international community has taken a hard look at its use of sanctions3 against pariah states with a mind toward toughening restrictions on the regimes in question while softening their impact on the respective civilian populations, be they Iraqi, Libyan, or Serbian. In early April the European Union refined and more sharply focused its own sanctions program against the Belgrade regime, in an effort to clarify to the Serbian people that Milosevic, not the population itself, is the intended target of the international community’s punishing strategy, which will remain in place until he is out of power. The inclusion of the Serbian grain trade in this more refined application of sanctions can significantly enhance the program’s effectiveness in constricting the financial resources available to Milosevic. ICG's recommendations are directed at further strengthening this potentially powerful tool.

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SERBIA'S EMBATTLED OPPOSITION (ICG Balkans Report, N° 94)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

The recent crackdown by the Belgrade regime on Serbia's independent media and political activists suggests that Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic is more vulnerable than it would appear. Since the Kosovo war ended, Milosevic has proven unable to expand his support base and must struggle with diminishing resources to keep restive constituencies intact. Despite its recognised weakness, the Serbian opposition is capable under certain conditions of removing Milosevic from power and offering better governance. The message of numerous public opinion polls over the past eight months is that there is an anti-Milosevic majority in Serbia, but that the opposition must work together in coalitions to exploit it.

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MOVING MACEDONIA TOWARD SELF-SUFFICIENCY: A new Security Approach for NATO and the EU (ICG Balkans Report N°135)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Whether through NATO or the EU, the international community needs to continue to help Macedonia during the transition period. NATO should, therefore, remain for six months or until such time as the EU is ready to assume the security functions, whichever period is shorter. This would give NATO a set departure date while ensuring a proper hand-over. As NATO draws down and the EU prepares to take over, the latter should also focus on complementary tasks to demonstrate its increased commitment to Macedonia. In particular, the EU and NATO should act now in tandem to address the gap in border control – probably the most vital remaining security issue – by deploying and protecting a sizeable EUMM contingent along the vulnerable Kosovo, Serbia and Albania borders.

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ARMING SADDAM: The Yugoslav Connection (ICG Balkans Report N°136)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

The democratic government elected in Belgrade in 2000 did not end the extensive busting of arms sanctions engaged in for many years by its predecessor, the Milosevic dictatorship. The NATO (SFOR) troops who raided an aircraft factory in Bosnia’s Republika Srpska on 12 October 2002 found documents that have begun to strip the veils of secrecy from this significant scandal. From ICG’s own investigations, as well as from those initial revelations and stories that have appeared subsequently in the Serbian press, it appears that arms deals of considerable monetary value continued with Iraq and Liberia despite the change of administrations. The disclosures open a window on the real power structures inside Yugoslav politics. That the special relationship with Iraq (and with Liberia) continued indicates that civilian control over the military is still absent, that connections between criminal, military and political elements are extensive, and that the two strongmen of the post-Milosevic era, Kostunica and Djindjic, have thus far been impotent or unprepared to assert civilian control over the military or remove Milosevic cronies from top positions.

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Политически брифинг № 107 на CSD: БИТОВА ПРЕСТЪПНОСТ И ДОВЕРИЕ В ПОЛИЦИЯТА

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): Bulgarian

The low trust of Bulgarian citizens in police authorities has a direct impact on the level of reporting of criminal incidents by victims of crime. The low levels of crime reporting create a systemic problem, as they impede effective investigation and the administration of justice, which poses the risk of increase in conventional crime. // The analysis examines the main factors behind these trends, in particular the flaws in crime registration by the police, and recommends measures for promoting civic activism and trust in police authorities.

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CSD Policy Brief №. 135: Making Sanctions Work in the European Energy Sector.

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

The energy crisis in Europe, exacerbated by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, has demonstrated the need for the EU to develop and implement a coherent policy vision for the di­versification of energy supply and the decarbonisation of its economy, in line with the changing economic security risks and priorities. Since the Russian invasion, the EU has adopted 10 rounds of sanctions including a ban on the import of coal, crude oil, and oil derivatives with the aim of undermining the capability of the Kremlin’s oligarchic networks to fuel its war machine in Ukraine and beyond. However, the current sanctions do not seem to achieve the longer-term objective of strategic decou­pling from Russia. This policy brief exposes the key loopholes that allow Russia to continue exporting energy, including oil, natural gas, coal, and nuclear fuel. The analysis reveals why and how the EU should strengthen sanctions enforcement and consider expanding the scope of sanctions. Decoupling from Russia would not be possible without also targeting the state capture networks that have enabled strategic partnerships between Russian and European energy companies.

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Политически брифинг № 137 на CSD: ЗАВИСИМОСТТА НА БЪЛГАРИЯ ОТ РУСКИ ПЕТРОЛ: ОТВЪД ДЕРОГАЦИЯТА

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): Bulgarian

The Bulgarian government should lift the derogation in EU Regulation (EU) № 833/2014, which allows Bulgaria to continue importing Russian crude oil until the end of 2024. Continuing the Russian monopoly power on the Bulgarian fuels market is by far the most critical risk to Bulgaria’s economic security. The Neftohim Burgas refinery, ultimately controlled by the Russian Lukoil, can operate efficiently without processing any Russian oil due to the ample availability of alternative crude oil grades within the Black Sea region, in addition to other sources in the Middle East and West Africa. This policy brief reviews possible scenarios for lifting the derogation. The worst-case scenario of a complete shutdown of the Neftohim refinery shows that any supply shock on the Bulgarian fuels market can be prevented with proper management of current reserves and the import infrastructure, which is now under Russian monopolistic control. The shutdown of the refinery can and must be avoided. The government should request a specific timeline and investment commitments from Lukoil for implementing the EU oil embargo, with full readiness at least 12 months before the current end date of the derogation, verified by an external audit from the Agency for State Financial Inspection. №n-compliance from Lukoil should trigger more robust measures such as putting Lukoil’s assets under state control.

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