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The article presents the results of research related to scenario planning for security purposes. The study of analytical documents was assumed more reliable than strategy contents, guided by too many objectives other than an accurate forecast. Taking this criterion into account, The Global Trends. Paradox of Progress project was selected for analysis. The conducted research aimed to answer the following questions: What were the sources of theoretical (concepts and models) and methodological (empirical schools and methods) references in the analysed project? What are the conclusions for researchers on strategic studies and strategy? The very title of the study and the final forecast date of 2035 indicated that it was based on the scenario planning school. The consequence of the chosen theoretical concept was the applied methodology of scenario analysis. Not only did the article evaluate the report but also determined the canons of contemporary scenario planning, which is built by a triad composed of narrative scenarios, paradoxes, and strategic traps. The presentation of the essence of such strategic thinking was intended to encourage the discussions within the strategic studies and promote the concept of research that considers scientific foundations rather than political wishes and pressure.
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The Arctic has been affected by the climate change stimulated institutionalisation of cooperation among ‘Arctic nations’, and the Arctic Council has been influential toward a peaceful future. The purpose of the paper is to analyse the Council as a regional intergovernmental organisation facilitating nonviolent cooperation and collaborative solutions toward the Arctic, preserving its ecosystems and natural environment. The research questions are how the Council deals multidimensionally with the Arctic and what is conflict potential due to security developments. The thesis is that the Council is effectively performing its missions as a cooperation forum despite differing agendas among members and observes. One of the reasons is that the military aspect is not included in the agenda. The paper is based on qualitative research founded on academic papers and official documents, including member states and observer nations’ perspectives and positions toward the region and Council. The assumption is that the Council must distinguish between individual national and shared goals to preserve peaceful cooperation. The teamwork is essential but is increasingly complicating as of differing nations’ agendas. The paper is contributing to systematise the perception of the Council and the challenges it is facing.
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The article presents the conditions of the policy towards the minority inhabiting the area of Gdansk Pomerania in the years 1900-1939. The focus was on determining the reasons for conducting a different policy by the German Empire and the Polish state established after the end of World War I towards Pomeranian indigenous people. It was shown that the main factors determining the manner of conducting this policy were the characteristics of individual national groups, the way the countries of origin influenced, and the reaction of this population to the actions of administrative authorities, which were considered a violation of their sense of security.
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The main thesis of this essay is the assertion of the concurrence of the Polish transformation after 1989 with the world switch towards the liberal international order at that time. Poland was among initiators of these changes and hugely benefited from them. It applied to the establishment of the regime of the rule of law and the open market economy. The success of the Polish transformation and the rapid economic growth would have not been possible or they would have been limited without this external support.The main although not the only theoretical explanation framework to these processes is the liberal school of thought. Democratic regress in Poland (since end of 2015) and a turn to authoritarianism coincide with backsliding of the international liberal order. Unfavourable internal changes incapacitate Poland’s foreign policy as well as its international standing.
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At the changing geopolitical landscape with the Covid-19 pandemic scenario, the China-India tussle and scale of regional and global exposition has begun to display with certain consequences, which seems to shake the existing regional balance of power. A mounting political and military confrontation between these two powers as experts suggested could create a hurdle on regional-global stability and can strike on the path of globalization. With historical and existing context analysis, this paper explores that putting genuine differences aside, China and India being responsible stakeholders of the global community, can cooperate and contribute to regional and global peace and prosperity. This paper is based on qualitative research and explorative form in a pattern. This paper concludes that to reduce protracted political and border-related tensions, continuous institutional dialogue, regular communication, and formal-informal exchanges could be effective tools for a peaceful resolution. At this juncture, the competition and cooperation approach could be useful for fostering China-India bilateral relations, and this situation will help to address common challenges of the global community, restructure the global order, and re-adjust regional and global scenarios crippled by the Covid-19 pandemic.
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The complications of the Syrian crisis that has extended over six years are overseen on three distinct levels which are national, topographical, and global. A closer look at the situation in Syria in 2010/2011 will help explain why the regime has survived, the complexities of the situation in Syria, and what makes the search for a stable political settlement so difficult. The purpose of the present study is to highlight the nature of US engagement in the Syrian crisis which involves maintaining the US military presence for regional stability, ensuring the enduring defeat of ISIS, countering the future expansion of the Iranian influence and political settlement to the conflict, containing the Assad’s regime in the interim. By outlining various threats, issues, assessing the Syrian conflict and its key actors, this paper seeks to explain the US response to the Syrian crisis on basis of thematic analysis. In conclusion, the United States' foreign policy has continued in a region vital to its national security interests due to available oil, its impetus to protect Israel, to support security by retaining military bases, to preserve the position of the protectorate of client states, and friendly regimes, and to resist Islamic movements and terrorism.
