CEEOL - Search Result

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Budanov’s sanctions. The consequences of Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries

Author(s): Filip Rudnik / Language(s): English

Keywords: Ukraine; Russia

Ukrainian drone strikes on refinery facilities inside Russia have dealt a significant blow to the Russian fuel sector. During the first four months of 2024, the Ukrainian forces attacked more than a dozen refineries; damage of varying degrees was reported at eight of these. As a result, Russian plants temporarily shut down some of their processing capacity, which led to a drop in fuel production.

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The Israeli offensive in Rafah against the backdrop of a humanitarian disaster

Author(s): Marek Matusiak / Language(s): English

Keywords: Israel; Gaza Strip

In the second week of May, Israel launched an invasion of the southern part of the Gaza Strip (the Rafah region) and resumed massive ground & air attacks in the north (including on the city of Jabalia). Since then, its army (the Israeli Defence Forces, IDF) has taken control of the border crossing with Egypt (which had hitherto been used as the main point for importing humanitarian aid) and began entering the city of Rafah itself. As a result, Israel now fully controls land access to Gaza, which it has consistently blocked since the start of the offensive.[1]

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On the trail of the grey wolf: pan-Turkism in Turkey’s foreign policy

Author(s): Zuzanna Krzyżanowska / Language(s): English

Keywords: Turkey; Central Asia; pan-Turkism

Ankara’s active policy in the Caucasus and Central Asia is linked among other things with pan-Turkism, an idea which advocates the integration of the Turkic nations. It is continuously present in the political culture of the Turkish state, which sees itself as the leader of the Turkic community as a whole. Establishing social contacts and building a positive image for Turkey are important elements of its approach. The power of the concept of pan-Turkism nationwide results from its links with Turkish nationalism, which has a state-building effect, and from a cross-party consensus regarding the region’s importance to Turkey’s foreign policy.

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On the warpath: the development and modernisation of the Baltic states’ armed forces

Author(s): Bartosz Chmielewski,Jacek Tarociński / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; Ukraine

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 reinforced the sense of threat from Russia in the Baltic states, and spurred them to speed up the implementation of their national defence policies. Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia decided to boost their military spending and adapt their security objectives to the changing situation. The experience of the war in Ukraine and Russia’s crimes against the Ukrainian civilian population prompted the three countries to take steps aimed at ensuring that they could defend their entire national territories from day one of a possible attack. The new objectives of their security and defence policies are based on three pillars: achieving defence spending of at least 3% of GDP, securing the greater presence of allied forces, and fast-tracking technical modernisation combined with the development of their own armed forces and the expansion of their military infrastructure.

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Germany’s port strategy: a disappointing response to the crisis

Author(s): Michał Kędzierski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Germany; Energiewende

Germany’s seaports are facing a crisis. Their freight traffic volumes have been decreasing for years, and last year they dropped to levels not seen in two decades. Due to weakening competitiveness, structural issues, a failure to modernise and expand transport infrastructure (mainly railways), as well as insufficient digitalisation and automation, German ports are losing customers both domestic and foreign to rivals from neighbouring countries, including ports in the North Sea (Rotterdam, Antwerp-Bruges and Amsterdam), the Baltic Sea (Gdańsk, Gdynia and Klaipėda) and even the Adriatic Sea (Trieste and Koper). Furthermore, the Energiewende envisages that ports should be transformed into energy hubs, which poses additional challenges for them.

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A shift further to the right. Radical parties are gaining popularity in Romania

Author(s): Kamil Całus / Language(s): English

Keywords: Romania

Over the past year or so, Romania has seen a rapid increase in the popularity of radical and Eurosceptic right-wing parties which are unwilling to provide military or financial support to Ukraine and sometimes openly advocate for cooperation with Russia. According to polls, the political forces that represent these views could garner over 25% of the Romanian electorate’s votes in total. The largest party on this part of the political scene is the Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR), the fourth strongest force in the Romanian parliament. Currently, it enjoys up to 20% support and is competing for the second position (after the Social Democratic Party – PSD) with the National Liberal Party (PNL), which until recently was the main right-wing representative in Romanian politics. At the same time, the popularity of the pro-Russian S.O.S. România party has surged, as it has gained about 6% of supporters in recent months.

