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Ukraine’s Policy Towards Turkey

Author(s): Maria Piechowska / Language(s): English

The current revival of Ukrainian-Turkish contacts stems from Ukraine’s efforts to win over Turkey as an economic and defence partner in the face of Russian aggression. Both countries share the common goal of limiting Russian domination in the Black Sea. Turkey supports Ukraine’s territorial integrity and stands up for the Crimean Tatars, persecuted by Russia. Close bilateral relations may make Turkey - after the EU and the U.S. - one of Ukraine’s most important partners. However, the intensity of the political dialogue will depend on the state of Russian-Turkish relations.

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Defender Europe 21: Importance of the Military Exercises for Defence and Deterrence in Europe

Author(s): Wojciech Lorenz / Language(s): English

During the Defender Europe 21 exercises, U.S. troops tested a new concept of multi-domain operations, which is to provide them with an operational advantage over Russia and China. Continuing exercises with NATO allies is one of the main ways of developing defence and deterrence capabilities in Europe in the long term. Given the likely cuts in U.S. defence spending, NATO should increase its common military budget and allocate some funds to regular, large-scale exercises with significant U.S. involvement.

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Acceleration of Climate Policy and the Energy Transformation in Slovakia

Author(s): Łukasz Ogrodnik / Language(s): English

The Eduard Heger government wants to increase the production of energy from renewable sources and nuclear energy. This is evidenced among others by the preparations for the commissioning of two new units of the Mochovce nuclear power plant. Although Visegrad Group states include pronouncements they plan to use nuclear power in their national energy mixes, the difference in those mixes limits the possibilities of formulating regional climate policy and results in a lack of coherence on the EU forum. Hydrogen fuel, the use of which is growing in Slovakia, also remains an untapped potential for regional cooperation.

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The Biden Administration’s Vision of North Korea Policy

Author(s): Oskar Pietrewicz / Language(s): English

The main goal of U.S. policy towards North Korea remains the complete denuclearisation of the Korean Peninsula. The Biden administration intends to implement it by continued sanctions pressure, direct negotiations with North Korea, and coordination of actions with allies and other countries. The flexibility of the U.S. approach suggests its readiness to initiate talks aimed at freezing and limiting the North Korean nuclear programme. However, the vague nature of the American declarations and the expectant attitude towards North Korea pose the risk of maintaining the deadlock in the U.S.-North Korea talks and the further development of the North Korean nuclear and missile potential.

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Perspectives on U.S.-UK Relations after Brexit

Author(s): Przemysław Biskup,Paweł Markiewicz / Language(s): English

The United Kingdom’s withdrawal from the EU and Britain’s new integrated strategy from March 2021 is creating challenges for President Joe Biden’s transatlantic policies. The lack of cooperation between the UK and EU in areas of foreign and security policy may adversely affect U.S. policies in Europe. Even though the new UK strategy generally emphasises the importance of British-American cooperation, it also suggests potential tensions in relations with the U.S. associated with the question of Northern Ireland, economic relations with China, or shifting British involvement to the Indo-Pacific.

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Germany-U.S. Relations: A Return to the Strategic Partnership

Author(s): Lidia Gibadło,Mateusz M. Piotrowski / Language(s): English

Since Joe Biden’s presidency began, Germany’s relationship with the United States has improved. The U.S. made significant concessions, primary among them agreeing to the construction of the Nord Stream 2 (NS2) gas pipeline. This is a new opening for the U.S. in the bilateral relations and sets the foundations for the reconstruction of the strategic partnership with Germany that Biden sees as necessary to implement U.S. policy towards a post-Brexit Europe. However, the possible reluctance of the next German government to adopt a more confrontational policy towards China could be a challenge to that goal.

