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Tensions in U.S.-France Economic Transatlantic Cooperation are Returning

Author(s): Amanda Dziubińska,Mateusz Piotrowski / Language(s): English

Despite the close and multi-sector cooperation and ideological proximity of presidents Joe Biden and Emmanuel Macron, the U.S. and France have been unable to reconcile their differences in approach to key economic issues in transatlantic relations. The dispute over protectionism and their different positions in selected economic areas will burden bilateral relations in the coming years, threatening the stability of relations between the U.S. and the EU. Although the adoption of similar subsidies as the U.S. by the EU in the single market may be beneficial for Poland, the desire of individual countries to subsidise their own economies will cause internal tensions within the EU.

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Triggering the Rule-of-Law Conditionality Mechanism against Hungary

Author(s): Veronika Jóźwiak / Language(s): English

The mechanism that makes the payment of funds from the EU budget conditional on compliance with the principles of the rule of law isthe newest instrument for protecting the Union’s financial and political interests. The tool allows the European Commission and the EU Council (Council) to exert influence on Member States that violate the fundamental principles of the Community. Triggering it against Hungary might result in a reduction of EU funds to the country as a consequence of rule-of-law violations for the first time in EU history. It is doubtful, however, that this will lead to systemic changes in Hungary.

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Saudi Arabia’s Agreement with Iran Signals Policy Shift

Author(s): Sara Nowacka / Language(s): English

The main motivation for the Saudi authorities to reach an agreement with Iran was the desire to reduce tensions in the Persian Gulf to facilitate the diversification and strengthening of the Saudi economy. China’s involvement in the talks is a further sign of the deteriorating relations between Saudi Arabia and the U.S. The monarchy will use its relations with China to strengthen its position in international relations and to discourage the West from criticising its policies.

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South Korea and Japan Attempt to Mend Relations

Author(s): Oskar Pietrewicz / Language(s): English

On 16-17 March, President Yoon Suk-yeol visited Tokyo where he met with Prime Minister Kishida Fumio. The first visit of a South Korean president to Japan in more than 11 years was to resolve historical, political, and economic disputes. The lifting of trade restrictions and the tightening of security cooperation between both U.S. allies strengthens the United States in its competition with China. However, a lasting improvement in relations between South Korea and Japan will be hindered by the scale of the still unresolved problems and lack of South Koreans’ support for Yoon’s conciliatory policy.

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Iran Continues Course as Half a Year of Protests Subside

Author(s): Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski / Language(s): English

The recent wave of protests in Iran is subsiding, decisively pacified by the security forces and lacking the emergence of opposition leaders. Because there is little chance that the authorities will implement any significant reforms, the conditions for another anti-system rebellion will remain in Iran. The need to strengthen and stabilise the Iranian regime will encourage it to further broaden partnerships with China and Russia.

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South Africa-Russia Maintain Special Relations

Author(s): Jędrzej Czerep / Language(s): English

Although South Africa declares it is neutral regarding the war in Ukraine and offers mediation, it remains a de facto ally of Russia. This is due to the strong sentiment among the ruling elites for the period of cooperation with the USSR, its successor Russia and its activity and influence in this country, and the perception that BRICS will help elevate South Africa’s international importance. If Vladimir Putin visits Johannesburg as scheduled in August, the authorities of the state, which is party to the Rome Statute, will not be willing to fulfil their obligation to arrest him or may even leave the International Criminal Court.

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France’s Need to Be Different: Macron Policy Includes “Balancing Power”

Author(s): Łukasz Maślanka / Language(s): English

President Emmanuel Macron’s foreign policy, including in particular aid to Ukraine and the Indo-Pacific strategy, flows from an identical diagnosis with key NATO and EU allies of the international situation and threats. However, France’s actions are accompanied by the head of state’s rhetoric indicating the need to guard against unconditionally following U.S. policy and seeking a role for France and the EU as an independent actor and a “balancing power”. These statements, although partly conditioned by domestic policy needs, undermine France’s credibility and evoke associations with the concept of multipolarity and spheres of influence promoted by authoritarian powers.

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Using Frozen Russian Assets to Rebuild Ukraine: Possibilities for the EU

Author(s): Elżbieta Kaca / Language(s): English

The EU wants to finance the reconstruction of Ukraine, using for this purpose frozen Russian assets, among others. The European Commission proposes to improve the system of confiscation of private assets of sanctioned persons in case of criminal activity and to obtain income from the active management of immobilised Russian public assets. These solutions may yield limited results. To be more effective, the EU would have to reach an international agreement to confiscate the reserves of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation.

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EU-India FTA Negotiations Are More Than Just About Trade

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English

Negotiations of a free trade and investment protection agreement between the European Union and India are unlikely to be finalised by the end of this year as hoped for. The challenge in completing them is the different economic goals, as well as the upcoming elections in the EU and India. A deal between the world’s third- and fifth-largest economies, respectively, would bring substantial benefits to both parties, not only economic but also strategic ones. Companies from the EU, including Poland, should not wait for the agreement to be approved and should try to step up their presence on the Indian market by taking advantage of reforms already introduced by the Indian government.

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EU-South Korea Extend Cooperation Beyond the Economy

Author(s): Oskar Pietrewicz / Language(s): English

The 10th EU-Republic of Korea Summit, held on 22 May in Seoul, reaffirmed the importance of South Korea as a critical Asian partner of the Union. The meeting also signalled the growing importance of security issues in bilateral relations. South Korea shares the EU’s assessment of Russian aggression against Ukraine and intends to continue to support the invaded country, but not with supplies of military equipment for now. The announcement of a “green” partnership indicates both sides’ willingness to engage in other areas of cooperation, which also will benefit the development of Polish-South Korean relations.

