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Removing Single Market Barriers: Challenges and Perspectives

Author(s): Marta Makowska / Language(s): English

The COVID-19 pandemic has limited the functioning of the single market, which has contributed to a 24% drop in intra-EU trade in second and third quarter of 2020. In addition to pre-existing barriers, the Member States introduced new, often permanent, restrictions on cross-border economic activity. In order to restore the full economic potential of the EU, including global competitiveness, in March 2020 the European Commission (EC) published a long-term action plan to strengthen the single market. However, growing protectionism of the Member States poses challenge for implementing this concept.

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Ambitious Plans and Economic Pragmatism - China in the Face of Climate Change

Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English

China’s policy on climate change mainly serves to improve its international image, increase the competitiveness of its economy, and strengthen the legitimacy of the Communist Party’s (CPC) power. China’s activities include the development of green technologies and the announcement of a plan to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by around 2030. However, the plans are unevenly implemented, sometimes even contrary to expectations, as evidenced by the construction of new coal-fired power plants. The problem of satisfying the country’s energy needs while protecting the environment means that the EU and the U.S. should treat China’s pro-climate declarations with caution.

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Russia’s Wagner Group Expanding Influence in Africa

Author(s): Jędrzej Czerep / Language(s): English

The likely finalisation of a contract between the government of Mali and the private military company (PMC) known as the Wagner Group threatens the future of the EU’s military cooperation with this country. The Wagner Group’s engagement in Mali would be another major intervention by the PMC on the continent. The deployment of these informal Russian forces will not resolve the jihadist threat, but would help Russia present itself as an alternative to the West in Africa.

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The Government Crisis in Romania and the Prospects for Overcoming It

Author(s): Jakub Pieńkowski / Language(s): English

On 5 October, the minority government of the National Liberal Party (PNL) and the Democratic Alliance of Hungarians (UDMR) of Prime Minister Florin Ciţu, received a vote of no confidence. The appointment of a new stable government is uncertain. This political crisis has weakened Romania’s capabilities to tackle COVID-19 and could hamper the implementation of the Next Generation EU recovery plan. The prospect of a series of unstable governments will hinder the structural reforms on which Romanian membership in the Schengen area depends, as well as cooperation with foreign partners.

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Sechin’s Empire: The Growing Importance of Rosneft in Russian Politics

Author(s): Bartosz Bieliszczuk / Language(s): English

This September, the Russian government supported a request from Rosneft, Russia’s biggest oil company, to allow it to export natural gas via the Gazprom-owned Nord Stream 2 (NS2), which is not yet operational. President Vladimir Putin will make the ultimate decision. However, the EU law requiring access to NS2 for shippers other than Gazprom means that it is possible that the Kremlin will try to allow such limited competition. In practice, it would mean that NS2 is used by only two companies controlled by the Kremlin, which would not comport to EU law. Such a scenario, however, would signal the growing influence of Rosneft’s head, Igor Sechin, on the Russian and international political scenes.

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Regression and Pro-Russia Rhetoric: China’s Reaction to Lithuania’s Change of Policy

Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English

In 2021, Lithuania revised its policy towards China, including withdrawing from the “17+1” initiative and tightening relations with Taiwan. In response, China withdrew its ambassador to Lithuania, accused the country of succumbing to U.S. influence, and restricted Lithuanian companies’ access to its market. At the same time, the Chinese authorities are trying to neutralise the impact of Lithuania’s influence in the EU. It is in the Union’s interest to support Lithuania in its dispute with China, as well as to further develop economic relations with Taiwan, including the diversification of supply chains.

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Hungary’s Relations with Russia

Author(s): Veronika Jóźwiak / Language(s): English

The Hungarian government’s actions, especially in the field of energy, fit with Russia’s increasingly aggressive policy aimed at weakening Western structures. Its influence on Hungary is deepening in the political, economic, and social dimensions. Both the Hungarian perception of international relations and the view of Russia as a politically neutral economic partner, as well as the benefits it brings for this country, are contrary to the interests of Poland, the V4, NATO, and the EU.

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Moving Away from Investment Arbitration within the European Union

Author(s): Szymon Zaręba / Language(s): English

The September and October 2021 rulings of the Court of Justice of the EU indicate that the court is consistently aiming to put an end to the practice of arbitration proceedings between EU investors and Member States. Like the European Commission, it considers the practice to be contrary to EU law. Its rulings create an opportunity to limit compensation payments to EU investors by Member States, including Poland. However, the Commission will strive to create alternative solutions to protect foreign investments.

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Turkey Towards Afghanistan

Author(s): Karol Wasilewski / Language(s): English

Turkey’s negotiations with the Taliban aim to strengthen the country’s political influence in Afghanistan, hoping that would improve its international position, help develop its strategy towards Asia, and limit the influx of Afghan refugees. Cooperation with Turkey on Afghanistan could help the EU better manage migration from the latter.

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North Korea’s Foreign Policy Towards South Korea and the U.S.

Author(s): Oskar Pietrewicz / Language(s): English

In recent months, North Korea has intensified missile tests, while signalling the possibility of resuming talks with South Korea and the U.S. These signals of openness to dialogue indicate that North Korea wants the next South Korean president, who will be elected in March 2022, to be favourable to the inter-Korean dialogue. In turn, the demonstration of military capabilities serves to strengthen North Korea’s position ahead of possible negotiations with the U.S. to convince it to ease sanctions. The difficult domestic situation will not persuade North Korea to take a more conciliatory stance in the talks, however.