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The Specificity of Hungarian-Israeli Relations

Author(s): Veronika Jóźwiak,Michał Wojnarowicz / Language(s): English

Hungary under Viktor Orbán’s premiership has become one of Israel’s most important European partners. This is reflected in the diplomatic support for Israel by Hungary, mainly at the EU level. Close relations with Israel serve Hungary’s foreign and domestic policy goals and at the same time weaken the effectiveness of the EU’s Middle East policy. However, the new Israeli government may be less open to political cooperation with this country because of earlier criticism of Hungary on, for example, historical issues.

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A New Impulse for the Development of Military Mobility in the EU

Author(s): Aleksandra KOZIOŁ / Language(s): English

In May, the Council of the EU agreed that Canada, Norway, and the U.S. can join the EU’s Military Mobility project. This is the first decision to allow third countries to participate in Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO). The political impulse has the potential to improve the speed and flexibility of the deployment of military forces within the EU. However, a coherent approach by the EU and NATO should be maintained and joint investments in transport infrastructure increased.

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Elections and Presidency: Priorities of French EU Policy

Author(s): Łukasz Maślanka / Language(s): English

The French presidency of the Council of the EU, which will be in the first half of 2022, will coincide with the presidential and parliamentary campaign in that country. President Emmanuel Macron’s goal is to convince voters that he effectively supports the interests of French businesses in the EU and is laying the foundations of the EU’s superpower status based on the Franco-German tandem. The electoral context may make the EU a hostage to internal politics in France. Certain French demands, such as deepening social integration, will increase divisions in the Union.

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Jordan’s Political Strengthening: Regional and International Context

Author(s): Sara Nowacka / Language(s): English

The July meeting of U.S. President Joe Biden and Jordan’s King Abdullah II was a manifestation of the improvement in relations between the two countries. Abdullah’s distinction as the first Arab leader Biden met since becoming president confirms the shift in U.S. Middle East policy from the previous administration’s, which enhanced the kingdom’s destabilisation. Jordan’s stability is crucial for the EU to maintain its influence on the security situation in its immediate neighbourhood.

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The Impact of the Situation in Afghanistan on Regional Security in Central Asia

Author(s): Arkadiusz Legieć / Language(s): English

From the perspective of Central Asian states, the potential for further destabilisation of Afghanistan is seen as a significant regional transnational threat. It would make these countries more susceptible to influence, primarily from Russia, which bases its policy in the region on military power. The withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan is already being used by Russia, China, and Turkey in propaganda as an example of the lack of American credibility, as well as that of European countries. This situation will limit the prospects for cooperation between the Central Asian republics and the U.S. and the EU in the future.

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Prospects for Belarus-Ukraine Relations

Author(s): Maciej Zaniewicz / Language(s): English

Belarusian-Ukrainian relations began to deteriorate last August when Belarus handed over to Russia - instead of Ukraine - pro-Russia mercenaries detained in Minsk who were fighting in Donbas. Ukraine has joined the EU’s sanctions regime against Belarus and the countries have enacted mutual trade restrictions. Bilateral relations are likely to deteriorate further.

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The Future Development of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation

Author(s): Arkadiusz Legieć / Language(s): English

The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) in its 20 years of operation has not had a lasting impact on security in Central Asia, serving mainly as a forum for political consultations between Russia and China with the countries of the region. The SCO has only to a limited extent achieved the goals assumed at its creation, including stabilisation of the region and fighting terrorism and crime. Russia and China have developed other instruments to influence the situation in Central Asia, independent from the SCO. However, the organisation is an important instrument for creating legitimacy for their policies towards the countries of the region, as well as in limiting the influence of the EU and the U.S.

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Costly Neglect: The German Political Scene Grapples with Afghanistan

Author(s): Lidia Gibadło / Language(s): English

An incorrect assessment of the situation in Afghanistan and the delayed evacuation of Germanpersonnel and their associates have contributed to the decline in CDU/CSU ratings. The ChristianDemocrats’ standing is also made more difficult by the prospect of restarting the debate onmigration policy, which is still controversial within the party. Criticism of the government’sactions by the opposition during the campaign and the low popularity of Armin Laschet, theleader of the Christian Democrats, may jeopardise the party’s victory in the Bundestag electionsin September.