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EU Starts New Partnership Mission and Continues Support for Moldova’s Security

Author(s): Aleksandra KOZIOŁ,Jakub Pieńkowski / Language(s): English

The EU Partnership Mission in Moldova was launched in May 2023. Its aim is to protect the country from hybrid attacks by Russia conducted in parallel to its aggression against Ukraine. The mission provides strategic advice to Moldova’s pro-European authorities - the government of Dorin Recean from President Maia Sandu’s Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS). This complements the efforts of the EU and Member States in supporting the capacities of the Moldovan civilian security structures and armed forces. Such broad engagement will increase Moldova’s overall resilience to Russia’s actions and contribute to stabilising the EU’s eastern neighbourhood.

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Gauging the Potential of Heavy Weapons Deliveries For Ukraine from the Middle and Far East

Author(s): Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski / Language(s): English

Russia’s continuation of the war in Ukraine and partial mobilisation suggest it is prepared for a prolonged conflict. These actions also imply the increased need for continued deliveries of heavy weapons and artillery munitions for Ukraine. In light of the shrinking capabilities of the Central Europeans and limits of the production capacities of Western defence industry (including the U.S.), there is a necessity for additional sources of deliveries. These gaps might be filled by U.S. allies and partners in the Middle and Far East.

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Foreign Policy as Seen by the New Governing Centre-Right Coalition in Italy

Author(s): Łukasz Maślanka,Melchior Szczepanik / Language(s): English

Although the right-wing coalition that won the Italian parliamentary elections on 25 September includes parties previously declaring Eurosceptic ideas or rejecting the transatlantic partnership, the joint programme statement implies support for Italy’s membership of the EU and NATO. In European politics, the priority will be to seek EU support to combat economic problems and to ease the demands for speeding up public debt reduction. The differing foreign policy visions of the coalition parties, which were covered up during the campaign, may in time become a hotbed of conflict between them.

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National Security Strategy: U.S. Focuses on Relations with Asia and Europe

Author(s): Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski / Language(s): English

The latest U.S. National Security Strategy (NSS) points to the crucial importance of the Asia-Pacific region for U.S. interests and the stability of the international order. At the same time, one of the messages of this key document is reassurance of European allies regarding the American commitment to NATO and Euro-Atlantic security. The strategy traditionally puts an emphasis on the need for Europeans to strengthen the Alliance’s conventional capabilities.

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What are the Prospects for Restricting the Entry of Russians to the EU?

Author(s): Aleksandra KOZIOŁ / Language(s): English

A large number of Russian citizens have tried to enter EU territory since a mobilisation order was announced in their country. Member States, however, could not agree on the criteria for issuing visas. The Baltic states, Poland, and Finland settled on the strictest entry restrictions. Reaching consensus in the EU would be an important political signal to the Russian authorities. A coherent announcement on this issue could also shift the dissatisfaction of Russian society towards the elites responsible for the attack on Ukraine.

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Sub-Saharan Africa May Be a New Source of Gas for the EU

Author(s): Jędrzej Czerep / Language(s): English

In order to become independent from supplies of energy resources from Russia, EU countries are intensively looking for alternative gas import opportunities, including from Sub-Saharan Africa. This direction may become an important element of European diversification, but its development requires external investments and improvement and expansion of the existing infrastructure. European companies and the EU itself can play a key role in this regard.

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Israel Prepares for the Next Knesset Elections

Author(s): Michał Wojnarowicz / Language(s): English

Pre-election polls indicate that neither the ruling parties supporting the current Prime Minister Yair Lapid, nor the parties supporting former PM Benjamin Netanyahu may gain a clear advantage in parliament. However, Netanyahu has a better chance of returning to power due to the coherence of his political bloc. The election campaign, more than in previous years, is focused on economic and foreign issues.

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Iran Assists Russia with Weapons - the Military and Political Consequences

Author(s): Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski / Language(s): English

Iran is strengthening its informal alliance with Russia despite its initially cautious position on the war against Ukraine. The use of Iranian drones by Russia has been confirmed multiple times, and there are increased signals about the delivery to Russia of ballistic missiles. These systems will marginally affect the unfavourable military situation for Russia, but they likely will increase damage to Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure and the risk of another refugee wave. In this context, there is an urgent need for assistance for Ukraine with counter-drone and missile defences, as well as a change of EU policy towards Iran on the issues of non-proliferation, its nuclear programme, and the internal situation.

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A New Opening Appears in the International Telecommunications Union - without Russia

Author(s): Szymon Zaręba / Language(s): English

Russia’s loss in the competition for the position of secretary-general and a seat on the Council of the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) confirms that Russia’s position in international institutions has weakened as a result of the aggression against Ukraine. On the other hand, the success of the U.S. and the EU in the elections for key positions in the organisation gives them the opportunity to more strongly influence the shaping of standards in important branches of the modern economy, such as artificial intelligence (AI) or wireless communications. The quality of transatlantic leadership in the ITU may determine the chances of its extension to other UN specialised organisations.

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Economy and Security are Keys to Türkiye - Russia Partnership

Author(s): Aleksandra Maria Spancerska / Language(s): English

Since the beginning of the Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has been the only NATO leader to hold regular meetings with Russia’s Vladimir Putin. Türkiye has attempted to mediate between Russia and Ukraine, is a party to the grain agreement, and has acted as an intermediary in the exchange of prisoners of war. However, Türkiye’s failure to join the sanctions imposed on Russia in connection with the invasion of Ukraine weakens solidarity within the North Atlantic Alliance, but at the same time keeps open the possibility of exerting influence on Russia.

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