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The Risky Game of EMU Withdrawal

Author(s): Karolina Borońska-Hryniewiecka / Language(s): English

With the Greek parliamentary elections approaching, the possibility the country may leave the eurozone is gaining momentum. An analysis of the various legal, political and economic implications of EMU withdrawal indicates that the best option for the EU would be to solve the Greek debt crisis as it stands, with the second option being a two-tier euro arrangement for countries undergoing financial restructuring.

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The New Government in Finland will Grant Stable Support to Ukraine

Author(s): Veronika Jóźwiak / Language(s): English

In the new right-wing coalition government formed on 20 June, the centre-right, economically liberal National Coalition Party (Kokoomus) of Prime Minister Petteri Orpo plays a leading role. He succeeded Sanna Marin of the Social Democratic Party (SDP), who headed the centre-left cabinet. The entry of the nationalist Finns Party (PS) into the government will not reduce Finland’s commitment to help Ukraine. Furthermore, the new government will increase its activity in NATO. This aligns with Poland’s security policy goals, also in the Baltic Sea region.

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EU Advances Engagement with Latin America and the Caribbean

Author(s): Bartłomiej Znojek / Language(s): English

In its strategy towards Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), announced on 7 June, the European Union mainly proposes cooperation in defending the rules-based international order, enhancing economic ties, and promoting sustainable social development. Itis part of the EU’s drive to renew its strategic partnership with LAC to compete more effectively with China’s growing regional presence, among other reasons. The Union is therefore intensifying contacts at the highest level and engagement through the Global Gateway infrastructure investment programme.

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Slovakia in Emergency Mode - Assessing the Performance of the First Technical Government

Author(s): Łukasz Ogrodnik / Language(s): English

Despite failing to win a vote of confidence in mid-June, Ludovit Ódor’s technical government will run the state until early general elections in September. Its main task is to stabilise the political situation after the previous dismissal of Eduard Heger’s government, whose policy it is continuing. Despite friendly gestures and interests converging with Poland, including in the field of Eastern and energy policy, cooperation will be limited due to the legal restrictions of the government, which has a transitional character.

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China Tempting EU Members and the Effect on Transatlantic Relations

Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English

China seeks to maintain differences within the EU, particularly regarding transatlantic cooperation towards China. Some EU countries and institutions do not perceive China as a threat and look cautiously at the reduction of economic ties with it. Others regard transatlantic cooperation, including vis-à-vis China, as an important element in strengthening European security. These differing approaches limit the ability of the EU and the U.S. to interact in areas related both to Sino-Russian cooperation and China’s escalation in the Indo-Pacific.

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Syria’s Assad Regime Using Drug Smuggling as a Political Tool

Author(s): Sara Nowacka / Language(s): English

The need to combat drug smuggling from Syria to other Arab countries has contributed to their leaders’ decision to normalise relations with Bashar al-Assad in order to convince him to curb the practice. The dismantling of the Assad-run captagon production and smuggling network is also becoming a priority of Western countries’ Middle East policy due to the increasing flow of the drug into Europe as well.

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Belarus Facing Growing Domestic Problems

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English

The Belarusian authorities continue to suffer the consequences of rigging the 2020 presidential elections and their support for Russian aggression against Ukraine, which have resulted in a significant reduction in political and trade contacts with Western countries. To maintain internal stability, the regime is stepping up repression and attempting to militarise society by portraying external threats. Although the risk of regime collapse is not high, the EU should be prepared to increase its support for the democratisation of Belarus.

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The EU’s Global Gateway Strategy: Opportunities and Challenges

Author(s): Elżbieta Kaca / Language(s): English

The Global Gateway (GG) strategy aims to increase the EU’s infrastructure connections on a global scale. The strategy might lead to improving the Union’s image, for example, in its immediate vicinity, and increasing the participation of Member State entities in the implementation of EU projects. The challenge is how to effectively coordinate the strategy amongst EU institutions and get private sector cooperation. For Poland, it will be important to accelerate investments in the Eastern Partnership (EaP) region and to diversify transport corridors from the EU to China.

