Lekcja myślenia strategicznego: Global Trends. Paradox of Progress
Strategic Thinking Lesson: Global Trends. Paradox of Progress

Summary/Abstract: The article presents the results of research related to scenario planning for security purposes. The study of analytical documents was assumed more reliable than strategy contents, guided by too many objectives other than an accurate forecast. Taking this criterion into account, The Global Trends. Paradox of Progress project was selected for analysis. The conducted research aimed to answer the following questions: What were the sources of theoretical (concepts and models) and methodological (empirical schools and methods) references in the analysed project? What are the conclusions for researchers on strategic studies and strategy? The very title of the study and the final forecast date of 2035 indicated that it was based on the scenario planning school. The consequence of the chosen theoretical concept was the applied methodology of scenario analysis. Not only did the article evaluate the report but also determined the canons of contemporary scenario planning, which is built by a triad composed of narrative scenarios, paradoxes, and strategic traps. The presentation of the essence of such strategic thinking was intended to encourage the discussions within the strategic studies and promote the concept of research that considers scientific foundations rather than political wishes and pressure.

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