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Crisis as an opportunity. A new stage in EU-Central Asia relations

Author(s): Marcin Popławski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; Ukraine; European Union

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has changed the European Union’s approach to Central Asia (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan). Over the last two years, it has become more important for the EU to maintain this region’s stability and harness its potential in energy and transportation. During this period, both sides have developed a model of regular political contacts at the highest level, updated their strategy for cooperation and launched new economic projects. These moves have been reinforced by complementary steps of the EU’s individual member states, mainly Germany and France. EU-Central Asia relations have been deepening despite the EU’s consistent criticism of the authoritarian nature of Central Asian governments.

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China’s European bridgehead. Hungary’s dangerous relationship with Beijing

Author(s): Ilona Gizińska,Paulina Uznańska / Language(s): English

Keywords: European Union; China

As the European Union tightens its stance towards China while the latter continues its expansion in the e-mobility sector, Chinese-Hungarian relations have gained new momentum. After a decade of difficulties in implementing joint infrastructural projects, new investments by Chinese giants such as CATL and BYD are set to turn Hungary into a manufacturing hub for Chinese electric vehicles in Europe and one of the world’s leading producers of lithium-ion batteries. Hungary is also ready to deepen its economic relations with China despite the de-risking policy that the European Commission has advocated.

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A holy war. The Russian Orthodox Church blesses the war against the West

Author(s): Katarzyna Chawryło (Jarzyńska) / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russian Orthodox Church; Russia

Representatives of the Russian Orthodox Church (ROC) have supported the war and justified Russia’s aggressive policy since the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine. There have been very few voices criticising the invasion among the clergy, and any such instances of criticism have been consistently suppressed due to censorship within the church and the state. Over the past few weeks, the ROC’s position has become even more unequivocal and radical. On 27 March, the World Russian People’s Council (Всемирный Русский Народный Собор), an organisation associated with the ROC and chaired by Patriarch Kirill, published a policy paper in which the war in Ukraine was called a “holy war”. The document identified the “West immersed in Satanism” as the main enemy of Russia and the Russian people and one which poses a threat not only to them but also to the entire Russian civilisation and Christian religion, from which it (the West) has turned away.

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Facing another Zeitenwende. How Germany could react to a possible victory for Trump

Author(s): Lidia Gibadło / Language(s): English

Keywords: Donald Trump; Bundeswehr; Germany

The news that Donald Trump is almost certain to be the Republican Party’s presumptive presidential nominee has sparked a debate in Germany about the country’s future cooperation with the US. At present, concern about sustaining American military engagement in Europe, including the continuation of aid to Ukraine, is the predominant topic in this debate. However, there are more challenges to come: Germany is also worried that the US will start criticising it again for its trade surpluses and underinvestment in the Bundeswehr.

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Unequal competition. The consequences of the liberalisation of EU–Ukraine road carriage for Central Europe

Author(s): Konrad Popławski / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU; Ukraine

An agreement between the EU and Ukraine on the partial liberalisation of the carriage of freight by road, which was signed in June 2022, has caused a major transformation of this market. On the one hand, it accelerated the Ukrainian economy’s shift towards the West, which resulted in an increase in Ukraine’s trade with the EU. On the other hand, it contributed to a rapid rise in the quantity of the bilateral carriage of freight by road carried out by Ukrainian freight forwarders. This, in turn, affected the segment of Central European transport companies, which concentrated on handling trade with Eastern European countries.

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Turkey and the European Union: in a maze of disputes

Author(s): Adam Michalski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Turkey; EU

Turkey has been a political challenge for the EU for more than a decade now. This stems from the widening gap between them caused by factors such as the evolution of the Turkish political model and its approach to international conflicts. As a consequence, the process of Ankara’s integration with the EU has remained frozen for years; successive reports from the European Commission evaluating its progress in the enlargement process have been strongly critical, which has only aggravated the existing disputes.