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Foreign Policy in the Presidential Campaign in South Korea

Author(s): Oskar Pietrewicz / Language(s): English

The presidential election in South Korea will be held on 9 March. The main candidates are representatives of the largest political parties: Lee Jae-myung of the ruling liberal Democratic Party and Yoon Suk-yeol of the opposition conservative People Power Party. A Lee victory would largely mean the continuation of the current government’s foreign policy - striving for dialogue with North Korea, maintaining a strong alliance with the U.S., and stable relations with China. If Yoon wins, it would increase the likelihood of stronger support of South Korea for the U.S. in its rivalry with China and increased tensions in relations with North Korea. Both candidates condemn Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, but draw different conclusions from the war.

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War and Elections: French Presidential Candidates on the Russian Invasion

Author(s): Łukasz Maślanka / Language(s): English

Russia’s attack on Ukraine dominated the French debate in the last month of the presidential campaign and sparked widespread condemnation. Candidates who had previously declared pro-Kremlin views partially modified their rhetoric, while President Emmanuel Macron, who maintains an advantage in the polls, tried to emphasise the lack of a credible alternative to himself. A prolonged war or if fighting spreads to other countries may induce the French to focus even more deeply on security issues. Cessation of the hostilities will stimulate a discussion on the legitimacy of the scale of the adopted sanctions and their consequences for France.

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Russia’s Wartime Censorship and Propaganda

Author(s): Agnieszka Legucka / Language(s): English

In connection with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Russian authorities have introduced wartime censorship, forbidding the publication of content that does not conform to the official message of the Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation. This massive and unprecedented propaganda is leading to an increase in support for Vladimir Putin, and Russians protesting against the war are being brutally repressed and persecuted. The consequence is the strengthening of the totalitarian character of the Russian state and the emigration of Russians who do not support the war. The most significant element of the Russian war propaganda is that of “denazification”, a claim aimed also at Poland.

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The reluctant co-aggressor. Minsk’s complicity in the war against Ukraine

Author(s): Piotr Żochowski,Kamil Kłysiński,Andrzej Wilk / Language(s): English

Since the beginning of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, the Republic of Belarus (RB) has made its territory and its military, transport and logistical infrastructure available to the Russian army. However, the Belarusian army is not taking part in the hostilities. Alyaksandr Lukashenka’s regime is reluctant to become directly involved in the war, which results from anti-war sentiment among the country’s elite and the majority of the population, and out off ear of the domestic destabilisation which would most likely occur should the Belarusian army enter Ukraine. Therefore, Lukashenka is making attempts to avoid such a scenario: he regularly denies rumours that the Kremlin is putting pressure on him, and has stressed that the main threats to Belarus include alleged acts of provocation and aggressive behaviour from NATO. At present, there are no indications that the Kremlin intends to send Belarusian troops to take part in the war; it seems satisfied with the current format of cooperation between the two countries. Russia’s main task for Belarus, as part of the Regional Group of Forces, is to provide cover for its own forces, while the Belarusian army itself is unprepared to launch offensive actions. The most likely short-term scenario involves Minsk continuing to provide multifaceted support to the Russian army without directly dispatching its own troops to Ukraine.

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Putin’s neo-totalitarian project: the current political situation in Russia

Author(s): Maria Domańska / Language(s): English

As the invasion of Ukraine began, the totalitarian ambitions of the Putin regime were revealed on a larger scale than ever before. These designs have been reflected in increased repression, the unprecedented encroachment of the state into the private lives of citizens, the growing ideologisation of the public discourse, and top-down efforts to mobilise public support for the war. The regime is dismantling the previous semblance of pluralism that had existed within the ruling elite. There is no sign of a coming split within the political establishment and business circles, while society is demonstrating great adaptability to the realities of armed conflict. Even forced deployments of citizens to the frontline have not met with any significant resistance. This situation is likely to continue unless Russia suffers a crushing military defeat in Ukraine. It should be assumed that Vladimir Putin will run in the presidential election scheduled for March 2024 and build his legitimacy on the myth of ‘defensive war’ against the West.

