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Przygotowania władz Rosji do wyborów parlamentarnych

Author(s): Jakub Benedyczak / Language(s): Polish

Rosyjskie władze przygotowują się do wrześniowych wyborów do Dumy Państwowej, spodziewając się trwałego wzrostu niezadowolenia społecznego. By utrzymać kontrolę nad kampanią i procesem wyborczym, inicjują powstanie koncesjonowanych partii opozycyjnych. Rozbudowują także instrumenty represji wobec krytyków władz, co stanie się tendencją systemu rosyjskiego przed wyborami prezydenckimi w 2024 r.

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Prospects for Russia’s Policy Towards the South Caucasus

Author(s): Arkadiusz Legieć / Language(s): English

The priority of Russia’s policy towards the Caucasus is to maintain influence on the countries of the region, primarily through military instruments. Russia is striving to establish control over Nagorno-Karabakh (NK) using methods similar to the separatist republics of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, which will enable the Russian peacekeepers to remain in the NK after 2025. The EU and NATO’s priority in the Caucasus should be to counter Russia’s rapprochement with Turkey, which may limit the EU’s instruments in the region and adversely affect NATO cohesion.

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Walking the Line: France’s Dilemma in Relations with China

Author(s): Łukasz Maślanka / Language(s): English

President Emmanuel Macron believes that France’s importance in global politics depends on maintaining correct relations with all major states, including China. This concept includes support for the EU-China Comprehensive Investment Agreement (CAI) and a reluctance to side with the U.S. in its disputes with China. The Chinese authorities see the French ambitions as an opportunity to loosen transatlantic ties and increase Chinese influence in the EU. Their increasing interference in France’s internal affairs, however, may lead Macron to adopt a more resolute stance.

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India’s Climate Policy: From Lagging Behind to Leading the Way

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English

Mounting a globally effective fight against climate change requires the participation of India, the fourth largest CO2 emitter in the world. Its position in climate negotiations has evolved from a state blocking ambitious solutions to a leader in combating climate change. More ambitious climate action, including a zero-net emissions target, requires international support and better access to capital and technology for the green and just transition. This is set to be a key area of the EU-India partnership. Poland can enhance cooperation in this field and join the Indian-led International Solar Alliance.

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Syria: The End of Isolation? Arab States Seek to Normalise Relations

Author(s): Sara Nowacka / Language(s): English

In February, the Arab League (AL) re-opened the offices of one of its agencies in Syria, thus resuming activity in that country for the first time since the outbreak of the civil war in 2011. Most Arab states are now seeking to normalise relations with the Assad regime and criticise sanctions imposed by the U.S. and the EU against Syria, putting pressure on them to lift the restrictions. This position is conducive to the efforts of some EU countries, in particular Italy, which hosts a large number of Syrian refugees, to improve relations with Assad. This may contribute to a lack of consensus on EU policy towards Syria.

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The Impact of the Repression in Xinjiang on China’s Relations with Other Countries

Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English

The policy of repression of Uyghurs in Xinjiang has become a significant element of criticism of China in the world. In March this year, the EU, U.S., Canada, and the United Kingdom imposed sanctions on China over the matter. Moreover, the Netherlands, the U.S. and Canada described China’s actions as genocide. For China, however, its actions involving Uyghurs are a key element of domestic politics, which is why it presents accusations as disinformation. It has imposed counter sanctions, including on the EU, and their wide scope indicates that for China, Xinjiang is more important than, for example, the ratification of the Comprehensive Investment Agreement (CAI) with the EU.

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The Impact of Brexit on Surrender Cooperation between the EU and the United Kingdom

Author(s): Stefania Kolarz / Language(s): English

By negotiating the post-Brexit trade and cooperation agreement (TCA), the EU and the United Kingdom (UK) sought to maintain the effectiveness of cooperation in surrendering persons to criminal proceedings. However, the rules contained in the TCA are a manifestation of the weakening of trust between the participating states. While the procedures will remain swift, simplified extradition will be less frequent and rely on the goodwill of the states to a larger extent.

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Conference on the Future of Europe: Delayed Start of the New Edition

Author(s): Jolanta Szymańska / Language(s): English

With a one-year delay caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, the next edition of the Conference on the Future of Europe is about to start. The first stage of the discussion on reforms of the European Union in 2017-2019 did not bring any solutions to many issues. Nevertheless, the EU institutions count on a renewal of the process. However, the timing is not favourable - the persistent health crisis will make the debate difficult and the need to manage it will discourage Member State governments from taking decisions on deep structural reforms.

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Turkey: The European Union’s Adversarial Partner

Author(s): Karol Wasilewski / Language(s): English

The EU intends to implement a new model of relations with Turkey based on phased, proportional, and reversible engagement. The Union’s plans are a consequence of a dilemma: although Turkey often acts like an adversary, EU members want to maintain close relations with it due to the convergence of interests in areas such as migration and the economy. The Union’s new approach creates the opportunity to strengthen its influence on Turkey. Yet, different expectations about the future shape of relations will keep EU-Turkey relations tense.

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Ukraine’s New Military Security Strategy

Author(s): Maciej Zaniewicz / Language(s): English

Ukraine’s new Military Security Strategy, adopted in March 2021, is based on the concept of comprehensive security. The potential for further Russian incursions is to be prevented by raising the costs of aggression through, among other things, the development of territorial defence forces, the modernisation of armaments, and the use of asymmetric defensive actions. The strategy sets achievable goals and its implementation will have a positive impact on Ukraine’s ability to defend itself against a massive Russian invasion. However, it will not prevent periodic escalations along the demarcation line in Donbas.