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This paper explores Russia’s response to Covid-19, with a focus on its implications for political freedoms and human rights across the country. It investigates the relationship between the pandemic and reinforcing authoritarianism in Russia. This paper is an in-depth case analysis that uses policy analysis and process tracing to examine Russia’s response to Covid-19 and its effects on Russian domestic politics. The study concludes that the Russian authorities have considerably abused Covid-19-related restrictive measures, not least through curtailing the freedom of assembly and expression. In doing so the Russian authorities have conveniently shielded themselves from mass protests amid constitutional amendments and upcoming legislative elections. Nevertheless, while the authoritarian practices that the Kremlin resorted to during the pandemic are not much different from those of other authoritarian regimes, they proved insufficient in curbing anti-regime dissent. This study inquires into the political repercussions of crisis management in authoritarian regimes and concludes that their authoritarian reactions lead to further crackdowns on civil liberties and political freedoms.
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Egypt and Turkey makeup about half of the whole population of the Middle East and are the two leading nations in the eastern Mediterranean, including Iran as a whole. Both countries are now recognized as the two most tremendous modern military forces in the Middle East. Besides, Cairo and Ankara are major Muslim centers: the Al-Azhar Mosque in Egypt is the largest Islamic University in the world and a significant feature of Egyptian soft power; the historical association between Turkey and the last Islamic Caliphate is viewed in the region with great nostalgia. Given these similarities, a deep rivalry between the two countries exists around the world, while Ankara and Cairo have increasingly prevented overt aggression or conflicts. After the Arab Spring, tensions have intensified and, in effect, impacts Libya, Sudan, and the Eastern Mediterranean region. Along with the increased risk of an overt war between the two nations, the rivalry between Turkey and Egypt also challenges the delicate security of the Middle East. It indicates that it needs an international mediator to answer this thorny problem.
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Since the beginning of the 2000s, China has embarked on an unprecedented path of economic development, as evidence of which is the largest economic project of the XXI century initiated by the People's Republic of China. The global Belt and Road Initiative announced by the first person of the country, Xi Jinping, is a shortened name of the ‘Silk Road Economic Belt’ and ‘XXI Century Maritime Silk Road’. It covers the Asia-Pacific, Europe, Central Asia, Southeast Asia, West Asia, and Africa and involves more than a hundred countries, international organizations, and leading economic actors. The main participants in the project are China, Mongolia, Russia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Poland, Germany, the Netherlands, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Iran, and India. The article reviews the role of the Chinese project in a global context. The paper focuses on the role and purpose of Georgia in the Belt and Road Initiative. This study will try to reveal the results for the benefit of Georgia, which is one of the participating countries, and the role of China through research to be made from documents and academic studies on the subject. Georgia tries to conduct its relations with China, as a partner in the project, with a policy of balance without disturbing its relations with the West.
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Terrorism has emerged as one of the major challenges for the Eurasian regional peace, security, and cooperation. Keeping these challenges in perspective, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) was established to eliminate the menace of terrorism, fundamentalism, and secessionism. Against this background, the main objectives of this paper are to examine how terrorism emerged as a major determining factor in the Indo-Pak relations and how the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), was failed to play its effective role in the Indo-Pak conflict given the Pulwama terror attack. For this research, descriptive and analytical methods were used and the data was collected from secondary sources. The major findings of this article are that terrorism has emerged as one of the major determinants of Indo-Pak relations and the same has become a major challenge for the SCO to resolve the issue. Against the background of terror attacks, it was anticipated that the SCO would play a crucial role to pacify the situation. However, the role played by the SCO in this situation proved marked as a Whack-a-Mole.
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The article examines of evolution of Chinese security policy in the light of the white papers on defense. It hypothesized that the goal of the Chinese strategy is to ensure the security of the state, and not to maximize its power. The theory of neoclassical realism was adopted as the theoretical basis for the analysis. The distribution of power in the international system was adopted as the independent variable in the study, and the Chinese security policy as the dependent variable. China's Grand Strategy was recognized as an intervening variable. The study used elements of the qualitative method in line with the recommendations of the neoclassical realism program, emphasizing causal relationships in the process of evolution of China's strategy being followed. As a result of the research, the following conclusions were drawn: 1) China perceives security holistically; that is, it considers both internal and external security. A particularly important aspect is also security at the seas and in new domains: space, cyber and electromagnetic space; 2) The security threats to China are primarily of an internal nature, and the most important threat is the possible declaration of independence by Taiwan. 3) The armed forces are the most important means of countering potential threats. The Chinese strategy assumes the future conflict as a people's war, consisting of the total mobilization of the nation's and state's resources. The army’s main task is to win information wars; 4) The most important supporting objective in China's security strategy is to protect China's "overseas interests"; 5) The security strategy is evolving, and its scope grows with the growth of China's global interests. The Chinese plan goes far beyond the primary goal of ensuring the security of the state. It is therefore also expansive.