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Safe skies? Air defence on NATO’s northern, eastern and south-eastern flank

Author(s): Jacek Tarociński,Justyna Gotkowska / Language(s): English

The Russian aggression against Ukraine has highlighted the crucial role of air and missile defence in modern full-scale conflicts. A multi-layered, adequately saturated and integrated system is necessary to provide cover for troops, and also to protect the critical infrastructure and major population centres of the countries on NATO’s northern, eastern and south-eastern flank. These countries, along with Sweden and Finland, have varying levels of air defence protection, but none of them are currently sufficient in themselves, and the ongoing efforts to build multi-layered air defences leave much to be desired. Only some of these countries are in the advanced process of modernising and building up their capabilities. There are also some whose systems provide only rudimentary protection, and which have no plans to develop them adequately or are unable to do so for financial reasons. This poses a problem more broadly for the Alliance as a whole, as the critical infrastructure in these countries – which will be used for military purposes in case of a NATO operation – is insufficiently protected.

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The EU's Options to Limit Russia's Arms Exports

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English

In response to Russia's aggression in Ukraine, the European Union may consider imposing an embargo on Russian arms exports to its partners in the form of secondary sanctions. The aim would be to discourage third countries from purchasing weapons from Russia and to reduce the profits of the Russian defence industry. This could translate into lower revenues for the Russian budget and limiting its influence in the world. The EU should coordinate actions with the U.S. and its allies, including adopting a programme of support in the replacement of Russian weapons by states that are its traditional recipients.

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The Impact of the War in Ukraine on the Food Security of Developing Countries

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English

The Russian aggression against Ukraine is yet another economic challenge for developing countries after the COVID-19 pandemic and threatens their food security. The expected lower production and limits on export of grains from Ukraine and Russia, as well asrising costs of energy resources and fertilisers have led to an increase in global food prices. To counter this crisis, the EU and the U.S. may seek to increase the worldwide supply of cereals, including by activating strategic reserves, refraining from export restrictions, strengthening financing for organisations preventing hunger, and facilitating trade in fertilisers.

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Involvement of EU Agencies in Helping Countries That Are Receiving Refugees from Ukraine

Author(s): Jolanta Szymańska / Language(s): English

EU support for Member States most affected by the war in Ukraine includes funding for reception measures and ensuring refugees have access to protection throughout the Community, as well as coordination and operational assistance from EU agencies. The offer of agency resources extends to humanitarian aid, border management, and capacity-building of the Member States. Exploring the full potential of the EU agencies will require overcoming their internal problems and the will of the Member States to involve them in such cooperation,

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Russia’s War with Ukraine will Force the Acceleration of Food Production Reforms in Africa

Author(s): Jędrzej Czerep / Language(s): English

Russia’s war against Ukraine limited the availability of wheat and other food products and fertilisers from both countries in Africa. In the short term, the crisis pushed several countries to ban food exports and seek alternative sources of supply. In the long run, it will make increasing production for domestic needs the highest priority on the African continent. The Nigerian solutions can be a good example in this regard.

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Impact of the War in Ukraine on the Debate on the Future of Agriculture in the EU

Author(s): Melchior Szczepanik / Language(s): English

The war in Ukraine has sharpened the debate about the future of agriculture in the EU. Big agricultural producers are advocating a revision of targets and the timetable of the green transition. Environmentalist organisations urge a speed up, as they emphasise the downsides of agriculture’s dependence on imported fertilisers, fuel, and feed. In the face of political and economic instability, the majority of Member States are reducing their ambitions for environment-friendly reforms of the agricultural sector.

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Ukrainian Society in the Face of War

Author(s): Maria Piechowska / Language(s): English

Social mobilisation in Ukraine in the face of the Russian aggression remains high. The majority of the population actively supports the actions of the Ukrainian armed forces and the authorities, and there are relatively few cases of collaboration with enemy forces in the occupied territories. However, the lack of prospects for a quick end to the war may weaking the determination to resist. That is why it is important to provide support directly to Ukrainian society, including humanitarian aid.

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