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“Global Partnership for a New Era”: Perspectives on Japan-U.S. Relations

Author(s): Oskar Pietrewicz / Language(s): English

Japan plays a key role in the U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy, which is confirmed by Prime Minister Suga Yoshihide’s visit to Washington in April. His government is ready to deepen cooperation with the U.S. on security issues, but while maintaining a stable relationship with China. Cooperation in the areas of the economy, technology, and climate will be of key importance to the global partnership between Japan and the U.S. This creates opportunities for deepening cooperation with Japan by the EU, including Poland, especially in the implementation of climate goals.

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Prospects for EU-UK Security Cooperation

Author(s): Aleksandra KOZIOŁ / Language(s): English

Brexit forced a re-definition of the rules under which EU-UK cooperation in the field of security should take place. However, a divergence of strategic interests may turn out to be apparent in the face of common challenges. The effectiveness of cooperation with the UK in the coming years will depend on the coherence of the EU position regarding the directions of involvement in foreign, security, and defence policy. They are to be determined by the ongoing work on the Strategic Compass.

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Sudan: Cooperation with the U.S. at Russia’s Expense

Author(s): Jędrzej Czerep / Language(s): English

In April, the Sudanese authorities ordered the suspension of the construction of a Russian naval logistics centre on the country’s Red Sea coast. The project was a cause for concern in the U.S., the EU, Saudi Arabia, and NATO. The Sudanese did not want to compromise American support for the country’s economic stabilisation, the scale of which gave the United States the advantage in its rivalry with Russia. The case also highlighted the growing regional importance of Sudan as it emerges from isolation.

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British Defence Strategy: Importance for NATO’s Eastern Flank

Author(s): Artur Kacprzyk,Wojciech Lorenz / Language(s): English

The United Kingdom has announced that it will strengthen its ability to shape global security and respond to threats from Russia. It intends to thoroughly modernise its military, although it also will permanently reduce its land forces. These changes may, in the long run, allow Britain to gain a force more effective on the modern battlefield, but before that happens, it may weaken British combat capabilities. Poland should look for new opportunities for cooperation with the UK to strengthen the common potential. A mutually beneficial form of cooperation could be Poland’s joining the UK-led Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF).

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France-Rwanda Reconciliation Follows Genocide Report

Author(s): Jędrzej Czerep / Language(s): English

In March, a commission of historians commissioned by President Emmanuel Macron to study France’s role before and during the Rwandan genocide in 1994 published the results of their research. Its conclusions were critical of France and well-received in Rwanda. That paved the way for the first visit to Rwanda in a decade by the French leader. The end of more than 25 years of mutual hostility will bring political benefits to both sides. The historians’ report contributes to the discussion about the future of humanitarian interventions.

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Prospects for the Global Development of Small Modular Reactors

Author(s): Bartosz Bieliszczuk,Zuzanna Nowak / Language(s): English

The development of small modular reactors (SMR) creates the opportunity to use nuclear energy without extensive time- and money-consuming investments in large-scale nuclear power plants. Therefore, both exporters of nuclear technology and potential importers, as well as private investors are interested in the development of this market. The lower costs and many different applications might mean that SMR will play an important role in decarbonising economies. The spread of the technology will depend on, among others, the successful commercial implementation of the first SMR models, certification on European markets, as well as the EU’s policy toward nuclear energy.

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FDP Well-Positioned Ahead of the Bundestag Elections

Author(s): Lidia Gibadło / Language(s): English

The elections in Baden-Württemberg and Rhineland-Palatinate as well as the results of public opinion polls indicate that the Free Democratic Party (FDP) has a chance to increase its representation in the Bundestag after the elections in 2021. This is favoured by internal tensions within the CDU/CSU and the FDP’s image as a party guarding the liberal economy and civil liberties during the COVID-19 pandemic. The growing support for the FDP increases its chances of becoming a leading opposition party, and even a potential coalition partner in the new federal government.

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United Opposition: The “Government of Change” Against Netanyahu

Author(s): Michał Wojnarowicz / Language(s): English

On 13 June, a coalition formed of eight opposition parties won a vote of confidence in the Knesset. This marks the loss of power by Benjamin Netanyahu, who was replaced as prime minister by Naftali Bennett. The new cabinet has a slim parliamentary majority and includes parties with a very diverse ideological profile, which will reduce its effectiveness and stability. In matters of security, the government will maintain the current policies, and in foreign affairs it will pursue an improvement in relations with the Biden administration and the EU.

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Prospects for V4-Japan Cooperation

Author(s): Veronika Jóźwiak / Language(s): English

Japan is updating and strengthening the political dimension of its cooperation with the countries of the Visegrad Group (the V4 - Czechia, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia). It was prompted by China’s growing involvement in the Balkans and the EU’s preparation of its Indo-Pacific strategy. In both cases, Japan counts on the support of the V4, which would benefit from tightening multidimensional cooperation with an Asian partner that does not raise objections in the EU. However, the V4 members’ inconsistent approaches to China may undermine the coordination of the political dialogue between Japan and the Visegrad states, although it is unlikely to have a negative impact on economic cooperation.

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Lithuania’s Plans to Strengthen Security Policy

Author(s): Kinga Raś / Language(s): English

The Lithuanian government has announced increased security activities related to its desire to improve the country’s defence capabilities and various responses to new conditions, which include the change of U.S. president, EU defence policy, and Russia’s actions against Belarus and Ukraine. The intensification of Lithuania’s security efforts has the potential to strengthen the bilateral cooperation with Poland.

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