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Islamic State-Khorasan: global jihad’s new front

Author(s): Krzysztof Strachota / Language(s): English

Keywords: State-Khorasan; Krasnogorsk; post-Soviet Central Asian states

The attack on the Crocus City Hall in Krasnogorsk on 22 March which claimed the lives of 139 individuals was another spectacular terrorist attack carried out by Islamic State-Khorasan (ISIS-K) in recent months. The previous attacks happened in Iran, Turkey and other countries, while those planned in Germany, Sweden and other locations were thwarted. These developments indicate that the organisation has modified its strategy, which until recently had focused on Afghanistan. They also suggest that ISIS-K has major potential for generating threats. A unique feature of the present situation is the rapid increase in the participation of citizens of post-Soviet Central Asian states (mainly Tajikistan). However this mainly results from circumstances within Russia itself, which foster radicalisation. The risk of new attacks prepared or inspired by ISIS-K should be viewed as high.

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Carbon contracts for difference: Germany’s new instrument to decarbonise its industry

Author(s): Michał Kędzierski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Germany; decarbonisation

Germany has launched the implementation of a new, innovative programme to support the decarbonisation of its energy-intensive industries. The use of the so-called carbon contracts for difference will, for the first time, make it possible to subsidise not only investments in new installations but also the current operational costs, as the state intends to cover the difference between the costs of conventional and low-carbon energy production until the latter becomes more profitable. In line with Berlin’s concept, this decision is expected to bring a breakthrough in the decarbonisation of its industry, and also to enable German companies to gain competitive advantage, collect know-how, and improve & commercialise new technologies which are viewed as future-proof.

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Putin’s spectacle: the Soviet-style presidential ‘election’

Author(s): Maria Domańska,Piotr Żochowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; Vladimir Putin

The presidential pseudo-election on 15–17 March was orchestrated to be an unequivocal triumph for Vladimir Putin, and as proof of allegedly overwhelming public support for his policies, including the ongoing invasion of Ukraine. The authorities employed methods of manipulating and falsifying the results on an unprecedented scale, including compelling people to participate in completely opaque online voting. The record-high official result for Putin (87.3%) and turnout (77.4%), reportedly the highest in the Russian Federation’s history, are entirely unreliable. However, such results are expected to give the president carte blanche to continue his dictatorial rule – most likely for life.

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The EU’s ambivalent neighbours. Brussels on the South Caucasus

Author(s): Wojciech Górecki / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU; Brussels; South Caucasus

During the current terms of office of the European Commission and the President of the European Council, both of which end in 2024, the EU has stepped up its activities in the South Caucasus in an unprecedented manner. It has become involved in the political infighting in Georgia and in mediation between Armenia and Azerbaijan, and enhanced its economic relations with the latter by developing various transport projects. On the one hand, its increased activity has come as a response to the developments in and around the region. On the other, the actions it has taken are consistent with its strategic policy objective of strengthening the former Soviet states and expanding the zone of stability in its own neighbourhood. The head of the European Council Charles Michel has played a major role in animating the EU’s policy by personally participating in many of its initiatives. The granting of candidate status to Georgia marked the beginning of a qualitatively new stage in the EU’s presence in the region, even if this country is extremely unlikely to join the EU anytime soon.

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A German house. Controversy over commemoration of the Polish victims of the Second World War

Author(s): Kamil Frymark,Anna Kwiatkowska / Language(s): English

Keywords: German-Polish House; Germany; Poland

Commissioned by the German state, a German-Polish House is to be built in Berlin. This concept is the result of a debate lasting several years about whether it would be legitimate for the German capital to see the creation of a monument to the victims of crimes perpetrated against the Polish nation during the Second World War. In line with the currently valid concept, the initiative will be based on three main elements: commemoration (creation of an ‘artistic element’), the construction of a museum housing a permanent exhibition and temporary displays, and educational projects. The substantive aspect will focus on the Nazi German aggression against Poland and its brutal occupation in 1939–45. The project will be carried out by two German institutions: the Foundation of the Memorial to the Murdered Jews of Europe, which prepared the House’s concept, and the German Institute of Polish Affairs, which is responsible for the initiative’s operational aspect and the preparation of educational programmes. Political supervision of the project is carried out by the Federal Chancellery represented by Secretary of State Claudia Roth (the Greens).