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Belarus in Turkey’s Foreign Policy

Author(s): Karol Wasilewski / Language(s): English

Turkey’s actions towards Belarus show that the country plays a greater role in Turkish foreign policy than bilateral relations might suggest. It would be beneficial for Turkey’s Western allies, including Poland, to take this factor into account in the dialogue with their Turkish partner on the political use of the migration through the Belarusian-Polish border by Alexander Lukashenka’s regime and on the political situation in Belarus.

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Implementation of EU Trade Agreements with Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine: Results and Challenges

Author(s): Elżbieta Kaca / Language(s): English

The pace of the realisation of the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreements (DCFTAs) by Eastern Partnership (EaP) countries associated with the EU varies. Most progress has been made in relation to trade in goods and the harmonisation of standards for industrial and food products with the EU. In other areas, such as the liberalisation of services or competitiveness, the countries differ in the implementation of the provisions. The DCFTAs with Moldova and Ukraine have brought the most benefits, and to a lesser extent, the one with Georgia. To further increase trade, it is crucial to speed up the adoption of EU standards by enterprises, and in this area, the Union can increase its assistance.

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Memory and Politics: The Importance of the Treaty of Trianon for Hungary

Author(s): Veronika Jóźwiak / Language(s): English

4 June marks the centenary of the signing of the Treaty of Trianon, the most important historical event of the 20th century for Hungarian politics. In the public’s perception, it is still a lively and traumatic history. The source of this is, on the one hand, the violation of the national community by the treaty, which has left deep marks on the social consciousness of Hungarians, and, on the other hand, the memory of the Trianon is fuelled and used for political purposes in both Hungary and neighbouring countries.

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The European Deterrence Initiative Record and Perspectives

Author(s): Artur Kacprzyk / Language(s): English

In recent years, the U.S. has considerably strengthened its military capabilities in Europe, mainly through the European Deterrence Initiative (EDI). They will not be weakened by planned cuts in EDI funding. Despite the negative implications, radical changes will not result from the transfer of funding for infrastructure improvements in Europe to finance the construction of the border wall with Mexico. Uncertainty over the future shape of the U.S. military presence in Europe is related, however, to the potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the U.S. defence budget.

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Ireland at a Crossroads: Forming a Coalition in the Shadow of COVID-19

Author(s): Przemysław Biskup / Language(s): English

In the Republic of Ireland’s general election of 8 February, the left-wing nationalist party Sinn Fein (SF) won an unprecedented victory. However, the fragmentation of the lower house of parliament, the Dail Eireann, made it difficult to form a new government. The beginning of the pandemic, which roughly coincided with the election, temporarily extended the term of Fine Gael’s centre-right cabinet led by Taoiseach (prime minister) Leo Varadkar. The negotiations of his party with the centre-right Fianna Fail and the Greens lead to the creation of an “extended grand coalition”. Consequently, Sinn Fein would take over the role of the official opposition. The election results increase the significance of the problem of reunification of the island in Irish politics and in the EU-UK Brexit negotiations.

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U.S. Policy in the Arctic

Author(s): Paweł Markiewicz / Language(s): English

The Arctic has become another contested area between the U.S., Russia, and China. The region’s growing importance for global trade and American security means the U.S. goal is largely to maintain freedom of navigation in the Arctic. For this reason, the Trump administration strives to increase American capacities to operate in the Arctic. The effects of the COVID-19 pandemic will delay implementing these plans; nevertheless, they will be achieved in the long term and the U.S. will also expect support in the Arctic from NATO allies.

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NATO Strategic Reflection: How to Augment the Political Dimension and Consultations

Author(s): Wojciech Lorenz / Language(s): English

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has set up a group of experts whose task is to develop recommendations on strengthening the political dimension and NATO consultations. The immediate reason for this decision was the unilateral actions of member states that might have a negative effect on the security of the Alliance. Therefore, a group of experts should primarily look for solutions to reduce the risk of such activities in the future. To this end, it is necessary to strengthen the specific dimension of consultations to increase the chances of coordinating allied policy towards the Middle East and North Africa, and even towards China.

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Eastern Partnership Policy Beyond 2020

Author(s): Aleksandra KOZIOŁ / Language(s): English

In March, the European Commission presented the Eastern Partnership policy beyond 2020. It maintains the current direction of the European Union’s actions towards its eastern neighbourhood. The vagueness of the document indicates a lack of unanimity within the EU regarding the development of the initiative and raises concerns about a lack of further strengthening of cooperation between EaP and EU countries. The EaP conference in June will set the course of action for the coming years. It will be a challenge for Poland in this period to promote the greater involvement of EaP countries through the “more for more” principle that rewards the leaders in cooperation.

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Chinese Discourse on NATO

Author(s): Justyna Szczudlik / Language(s): English

Chinese experts’ interest in NATO has been growing for a year. The reason is the debate on China that began in the Alliance last year. China treats NATO as part of its rivalry with the U.S., vindicated by Chinese analysts’ emphasis on divergences between members, critical assessments of U.S. NATO policy and their conciliatory approach to European members. The continuation of the Alliance debate on China, including recognizing it as a threat, may lead the latter to intensify efforts to widen the divisions and seek closer cooperation with Russia.

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German Debate on Nuclear Weapons: Implications for NATO

Author(s): Łukasz Kulesa / Language(s): English

In May 2020, the leader of the SPD faction in the German parliament, Rolf Mützenich, opened a debate about the withdrawal of Germany from NATO’s nuclear-sharing programme and ending the stationing of U.S. nuclear weapons on its territory. The course and results of this debate will affect NATO nuclear policy, the credibility of deterrence, the perspectives for arms control, and relations with Russia. To maintain the current model of German participation, it is necessary for its allies and NATO leadership to offer arguments in support of and better explain to the public the role of U.S. nuclear weapons deployed in Europe.

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