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Prospects for a Modification of EU Fiscal Rules

Author(s): Melchior Szczepanik / Language(s): English

Confronted with the economic crisis provoked by the COVID-19 pandemic, EU Member States decided to increase public spending which, due to low interest rates, they could finance through debt on attractive terms. These circumstances favour the calls for reform of EU fiscal rules that impose limits related to deficit and public debt. Modifications will most probably focus on making more room for growth enhancing spending (green and digital transitions, education).

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Zapad 2021: Comprehensive Drills Aimed at NATO Countries

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English

The active phase of the Belarusian-Russian Zapad 2021 exercises ended on 16 September. They were the largest manoeuvres in Russia’s western strategic direction since the collapse of the USSR. They were accompanied by hybrid actions aimed mainly at the countries of NATO’s Eastern Flank, and they will continue after the manoeuvres. It was also another demonstration of Russia’s readiness to use force against the Alliance and a presentation of the high degree of interoperability of the armed forces of both countries. For NATO, the deepening military integration of Russia and Belarus requires an update of the Alliance’s defence plans and continued reinforcement of its Eastern Flank.

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The Impact of the Situation in Afghanistan on Military Missions in Africa

Author(s): Jędrzej Czerep / Language(s): English

The Taliban victory in Afghanistan was enthusiastically received by some armed Al-Qaida affiliated jihadist groups in Africa with whom they share a sense of fighting for a common cause. Countries participating in international military operations in Somalia and the Sahel are limiting their involvement because of the growing political cost. In the case of Somalia, the risk of Islamists seizing power has increased. In Mali, the likelihood of the extremists’ participation in ruling the country has grown. To prevent a repeat of the Afghanistan scenario, EU states and the U.S. will modify their military engagement.

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Towards a dependence with no alternative: Russia’s increased role in the Belarusian economy

Author(s): Kamil Kłysiński / Language(s): English

Macroeconomic data for the first six months of 2023 confirm Belarus’s steadily increasing dependence on Russia. In the second year of the war, Minsk is paying a high price for its complicity in Russia’s aggression, the regime’s acts of repression targeting its opponents, and its confrontational policy towards the West. This has involved Belarus losing a major portion of its markets in the EU and Ukraine. As a consequence, Belarus’s trade in commodities with the Russian Federation already accounts for around 70% of its total trade; considering that the transport of Belarusian goods (mainly fuels and potash fertilisers) is dependent on transit through Russian ports and railways, Russia’s share in Belarusian exports now exceeds 90%.

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Prospects for the Normalisation of Turkish-Armenian Relations

Author(s): Arkadiusz Legieć,Karol Wasilewski / Language(s): English

The leaders of Turkey and Armenia announce an attempt to establish diplomatic relations and open borders. Success would be beneficial for both countries: it would strengthen Turkey's influence in the Caucasus, and it would enable Armenia to break the regional isolation. However, success remains unlikely due to nationalist sentiment in both countries and the possibility of Russia and Azerbaijan sabotaging the talks.

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A Tight Race: Czechia Readies for Elections to the Chamber of Deputies

Author(s): Łukasz Ogrodnik / Language(s): English

After the elections to the lower house of the Czech parliament on 8-9 October, the biggest political forces will be the ruling Action of the Dissatisfied Citizens (ANO) led by Prime Minister Andrej Babiš, as well as two coalitions - the right-wing liberal Together and centrist-liberal PirStan. The limited coalition capabilities of ANO, the further fragmentation of the parliament, and President Miloš Zeman’s stance to favour Babiš may make the appointment of a government more difficult. After the elections, Czechia will face long coalition negotiations, which may affect the efficiency of its foreign policy.

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