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Unplugged. The uncertain future of electromobility in Germany

Author(s): Michał Kędzierski / Language(s): English

Keywords: German electric car market; electromobility

The German electric car market has seen a rapid growth over the past few years, with the country becoming the undisputed electromobility leader in Europe. This success has largely been possible thanks to generous subsidies for electric vehicle purchases. However, the German government’s sudden decision in December 2023 to end the subsidy programme has cast doubt on the further development of electromobility in this country. Both the industry itself and experts anticipate that this decision will have a negative impact on sales in this market sector for up to two years.

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25 years of Poland in NATO: personal reflections on the Polish path to the Alliance, including lessons for today

Author(s): Robert Pszczel / Language(s): English

Keywords: Poland; NATO

On 12 March 1999, after years of active diplomatic lobbying, Poland joined the ranks of NATO, the transatlantic club renowned for its unique collective defence guarantees. This process yielded success relatively quickly, even though the outcome was not a foregone conclusion, given the variety of internal and external challenges that Poland faced at that time.The foundation of that success was bipartisan support for membership, which was reflected in the programmes of successive governments, as well as the consistent and effective effort of diplomats, military personnel and experts. Poland undertook considerable work to align with Alliance standards, fully leveraging the opportunities presented by the new partnership frameworks. The constructive approach to regional cooperation and active participation in international forums were also of significant importance. These efforts helped Poland to provide appropriate responses to the evolving views of the allied member states, especially regarding the perception of Russia, Germany’s stance on enlargement, and the consequences of the Balkan wars.Examining how Poland joined the Alliance can offer insights into the country’s current strategy and its role within NATO. Additionally, many of Poland’s experiences from that time remain relevant, and could serve as an inspiration for other countries aspiring to join the Alliance today.

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The effect of the sanctions: the Russian LNG sector’s problems

Author(s): Filip Rudnik / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russian LNG sector

The successive moves to tighten the Western sanctions regime targeting the Russian LNG sector have aggravated the problems affecting it as it faces major difficulties which are jeopardising its further development. The technology embargo and other restrictions have resulted in delays in the construction of new liquefaction installations and in the multiplication of challenges regarding logistics and funding. The sanctions are also generating additional costs for the state and reducing its gas revenues.

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Publisher: OSW Ośrodek Studiów Wschodnich im. Marka Karpia

Budanov’s sanctions. The consequences of Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries

The Israeli offensive in Rafah against the backdrop of a humanitarian disaster

On the trail of the grey wolf: pan-Turkism in Turkey’s foreign policy

On the warpath: the development and modernisation of the Baltic states’ armed forces

Germany’s port strategy: a disappointing response to the crisis

A shift further to the right. Radical parties are gaining popularity in Romania

Crisis as an opportunity. A new stage in EU-Central Asia relations

China’s European bridgehead. Hungary’s dangerous relationship with Beijing

A holy war. The Russian Orthodox Church blesses the war against the West

Facing another Zeitenwende. How Germany could react to a possible victory for Trump

Unequal competition. The consequences of the liberalisation of EU–Ukraine road carriage for Central Europe

Turkey and the European Union: in a maze of disputes

Islamic State-Khorasan: global jihad’s new front

Carbon contracts for difference: Germany’s new instrument to decarbonise its industry

Putin’s spectacle: the Soviet-style presidential ‘election’

The EU’s ambivalent neighbours. Brussels on the South Caucasus

A German house. Controversy over commemoration of the Polish victims of the Second World War

Unplugged. The uncertain future of electromobility in Germany

25 years of Poland in NATO: personal reflections on the Polish path to the Alliance, including lessons for today

The effect of the sanctions: the Russian LNG sector’s problems