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The article aims to present the specificity of counterinsurgency operations carried out by specialized units of the British Army in Northern Ireland. It describes the principles of operations of the first specialized unit conducting anti-guerilla operations in Belfast and Londonderry. The article also shows the failure of the MRF activities which contributed to the decommissioning of the unit. Additionally, the study answers the question did Brigadier F. Kitson's counter-insurrection strategy, developed during the operations in Kenya, proven successful in Northern Ireland? What kind of elements were crucial for the failure of COIN activities in the initial period of ‘troubles’?
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This study examines the normative hypothesis explaining the nexus between terrorism and Abrahamic religious tradition, particularly the Boko Haram Islamic fundamentalist sect in North-Eastern Nigeria. It is methodologically structured in quantitative and qualitative methods, where data and information are retrieved from primary and secondary sources. These were presented in a tabular form and analyzed descriptively within the context of the subject matter under investigation. The findings reveal that, beyond the classical arguments usually provided by the Abrahamic religious tradition school, the real reason behind global terrorism is for some overzealous religious bigots to establish a caliphate that will enable them to influence the international system. Based on these findings, the study concluded that the war against global terrorism would be a mirage unless national governments and international organizations fully address these fundamental issues.
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The article examines China’s geo-economic interest in Africa. China intends to exercise its leverage over both coastal frontiers for trade and defense and its hinterland for rich mineral, metal, and fossil deposits. Furthermore, the debt trap seems to be one of the methods through which China intended to bargain with Africa to bag as much advantage as it could gain. The question that emerges from this critical engagement with China-Africa relations is to look into how the reality of Africa’s narrative of development is projected both from outside and within and the contradiction embodied in that projection. China used the narrative of development to set its feet on African soil. This paper discusses China’s penetration into Africa by offering interest-free loans and its gradual emergence as a neocolonial power through expanding its network. The method used in the study to establish China’s monopoly and interfering streak in African affairs through BRI is the analysis of available data based on which the objectives and the conclusions are drawn.
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The Balkans is considered a vital area in international relations. It has always attracted and is still attracting the interest of global and regional powers and factors on the international stage, including Turkey. Besides the political, economic, and defense aspects, the soft power of Turkish multidimensional diplomacy represents one of the most important segments of the relations between Turkey and the Balkan countries. Turkish government institutions like the Diyanet (Presidency of Religious Affairs), Yunus Emre, Presidency for Turks Abroad and Related Communities (YTB), TIKA, Turkish State Media, Maarif education institutions, and various non-governmental organizations represent some of the most vital segments of the cultural, religious and educational expansion of the Turkish state in the Balkan countries. This paper is mainly based on the following research methods: historical, descriptive, and in-depth analysis. This study aims to answer the main question of this research - Do the above-mentioned soft power policy tools play a vital role in the further development of Turkey-Balkan countries relations? This paper concludes that the Turkish soft power policy in the Balkans faces a series of challenges that affect its expansion's functionality and success.
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Using four emerging powers as a case study (China, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey), this paper examined how the current redistribution of power in the contemporary world has affected the Western Balkan region. The objective was to shed light on the ability of the emerging powers to make use of soft power to increase their influence. This paper demonstrated that the growing presence in the Western Balkan region of these emerging powers occurred to the detriment of traditional actors in the region, in particular to the European Union and the United States. While Russia favored political instability in the region to increase its grip, China proposed a new economic project to reach the European market and expand its own norms. As far as Saudi Arabia and Turkey were concerned, both states privileged the use of religious soft power in Muslim-majority countries. The paper concluded that a rapid European response is required today if the EU wants to remain the most influential actor in the Western Balkans.
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This paper explores the challenges that Ukraine faces during the Russian invasion, focusing on the political and economic implications of the war. Apart from the humanitarian crisis, the war has produced political, economic, and social tribulations, which must be addressed. The more stubborn the Ukrainian resistance becomes, the more likely Russia will implement more aggressive tactics. Ukraine has already acknowledged its inability to join the transatlantic alliance, and recent peace talks with Russia have become more realistic and plausible for its future. Early planning of post-war recovery gained significance against this backdrop, as it proved to be successful when led by ‘indigenous drivers’. While this approach placed local actors, institutions, and resources at its center, it also recognized the crucial role of external aid. This paper argues that the war is a ‘resilience test’ for European solidarity and the EU’s crisis management competency. This paper inquires into the challenges of Ukraine’s post-war recovery and concludes that national consolidation, along with Western solidarity, is critical to addressing the ‘Russian problem’ of Ukraine.
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The article presents the methods of influencing particular groups of the revolutionary “Supraciu” movement in Belarus. The subject of the research is to verify the goals of the "Supraciu" movement as an opposition to the Belarusian regime and to define its status in the structure of national liberation organizations. The main research method is the analysis of materials from various media, including social media. The study aims to evaluate the effectiveness of the activities of these groups. The adopted thesis is that the "Supraciu" movement is a national liberation movement that uses terror to weaken the dictatorial regime of Alexander Lukashenka. Following this assumption, the methods and effectiveness of group members of the "Supraciu" movement were presented, and the prospects for the development of this movement in Belarus were assessed.
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